Stock Screen: Analyst Darlings

By this time, readers should be well-acquainted with my utter disdain for mainstream chatter and the pundits who peddle it. Yet it is also important not to let inherent biases blind us to opportunities. Even as I despise Wall Street and their endless, self-serving babble, analysts can be useful. This week's screen is based on my attempt to find some use in this muck.

In the past, I've run contrarian screens based on analyst sell signals; this time, I decided to look at strong buys. Most analysts love growth and I love cheap so only PEG ratios under 1.0 were included. To narrow the field, I came back to my tried and true metrics of strong free cash flow and good yields. Here's the full criteria for the screen:

  • (% Analysts Give Highest Rating >= 80)
  • and (Free Cash Flow / Market Cap % >= 10)
  • and (PEG Ratio <= 1)
  • and (Dividend Yield % > 0)

The screen yielded the following names:

  • Aceto Corporation (ACET)
  • American Greetings Corporation (AM)
  • Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)
  • Ennis, Inc. (EBF)
  • Jinpan International Limited (JST)
  • KMG Chemicals Inc (KMGB)
  • Multi-Color Corporation (LABL)
  • P. H. Glatfelter Company (GLT)
  • R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company (RRD)
  • R.G. Barry Corporation (DFZ)
  • Red Back Mining Inc. (RBIFF.PK)
  • Stepan Company (SCL)
  • OAO "Vympel-Kommunikatsii" (VIP)
  • Wyndham Worldwide Corporation (WYN)

View stock screen results in spreadsheet format with valuation metrics. With the powerful rally we've experienced, it surprises no one that none of these names are low-hanging, no-brainer stocks. With the market fairly/over-valued, we are going to have to dig in some far corners to find good value. As such, many of these stocks are tiny, with only 3 of the 14 names sporting market caps over $1B. The screening software gave little detail on the buy ratings so it is possible or likely that most of these stocks have only one or two analysts following the company. The flipside is many of these names seem quite attractive as possible opportunities, perhaps in part due to lack of coverage.

Remember this screen is only a jumping point. As always, further research is needed before devoting capital to any of these stocks, especially given the volatile business conditions of small-cap companies.

Disclosure: No positions

World markets close mixed as rally fades, Spanish 10-year yields rise

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- After a big rally early Monday, global markets fell to a mixed close. Yields on Spanish debt climbed above the troublesome 6% level, as optimism about Spain's bailout request faded.

European markets were mixed, with London's FTSE (UKX) down 0.1%, the DAX (DAX) in Frankfurt adding 0.5%, and the CAC 40 (CAC40) in Paris losing 0.04%.

After rising as much as 2% earlier in the day, the Ibex 35 index in Madrid closed down 0.5%.

In Asian trading, Tokyo's Nikkei (N225) ended up 2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HSI) rose 2.4% and the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) gained 1.1%.

World markets opened sharply higher following an announcement Saturday that Spain will seek aid from the European Union to bolster its troubled banks. But the gains dissipated in the early afternoon as investors warned that initial optimism in financial markets could be short-lived.

"Initial euphoria after Spain announced that it will request outside funding to help recapitalize its banking system has faded," said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital.

Bond yields in Spain and Italy rose as investors started to fear another downgrade of Spanish debt after Fitch cut Spain's credit rating last week. The yield on the 10-year Spanish bond rose to 6.5%, and the Italian 10-year bond hit 6%.

The euro rose against the dollar and the yen.

Greece is also in focus this week ahead of elections on Sunday. The concern is that anti-austerity political parties will win enough seats in parliament to derail the bailout program Greece secured earlier this year.

The runoff is being viewed as a pivotal moment that could determine if Greece remains a member of the euro currency union or not.

Stocks: Spain and China could help

In China, the government issued several reports that seemed to give hope that further stimulus to the economy could be forthcoming. On Saturday, the government said inflation eased to a 3% annual rate in May, the fourth straight month of prices below 4%.

On Sunday, the government said the May trade surplus was $18.7 billion, boosted by both record imports and exports.

Oil rose nearly a dollar a barrel to just above $85.

U.S. markets are coming off their best week of 2012. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 3.6%, the S&P 500 index (SPX) gained 3.5% and the Nasdaq composite index (COMP) was 3.9% higher. On Monday, all three indexes opened higher, following Europe's rally, but slipped in midday trading.  

Has ATRION Made You Any Fast Money?

It takes money to make money. Most investors know that, but with business media so focused on the "how much," very few investors bother to ask, "How fast?"

When judging a company's prospects, how quickly it turns cash outflows into cash inflows can be just as important as how much profit it's booking in the accounting fantasy world we call "earnings." This is one of the first metrics I check when I'm hunting for the market's best stocks. Today, we'll see how it applies to ATRION (Nasdaq: ATRI  ) .

Let's break this down
In this series, we measure how swiftly a company turns cash into goods or services and back into cash. We'll use a quick, relatively foolproof tool known as the cash conversion cycle, or CCC for short.

Why does the CCC matter? The less time it takes a firm to convert outgoing cash into incoming cash, the more powerful and flexible its profit engine is. The less money tied up in inventory and accounts receivable, the more available to grow the company, pay investors, or both.

To calculate the cash conversion cycle, add days inventory outstanding to days sales outstanding, then subtract days payable outstanding. Like golf, the lower your score here, the better. The CCC figure for ATRION for the trailing 12 months is 133.2.

For younger, fast-growth companies, the CCC can give you valuable insight into the sustainability of that growth. A company that's taking longer to make cash may need to tap financing to keep its momentum. For older, mature companies, the CCC can tell you how well the company is managed. Firms that begin to lose control of the CCC may be losing their clout with their suppliers (who might be demanding stricter payment terms) and customers (who might be demanding more generous terms). This can sometimes be an important signal of future distress -- one most investors are likely to miss.

In this series, I'm most interested in comparing a company's CCC to its prior performance. Here's where I believe all investors need to become trend-watchers. Sure, there may be legitimate reasons for an increase in the CCC, but all things being equal, I want to see this number stay steady or move downward over time.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Because of the seasonality in some businesses, the CCC for the TTM period may not be strictly comparable to the fiscal-year periods shown in the chart. Even the steadiest-looking businesses on an annual basis will experience some quarterly fluctuations in the CCC. To get an understanding of the usual ebb and flow at ATRION, consult the quarterly-period chart below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

On a 12-month basis, the trend at ATRION looks good. At 133.2 days, it is 12.1 days better than the five-year average of 145.3 days. The biggest contributor to that improvement was DPO, which improved 38.6 days compared to the five-year average. That was partially offset by a 20.6-day increase in DIO.

Considering the numbers on a quarterly basis, the CCC trend at ATRION looks OK. At 138.7 days, it is little changed from the average of the past eight quarters. Investors will want to keep an eye on this for the future to make sure it doesn't stray too far in the wrong direction. With quarterly CCC doing worse than average and the latest 12-month CCC coming in better, ATRION gets a mixed review in this cash-conversion checkup.

Though the CCC can take a little work to calculate, it's definitely worth watching every quarter. You'll be better informed about potential problems, and you'll improve your odds of finding underappreciated home run stocks.

Looking for alternatives to ATRION? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add ATRION to My Watchlist.

A Bet on the Financials Could Bank You 67% Profits

The Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF) offers a diversified way to invest in the banking sector. The fund's top 10 holdings include Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFX) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), which make up more than 20% of its valuation.

There is plenty of upside potential for the banking exchange-traded fund (ETF). A halfway retracement to the 2007 highs from the 2009 lows targets an objective of $22, a 41% gain from current levels. A nearly year-long trading range between $14 and $16 has seen volatility decline to 52-week lows in a bullish sign of an impending move, and offers a more conservative first breakout target of $18. Only a close below the $14 support level on a weekly basis would negate the bullish trend.

The $18 target is 15% higher than current prices, but traders who use a stock substitution strategy could make close to 70% returns on a move to that level.

One major advantage of using long call options rather than buying shares is putting up much less to control 100 shares -- that's the power of leverage. But with all of the potential strike and expiration combinations, choosing an option can be a daunting task.

Simply put, you want to buy a high-probability option that has enough time to be right, so there are two rules traders should follow:

Rule One: Choose an option with 70%-plus probability
Delta is a measurement of how well an option follows the movement in the underlying security. It is important to buy options that pay off from a modest price move in the stock or ETF rather than those that only make money on the infrequent price explosion.  

Any trade has a 50/50 chance of success. Buying in-the-money options increases that probability. Delta also approximates the odds that the option will be in the money at expiration. In-the-money options are more expensive, but they're worth it, as your chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, out-of-the-money options that rarely pay off.

For example, with XLF trading at about $15.65 at the time of this writing, an in-the-money $13 strike call currently has $2.65 in real or intrinsic value. The remainder of any premium is the time value of the option.

Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need -- at least three to six months -- for the trade to develop
Time is an investor's greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks. Traders often do not buy enough time for the trade to achieve profitable results. Nothing is more frustrating than being right about a move only after the option has expired.

I recommend the XLF June 13 Calls at $3 or less.

A close below $14 in XLF on a weekly basis or the loss of half of the option premium would trigger an exit. If you do not use a stop, the maximum loss is still limited to the $3,000 or less paid per option contract. The upside, on the other hand, is unlimited. And the June options give the bull trend seven months to develop.

This trade breaks even at $16 ($12 strike plus $3 option premium). That is less than $1 above XLF's current price. If shares hit the conservative breakout target of $18, then the option would deliver a gain of almost 70%.

> Buy XLF June 13 Calls at $3 or less. Set stop-loss at $1.50. Set initial price target at $5 for a potential 67% gain in seven months.

Swedish Central Bank Cuts Key Rate

The Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, reduced its main interest rate, according to a statement from the bank.The repo rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 1%, in a move generally expected by economists.

In its statement, the Riksbank said the cut was made due to weak domestic household consumption, rising unemployment, and a lack of inflationary pressures. In terms of the latter, the country is still some distance away from the bank's upper target of 2%.

