To Annuitize, or Not to Annuitize: What Sways the Choice?

All else being equal, why do some people choose a lump sum distribution while others opt for a systematic withdrawal?

It’s an increasingly important question as worries grow over sustainable streams of income and the possibility of outliving ones assets.

The answer initially appears quite simple—plan design. But it quickly gets complicated from there.

As the Employee Benefit Research Institute notes, it’s both a matter of national retirement policy and a key to understanding the potential role of plan design and education in influencing individual decision-making.

“Defined benefit plan rules or features result in very different annuitization rates in defined benefit plans,” EBRI writes in its latest issue brief, titled Annuity and Lump-Sum Decisions in Defined Benefit Plans: The Role of Plan Rules. “In fact, the results show that the rate of annuitization varies directly with the degree to which plan rules restrict the ability to choose a partial or lump-sum distribution.”

This study shows that annuitization rates vary significantly across these different plan types, which makes any attempt to combine the annuitization rates across these different plan types uninformative.

Combining all the plans across the years 2005 to 2010, workers who made their payout decision between ages 50 and 75 had minimum job tenure of five years, a minimum account balance of $5,000, and had an annuitization rate of 65.8%. But within this group of workers, those who had no plan restrictions on a lump-sum distribution had an annuitization rate of only 27.3%.

Not surprisingly, EBRI finds that in all the years studied, plans with no lump-sum distribution options have the highest annuitization rates, very close to 100 percent.  Traditional defined benefit and cash balance plans with no restrictions on LSDs had the lowest annuitization rates. 

In 2010, the annuitization rate for all plans combined was 65.5%, while for plans with no LSD option it was 98.8%, but the annuitization rate for defined benefit plans with no restrictions on LSDs was 44.3%, while for cash balance plans with no restrictions on lump-sum distribution s it was 22.3%.

For older workers across most plan types, annuitization rates increase steadily with account balance, but this is not the case for younger workers.

Annuitization rates also increase with tenure, but for younger workers (20?50) with low tenure (less than 10 years), annuitization rates are very low. For older workers (50?75), annuitization rates are higher even in cases of low tenure.

Annuitization rates are very low for those below age 40, the study concludes, but from that point onwards, annuitization rates increase for all types of plans. Annuitization rates appear to peak between 65 and 69, but then fall sharply. 

Top Stocks For 1/19/2013-1

American Video Teleconferencing Corp. (Pink Sheets:AVOT) is pleased to announce that it is presently in final discussions to enter into a formal agreement to acquire an exclusive option on a molybdenum property in the Otter lake area in the province of Quebec, Canada.

The property has been dormant since the 1960�s when Hupon Mining and Exploration carried out surface work, stripping, trenching and a minor drill program of 445 feet contained in 11 drill holes. Some of the sample results from the trenching in 1962 showed 0.94% to 25% molybdenum averaging 5-10%. These values were obtained from assessment files in the Department of Mines in Quebec City.

Rare earths are necessary components of future energy technologies and important to greenhouse gas abatement strategies. They also have been called the vitamins of the electronics industry.

China is the world�s largest producer of rare earth elements, most of which are used in modern technology, such as new energy sources and hybrid cars. It announced in July that it will cut exports for minerals used to make hybrid cars and televisions by 72 percent in the second half of the year.

China has started to severely restrict the exports of rare-earth materials, which often find use in �green� technology designs, including hybrid vehicles and energy-efficient lighting, as well as in the medical, defense, and consumer markets. The country delivers nearly 100% of the world�s rare-earth materials: 17 metals that are somewhat hard to refine and that tend to occur in the same ore deposits. The cutbacks have resulted in shock waves through the electronics industry and could force design changes in the near future.

Constraints on Chinese exports are creating opportunities for non-Chinese projects.

Crown Equity Holdings Inc. (OTCBB:CRWE) announced that its subsidiary company, Crown Tele Services Inc. is moving forward after dissolving its joint venture with Communication Expert Corporation and will gradually start rolling out its internet based voice and video service IP-PBX solutions next year.

The cornerstone of Crown Tele Services Inc. strategy is to meet the highest standards when it comes to delivering VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) communication solutions specifically designed to meet the market needs.

Crown TeleServices intention -built distributed voice architecture forms the heart of our unified communications platform, allowing for its rich feature set and highly reliable distributed voice services.

Along with IP telephony, contact center, and unified communications services, it scales with plug-and play ease across as many sites as needed.

Along with its low total cost of ownership, a Crown TeleServices UC system helps organizations leverage their most valuable assets: people and information.

Crown Equity Holdings Inc., together with its digital network, currently provides electronic media services specializing in online publishing and Web sites, which bring together targeted audiences and advertisers that want to reach them. Crown Equity Holdings Inc. offers internet media-driven advertising services, which covers and connects a range of marketing specialties, as well as search engine optimization for clients interested in online media awareness.

Kenexa Corp. (Nasdaq:KNXA) a global leader in providing business solutions for human resources, announced its newly enhanced integration with Sterling Infosystems, Inc., one of the premier providers of employment screening and occupational health services solutions. The partnership gives human resources professionals and global organizations the benefits of having more efficient integrated talent management and employment screening capabilities.

Kenexa Corporation and its subsidiaries provide software, proprietary content, and services that enable organizations to recruit and retain employees. The company offers hiring solutions and retention solutions.

National CineMedia, Inc. (Nasdaq:NCMI) announced that the Company will be presenting at the Citi 21st Annual Global Entertainment, Media and Telecommunications Conference on Wednesday, January 5, 2011 at The Arizona Biltmore in Phoenix, AZ. The presentation will begin at 2:55 PM MST.

National CineMedia, Inc. operates a digital in-theatre network in North America. The company distributes advertising, and Fathom business and consumer events through its proprietary store and forward digital content network, and live digital broadcast network.

Amtech Systems Inc. (Nasdaq:ASYS) a global supplier of production and automation systems and related supplies for the manufacture of solar cells, semiconductors, and silicon wafers, announced that its solar subsidiary, Tempress Systems, Inc., has received approximately $23 million in new solar orders for its diffusion processing systems from new and existing customers in China.

Amtech Systems, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, assembly, sale, and installation of capital equipment and related consumables used in the manufacture of wafers, primarily for the solar and semiconductor industries. It operates in two segments, Solar and Semiconductor Equipment, and Polishing Supplies.

Stocks Flat; Morgan Stanley Rising

APHaving a good morning

The leading stock indexes are flat this morning ahead of the final session before the three-day weekend.

On the rise, however, are shares of Morgan Stanley (MS), up more than 6% after the bank swung to a quarterly profit and said revenues increased 23%. CEO James Gorman called the results “a pivot point” for the bank. Excluding accounting charges, profit was 45 cents a share, well ahead of consensus estimates of 27 cents.

Also seeing a nice post-earnings bump are shares of State Street (STT), up 5% after it reported a 15% rise in profits and beat Wall Street estimates. The custody bank also said it plans to cut 630 jobs, 2% of its workforce.

Capital One Financial‘s (COF) stock is falling, down 7% in the wake of last night’s disappointing earnings and outlook.

Shaping up to be one of the day’s big risers is Life Technologies (LIFE), whose stock is up more than 10% after it said in a brief statement that it has hired�Deutsche Bank Securities and Moelis & Company “to assist in its annual strategic review.” That news chimes with a newspaper report published yesterday, according to Reuters:

The Financial Post reported on Thursday that the Carlsbad, California-based company had started a process that might see it acquired either by a private equity firm as part of a leveraged buyout or by one of the larger global industry�players.

Also seeing gains are shares of Rio Tinto (RIO), up about 2.4% today following yesterday’s 0.5% drop. I wrote about the turmoil at the mining company yesterday, but after the mild reaction Thursday, investors seem over the shock of CEO Tom Albanese’s sudden resignation and evidently like what they see.

 

BP: How Much Oil Is Being Spilled?

It's a simple question. And unfortunately for the people of British Petroleum (BP) and the federal government, one whose answer has resulted in a considerable amount of self-inflicted damage to both the company's and the Obama administration's credibility. That damage sits on top of the liability the company and country faces as a result of the explosion in the deep water drilling rig that resulted in one of the largest oil spills in U.S. history.

The reason why is because the company has continually and reluctantly had to revise its estimates of the amount of oil being spilled dramatically upward on several different occasions, as it has become obvious that the amount of oil leaking from the company's Deepwater Horizon drilling rig has far exceeded what it was claiming was being leaked.

ABC's John Allen Paulos reports:

How much oil has leaked into the Gulf of Mexico? Many, including BP, have made estimates and remarked on the difficulty of determining the answer.

As Steve Wereley, an engineering professor at Purdue University, has shown, however, and as many others would have shown had pictures of the leak been released earlier, an approximate estimate is quite easy to come by and indicates a vastly greater oil spill than BP has admitted....

Wereley said that the leak may be 20 percent more or less than his best estimate, but it's still far, far above the 5,000 barrels per day that BP kept proclaiming until very recently -- about 20 times as great.

Wereley's best estimate suggests that the amount of crude oil being leaked into the Gulf of Mexico from the BP rig is somewhere in the neighborhood of 70,000 to 90,000 barrels per day.

As Paulos notes, the method Wereley is using to determine his estimate is based upon the math for calculating the volume of a cylinder, which makes it really simple to determine the amount of oil that might have leaked from the drilling pipe.

So we converted that simple math into a tool which you can use to keep one step ahead of both BP and the government for better estimating the amount of crude going into the Gulf of Mexico. (Seeoriginal postfor the tool.) We've put in Wereley's estimates as the default data, but you're more than welcome to replace the figures with your own estimates or more accurate figures, either for this spill or perhaps for another spill altogether.

Using the default data, we estimate the amount of oil exiting the main drilling pipe break to be approximately 74,027 barrels per day. That figure does not account for any of the oil recovered through the steps BP has taken to reduce the amount of oil entering into the Gulf of Mexico, nor does it account for other leaks in the pipeline.

We'll close the post by noting the steps that BP's top leadership and its employees will be taking to address the damage to the company's credibility and reputation:

How To Find An Internship

Finding an appropriate internship can prove to be a particularly tedious and tricky task. Extreme competition joined with only a handful of internships up for grabs ; can significantly lower your chances of finding the location of your dreams. Fortunately though , there are methods and ways in which to make the method simpler. Here’s more.

The majority make the mistake of searching for an internship all alone without consulting the career service office at their college. Your college service office is probably going to be connected with a number of corporations attempting to find possible candidates to come work for them. They may be in communication with varsity alumni who are willing to provide leads for potential job openings. Therefore, it’s in your best interests to approach the office for info as well as assistance with the placement process.

The earlier you start, the better it is. If you take steps on time to control your cholesterol levels, you will be ready to avoid a whole lot of health hazards. Likewise, if you begin to look for an internship early, the chances of you missing possible opportunities are a lot lesser. If you start off early, the competition is early. What happens is that all scholars begin looking for an internship at approximately the same time. Therefore if you start off early, you’ve got little competition to face, which increases your chances of finding an internship.

In case, you currently have a company to mind, you must keep a close tab on the activities occurring in this company. Most often corporations keep fixed cut offs for receiving internship applications. So, if you don’t want to miss this deadline, you must be a repeated visitor of the firm’s web site. Same elementals lie behind other stuff like availing offers and rebates. In fact, you can’t afford to miss out on the much coveted Zenmed Special offers and so on by being slovenly.

Studying how to write effective resumes and cover letters is also important if you want to find an internship. Remember that your resume and cover letter, give your first impression and there’s no way that you can go far wrong with them. But, writing a good cover letter and resume alone isn’t enough. You have to make certain that these documents reach the right places too. This can require plenty of following up on your part.

You may consistently need to check in the associations where you have requested an internship. Whether you have requested an internship in a robot manufacturing company or an internal design firm, remember that chase up is very important.

The above tips, along with a little persistence ; will help you find the internship of your dreams minus the hassles.

Here are a few more ways to know about Control Your Cholesterol Levels and Zenmed Special Offers.

Railroad Stocks Calm in Face of Strike

Railroad stocks have remained calm even as the industry's labor situation moves closer to potential upheaval with each passing day.