The bank also said in its statement that the economic sluggishness of the euro area is having an impact on Sweden.�The repo rate is expected to remain around the newest low level for the coming year.
The rate cut is the third enacted by the Riksbank this year.

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10 Stocks to Watch for Earnings

These 10 companies from varied industries like basic materials, technology, telecom and consumer goods and services sector are due to release their quarterly earnings next week. Analysts estimate these stocks have upside in the range of 7% to 63% with 66% of analysts issuing buy ratings, on average. Some stocks also have attractive dividend yields.

The stocks are listed based on their earnings release date. 10. Check Point Software Technologies(CHKP) develops technologies to secure communications and transactions over the Internet. It is involved in developing, marketing and supporting a range of software, as well as combined hardware and software products and services for information technology security. The company is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2011 earnings on Jan. 17. As per the consensus estimates of analysts polled by Bloomberg, CHKP is likely to report sales of $356 million compared to $318.5 million in the same quarter prior fiscal year. Net income is estimated at $173.4 million, or 81 cents per share, as against $156.7 million, or 73 cents per share, in the 2010 fourth quarter. EBITDA for the quarter is seen rising by 20% to $212.8 million. Gross margin is seen expanding to 88.19% from 87.80%. Follow TheStreet on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.Of the 28 analysts covering the stock, 68% recommend a buy, while the remaining suggest a hold. There are no sell ratings on the stock. Analysts polled by Bloomberg foresee the stock gaining an average 25.5% to $65.69 in the upcoming 12 months.

9. 8x8(EGHT) develops and markets Web-based telecommunications services. The company is scheduled to report its fiscal 2012 third-quarter results on Jan. 18.

As per the consensus estimates of analysts polled by Bloomberg, the company is likely to report net income of $2.4 million on $22.1 million sales, compared to net income of $1.5 on $17.8 million sales recorded in the 2010 third quarter. Meanwhile, 8x8 is likely to report earnings per share of 3 cents, compared to 2 cents recorded in the 2011 third quarter. EBITDA for the quarter is seen rising by 61% to $2.9 million, while operating profit is estimated to increase by 39% to $1.98 million. Of the five analysts covering the stock, 80% recommend a buy. Analysts polled by Bloomberg foresee the stock gaining an average 62.8% to $5.58 in the upcoming 12 months.

8. F5 Networks(FFIV) is a provider of networking, security and data storage software. It sells its products through a range of channels, including distributors, value-added resellers and systems integrators. The company is due to publish its fiscal 2012 first-quarter results on Jan. 18. As per the consensus estimates of analysts polled by Bloomberg, the company is likely to report net income of $81.8 million on sales of $319.06 million, compared to net income of $72.2 on sales of $268.93 million recorded during the 2011 first quarter. F5 Networks is likely to report earnings per share of $1.01 during the quarter, compared to 88 cents in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin is seen expanding to 82.59% from 81.79% earlier. Return on equity is seen increasing to 23.98% from 18.46%, while return on assets is estimated to expand to 18.63% from 13.58% in the prior year quarter.Of the 35 analysts covering the stock, 71% recommend a buy, while the remaining suggest a hold. There are no sell ratings on the stock. Analysts polled by Bloomberg foresee the stock gaining an average 7.4% to $119.00 in the upcoming 12 months.

7. eBay(EBAY) is an online auction and sales platform, operating a range of Web sites. It generates revenue in the form of net transaction revenue, marketing services and other revenue. The company is due to publish its fourth-quarter fiscal 2011 results on Jan. 18. Analysts polled by Bloomberg, foresee the company reporting net income of $744.9 million on sales of $3.32 billion, higher than net income of $683.8 million on $2.49 billion sales recorded during the 2010 fourth quarter. Earnings per share are seen increasing to 57 cents during the quarter from 52 cents. Operating profit and EBITDA during the quarter is estimated to increase by 53% and 37%, respectively. Cash flow per share is seen increasing by 9% to 71 cents. Of the 35 analysts covering the stock, 57% recommend a buy, while 40% suggest a hold. Analysts polled by Bloomberg foresee the stock gaining an average 23.9% to $39.14 in the upcoming 12 months.

6. Skyworks Solutions(SWKS), offers products in cellular handsets and analog semiconductors. The company is due to release its fiscal 2012 first-quarter earnings on Jan. 19. The company is likely to report net income of $94.6 million on sales of $389.56 million, compared to net income of $84.69 million on sales of $335.12 million recorded during the first quarter of fiscal 2011, as per the consensus estimates of analysts polled by Bloomberg. For the quarter, Skyworks is likely to report earnings of 50 cents per share, compared to earnings of 45 cents in the year-ago quarter. Cash flow per share is seen increasing to 51 cents from 36 cents in the first quarter of fiscal 2011. EBITDA and operating profit are seen up 17% and 24%, respectively. Of the 20 analysts covering the stock, 70% recommend a buy, while the remaining suggest a hold. There are no sell ratings on the stock. Analysts polled by Bloomberg foresee the stock gaining an average 56.7% to $28.17 in the upcoming 12 months.

5. PPG Industries(PPG) is a producer and supplier of protective and decorative coatings, optical and specialty materials, commodity chemicals, and glass. The company is due to release its 2011 fourth-quarter results on Jan. 19. As per the consensus estimate of analysts polled by Bloomberg, PPG is seen recording sales of $3.50 billion for the 2011 fourth quarter, compared to $3.38 billion in the same quarter prior fiscal. Net income for the quarter is estimated at $198.6 million, or $1.26 per share. EBITDA and operating profit are seen rising by 9% and 13%, respectively. Gross margin is expected up 39.03% from 34.77% earlier. Currently, the company is trading at a dividend yield of 2.5%. Dividend per share for the quarter is estimated to increase to 57 cents from 55 cents in the prior fiscal year quarter. Also, cash flow per share is pegged at $2.47. Of the 16 analysts covering the stock, 44% recommend a buy, while the rest suggest a hold. There are no sell ratings on the stock. Analysts polled by Bloomberg foresee the stock gaining an average 7.4% to $94.55 in the upcoming 12 months.

4. Johnson Controls(JCI) is a provider of automotive interiors. Through subsidiaries it also provides technical services, energy management consulting and operations of real estate portfolios for the non-residential buildings market. The company is due to release its fiscal 2012 first quarter results on Jan. 19. As per analysts' consensus estimates polled by Bloomberg, Johnson Controls is likely to report net income of $429.8 million on sales of $10.5 billion, compared to net income of $347 million on sales of $9.54 billion recorded during the 2011 first quarter. Johnson is likely to report earnings of 62 cents per share, compared to earnings of 55 cents per share earlier. Gross margin is seen expanding to 15.29% from 14.83% earlier. Currently, the company is trading at a dividend yield of 1.8%. Dividend per share is estimated to come in at 16 cents. Meanwhile, cash flow per share is foreseen to increase to 80 cents from 16 cents recorded in the first quarter fiscal 2011. Of the 31 analysts covering the stock, 74% recommend a buy, while 23% suggest a hold. Analysts polled by Bloomberg foresee the stock gaining an average 18.9% to $41.74 in the upcoming 12 months.

3. Google(GOOG) has its major focus on improving the way people connect with information. It's major revenue source is online advertising. The company is scheduled to release its 2011 fourth-quarter results on Jan. 19. As per the consensus estimates of analysts polled by Bloomberg, the company is likely to report net income of $3.45 billion on sales of $8.4 billion, compared to net income of $2.85 billion on sales of $6.4 billion recorded in the 2010 fourth quarter. For the quarter, Google is likely to report earnings per share of $10.48 per share, up from $8.75 in the earlier quarter. Operating profit and EBITDA is seen increasing by 23% and 35%, respectively. Gross margin is seen expanding to 85.86% from 65.09%. Additionally, cash flow per share is seen rising to $12.24 from $11.02. Of the 41 analysts covering the stock, 85% recommend a buy, while the remaining suggest a hold. There are no sell ratings on the stock. Analysts polled by Bloomberg foresee the stock gaining an average 16.5% to $733.47 in the upcoming 12 months.

2. International Business Machines(IBM), a global information technology company with products and services in software, hardware and financing. The company is due to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2011 results on Jan 19. As per the consensus estimates of analysts polled by Bloomberg, IBM is likely to report net income of $5.5 billion on sales of $29.74 billion, compared to net income of $5.26 billion on sales of $29.02 billion recorded earlier. Earnings per share are seen rising to $4.62 from $4.18 earlier. EBITDA and operating profit are seen rising by 7% and 8%, respectively during the quarter. Currently, the company is trading at a dividend yield of 1.6%. Dividend per share is seen rising to 74 cents from 65 cents earlier. Cash flow per share is seen coming in at $5.20 for the quarter. Of the 31 analysts covering the stock, 48% recommend a buy, while 48% suggest a hold. Analysts polled by Bloomberg foresee the stock gaining an average 8.1% to $195.11 in the upcoming 12 months.

1. Microsoft(MSFT) develops, licenses and supports a range of software products and services. It is due to release its second-quarter fiscal 2012 results on Jan. 19. As per the consensus estimates of analysts polled by Bloomberg, the company is likely to report net income of $6.55 billion, or 77 cents per share. Sales are seen rising to $20.95 billion from $19.95 billion in the year-ago quarter. EBITDA for the quarter is seen increasing to $8.85 billion from $8.83 billion. Currently, the company is trading at a dividend yield of 2.4%. Dividend per share is estimated to increase to 20 cents from 16 cents paid in the second quarter of fiscal 2011. Cash flow per share is seen increasing to 74 cents during the quarter from 49 cents earlier. Of the 40 analysts covering the stock, 65% recommend a buy, while 33% suggest a hold. Analysts polled by Bloomberg foresee the stock gaining an average 9.6% to $30.68 in the upcoming 12 months. >To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

Avast: Making Tons of Money From Free Software

In 1988, researcher Pavel Baudi� wrote a program to kill a computer virus. Realizing it could be the foundation for a set of technologies, he teamed up with Eduard Kucera to create the ALWIL cooperative. But it wasn’t until a year later — after the Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia — that they could create a new company, Avast, that would be able to seek profits.