The country's operators of Class I railroads remain in talks with three rail unions, who could opt to go on strike once a "cooling period" between the two parties ends at midnight on Dec. 6. The risk of a strike is mitigated however by a provision in the U.S. Constitution that could block any work stoppage.

See if (KSU) is in our portfolio

The "Commerce Clause," or Article I, Section 8, Clause 3 of the Constitution says that Congress has the enumerated power "To regulate Commerce ... among the several States," and Congress can invoke that clause to prevent the strike and save the country from losing an estimated $2 billion a day."A shutdown of our nation's railways, which would harm our economy and endanger many American jobs, is unacceptable," House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) said in a statement Tuesday. "The House is prepared to take legislative action in the days ahead to avert a job-destroying shutdown of our nation's railroads, in the event such legislation proves necessary."The railroad stocks moved modestly on Thursday with the biggest gainer of the day being Kansas City Southern(KSU), which closed at 68.77, up 74 cents, or 1.1%. The sector's biggest laggard was Norfolk Southern(NSC), which closed at $74.78, down 76 cents, or 1%.One railroad analyst, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that a rail stoppage is possible, but didn't think it would affect rail stocks in the long term."It would probably dip, but it wouldn't change the long-term thesis in rail. ... I would generally think that they [rail stocks] would get beat up -- frankly, the market could probably get beat up on it, because it is an economic issue," the analyst said. President Barack Obama established on Nov. 5 a Presidential Emergency Board to issue recommendations for the parties involved to reach a labor agreement. As of Thursday, 10 of the 13 major rail unions have reached agreements with the railroads.The three that remain -- Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, the American Train Dispatchers Association and the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees -- make up 40% of the 132,000 employees in the current round of bargaining, according to the National Railway Labor Conference.

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"During the busiest shipping and travel period of the year, a nationwide disruption of rail service would deal a crushing blow to our nation's economy, potentially costing our country $2 billion a day," A. Kenneth Gradia, the railroads' bargaining representative, said in a statement.

Although there's still a possibility of some 52,800 union employees striking, the market appears to be confident that a deal will be reached.

The remaining Class I public stocks were relatively flat on Thursday: CSX(CSX) closed at $21.73, up 2 cents, or 0.1%; Union Pacific(UNP) was at $102.93, down 48 cents, or 0.5%; Canadian National(CNI) slid to $77.27, down 29 cents, or 0.4%; Canadian Pacific(CP) finished at $60.29, up 11 cents, or 0.2%."The stocks are telling you that nothing's going to happen," a rail analyst said.>Follow Joe Deaux on Twitter. Subscribe on Facebook.

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Make Money in Promising Materials Stocks the Easy Way

Exchange-traded funds offer a convenient way to invest in sectors or niches that interest you. If you expect materials companies to prosper as our global economy regains its footing and construction and infrastructure rebuilding projects get under way, the iShares Dow Jones US Basic Materials ETF (NYSE: IYM  ) could save you a lot of trouble. Instead of trying to figure out which companies will perform best, you can use this ETF to invest in lots of them simultaneously.

The basics
ETFs often sport lower expense ratios than their mutual fund cousins. The iShares ETF's expense ratio -- its annual fee -- is a relatively low 0.47%.

This ETF has performed rather well, substantially outperforming the S&P 500, on average, over the past three, five, and 10 years. As with most investments, of course, we can't expect outstanding performances in every quarter or year. Investors with conviction need to wait for their holdings to deliver.

With a very low turnover rate of 7%, this fund isn't frantically and frequently rejiggering its holdings, as many funds do.

What's in it?
Several of this ETF's components made strong contributions to its performance over the past year. International Paper (NYSE: IP  ) gained about 22% and has been investing in growth, buying up most of an Indian paper company recently, for example, and recently making a successful bid for Temple-Inland (NYSE: TIN  ) . Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE: CLF  ) , meanwhile, is up 11% despite getting whacked by a big drop in the price of coal, though the long-term prospects for coal remain strong.

Other companies didn't add as much to the ETF's returns last year, but could have an effect in the years to come. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX  ) and Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO  ) shed about 9% and 21%, respectively, as the price of copper dropped. Interested investors should note that Southern Copper's fall temporarily left it with a dividend yield north of 8%. My colleague Jim Mueller, meanwhile, finds Freeport tantalizing with its low production costs and strong balance sheet.

Aluminum giant Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) shrank about 10%, but aluminum remains in strong demand commercially, and the company is benefitting from a little-known arrangement whereby Goldman Sachs maintains warehouses of aluminum and controls its release into the market.

The big picture
Demand for basic materials isn't going away anytime soon. A well-chosen ETF can grant you instant diversification across any industry or group of companies -- and make investing in and profiting from it that much easier.

Learn about the best dividend ETFs. And if you're looking for some great investments beyond ETFs, consider these 10 stocks for your retirement portfolio.

Sexy Matador Fights Pork Chops in New Target Ad

Target is promoting its grocery offerings with a new series of TV ads featuring, among other oddities, a sexy matador dueling with various packaged meats.

The commercials evoke the world of high fashion, showing models using grocery items in strange ways. In one of the ads, a pregnant woman tears open snack-food packages in a craving-induced fury, at one point showering herself with pickle juice. In another, a stiletto-wearing model strides among exploding boxes of cake mix, imploring viewers to "dominate that PTA bake sale."

Here's one of the Target ads:



Target (TGT) isn't running these ads just to make you feel weird feelings about pork chops and laundry detergent. Rather, it's part of a marketing push by the discount retailer to turn customers' focus to its grocery aisle -- and in so doing challenge Walmart (WMT), which has significantly expanded its grocery and fresh food business.

Target says that the campaign will ultimately encompass eight TV spots, three radio ads and digital short films that will run as banner ads. You can see the four ads released so far over at Target's YouTube page.

[UPDATE: Target has released four more TV spots, including one featuring a baby wipe-slinging cowgirl. You can check them out at AdWeek's AdFreak blog.]

Matt Brownell is the consumer and retail reporter for DailyFinance. You can reach him at Matt.Brownell@teamaol.com, and follow him on Twitter at @Brownellorama.

Get info on stocks mentioned in this article:
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Schwab Meets Expectations: Q4 Earnings 2012

Schwab CEO Walt Bettinger at Schwab Impact.

Charles Schwab (SCHW) said early Wednesday that its fourth-quarter 2012 net income was $211 million, up 29% from a year ago but down 15% from the previous quarter. Earnings per share in the period were $0.15, a jump of 15% from last year and a decline of 21% from the third quarter.

Sales rose 9% year over year to $1.215 billion from $1.113 billion and 2% from last quarter’s $1.196.

Equity analysts had expected the firm’s fourth-quarter EPS to be $0.15 and its sales to be $1.21 billion.

Net income for the twelve months ended Dec. 31 was $928 million, up 7% from 2011. (Schwab’s 2012 results include an after-tax gain of about $44 million relating to the resolution of a vendor dispute and a non-recurring state tax benefit of some $20 million, which were recorded in the second and third quarters, respectively.)

“Our individual client loyalty scores reached new highs during the year, and our client metrics ended strongly, with December core net new assets totaling a record $22.6 billion, 28% higher than the previous record set in March 2008,” said CEO and President Walt Bettinger, in a press release.

“Core net new assets totaled $112.4 billion for 2012, up 37% over the prior year. We ended the year with a record $1.95 trillion in total client assets, up 16% over December 2011. We added 900,000 new brokerage accounts to our client base during 2012, and active brokerage accounts reached a record 8.8 million at year-end, up 3% year over year. In addition, we served 865,000 banking accounts and 1.6 million corporate retirement plan participants as of month-end December 2012, up 11% and 5%, respectively.”

The level of clients’ daily trading was 450,000 in the fourth quarter, down 2% year over year but up 12% from the third quarter. The average revenue per revenue trade rose 2% year over year to $12.49 million in the most-recent period.

Net new assets were $64.4 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $20.4 in the third quarter and $21.5 billion a year ago. Asset inflows for the Advisor Services unit were $24.4 billion vs. $9.5 billion and $9.2 billion respectively.

On a monthly basis, Schwab’s overall net new assets were $24.7 billion in October, $16.23 billion in November and $23.5 billion in December, a 45% jump over the flows in December 2011. For the full year, net new assets increased 124% and total client assets were nearly $1.952 trillion—an increase of 2% from November 2012 and 16% from December 2011.

Advisor Services’ level of client assets was $788.5 billion as of Dec. 31, up from $762.3 billion in the prior quarter and $679.0 billion a year before.

Asset management and administrative fees companywide were $539 million in the fourth quarter of 2012 vs. $458 last year. They totaled $2.04 billion for the full year vs. $1.93 billion in 2011. Schwab notes that its December 2012 net inflows included $900 million from its acquisition of Thomas Partners. Some $4.5 billion of November 2012 flows were from a mutual fund clearing services client, and October 2012 flows encompassed inflows of $15.7 billion from a mutual fund clearing-services client.

“By continuing to challenge the status quo in investing services we believe that both our clients and the company win,” Bettinger added. “Our progress in completing and delivering a number of significant innovations in our client service capabilities remained on track throughout 2012. For example, our new index-based 401(k) offering has 41 companies committed to participate and more than 200 actively considering enrollment; our new independent branches were open in 12 locations by year-end; and our expanded mobile and tablet solutions are already being utilized by over half a million clients.”

Check out the Fourth Quarter 2012 Earnings Calendar at AdvisorOne.

Is Arrow Electronics Working Hard Enough for You?

Margins matter. The more Arrow Electronics (NYSE: ARW  ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, so I can compare them to current and potential competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong Arrow Electronics's competitive position could be.

Here's the current margin snapshot for Arrow Electronics over the trailing 12 months: Gross margin is 13.6%, while operating margin is 4.0% and net margin is 2.5%.

Unfortunately, a look at the most recent numbers doesn't tell us much about where Arrow Electronics has been, or where it's going. A company with rising gross and operating margins often fuels its growth by increasing demand for its products. If it sells more units while keeping costs in check, its profitability increases. Conversely, a company with gross margins that inch downward over time is often losing out to competition, and possibly engaging in a race to the bottom on prices. If it can't make up for this problem by cutting costs -- and most companies can't -- then both the business and its shares face a decidedly bleak outlook.

Of course, over the short term, the kind of economic shocks we recently experienced can drastically affect a company's profitability. That's why I like to look at five fiscal years' worth of margins, along with the results for the trailing 12 months, the last fiscal year, and last fiscal quarter (LFQ). You can't always reach a hard conclusion about your company's health, but you can better understand what to expect, and what to watch.

Here's the margin picture for Arrow Electronics over the past few years.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Because of seasonality in some businesses, the numbers for the last period on the right -- the TTM figures -- aren't always comparable to the FY results preceding them. To compare quarterly margins to their prior-year levels, consult this chart.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Here's how the stats break down:

  • Over the past five years, gross margin peaked at 14.3% and averaged 13.3%. Operating margin peaked at 4.5% and averaged 3.8%. Net margin peaked at 2.8% and averaged 1.0%.
  • TTM gross margin is 13.6%, 30 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM operating margin is 4.0%, 20 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM net margin is 2.5%, 150 basis points better than the five-year average.

With recent TTM operating margins exceeding historical averages, Arrow Electronics looks like it is doing fine.

Looking for alternatives to Arrow Electronics? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add Arrow Electronics to My Watchlist.

Rio Tinto gets knocked as CEO leaves; FTSE up

MADRID (MarketWatch) � Shares of Rio Tinto PLC retreated after the departure of its top executive and a $14 billion charge taken by the mining company, but they had trimmed their decline by the close of London trading Thursday as the broader market found support on the back of upbeat U.S. economic data.

The U.K.�s FTSE 100 index UK:UKX �rose 0.5% to end at 6,132.36. The benchmark had closed at 6,103.98, off 0.2%, in Wednesday trading.

Mike McCudden, head of derivatives at stockbroker Interactive Investor, said the biggest test for markets this week remains Chinese data due Friday. Mining stocks, a heavyweight sector in the London market, are especially sensitive to economic signals out of China.

Click to Play Lessons of the �London Whale�

What a report on activities gone awry in J.P. Morgan Chase's London investment office shows.