Since then, Avast has turned into one of the world�s top antivirus software operators. And yes, it wants to go public. The underwriters include UBS Investment Bank (NYSE:UBS) and Deutsche Bank Securities (NYSE:DB).

Avast�s business is based on the “freemium” model. That is, the company has a free version of its core software. Avast then generates revenues by cross-selling premium products.

Actually, Avast has the world�s most widely used consumer security software, with 142 million actively protected devices. The product is fairly comprehensive, helping with malicious threats like spyware, worms and malware. Avast gets 60% of new users through personal recommendations.

To remain competitive, Avast has been innovative in leveraging its user base. For example, a majority of its users opt into the CommunityIQ platform, which allows for the continuous updating of real-time threat data. The community also helps with technical support questions and even provides translations for new products.

During the first half of 2011, revenues have surged by 87.1% to $37.9 million, and free cash flow came to $30.2 million. No doubt, Avast has a juicy high-margin business.

The growth is likely to continue as viruses continue to be a problem. In fact, hackers are now starting to target social networks, smartphones and tablets.

So with its powerful freemium model and strong growth rate, Avast looks positioned for a successful IPO. But it may not be pubic for long. Avast would not be a surprise if a larger player — like Intel�s (NASDAQ:INTC) McAfee, Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC), Trend Micro or Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) — might decide to buy it.

Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog IPO Playbook, a site dedicated to the hottest news and rumors about initial public offerings. He is also the author of �All About Short Selling� and �All About Commodities.� Follow him on Twitter at @ttaulli. As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the aforementioned stocks.

Wal-Mart: High Value, Low Risk, Steady Dividend Growth

My last article was researching Abbott Labs (ABT). In that piece I defined a ruler stock, "as a well-known term that refers to equities where earnings, if plotted on a graph, form an upward sloping straight trend." In this article we shall investigate the merits of Wal-Mart (WMT), which is another ruler stock.

As defined by Yahoo finance profiles, "Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. The company's Walmart U.S. segment offers meat, produce, deli, bakery, dairy, frozen foods, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and floral and dry grocery; health and beauty aids, baby products, household chemicals,etc. It operates stores in the United States and Puerto Rico, as well as in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Japan, Mexico, Nicaragua, the United Kingdom, China, and India".

My favorite method of equity selection is focused on a compression of valuation during a long price consolidation, in which fundamental factors such as earnings and dividends continue to grow. The end result is excellent valuation. Wal-Mart has been locked in a wide trading range between the lower 40's to the lower 60's beginning in 2000. The table below details the growth in earnings and dividends over the last 10 years.

Fundamental Data

2000

2010

Percent Increase

Earnings per Share

$1.21

$3.66

202%

Annual Dividend

$.24

$1.46

508%

Earnings and dividends increased at very nice rates during this long consolidation. We can now view any effects of the growth on valuation measures. The present price earnings (PE) ratio is the lowest of the last 30 years. The dividend yield is trending higher into heretofore uncharted territory.

The current price of Wal-Mart shares trade today within cents of the close in 2000. As noted however, earnings and dividends increased 202% and 508%. Is this enough to warrant purchase? Is the yield high enough with the continued growth? Since 2005 the smallest increase in the annual dividend increase was 9% in 2008. The average increase over the last seven years is over 14%. However, the current yield is only 2.7%.

Is it a good buy? I tend to think it is. The low valuation has put a firm bottom underneath the shares that support current price. The bottom of the range is 42, which I do not see being tested without a new bear market. The next higher level of support lies in the 47-49 area. This area is possible but I lean toward thinking that this level will not be tested. My best guess is that the 51-52 level, a previous level of support, is the best buy range.

Conclusion: The long trading range over the last 10 years with the steady increase in earnings have compressed the PE down to historical lows. In addition, the steady rise in dividend payments has taken the yield to new highs. I believe the shares to be of high value, and low risk. It will be up to the individual investor to determine if the dividend yield is high enough to warrant purchase. For many, it does not attain their minimum yield goal. Further increases in the dividend comparable to the recent past would raise the yield to 5.2% in five years. That might be enough to jolt prices to new highs.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in WMT over the next 72 hours.

Opinion: Breaking the Gun Control Stalemate927 comments

In addition to causing horror and outrage, Friday's shooting deaths by Adam Lanza of 27 people, including 20 school children, in Sandy Hook, Conn., are already prompting calls for new gun laws. Supporters of gun control demand restrictions on ammunition magazines and bans on so-called assault weapons—semiautomatic versions of military firearms. Gun-rights advocates see another mass shooting in a "gun-free zone" and argue for expanding the places where individuals with valid permits may carry their weapons.

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A group shares a moment of silence at the entrance to Newton, Conn.'s Sandy Hook Elementary School, Dec. 15.

Neither proposal will accomplish much—except to alienate the other side. Those in favor of gun rights feel that gun-control advocates are using the deranged actions of a few as a pretext to erode the right to bear arms. Because crimes committed with assault weapons are rare, they correctly note that such bans will have little or no impact on crime.

Gun-control advocates, meanwhile, are completely frustrated with Congress's unwillingness to strengthen gun laws, despite the mounting body count over the years. For them, an assault-weapons ban is a first step toward bringing some rationality to this country's gun policy.

The result is stalemate. Gun-control supporters have not passed a major federal law since the 10-year freeze on assault weapons in 1994. Gun-rights advocates have not significantly rolled back existing federal restrictions on firearms since 1986.

This stalemate can be broken—but only if both sides retreat slightly instead of standing their ground.

In addition to guns, the common denominator in most of these mass shootings has been mental illness. Seung-Hui Cho (Virginia Tech), Jared Lee Loughner (Tucson, Ariz.), James Eagen Holmes (in the Aurora, Colo. theater), and now Adam Lanza all had significant mental health problems. As the country turns its attention to overhauling its health-care delivery system, we must discuss improving access and delivery of mental health care to those who need it. As part of this conversation, we need to update federal firearm laws as they relate to persons with mental illness—laws that currently are primitive and rooted in stereotypes.

Federal law generally prohibits the possession or acquisition of a firearm by a person "who has been adjudicated as a mental defective or who has been committed to a mental institution." Putting aside the offensive label and legal jargon, in simple terms this means that a person is prohibited for life from possessing firearms if the person has ever been: involuntarily committed to a mental institution, or found by a court to be a danger to himself or others, found not guilty of a crime by reason of insanity or incompetent to stand trial, or unable to manage his own affairs. It does not matter whether the person currently has a mental illness.

Federal law is both under- and over-inclusive. It is under-inclusive because plenty of people with severe mental illnesses escape the ban on possessing firearms—provided, for example, they have managed not to be formally committed to a mental institution, or found by a court to be incompetent or insane. The ban is over-inclusive because many people recover from mental illness and lead healthy and productive lives. A single involuntary commitment for a severe eating disorder at age 20 will preclude a person from possessing a hunting rifle for the rest of his life.

There is plenty of room to compromise on this issue, and in a way that may produce meaningful results. Both sides should continue to work together to update the "National Instant Check System." Gun dealers use this system to vet gun purchasers before transferring firearms. Unfortunately, despite a 2007 federal law that was supposed to mandate better reporting by states (passed in response to the Virginia Tech massacre), many states lag behind in reporting individuals who are barred from possessing firearms due to mental illness.

The lack of proper reporting by Virginia led to Seung-Hui Cho's firearm purchase, even though a judge had found Cho a danger to himself—a finding that made him ineligible to purchase firearms under federal law. Colorado's James Eagen Holmes purchased his weapons legally because he had not been formally committed despite his mental health problems. Although the information remains preliminary, Adam Lanza's mother may not have secured her guns from her son despite his apparent history of behavioral problems.

Gun-rights advocates should support efforts to strengthen the prohibition on possessing firearms by those who have mental illness. Many people with severe mental illness are too dangerous to entrust with firearms—regardless of whether they have been formally labeled under the current law as ineligible.

Mechanisms can be put in place to identify such people—and restrict their access to firearms, including expanding background checks to private sales, i.e., between individuals who are not in the business of selling firearms. Gun owners (especially close relatives of such persons, such as Adam Lanza's mother) should also be obligated to store unused firearms safely so that potentially dangerous persons and minor children do not gain easy access to them.

As for gun-control advocates, they should show more flexibility about restoring firearm rights for people who may have suffered from mental illness in the past but are no longer a danger. Instead of lobbying to expand the number of people permanently ineligible to possess any type of firearm, gun-control advocates should accept a risk-based approach.

Some patients may be permanently impaired, making them too much of a risk ever to trust with firearms. Others should be temporarily barred or restricted. But efforts to restrict the types of firearms possessed by law-abiding, healthy adults are counterproductive. They unnecessarily repel gun-rights advocates at a time when what America needs most is a united front.

A risk-based approach reflective of a person's present danger would leave law-abiding, mentally stable citizens free to pursue their hobbies. It also would modernize federal firearm laws by expanding the ability to remove firearms from those too unstable to possess them. The stalemate can be broken, but only if both sides exit their trenches.

Mr. Leider is a fellow at the University of Pennsylvania School of Law.

Apple Propping Up S&P Earnings, Says Barclays

This morning brings yet another installment of the Apple (AAPL) effect upon the broader market.

Barclays Capital‘s equity strategists Barry Knapp and ?Eric Slover write that Apple made up 15% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 12% rise this year, which they characterize as the stock “contributing over four times its weight in the index.”

The two also note that Apple has offset 40% of the year-to-date decline in the S&P’s 2012 projected EPS.

The authors see very few parallels for double-digit contribution to the index from a single stock, the closest precedent being Microsoft (MSFT) in the ’90s:

Over the past ~20 years, a double-digit contribution from a single stock (>10%) in a double-digit market return environment (>10%) is much less frequent. In fact, we have to look all the way back to 1999 to find other such observations (January/February 1999 and December 1999), when another tech giant, MSFT, was responsible for these large contributions.