�We are however continuing to see profit-taking from investors thanks to the recent rally but as yesterday�s performance showed, with every wave of selling there emerges a new tranche of investors ready to buy in on the dips,� he wrote in emailed comments.

Economic data from the U.S. inspired some afternoon gains for London stocks, including housing starts for December that surged to a four-year high, blowing past economists� forecasts. On Wall Street, shares scored broad gains. See: U.S. stocks rise as economic view brightens.

Shares of Rio Tinto RIO UK:RIO fell 0.5%, partially recovering after an earlier fall of more than 2%. The catalyst was Tom Albanese�s departure as chief executive on news that the Anglo-Australian mining group will book a $14 billion impairment charge. Read: Rio Tinto CEO steps down after $14 billion charge

Citigroup, however, lifted its rating on Rio Tinto to buy from neutral and advised investors not to overreact to the day�s news.

�One of our structural bearish criticisms of the sector has been poor capital allocation, and lack of shareholder focus. We believe today�s announcement could significantly realign Rio Tinto with shareholder interests through reduced M&A and reduced capex spend,� the analysts said in a note.

Also on the downside, shares of Aberdeen Asset Management PLC UK:ADN fell 1.7%. Assets under management at the fiscal-year end rose to 187.2 billion pounds from 169.9 billion pounds, the company said.

On the upside, shares of Associated British Foods PLC UK:ABF jumped 3.2%. The diversified food, ingredients and retail company reported revenue for the first 16 weeks was 10% ahead of last year, adding that it now expects to make more progress in full-year adjusted operating profit.

Reuters A worker winds aluminum and iron wires used to making electrical power lines at a factory on the outskirts of Jammu in September 2011.

Banks also moved higher in London, with shares HSBC Holdings PLC HBC UK:HSBA moving up 1.1% and Barclays PLC UK:BARC BCS adding 0.9%.

Deutsche Bank released a positive note on the sector Thursday, with analysts turning more cautiously optimistic on the trend for provisions for payment protection insurance. Many U.K. banks have had to take provisions for the �misselling �of such insurance.

�Though we would not be surprised to see �top-ups� to provision levels in 4Q12 results, we think banks already hold significant capacity for future repayments at current claim rates, and that recent redress and search volumes suggest claims may be slowing,� the analysts wrote in a note.

Top Stocks To Buy For 1/17/2013-3

Raytheon Company NYSE:RTN declined 0.48% closed at $47.20 and its overall trading volume during the last session was 5.21 million shares. The net profit margin was 7.39% while 5year income growth rate remained 38.93%.


Honeywell International Inc. NYSE:HON dropped 0.54% closed at $51.17 and its overall trading volume during the last session was 3.11 million shares. The net profit margin was 6.41% while 5year income growth rate remained 11.56%.

United Technologies Corporation NYSE:UTX decreased 0.42% closed at $78.41 and its overall trading volume during the last session was 2.70 million shares. The net profit margin was 8.63% while 5year income growth rate remained 7.45%.

Fluor Corporation (NEW) NYSE:FLR plunged 0.24% closed at $61.62 and its overall trading volume during the last session was 2.68 million shares. The net profit margin was 2.20% while 5year income growth rate remained 29.45%.

Lock in a Fast-Rising Dividend with this Retirement Savings Stock

The best dividend-paying stocks are often familiar names that have been around forever, but don't get much attention from analysts. And right now is the best time to invest in stocks that pretty much provide investors with a steady stream of income that grows bigger year after year.  

Such is the case with Western Union (NYSE: WU), the global leader in money-transfer services. Going strong since the 1850s, the company went public in 2006 when it was spun off from First Data.

Not many analysts pay attention to this stock, but dividend investors should find a lot to like about Western Union. It has a leading market share, 10 years of relatively consistent growth, a business model that produces enormous amounts of cash flow and a firm commitment to returning more of its cash to investors. This is what we here at StreetAuthority refer to as a Retirement Savings Stock. 

Most of the world is familiar with the Western Union brand and millions of people use the company's services to wire money on a daily basis. Last year, Western Union handled 226 million customer transactions worth more than $81 billion. At present, the company has 510,000 locations in more than 200 countries and territories.

You might be worried that PayPal and other online money-transfer tools are making Western Union's services extinct, but so far, that hasn't been the case. In fact, the company has continued to grow steadily, increasing sales and earnings even during the recession.

There are several reasons for this company's reliable growth. First, Western Union's customers often don't have bank accounts or Internet access. Many are immigrant workers who use the company's services to send much-needed funds home to their families. Also, these customers seek a money-transfer middleman that's reliable and trustworthy. As one of the world's best-known brands, Western Union has a global network that is nearly 80% larger than its next largest competitor, MoneyGram International (NYSE: MGI). The company controls 18% of the wire-transfer market, which is three times the market share of MoneyGram.

A major advantage that comes with Western Union's superior size is greater economies of scale. Western Union's costs per transaction are lower than competitors, according to management. Because of this, the company has been able to maintain operating margins consistently above 25%. This compares favorably to the operating margins of MoneyGram at just 15%. 

Western Union's business is also easily scalable, typically providing a rich 17% return on capital (due to low capital costs) and generating more than $1.1 billion of cash flow annually. With fixed costs accounting for less than 40% of overall costs, every incremental transaction adds value to Western Union's bottom line.

During the third-quarter of 2012, Western Union's year-over-year revenue improved 1% to $1.42 billion, net income jumped 12% to $270 million and earnings rose 18% from to 45 cents per share.

Despite these strong results, the company business is being negatively affected by compliance-related charges and competitive-pricing pressures in some markets. As a result, Western Union plans to implement new cost-cutting initiatives and reduce its prices in some markets. These are the main reasons for a 5% reduction in full-year 2012 earnings guidance to $1.62 a share and a 10-15% decline in 2013 earnings guidance. Cost-cutting initiatives are expected to pay off, however, with more than $30 million of annual cost savings by 2014.

The stock market's response to the reduction in earnings guidance was a massive sell-off that dropped Western Union's share price to a three-year low, as you can see in the chart below. These shares have since regained some ground, but are still priced 25% below where they were just one year ago. 

This sell-off has made Western Union incredibly undervalued. The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 7, which represents a five-year low and roughly one-third of the industry P/E of 20. This meltdown occurred despite a 25% increase in Western Union's dividend to a new annual rate of 50 cents a share, which yields a generous 3.6%. In addition, Western Union announced plans for $750 million worth of share repurchases that will help to enhance future earnings growth. 

Company insiders clearly see the sell-off as a buying opportunity and have been loading up shares. In November 2012, top officers and directors together purchased 53,660 Western Union shares, currently valued at close to $7.5 million.

Although Western Union's growth will likely slow in 2013 due to more competitive pricing, analysts say the company could return to 9% earnings gains by 2014 and average 9% growth in each of the next five years. The remittance market Western Union serves is returning to steady 5% annual growth after a brief downturn during the recession. In addition, the company is increasing its market penetration in the United States and Europe, expanding its network in Asia and leveraging new digital delivery channels. Western Union anticipates five-fold growth in its digital business during the next three years and achieving $500 million in digital revenue by 2015. 

With annual cash flow exceeding $1 billion, Western Union has plenty of capital to support these expansion plans and future dividend growth. Dividend payout is just 19%, which leaves ample room for more double-digit dividend hikes. 

Risks to Consider: Western Union plans to boost market share erosion for its Vigo money-transfer business in Latin America by reducing prices. While lowering prices will likely help the company improve market share, profit margins will also shrink. Western Union plans to maintain high margins through cost-cutting. The company is also stepping up investments in new technologies. These investments should help the company's competitive positioning in the long-run, but will result in short-term increases in operating costs.

Taxes are Watering Down Your Beer


Inflation in the UK isn't boding well for the nation's high population of beer drinkers.

Austerity measures that have descended upon the nation in the midst of the European financial crisis are hitting industries hard, and now the beer industry is starting to feel the pressure.

Dutch company Heineken announced it would reduce the alcohol content in its John Smith's Extra Smooth from 3.8 percent to 3.6 percent.

Duties are lower on beers with lower alcohol content, an aim from the government to reduce a growing alcohol problem, which drove Heineken's decision.

But it turns out the duty cut isn't enough. The price for a pint of the beer will also rise by 2.5 percent...after the alcohol content is reduced.

Heineken claims that this will do nothing to affect the quality of its brew.

From the Financial Times:

“Extensive research conducted with retailers and consumers consistently confirmed that a 0.2 per cent reduction in [alcohol content] does not compromise on the taste and quality,” a Heineken UK spokesman said, adding that the company would invest cost savings “in the brewing and marketing of John Smith's”.

A spokesman for the British Beer and Pub Association agrees with these statements. Though he doesn't think many other brands will follow John Smith's lead, his association has found that British beer drinkers have developed a taste for these weaker brews.

But real life beer sellers disagree. A Grimethorpe working men's club near the John Smith brewery is less than thrilled, and owners are taking a stand. Club secretary Philip Evans told the Financial Times:

“The brewery wants to weaken the beer and raise the price. We are going to sit the rep down and tell him it either goes down or it goes out.”

It turns out beer prices have been on the rise for quite a while. A beer duty that kicked in in 2008 has caused the price of beer to grow 2 percent above inflation annually since then.

A similar issue has become prevalent in the U.S., though with a non-alcoholic beverage. Coffee makers are switching their beans from the high quality Arabica beans to cheaper, more bitter Robusta. The move is also driven by inflation, and the change is apparent in the flavor.

Will British beer drinkers notice as well? If nothing else, they're sure to notice the tug on their wallets.

John Smith's Extra Smooth could become a thing of the past...

 

Don’t Wait for the Parade to Buy

�They don�t ring a bell when the market turns.�
— Old Wall Street axiom

Stocks are going higher.

The bond market is weakening.

The tides are turning. Without hesitation, you must now make a plan to strategically buy stocks.

I understand how difficult it is to switch mental gears and embrace an asset class that has caused so much suffering over the past 13 years. But you have to realize that a major market turning point like this isn�t marked by fanfare and bravado.

They�re not going to throw a ticker tape parade along Wall Street to mark the beginnings of a powerful rally. And stock market missionaries aren�t going to interrupt your Saturday morning breakfast to tell you how equities are set to take the investing world by storm.

Quite the opposite, actually.

Unfortunately, when the parade does finally come barreling down your street, you�ll know you�re too late. By the time you�re receiving stock tips from the 14-year-old kid who cuts your grass, the bulk of the rally will have already passed you by.

The opportunity is presenting itself right now. So you need to ask yourself: Where do I want my money in 2013?
My colleague Jonas Elmerraji summed it up perfectly last weekend:

�At some point, all of that missed opportunity is going to be tough to ignore for the folks sitting with their cash on the sidelines. And that, in turn, should help to fuel stock buying in 2013. For the past few years, the decision of where to park your money has come down to this: Would you rather park your cash in treasuries and guarantee your principal slowly get eaten away by inflation, or would you rather put your money in stocks and get a potentially higher return in exchange for more risk?

�A glimpse at treasuries over that time period tells you which option most folks have been choosing — by now, you know that it�s not stocks.�

Here�s what you should know right now as you begin to plan your approach:

1. Fear is quietly subsiding.

For much of last year, large-cap stocks that pay dividends were very much in favor as an indecisive market whipped back and forth. Stocks ended the year on a high note with double-digit gains intact for the S&P 500. But that doesn�t mean investors felt very good about their prospects.

In reality, 2012 was a year of uncertainty for Main Street and Wall Street alike. Fund managers underperformed. And average investors continued to pull money out of stock funds at a record rate.

But this time around, riskier assets — such as small-cap stocks — are leading the rally. After months of lackluster performance, the Russell 2000 posted gains of 5% last week. That beats out all the major indexes — including the red-hot Nasdaq. For comparison�s sake, the S&P rose about 4% during 2013�s first week of trading.

Eager buyers fighting to get into riskier small-cap names shows us that much of the fear out there is beginning to go away.

2. Healthy rallies are stair steps — not rockets.

The market is up big so far this year. But that doesn�t mean it will continue to climb at this pace as the rally matures.