This is not, of course, 1999, the authors note: “The S&P 500′s trailing PE ratio is ~14x, compared with ~27x in 1999, and AAPL’s trailing PE is ~17.5x, compared with MSFT’s ~70x in 1999.”

However, they do see “concentration risk” in Apple’s large effect.

Apple will have a disproportionate effect again in the current quarter’s earnings report for the Index, the authors expect. Stripping out Apple, probably the S&P is headed for a rather weak earnings report:

Earnings growth is estimated at just 1.4% y/y, and about zero excluding AAPL. It seems likely that results will wind up somewhat better than expected, given a post-recession median positive surprise ratio of ~70%. However, even tacking on last quarter’s ex-AAPL earnings surprise of 230bp, this quarter is setting up for 2% y/y growth, which would make this the worst growth rate since the recovery began.

The Barclays note is typical of a spate of recent reports indicating Apple’s outsized impact on the major indices. A similar report on Monday from Merrill Lynch equity strategist Dan Suzuki showed that Apple was singularly responsible for lifting average S&P 500 earnings above estimates in Q1.

Apple shares today are down $6.55, or 1%, at $611.07.

Fin

Jobs Get Snowed In

It’s the weather, they say. The loss of 36,000 jobs in last month’s nonfarm payroll count may have been a victim of the snow, the Labor Department advises with this morning’s release of the February employment report. The unemployment rate, at least, was unchanged last month, albeit at a high 9.7%.

What's the holdup on the recovery? "Severe winter weather in parts of the country may have affected payroll employment and hours," the government's press release advised. But lest anyone get the wrong idea, we're also told that, "it is not possible to quantify precisely the net impact of the winter storms on these measures."

The weather-is-to-blame view is persuasive for some economists. “Without the weather in February this would have been a month for jobs growth,” Ellen Zentner, a senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, told Bloomberg Television. “We’ve got positive jobs growth in there, we just can’t see it” because of the “weather effects,” she asserts.

Maybe we've been snow blinded, but The Economist's Free Exchange blogger this morning isn't quite so upbeat in reaction to today's employment report: "…a sideways movement in labor markets is a setback at this point. The economy must create over 100,000 jobs per month just to keep up with population growth, and it should be averaging monthly payroll increases of over 250,000 to reduce the unemployment rate at the same pace as in the first year of the 1983 recovery."

Upbeat or not, all of this leaves just one choice: Hoping for a spring thaw with the March numbers. Meanwhile, if we take the February report at face value, we're looking at a familiar trend in the employment picture: low-level losses and the tantalizing possibility that gains are near. But not yet. Damn those winter storms. (Click to enlarge)

Save for last November's 64,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls, 25 of the last 26 months have shed jobs. The red ink for nonfarm payrolls now stands at 8.4 million lost jobs, according to the Labor Department.

As for February, the losses were relatively light, compared with the carnage in the first half of 2009, but that's increasingly a thin reed for those trying to rationalize the numbers du jour as the moment of rebound slips ever forward.

At best, it was a mixed bag for last month's employment changes among the various subgroups that comprise the total nonfarm payroll number. Construction suffered the biggest hit, unsurprisingly, given the weather, losing 64,000 positions. The services sector almost but not quite picked up the slack, posting a 42,000 rise. But that masked the negative trend within the services sector last month, with one dubious exception. Indeed, the big winner among services firms in February came in temporary help services, which added nearly 48,000 jobs last month. Every bit of gain helps, of course, but that's not exactly the corner of the economy where expansion breeds bullish sentiment at this point.

Overall, there's a growing risk that the labor market will languish for an extended period. The big losses, perhaps any loss in nonfarm payrolls is behind us. But that's not good enough to begin the hard work of laying the foundation for even modest economic growth in the near term. More than two years after the Great Recession began, the labor market is still suffering, albeit suffering due to a lack of job creation. It's not obvious that this risk is factored into the crowd's sentiment, but another month or two of moving sideways in the labor market and there may be hell to pay.

Meantime, we'll be watching the weather forecasts. March has come in like a lamb and so the month may go out with a meteorological panthera leo.

Rivlin: Time Is Running Out to Repair Economy

President Obama, right, with Erskine Bowles, far left, and Alan Simpson. One critic faults Obama for not taking up the economic policies the two proposed. (Photo: AP)

This presidential race is sure to draw sharp divisions on budgetary questions in 2012, but prominent policymakers are hoping a flickering of bipartisanship may keep alight the flame of cross-party cooperation long enough to stave off national financial ruin.

In a Brookings Institution blogpost, former Clinton administration budget director Alice Rivlin laments the missed opportunities of the past year, the unlikelihood of consensus in the current election year and the narrow window of time to reach compromise in 2013.

“Whatever happens in the 2012 election, big decisions on taxes and entitlements will still require bipartisan compromise,” writes Rivlin, who co-chaired with Pete Domenici the Debt Reduction Task Force sponsored by the Bipartisan Policy Center. “A re-elected President [Barack] Obama or a new president, working with a new Congress may be able to forge a solution early in 2013, but time is running out. A punishing market reaction to American political dysfunction could turn the missed opportunities of 2011 into prolonged economic failure.”

In her blogpost, Rivlin, who also served on Obama’s bipartisan commission chaired by Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles, criticizes the president for failing to champion either commission’s recommendations after they reported on schedule and substantially agreed with each other; she also condemns Republican “intransigence.”

Both commissions proposed slowing entitlement growth, capping discretionary spending and lowering rates on individual and corporate income taxes, while broadening their bases to increase revenue. Yet the president, she writes, “made the tactical error of focusing solely on job creation, which made his jobs bill a partisan Democratic proposal instead of an element in a bipartisan plan for growth and deficit reduction. The Republicans, she adds, “were willing to risk closing the government and defaulting on the nation’s debt in their zeal to shrink the public sector.”

Rivlin’s downbeat lament is just one of many voices of authority urgently seeking to maintain bipartisan momentum amid a divisive year of campaigning. Her deficit cutting commission colleagues Alan Simpson (former Republican senator of Wyoming) and Erskine Bowles (former White House chief of staff to President Bill Clinton), quoted in The Wall Street Journal, offered the hope that looming tax expirations will bring about needed policy compromises:

"We face the expiration of the 2001/2003 tax cuts, automatic cuts in defense and domestic spending on Jan. 1, 2013, and the likely need for another increase in the debt limit," they are quoted as saying. "The need to deal with those issues– combined with the public reaction to the debt-limit fiasco and the sad failure of the supercommittee, and the growing support among members of Congress in both parties to craft a comprehensive fiscal plan along the lines of our proposal–could well lead to an agreement on a bold, smart, bipartisan plan to put our nation on an honest, sensible, sustainable fiscal course."

Beyond the realm of eminent elder statesmen and their political prayers, there are some inklings of bipartisanship among those who introduce and legislation. House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., introduced a bold proposal for market-based reform of Medicare. The plan has been variously praised and condemned but the fact that they introduced a policy matter when most are consumed with political matters–and did so on a bipartisan basis–is noteworthy.

Also making news, a small bipartisan group of lawmakers, numbering 14 at present, are holding breakfast meetings and forging ties that have already led to joint legislation carrying more weight than National Apple Pie Day. The group, for example, has sponsored a bill that would enable U.S. companies to repatriate overseas profits at a lower tax rate if those funds are used to invest in the U.S. economy.

SeaDrill Limited Goes Red

SeaDrill Limited (NYSE: SDRL  ) reported earnings on Feb. 29. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), SeaDrill Limited beat slightly on revenues and missed expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue shrank and GAAP earnings per share dropped to a loss.

Gross margins increased, operating margins improved, net margins dropped.

Revenue details
SeaDrill Limited reported revenue of $1.06 billion. The 20 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ expected a top line of $1.04 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 6.8% lower than the prior-year quarter's $1.12 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at -$0.23. The nine earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.71 per share. GAAP EPS were -$0.23 for Q4 compared to $0.42 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 61.0%, 370 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 42.3%, 210 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -10.5%, 3,320 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $1.05 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.73.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $4.48 billion. The average EPS estimate is $3.20.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a five-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 670 members out of 674 rating the stock outperform, and six members rating it underperform. Among 145 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 143 give SeaDrill Limited a green thumbs-up, and two give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on SeaDrill Limited is hold, with an average price target of $38.70.

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LOW, HD Point to DIY Comeback

Earnings and sales from clothing and department stores have been merely okay, and management is reluctant to look ahead with much positive feeling about the consumer spending. This morning’s earnings report from Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) follows that pattern. Tomorrow we’ll get earnings from Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT), the industry leaders in home improvement and retailing, respectively.

Lowe’s posted second quarter earnings of $832 million, or diluted EPS of $0.58, up from $759 million in profits and diluted EPS of $0.51 in the second quarter of 2009. Sales were up 3.7%, to $14.4 billion. Analysts had been expecting EPS of $0.59 and revenue of $14.52 billion.

The company blamed everything but the kitchen sink — literally. Kitchen cabinets were a bright spot, even though sales were “not as strong as we would like to see,” according to the Lowe’s COO. Same store sales rose marginally by 1.6%. The company’s CEO said that Lowe’s “[doesn't] expect consistent improvement in core demand until the fundamentals of the labor and housing markets improve.” No kidding.

As a result of the weak outlook, Lowe’s cut its 2010 revenue guidance from growth of 5%-7% to about 4%, or from $49.58-$50.53 billion to $49.11 billion. The company raised the bottom of its expected EPS range by a penny, and lowered the top by two pennies. The forecast for full-year EPS went from $1.38-$1.45 to $1.37-$1.47.

EPS and revenue for the third quarter is mostly in line with estimates of EPS at $0.31 on revenue of $11.94 billion. Lowe’s forecast EPS for the third quarter is $0.28-$0.32 on revenue of $11.72-$11.97 billion.

Home Depot is expected to report EPS of $0.71 on revenue of $19.59 billion tomorrow. The second quarter is typically the biggest for home improvement stores, and Home Depot, like Lowe’s, should see a rise in sales and profits. But, also like Lowe’s, Home Depot is recovering slowly from nearly a three-year dip in business, so what might otherwise be regarded as a weak quarter will look good because the bar is not set very high.

Wal-Mart is expected to report EPS of $0.97 on revenue of $105.4 billion. The company raised its annual dividend to $1.21 earlier this year, nearly 20%, which may make investors more patient with the struggling behemoth. Still, there’s no reason to expect Wal-Mart earnings to provide a brighter outlook for the rest of the year than have other retailer earnings.

Lowe’s shares are up about 2% this morning, mainly because earnings weren’t as bad as traders had feared. That’s not much to build on though.

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Melco Crown Entertainment Beats Estimates on Top and Bottom Lines

Melco Crown Entertainment (Nasdaq: MPEL  ) reported earnings yesterday. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), Melco Crown Entertainment beat expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue expanded significantly and GAAP earnings per share expanded significantly.

Gross margins dropped, operating margins grew, net margins grew.

Revenue details
Melco Crown Entertainment recorded revenue of $1.01 billion. The five analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ anticipated a top line of $977.4 million. GAAP sales were 30% higher than the prior-year quarter's $773.7 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.20. The five earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ forecast $0.17 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.20 for Q4 were much higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.03 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 28.6%, 17,190 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 13.3%, 720 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 10.7%, 860 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $986.5 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.13.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $4.03 billion. The average EPS estimate is $0.54.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 1,295 members out of 1,348 rating the stock outperform, and 53 members rating it underperform. Among 356 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 341 give Melco Crown Entertainment a green thumbs-up, and 15 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Melco Crown Entertainment is outperform, with an average price target of $15.89.

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Apple: Ticonderoga Warns ‘Barometer’ Surprisingly Low

More negative data points are being cited today for Apple’s (AAPL) sales trends this quarter.

On top of vague rumors of cuts in orders for components pertaining to Apple’s iPad and iPhone, now comes a note from Ticonderoga Securities’s Brian White, who says that his “Apple Barometer” indicates a surprisingly weak order situation in the month of October.

The barometer, which White created to track Apple’s progress indirectly, is a collection of sales data that come from companies that contract to Apple, mostly out of Asia-Pacific.

White does not include in his barometer�Hon Hai Precision (2317TW), the Taiwan-based firm whose Foxconn division assembles some of Apple’s product, because it also builds so much stuff for innumerable other companies.

White, who rates Apple shares a Buy, writes that October sales for this basket of suppliers dropped to just 16% year-over-year growth in October, a marked deceleration from their collective sales growth in September of 62%.

September was likely inflated by the prep for the introduction of Apple’s iPhone 4S in October, he muses.

That said, when we tally up the combined September and October sales versus historical averages, the Apple Barometer still fell well short (~12% below) of what has been reported in the past. Although it is difficult for us to get our head around this weakness given what seems to have been a well received iPhone 4S launch so far and our expectations for a robust holiday season for Apple with the iPad 2 and MacBook Air, this report is too negative to ignore and we must carefully monitor the Apple supply chain over the next few weeks.

As far as Hon Hai, White notes in a separate report today that the company’s revenue in October, which is “theoretically” $295 billion in New Taiwan dollars, was above the six-year average October sales.

However, he also notes that “When taking the average month-over-month sales trends for September and October versus Hon Hai’s actual results, we calculate that sales missed by 5% versus historical trends.” By that, he means the theoretical combined projected sales of $517.3 billion over both September and October was below the average of $547.2 billion for those two months combined.

I would note that one has to consider the partial disruption of the electronics supply chain as a result of flooding in Thailand, which has had a fairly broad impact on the availability of several kinds of components manufactured in that country.

Correction: An earlier version of this report mentioned Hon Hai’s results as part of the Apple barometer, but White clarifies that the barometer data explicitly exclude Hon Hai’s own results.

Initiating Coverage Of OptimizeRx Corp. At Outperform With A $5 Price Target

We are initiating coverage of OptimizeRx Corporation (OPRX.OB) with an Outperform rating and $5.00 price target.

Business

Electronic prescriptions, or e-prescriptions (eRx), accounted for just 6% of all drug prescriptions written in 2008. By 2010 that number had grown to approximately 25%, equal to roughly 326 million prescriptions. e-prescriptions are expected to be at the top of the list in terms of growth of all electronic health applications (the broader healthcare IT market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 11% through at least 2015) and, according to some estimates, could account for over 90% of all drug prescriptions in just the next few years.

Fueled by recent healthcare reform legislation, the rapid growth in healthcare information technology has created new markets, facilitated growth of others and sprouted a slew of novel technologies and new companies. Allscripts, the largest electronic prescribing provider with almost 100k U.S. physicians using their service, is expected to be a direct beneficiary, as are the handful of other major e-prescribers and complementary service providers. OptimizeRx Corporation (OPRX.OB) is one such complementary service that hopes to capitalize on the swift trend towards e-prescriptions, largely through partnerships with these major e-prescribers and agreements with large drug manufacturers.

OptimizeRx's SampleMD software, which can be integrated into these major e-prescription systems, allows physicians to seamlessly provide drug manufacturer vouchers (i.e. - coupons) simultaneously with an electronic prescription. In addition to the major e-prescription providers, OptimizerRx is also targeting large health care systems (i.e. - multi-hospital/clinic systems) for integration of SampleMD into their respective electronic medical records systems. OptimizeRx generates revenue from drug manufacturers every time a physician prints a respective manufacturer's voucher as well as for every (printed) voucher that is redeemed by the patient. If generated through Allscripts, OptimizerRx passes approximately 40% on to the e-prescription provider. OptimizerRx also receives a one-time set-up fee for every drug that is promoted through SampleMD.

SampleMD may be a win-win for all participating stakeholders. Drug companies' sales representatives are increasingly being shut out of face-time with physicians (especially in closed hospital networks), reducing the opportunity for conventional "sampling" (i.e. - providing free drug samples, drug reps' ace-in-the-hole) and, as a result, severely weakening big-pharma's marketing muscle. SampleMD, essentially allows drug companies to continue to sample (i.e. - a coupon in lieu of a physical sample) to physicians without the rep face-time - the cost of SampleMD can also be significantly less than conventional sampling, an added bonus for drug companies. The patient benefits from prescription cost savings when they redeem the vouchers at their pharmacy. SampleMD gives e-prescribers (i.e. - Allscripts, et al.) a high-margin source of revenue with the added kicker of an enhancement to their product. And finally, hospitals and physician practices benefit with SampleMD as a result of helping patients lower their out-of-pocket healthcare costs without the time, hassle and expense associated with their physicians heeding drug reps' sales calls.

OptimizerRx recently entered into an agreement with Allscripts for integration of SampleMD into the e-prescriber's system - the initial version of the integrated system launched in December 2010. In addition, the company has agreements with several health care systems to integrate SampleMD into their electronic medical record (EMR) systems. OptimizerRx currently has contracts with eleven major pharmaceutical companies, covering 45 brand name drugs. OptimizeRx's near-term strategy is to further refine the software, partner with additional e-prescribers, increase the number of installations at hospitals/clinics and significantly grow the number of drugs eligible for vouchers through SampleMD. The company is also in the midst of ironing out legal and compliance hurdles which have slowed the initial launch of SampleMD.

As the SampleMD launch is still in its infancy, revenue to-date has largely been from set-up fees (voucher printing and redemption revenue has been minimal). The expectation is that sales should significantly ramp as revenue is generated from voucher printing and redemptions - which should pick up once the integration with Allscripts is completed and the installed base expands. Sales will be handled by a small internal sales team. As OptimizeRx's cost base is relatively low and largely fixed, depending on the actual rate of revenue growth, profitability could materialize fairly rapidly.

Outlook

Revenue was $200k and $594k through the first three and six months of 2011. Revenue to-date has been largely from set-up fees (voucher printing and redemption revenue has been minimal). The expectation is that sales should significantly ramp with growth in revenue from voucher printing and redemptions - which should pick as SampleMD's distribution is further expanded, especially as it relates to Allscripts' user base. Sales will be handled by a small internal sales team. OptimizeRx's cost base is relatively low and largely fixed - this coupled with what we model to be quickly ramping revenue, means profitability could materialize in short order.

OptimizeRx continues to make enhancements to the software, with their 3.0 version expected to have capabilities such as simplified access to formulary information, greater search functionality and the ability to schedule meetings with drug reps. The 3.0 version is also expected to have the ability to integrate within electronic health record and electronic medical record systems (the current version only integrates with e-prescription systems and is available as a stand-alone desktop system). While these enhancements are currently under development and not expected to be fully functional for about 6 months, OptimizeRx expects the current version to be sufficient to continue to facilitate the further roll-out of SampleMD throughout the Allscripts user base - which is by far their greatest near-term opportunity.

Revenue

Our revenue model is based on certain assumptions including the rate of growth in the number of subscribers using SampleMD, the number of drugs promoted through SampleMD and their respective aggregate prescription volumes, the number of voucher prints per physician and the rate of voucher redemptions. As SampleMD is still very much on the front of its roll-out, there is little to anchor on relative to any of these metrics which presents significant challenges in forecasting revenue.

Relative to the drugs that are being promoted through SampleMD, as OptimizeRx has not disclosed the names of these drugs, it is impossible to comfortably gauge related prescription volumes (i.e. - we do not know how if these are top-20 drugs or top-200 drugs). This makes it that much more difficult to forecast potential physician coupon print and patient redemption volumes - revenue from which is expected to account for the majority of net sales in 2012 and beyond (we model it to account for almost 100% of revenue by 2014). And even if we did know which particular drugs were being promoted, until there's some available historical information related to print and redemption rates, revenue forecasting will be tricky.