Every rally has its pullbacks. So when you do find a name you like, don�t get caught up in the day-to-day emotions of the markets and buy when the S&P is up 2% on the day. Instead, keep an eye on how the market behaves on consolidation days. As pressure is released, countless buying opportunities will emerge.

Look to buy your favorite names as they bounce off their short-term moving averages in the coming weeks.

Goldman Sachs: Laughter As Viniar Pressed on Bad Deals

Laughter — Laughter! — burst out in the chamber of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations after Senator Carl Levin asked Goldman Sachs (GS) CFO David Viniar if it was right for Goldman sales executives to describe various structured products as “a shitty deal” at the same time they were selling such products to Goldman customers.

Viniar replied, “It’s very unfortunate.”

Levin shot back, “It’s unfortunate? Is it right?”

“No, I don’t think it’s right to have that appear in an email,” conceded Viniar.

“But is it right to have sales people selling those products?” said Levin.

“No, it’s not right,” Viniar added.

3 Stocks That Blew the Market Away

Don't settle for ordinary quarterly reports.

Every week,�I take a look at three companies that beat market expectations, since I believe that it's the biggest factor in a stock beating the market. Leaving Wall Street's pros with stunned expressions can be a good thing. It usually means that the companies have more in the tank than analysts figured. Capital appreciation typically follows.

Let's take a look at a few companies that humbled the pros over the past few trading days.

We can start with TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO  ) .

The DVR pioneer was expected to post a widening deficit of $0.22 a share. TiVo came through with a huge profit, though it was entirely the handiwork of a massive $78.4 million that came in as part of a $250 million settlement from Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) . One of the neat things about TiVo is that it's rich in patents that cable and satellite television providers need if they want to offer many of the basic DVR functions.

Backing out the money that Verizon shelled out to get its FiOS broadband television service off the ground -- as investors should -- TiVo posted a loss, but it was much smaller than the $27 million to $29 million deficit that it was originally projecting.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ: GMCR  ) is also percolating nicely. Shares of the company behind the Keurig single-cup brewer soared 30% last week after it poured out blowout quarterly results.

Wall Street figured that the java giant would earn just $0.48 a share, just ahead of the $0.47 a share it served up a year earlier.

Nope. Adjusted earnings soared 36% to $0.64 a share.

Finally, we have Workday (NYSE: WDAY  ) not calling in sick for its first quarterly report as a public company. The provider of cloud-based enterprise software solutions has been a big winner since going public at $28 less than two months ago. Workday's quarterly loss of $0.39 a share may not seem all that impressive, but the pros were betting on $0.57 a share in red ink.

Moving in the right direction
It's important to keep watching the companies that surpass expectations. Over time, it will be a lucrative experience for investors as the market rewards the overachievers. That's the kind of surprise that we look for�in the�Rule Breakers�newsletter service. Want in? Check out a�30-day trial subscription. If that's not up your alley just yet, you can still check out a premium report containing our�recommendation for how to play Green mountain.�In it you'll find everything you need to know about the company, including whether it's a buy at today's prices. Click here for instant access.

Either way, come back next week to learn about more stocks that blew the market away in the coming days.

Is QEP Resources the Perfect Stock?

Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?

One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, then decide if QEP Resources (NYSE: QEP  ) fits the bill.

The quest for perfection
Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:

  • Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
  • Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
  • Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
  • Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
  • Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
  • Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at QEP Resources.

Factor

What We Want to See

Actual

Pass or Fail?

Growth 5-Year Annual Revenue Growth > 15% 11.5% Fail
1-Year Revenue Growth > 12% 40.6% Pass
Margins Gross Margin > 35% 54.6% Pass
Net Margin > 15% 8.5% Fail
Balance Sheet Debt to Equity < 50% 51.0% Fail
Current Ratio > 1.3 1.28 Fail
Opportunities Return on Equity > 15% 8.4% Fail
Valuation Normalized P/E < 20 23.10 Fail
Dividends Current Yield > 2% 0.2% Fail
5-Year Dividend Growth > 10% NM NM
Total Score 2 out of 9

Source: S&P Capital IQ. NM = not meaningful; QEP started paying a dividend in Aug. 2010. Total score = number of passes.

With only two points, QEP Resources isn't showing much energy. But the oil and gas company sees things picking up this year as it adapts to changing conditions in the energy markets.

As an independent producer, QEP has properties across the U.S., ranging from the Haynesville area of Louisiana to North Dakota's Bakken region and various areas along the Rocky Mountains. In addition to producing oil and gas, the Denver-based company also processes, stores, and markets natural gas.

But gas producers in particular have had a tough time lately. Rock-bottom prices have prompted many players to make strategic shifts. Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK  ) said last month that it would cut its dry gas rig count in half, cut capital expenditures on gas projects, and shut in some natural gas production. Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN  ) is putting 90% of its new capital spending toward oil and liquids projects rather than natural gas. Even small producer Carrizo Oil & Gas (Nasdaq: CRZO  ) has moved a lot more of its capital budget toward liquids in the Eagle Ford and Niobrara areas.

Yet just last week, QEP announced better-than-expected earnings results. Even more importantly, though, the company said that it would join the trend and move predominantly toward oil production this year, cutting back on capital spending for gas projects. Although QEP cut its 2012 earnings guidance, the move seems justified based on the slump in natural gas.

For QEP to improve, it simply needs the energy markets to cooperate. If oil stays high and gas rebounds, then the sky's the limit for QEP and many of its small peers. If the glut of gas continues, though, QEP will need its oil and liquids plays to pay off.

Keep searching
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.

QEP Resources may not be a perfect stock, but we've got some ideas you may like better. Let me invite you to learn about three smart long-term stock plays in the Fool's latest special report. It's yours for the taking and is absolutely free, but don't miss out -- click here and read it today.

Click here to add QEP Resources to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Genworth Shares Surged: What You Need to Know

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of insurer Genworth Financial (NYSE: GNW  ) were rocketing higher today, gaining as much as 16% in intraday trading after a Citigroup (NYSE: C  ) analyst put a buy rating on the company's shares.