With only limited information relative to revenue driver metrics and SampleMD still on the front end of commercialization we feel it is prudent to be conservative on our model inputs. The major inputs to our model along with our assumptions are:

  • SampleMD Users (i.e. - prescribers): This currently stands at about 20k. Per our discussions with the company, management expects this to grow to 200k+ over the next 12 months, largely driven by deeper penetration of Allscripts' user base and agreements with other e-prescribers for integration of SampleMD into their respective systems. We more conservatively model ~ 100k users by the end of 2012. Our model assumes SampleMD does not hit the 200k users mark until the end of 2014.
  • Drugs Promoted: This currently stands at about 45 drugs. OptimizeRx hopes to have 100+ drugs onboard within the next 12 months. We more conservatively model 74 drugs at the end of 2012. Our model assumes the 100-drug mark is not reached until Q3 2014.
  • Voucher Prints Per Physician: This, along with voucher redemption rates, are not only the most difficult to estimate, they are also likely the most influential driver of revenue (given that they have a significant multiplier / leverage effect). This metric could also be highly influenced by the number of drugs promoted and, more importantly, the prescription volumes (i.e. - popularity of the drug) of those particular drugs. Our model uses a potentially extremely conservative estimate relative to prints per physician. We assume initially this is only 1 coupon printed per day for every 50 physicians that have SampleMD - said another way, if 50 physicians have SampleMD, our model assumes only 1 coupon is printed among them each day. Even in later years our assumptions remain arguably very conservative. In 2014 we assume 1 coupon is printed per day for every 7 physicians. To emphasize how much leverage this metric has in our model, if we assume 1 coupon is printed per day for every 5 physicians in 2014 (instead of our currently modeled 1 for every 7), our estimated 2014 net revenue figure moves from $32.9MM to $48.3MM.
  • Redemption Rate: Management has indicated that voucher redemption rates (i.e. - the % of printed vouchers that are ultimately redeemed by a patient) are running at about 20%. We more conservatively model a static (i.e. - no improvement in later years) 10% redemption rate.

Near-Term Revenue Forecast

We model little in the way of print and redemption revenue through the remainder of the current year. We look for $684k in total revenue for the second half of 2011 ($294k in Q1, $389k in Q2), with 65% of that coming from new drug set/up fees.

In 2012, with assumed deeper penetration of Allscripts' user base, new deals with other e-prescribers, a moderate number of additional drugs being promoted and a slight uptick in the voucher print rate (to 1 coupon printed per day for every 22 prescribers using SampleMD), revenue from voucher prints and redemptions should begin to become more meaningful. We model net revenue of $4.9 million in 2012, with 90% ($4.4 million) of that coming from voucher prints and redemptions. All of our net revenue figures are net of an estimated 40% royalty to Allscripts for print / redemption revenue related to vouchers originating from Allscripts' system users.

Mid-Term Revenue Forecast

In 2013 and 2014 we model revenue of $18.2 million and $32.9 million, reflecting only very modest assumptions relative to growth in the number of drugs promoted (from 74 at 2012 year end to 85 in 2013 and 105 in 2014) as well as prints per physician (from 1 for every 22 prescribers per day in 2012 to 1 for every 11 in 2013 to 1 for every 7 in 2014). We think it bears repeating that due to the leverage effect, if actual voucher print rates prove to be only very slightly better than our estimates, OptimizeRx's actual revenue (as well as net income and EPS) could be significantly greater than our estimates. We will update our model regularly as more information becomes available over the next several months.

EPS

The business model should be super scalable and as it relates to operating expenses, OptimizeRx runs fairly lean. SampleMD will continue to be enhanced with additional functionality and management indicated that they may slightly scale up marketing / sales. Slightly more capitalized web development costs will also begin to amortize going into 2012 (although amortization should remain relatively minimal as total capitalized intangibles was only about $1.4MM at 6/30/2011 with most amortizing straight-line over 17 years). While we think this may push SG&A up very modestly through 2012, based on our model, OptimizeRx could see positive net income by the end of next year. We see no reason why OptimizeRx could not continue to gain even greater operating leverage in the following years. We model EPS of ($0.10) in 2011, $0.03 in 2012, $0.22 in 2013 and $0.31 in 2014.

Valuation

As the launch of SampleMD, OptimizeRx's flagship product, is still in its infancy, using P/E ratio based on a near-term EPS estimate would unfairly penalize valuation. Instead we think it is more appropriate to use our EPS estimate for 2014, at which time SampleMD should be fully commercialized and OptimizeRx's financials should more accurately reflect the earning power of the company.

As there are no publicly traded direct competitors to OptimizeRx to use for comparable P/E multiples, we think it is appropriate to use the average valuations of a handful of indirect competitors to price OPRX. Our comparable base is represented by MDRX, MDAS, QSII, ATHN and ESRX, all of which operate in the healthcare information technology space and most of which are involved to some extent in e-prescription services or EMR / EHR.

These five companies currently trade at an average of 16.1x analysts' estimated 2014 EPS. Applying this multiple to our 2014 EPS estimate of $0.31 values OptimizeRx at almost exactly $5.00 per share. Although our valuation could change based on potential future changes to our model, as it is now, we value OPRX at $5.00 / share. Based on the discrepancy between what we calculate as fair value and OPRX's current $1.13 market price, we feel the shares are significantly undervalued and are initiating coverage with an Outperform rating.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Annuity Case Chills Insurance Agents

Last month, Glenn Neasham, an independent insurance agent, was ordered to spend 90 days in jail on a felony-theft conviction for selling a complex annuity to an 83-year-old woman who prosecutors alleged had shown signs of dementia.

The agent's conviction, by a state-court jury in Lake County, Calif., is sending shivers down the spines of Mr. Neasham's peers across the country. They can't recall another case where an agent was sent behind bars for selling an annuity.

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Glenn Neasham and his children, Emily and Logan, in February 2009.

Agents "who steal from vulnerable seniors will not get away with their shameful tricks," Steve Poizner, the state's then-insurance commissioner, said in a statement in 2010 when Mr. Neasham was arrested.

Mr. Neasham, 52 years old, maintains the woman appeared fine and wasn't confused at the time of the 2008 transaction and that he acted appropriately. His lawyer has filed notice of appeal, and a bail hearing is scheduled for this week.

The case underlines authorities' continuing discomfort with "indexed" annuities, savings products that pay interest tied to the performance of stock- and bond-market indexes. Insurers guarantee that buyers won't lose any of their principal but in return charge sometimes-steep penalties if investors withdraw their money early, for periods that can stretch beyond a decade.

Indexed annuities are attractive to agents because of the high commissions they receive from insurers, which can be 12% or more of the invested amount.

But Mr. Neasham's case has led some agents to think twice before offering the products.

"It's very scary," said Peter Langelier, an agent in Maine. "There is nothing in insurance-licensing that prepares you as a nonmedical person to diagnose dementia."

Some agents said the Neasham case is compelling them to scale back sales of indexed annuities even as demand is cresting. Historically low interest rates and a volatile stock market have helped draw buyers. Sales have more than quadrupled in the past decade, swelling to $32.2 billion in 2011, according to Limra.

"The case will definitely have a chilling effect," said Larry Rybka, chief executive of ValMark Securities Inc. in Akron, Ohio, which includes an insurance brokerage. Mr. Rybka fired off a memo last month on the case to his firm's internal compliance and marketing teams, reinforcing instructions to make sure brokers warn prospective buyers of the withdrawal penalties and other features. The firm for years has discouraged agents from selling certain indexed annuities. Now Mr. Rybka wants them to sell even fewer.

Arthur Rudnick, a White Plains, N.Y., agent, said the case will be "in the back of my mind" with elderly clients, and, "more so than ever, I'd be willing to walk away from a sale." He added: "Anybody who has common sense that is aware of this case will come to the same realization."

So far, insurers say they aren't seeing a sales decline, though agents are calling with questions.

"Indexed annuities protected people during the 2008-2009 downturn," said a spokesman for a U.S. unit of Allianz SE, which issued the annuity at the heart of Mr. Neasham's case. "They didn't lose principal, and more people are seeing the value of that protection."

In the mid 2000s, private plaintiffs and state attorneys general sued insurers for alleged unsuitable sales of the products to elderly people who lost money because of the withdrawal penalties. To resolve the suits, insurers agreed to better screen buyers for financial suitability, among other changes.

In an interview, Mr. Neasham said the elderly woman, Fran Schuber, arrived at his office with her longtime octogenarian boyfriend, who had bought an indexed annuity from Mr. Neasham years before.

The boyfriend, Louis Jochim, said in an interview that Ms. Schuber knew he was pleased with his annuity and wanted one as an alternative to a bank certificate of deposit. Ms. Schuber "was mentally competent," Mr. Jochim said.

The criminal case, under a state law specifically protecting elderly people, is rooted in what happened next: Ms. Schuber and Mr. Jochim went to a local bank to withdraw $175,000 for the purchase. A bank manager then notified California's adult-protection officials, saying the woman seemed confused and influenced by Mr. Jochim, court filings show.

Lake County Senior Deputy District Attorney Rachel Abelson said in a court filing there was "sufficient evidence presented [at trial] to show that Fran Schuber was not capable of consenting to the transaction in question and evidence showed that [Mr. Neasham] knew that at the time." In an interview, Ms. Abelson said a $14,000, or 8%, commission "played into his criminal intent."

Had Ms. Schuber pulled her money out within the first year of ownership, she would have had to pay a penalty equal to 12.5% of the principal, according to Allianz.

Allianz cleared the sale as financially suitable after the woman signed a form stating she had sufficient liquid assets, the company spokesman said. Such reviews aren't intended to diagnose dementia, he added.

By last year's trial, Ms. Schuber was too ill to testify. The annuity was cashed out in January by Ms. Schuber's son, Theodore, who was named her conservator last September, said his attorney, Mary Heare Amodio. Allianz returned the principal with interest and no penalties, Ms. Amodio and the insurer said.

As his April 18 reporting date to Lake County Hill Road Jail approaches, Mr. Neasham said he has had "really bad dreams" about going behind bars. Once earning $500,000 annually, he now seeks donations for legal fees.

"I never expected conviction," Mr. Neasham said. "I thought the case would be thrown out."

Write to Leslie Scism at leslie.scism@wsj.com

Chesapeake Creates $34 Billion Of Value

Being an outside investor is hard. Any time the shares of a publicly traded company you own start underperforming its peer group you wonder if there isn’t something going on that you don’t know. You are just an outsider and perhaps other people have better information than you do?

If the stock price really starts acting strangely you might even get tempted to sell at exactly the wrong time. That is why you really need to be able to have confidence in the management team who are inside the company running it for you.

For a long time I’ve followed Chesapeake Energy (CHK). And for a long time I’ve had a hard time having confidence in management. Three big reasons:

  • CEO Aubrey McClendon lost virtually his entire ownership stake in Chesapeake during the 2008 market collapse because of margin calls
  • Later in 2008 after McClendon lost these shares Chesapeake bought $12 million of antique maps from him
  • Also in 2008 after he lost his shares McClendon was awarded a $75 million bonus from Chesapeake

Like many people I didn’t really want to own a company run by a guy who took that much risk with his personal finances. Why wouldn’t he have similarly bad judgement running the company? The map sale is just awful really. What does an energy producer need a map collection for? And the bonus was especially egregious given the timing of it in the midst of what looked for a time to be the start of a depression.

But Aubrey and his crew have won me over. They have done it by repeatedly assembling hugely valuable acreage positions in unconventional resource plays, telling me what they were worth and then executing joint venture transactions that fully backed up their claims.

What these joint ventures have also done is create a huge amount of value for shareholders and made it easy to see that Chesapeake is dramatically undervalued.

The Joint Ventures

There have been five joint ventures executed by Chesapeake in total.

1) Haynesville Joint Venture with Plains Exploration (PXP) – The timing on this one was extremely fortunate occurring as natural gas prices were over $10 immediately before the world fell apart in June 2008. Chesapeake sold 20% of its Haynesville acreage to Plains for $3.16 billion. That implied that the acreage retained by Chesapeake was worth $13.2 billion.

2) Marcellus Joint Venture with Statoil (STO) – At a time when deals couldn’t get done, Chesapeake got a deal done. In November 2008 Statoil paid $2.1 billion for a 32.5% interest in Chesapeake’s Marcellus shale acreage. The implied value of the retained acreage for Chesapeake was $7 billion. The price received certainly reflected the market conditions of November 2008, but at the time Chesapeake needed to strengthen its financial position.

3) Barnett Shale Joint Venture with Total (TOT) – It is almost like Chesapeake is trying to learn new languages, this time teaming up with a French company. For $2.25 billion Total got a 25% interest in Chesapeake’s Barnett shale properties, which implied that the retained value was $6.8 billion.

4) Eagle Ford Joint Venture with CNOOC (CEO) – Chesapeake put its Eagle Ford acreage position together with blinding speed in 2010. In November 2010 CNOOC bought a 33% interest in the land for $2.2 billion implying that Chesapeake retained a land position worth $4.4 billion.

5) Niobrara Joint Venture with CNOOC – Same partner, different property. This time the Niobrara where CNOOC purchased a 33% interest for $1.3 billion implying that the retained value is $2.6 billion to Chesapeake.

Add all of those together and the implied retained value for Chesapeake is $34 billion. That is useful information to have when you know that the enterprise value is $30 billion and you also know that Chesapeake has another $15 billion of proved and probable reserves, and joint ventures coming on the Utica shale (estimated to be worth $15 billion plus), the Mississippi lime and the Williston Basin.

The Value Creation

The joint ventures are extremely useful for help in figuring out what the value of Chesapeake’s assets might be. But what is really impressive is the value creation that they show.

Consider the following which relates to the various joint venture properties:

  • Cost of Acquiring the Acreage - $16.6 billion
  • Proceed from the Joint Ventures - $19.9 billion

Chesapeake has more than recovered all of the cash spent acquiring the acreage in these joint ventures AND retains ownership of 66% to 80% of each of the properties which were shown above to have a value of roughly $34 billion.

For a long time Chesapeake was criticized for constantly spending billions on land when investors thought that the company should be strengthening its balance sheet. But when you basically pay nothing on a net basis and receive properties that are worth $34 billion in an undeveloped state why would you not?

Chesapeake was given up for dead in late 2008 because the market couldn’t see where the company would get financing from to develop its huge inventory. There are quite a few companies being priced today like this despite having asset values that are multiples of their current share prices.

Investors want to be buying when uncertainty prevails and assets are discounted and selling when the future seems clear. Of course the million dollar question is being able to differentiate between uncertainty and risk.

Disclosure: I am long CHK.

Beijing’s Currency Choice – Wall Street Journal

Wall Street JournalBeijing's Currency Choice
Wall Street Journal
Amid the re-emergence of China as the world's second largest economy�not to mention fulcrum of the world's most dynamic trading region�Beijing has taken a series of steps to promote yuan internationalization. It has introduced currency swaps with some …
China, South Korea agree to boost yuan, won use in tradeReuters
S. Korea, China agree to use currency swap for trade settlementKuwait News Agency
China, S. Korea Agree to Boost Use of Local Currency in TradeBloomberg
Wall Street Journal (India) -Business Recorder (blog) -The Star Online
all 72 news articles »

{fcurrency trading} – Forex News

Is Netflix Ready for a Duel With Google?

It's unclear exactly what's going on at Netflix (NFLX) these days. As usual, the company remains mum on most aspects of its ever-evolving business, particularly concerns over its content acquisition spending spree. And just the other day, Herb Greenberg of CNBC tweeted something that has gone under the radar: Deborah Crawford, the company's VP of Investor Relations, is out.

[Click to enlarge]

I have no illusions of grandeur (well, maybe once in a while), but I did find it ironic that the end of Crawford's tenure coincided with an article I wrote calling Netflix out for its less-than-transparent and less-than-investor/analyst-friendly conference call format.

The bottom line in the larger scheme of things: Investor relations at Netflix needs a bit of work. Most likely, however, Crawford just wants time to enjoy life and reap the fruits of her Netflix labor. It's also possible that she's taking the fall for her own or somebody else's poor decisions. In any case, it's no surprise that Netflix has no comment. So far, it hasn't even told who will read the script with CEO Reed Hastings and CFO David Wells on the company's April 25 conference call, which was, interestingly, pushed back a few days.

Part of the reason for the recent surge in bearishness towards NFLX involves moves by DISH Network (DISH) and Google (GOOG). Of course, DISH bought Blockbuster (BBI) the other day, triggering concerns that it might ramp up its streaming efforts and provide yet more competition for Netflix.

The bigger challenge to Netflix, however, comes from Google. The company is in the middle of retooling YouTube and, reportedly, set to take on Netflix in the streaming of online content. As The Wall Street Journal notes today, an analyst at Wedge Partners thinks Netflix has lots to fear:

Traffic volumes aside, perhaps the most significant advantage that GOOG has in competition with NFLX is the widespread distribution of the YouTube streaming application on consumer devices such as the iPhone, Apple TV, Android, BD Players, IP-enabled TVs, etc. Unlike other streaming video competitors, YouTube is on nearly every device platform on which NFLX is running today. We believe that it is this platform distribution in particular that gives GOOG a significant leg up on the competition vs. NFLX.

The analyst, Martin Pyykkonen, also pointed out something that deserves further consideration. He notes that content providers will welcome another bidder into the content acquisition market. This is an understatement. Simply put, Netflix is unprepared to compete with the likes of Google. In a battle of the bankrolls the company has absolutely no chance of winning. In fact, if Google is serious and intends to buy up content for its YouTube venture aggressively, Hastings will have little choice but to knock on Larry Page's door and ask for mercy or a lifeline, or completely change course.

According to Yahoo Finance, Google has about $35 billion in cash. Netflix has a paltry $351 million (and I rounded up generously). It's not just about cash. Unlike Netflix, Google's assets are worth something. They don't consist solely of "content," old DVDs, and warehouses. Just as Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Amazon.com (AMZN) effectively combined to stomp out every Mom and Pop shop, toy store, and bookstore east of San Francisco, Google could literally put Netflix out of business in an instant. And why shouldn't it?

From its position of power, Google can render Netflix extinct. If Google starts a bidding war, it might be more than willing to overpay for content simply to help YouTube take the next step in its evolution and cement itself as more than a site for uploads of concert bootlegs and your kid singing Rolling Stones' songs.

Without a buyout from Google, It might be wise of Netflix to take a step back, consider its content play a battle lost before it really begins, phone up Coinstar (CSTR) to talk partnership, and replace its focus on all things DVD rental.

Disclosure: I am short NFLX via a long position in put options.

U.S. corporate tax rate: No. 1 in the world

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- On Sunday, the United States gets a distinction no nation wants -- the world's highest corporate tax rate.

Japan, which currently has the highest rate in the world -- a 39.8% rate on business income between national and local taxes -- cuts its rate to 36.8% as of April 1. The U.S. rate stands at 39.2% when both federal and state rates are included.

Quiz: What the rich really pay in taxes

"The change in and of itself is not that important, but there's some symbolism involved in being the highest in the world," said Eric Toder, co-director of the Tax Policy Center, a non-partisan think tank. "There's certainly been a long-term trend of our rate getting higher relative to everyone else."

But despite the headline number, the statutory rate only tells part of the story.

Loopholes and other special treatment for different kinds of businesses mean that businesses pay an effective rate of only 29.2% of their income, which puts the United States below the average of 31.9% among other major economies, according to analysis by the Treasury Department.

Tax reform: Why it's so hard

And the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the multinational group that tracks global economic growth, estimates the United States collects less corporate tax relative to the overall economy than almost any other country in the world.

Some economists argue that tax collection relative to gross domestic product is the more relevant measure. That's because different accounting rules around the world mean what's counted as income in one country isn't counted in another, making comparisons of tax rates misleading.

Still, both Democrats and Republicans argue that the corporate tax rate should be lowered as a way of promoting greater economic growth, so that multinational companies have incentive to invest more in their U.S. operations than overseas. President Obama has proposed cutting the corporate rate to 28%, Republican challenger Mitt Romney proposes a 25% rate.

Obama's tax plan

Both sides are in agreement for the need to reduce the loopholes and other exemptions that shield companies from paying taxes on all their income. That kind of reform could increase corporate tax collections, or at least leave them unchanged, even with a lower rate.

But reaching agreement on that kind of tax reform has proved to be virtually impossible, especially during an election year.

Romney's tax plans

For example, President Obama wants to impose a minimal tax on the overseas profits of U.S. companies to discourage them from moving operations offshore to tax havens. Romney and the Republicans oppose that proposal.

So the United States is virtually certain to have the title of the world's highest corporate rate, at least until after the presidential election. 

AAPL: Slow China iPhone 5 Response a Technicality, Says Piper

Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster this afternoon reiterates an Overweight rating on shares of Apple (AAPL) and a $900 price target, rebuffing an article this morning by Paul Mozur of The Wall Street Journal�that said Apple’s retail debut of the iPhone 5 today at its store in Beijing‘s Sanlitun shopping district was “arguably the least eventful launch of an Apple device in the company’s four year-history in the Chinese capital.” The plaza outside the store was nearly empty, reports Mozur.

Concerns about a tepid reception of the iPhone 5 were the topic of discussion this morning�by both Steve Milunovich of UBS and Peter Misek of Jefferies & Co., both of whom trimmed iPhone estimates.

Munster argues there’s no problem with demand, but rather changes Apple has made to distribution and order procedures for customers:

We believe there are a few key takeaways from the China iPhone launch and why there were not long lines as seen in the US:�Reservations – Apple is using a reservation system for customers that want to purchase an iPhone, which we believe is enabling them to avoid the riots that the company saw during the 4S launch. We note that Apple has used this system for the most recent iPad launches.�Increased Distribution – We believe that Apple has roughly 2x as many points of sale for the iPhone 5 compared to the 4S launch. Additionally, the iPhone 4S launched on only one carrier, while the iPhone 5 is launched on two. China Unicom Pre-Orders – According to a post on Sina Weibo reported by Reuters, China Unicom noted that it had 300k iPhone 5 pre-orders ahead of the launch compared to 200k for the last iPhone pre-orders the company had done.

Apple shares today are down $19.49, or almost 4%, at $510.20.

Meru Slips After Q1; Think Starts At Buy; JMP More Cautious

Meru Networks (MERU) shares are trading lower this morning after the company late yesterday reported Q1 results, the wireless LAN provider’s first as a public company. Meru went public March 31, on the last day of the quarter, at $15 a share.

For Q1, the company reported revenue of $19.6 million, up 28% from a year ago, with a loss of 20 cents a share.

  • JMP Securities analyst Douglas Ireland this morning launched coverage of the stock with a Market Perform rating, putting fair value at $17. He notes that the quarter was in line with expectations, but that there could be some confusion on the loss per share due to the share count the company used to compute the figure; the loss was only $97,000. Meanwhile, he cautions that the stock is trading at 78x his 2011 EPS estimate of 21 cents a share; he also notes that the company is in a highly competitive market that includes Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Motorola (MOT) and :”a host of others.” Not least, he cautions that in September 2010 a lock-up expiration will free up 11 million shares for public sale; the company only has 14.9 million outstanding.
  • ThinkEquity analyst Jonathan Rukyhaver picked up coverage today with a Buy rating and $19 target, citing “the company’s solid competitive position, strong product differentiation and distribution footprint in a rapidly growing market.”

MERU today is down 40 cents, or 2.5%, to $15.90.

Previously: Meru Networks: Cowen Launches At Outperform; Baird Neutral (May 10, 2010)

Become A Railroad Baron: The Art Of Building Your Own Rail ETF

In a world dominated by technology, Google (GOOG) this and Facebook (FB) that, let's take a few minutes to go old-school with the railroads. After the tough market we've had over the last decade few stocks have outperformed Union Pacific (UNP) or CSX (CSX) shares, 286%, and +250%, respectively. The railroads may seem old-fashioned and yet they have never been more high tech, more energy efficient, more profitable, or busier. Railroads provide the investor a great play on the coming U.S> economic recovery, with growing dividends and double digit earnings growth.

Somehow despite the sector being red hot over the last decade Wall Street has yet to provide an exclusively railroad weighted ETF for investors. I will call mine (CHOO), a call out to the old coal fired trains of decades ago. "CHOO" will be relatively concentrated but focus on three key characteristics of the sector: Core, growth, contrarian.

"CHOO" Rail ETF

Union Pacific Corporation: Core Holding, 45% weighting

53.5B market cap, 2.12% yield

Overview:

Union Pacific is the core holding of the "CHOO" ETF at 45%. UNP is a behemoth in the U.S. railroad industry, setting the standard in operating excellence and operating scale. UNP serves 23 states in the western 65% of the country, exposing the company positively to the growing west, and California, the world's sixth largest economy. Operating out west, Union Pacific is substantially shielded from decreasing coal shipments in the sector, and looks to benefit from strong growth in manufacturing and farm output in the Midwest. UNP is best in class, a great place to be.

Earnings Outlook:

Union Pacific reported strong Q1 earnings and guidance looked solid. UNP is currently trading at 15.1x earnings, and looks to earn $8.12 per share for 2012, and $9.28 per share for 2013. Earnings the next two years will grow roughly 20% leaving the shares trading at 12x 2013 earnings. Also of note UNP raised its dividend from 48 cents to 60 cents, a 20% increase, in 2011.

Canadian National Railway: (CNI), Core Holding, 20% weighting

35.B market cap, 1.8% yield

Overview:

Canadian National Railway is a smaller core holding of the "CHOO" ETF with a 20% weighting. CNI is a high quality, profitable play on global growth and U.S. recovery. For decades to come Canada will be a major supplier of natural resources to the U.S. and abroad. The company is highly profitable with a 33% net profit margin, and looks to play a large part in fueling growth which requires the bountiful resources Canada has to offer. The stock has been chugging higher for years, and with a market cap of only 35B has tons of room to grow.

Earnings Outlook:

Canadian National reported a decent first quarter, and growth is on track. CNI is currently trading at 14.5x earnings, and looks to earn $5.52 per share for 2012, and $6.15 per share for 2013. Earnings the next few year look to grow in the high teens leaving the shares trading at 13.3x 2013 earning.

Kansas City Southern: (KSU), Growth, 20% weighting

7.7B market cap, 1.04% yield

Overview:

Kansas City Southern is the growth holding of the "CHOO" ETF with a 20% weighting. KSU is the smallest of the four "CHOO" holdings but has the greatest profit growth profile. A high quality, small, middle America company, KSU has a strong expansion profile and should double if not triple from its current 7.7B market cap in the coming decade. Middle America is experiencing a renaissance of sorts from farming, livestock and the booming oil and gas operations. KSU is well positioned to chug higher in the long-term.

Earnings Outlook:

Kansas City Southern reported a strong Q1, and the expansion story is intact. KSU is pricier than the other components of "CHOO" currently trading at 21x earnings, but looks to earn $3.51 per share for 2012 and $4.22 per share for 2012. Earnings look to grow 17.5% for 2012 and 22% for 2013. KSU is a growth story and is priced as one. The stock has been a huge winner over the last year, at 30%. Kansas City is a great addition to "CHOO" at current levels and even better on dips.

CSX Corporation: Contrarian, 15% weighting

22.3B market cap, 2.6% yield

Overview:

CSX has been unloved by investors as of late, making it the contrarian trade of the group. Despite strong growth and earnings CSX has lagged its peers as worries over coal shipments dog this high quality growing railroad. What investors are missing is as coal shipments decline, inter-modal shipping of manufactured goods and especially cars along the East Coast has been a blistering and profitable trade over the last few years and forward. Also a long-term bull case for CSX is the fact that the Panama Canal will be widened, leading to increased shipments and profits 5-7 years from now. CSX is the smallest position in the CHOO ETF at 15%, and yet quarter after quarter earnings and management beat expectations.

Earnings Outlook:

CSX reported a decent Q1, highlighting strength in car shipments from BMW, Toyota and GM. CSX is the cheapest railroad in the ETF at 12.4x earnings, and has the highest dividend rate at 2.6%. CSX looks to earn $1.82 per share for 2012 and $2.07 per share in 2013. The earnings growth estimates for CSX have come down from 15% to just above 8% currently, leaving shares to trade at 10.3x 2013 earnings. Decreasing coal shipments short term have really hurt the shares, but long-term natural gas will not remain in the low $2 range, and economic growth in the U.S. will accelerate utilizing CSX's East Coast rail network and growing earnings until investors recognize the diamond in the rough CSX is. Coal can be dirty, but the profits can be golden.

Conclusion:

Railroads move an unbelievable amount of goods thousands of miles efficiently everyday. Everything from cars to furniture, crops, coal, iron ore and livestock. As the U.S. economy recovers, finished goods need to be shipped, and animals need to be fed, railroads will take things where they need to go. They may seem old school, and yet sometimes stability and profitability are rewarded most of all. The railroads have double digit growth ahead and relatively modest market caps. The "CHOO" rail ETF is made up of some of the best companies money can buy, beating the overall market handily, and chugging higher.

Holdings:

Union Pacific Corporation: , Core Holding, 45% weighting

53.5B market cap, 2.12% yield

Canadian National Railway: , Core Holding, 20% weighting

35.B market cap, 1.8% yield

Kansas City Southern: , Growth, 20% weighting

7.7B market cap, 1.04% yield

CSX Corporation: , Contrarian, 15%

22.3B market cap, 2.6% yield

5 year return:

UNP: +93.1%

CNI: +58.6%

KSU: +83%

CSX: +43.5%

S&P500: -11.3%

Buy on dips.

Always do your homework.

Disclosure: I am long UNP.