So what: According to Bloomberg, Citigroup's Colin Devine had a sell rating on Genworth shares between August 2009 and earlier this month. Now he's gone the full 180 and slapped a buy on the stock. Why? The simple answer is that shares are cheap.

Specifically, Devine thinks the market has overblown the possibility that Genworth will go belly-up. The U.S. mortgage market that Genworth insures is far from healthy -- further losses are likely ahead and new business won't exactly be booming. But with the stock badly beaten down, Devine thinks the opportunity outweighs the risk.

Now what: As an owner of Genworth stock myself, I'm certainly happy about what the stock's doing today. However, it's important to keep in mind that this doesn't change the fundamental picture at Genworth -- it's just one particular view on that fundamental picture. While Devine's bullish call might be a good reason to give the company a second look, investors will want to make sure they have their own buying thesis before joining the crowd today in the buying frenzy.

Want to keep up to date on Genworth Financial? Add it to your watchlist.

Two Billion-Dollar News Stories No One Even Noticed

Two things happened Thursday that 99.9% of investors don't know about.

The fortunate few who do -- and who have acted on their knowledge -- are poised to reap serious profits. Today I'll tell you what these investors know, what happened Thursday, and, most important, how you can profit from what's going to happen next.

We begin with five brief background notes.

(1) The United States uses 382 million gallons of gasoline every day. Not only is gasoline "dirty," it's also derived from oil. And though there's plenty of oil for the foreseeable future, it's ultimately a finite resource that the world is going to exhaust.

 

(2) After considering America's utter dependency on foreign trading partners to meet its energy needs, and with environmental concerns in mind, Congress surveyed the technological landscape in search of an alternative, a new, green energy solution that could help wean the country from oil. It came up with biofuel.

(3) The 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act, passed and signed in the Bush era but supported by President Obama, establishes a federally mandated timetable for the production of biofuel. This contains three components. The first is "Renewable" fuel, which is traditional corn-based ethanol. Current production is about 12 billion gallons a year, and the timetable pushes ethanol to a ceiling of 15 billion gallons in 2015, where the target remains until 2022. The second biofuel in the timetable is biodiesel, which, at this point, is not significant. But the third is: It's an "Advanced" biofuel called cellulosic ethanol.

(4) Cellulosic ethanol is made by converting the sugar in all plant life, called cellulose, into alcohol. (You do this backward, incidentally, every time you have a drink.) This process can be accomplished several ways but the most promising is using enzymes to push the process along. Cellulosic ethanol can be blended with traditional motor fuels like gasoline. The current Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standard allows for up to 10% ethanol, though that's slated to rise to 15% and some in Congress have sought to push it higher. So-called "flex-fuel" vehicles can burn up to 85% ethanol, or "E85," which you may have seen advertised.

(5) While the federal timetable limits corn-based ethanol to +25% growth, the output from 2010 levels will rise from 6.5 million gallons this year to 16 billion gallons in 2022, an increase of an astonishing +246,053%. I should note, however, that this was not Congress' intent. The original law called for 100 million gallons a year but the timetable was amended by the EPA. The growth rate from 100 million gallons to 16 billion gallons is still +15,900%.

Now I want to tell you the two things that happened Thursday.

Item No. 1: Wall Street endorses the inevitable future of cellulosic ethanol.

Thursday morning shares of a company called Codexis (Nasdaq: CDXS) went on sale through an initial public offering. Codexis, an enzyme maker, is a joint venture of Royal Dutch Shell and some other investors, notably a little pharma company called Maxygen (Nasdaq: MAXY).

Codexis is a serious biofuel player because of its connection to Shell and because of a recent $12 billion deal between Shell and Brazil's Cosan (NYSE: CZZ), one of the largest ethanol makers in the world.

There's a lot of inside baseball with these deals, but the bottom line is this: Big Oil is behind cellulosic ethanol because it sees it as the next chapter in energy. Thursday's IPO was further evidence that Wall Street is taking notice of the huge profit potential. The IPO rose modestly its first day and was up again this morning.

Item No. 2: A major producer makes a projection.

Poet, a privately held ethanol producer, one of the country's largest, made a big projection. It said it would produce 3.5 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol by 2022. That was a year familiar to followers of the biofuel story: It's the last year in the federal government's timetable. Poet is claiming it will produce 22% of the country's cellulosic ethanol. It will derive its cellulosic ethanol from biomass like wheat straw, switchgrass and municipal waste.

CEO Jeff Broin said Congress has set "a lofty goal." He's right. But this nation is in the business of achieving lofty things. We have smart people who figure things out. And though the road of discovery has been long, there is no reason that Congress' goal can't be reached. There is no reason it can't be exceeded.

The takeaway for investors is not about Poet and it's not even about Codexis. The takeaway is that cellulosic ethanol technology is ready. This technology can be profitably used. The science has been worked out. It's no longer an experiment talked about in college labs. Using enzymes to create biofuel on a massive commercial scale is no longer a utopian dream. It's a reality. It's coming. Big oil is betting on it. Wall Street is on board with financing. Uncle Sam has written the demand into law and is funding some plants itself. All of these factors will converge in the coming years to deliver Gold Rush-size profits.

The question is who is going to strike it rich and who is going to go bust.

One of the leaders in cellulosic ethanol is a company called Dyadic International (OTC: DYAI). This company has already delivered a +200% gain to readers of my Government-Driven Investing newsletter. Dyadic is an enzyme maker whose technology is vital to the production process. Codexis, in a regulatory filing, said that losing its relationship with Dyadic would materially affect its ability to do business. Through non-exclusive licensing, Dyadic will receive a royalty on billions of gallons of celluslosic ethanol a year -- without building expensive refineries or pipelines. All it has to do is deliver its enzymes and collect a check. As it does, this tiny company could well see price appreciation to match the +15,900% growth that cellulosic ethanol will see. I don't think I've ever seen a company with more potential.

Top Stocks To Buy For 1/2/2013-1

Telvent Git, S.A (NASDAQ:TLVT) witnessed volume of 8.87 million shares during last trade however it holds an average trading capacity of 219,788.00 shares. TLVT last trade opened at $39.73 reached intraday low of $39.66 and went +15.34% up to close at $39.73.

TLVT has a market capitalization $1.34 billion and an enterprise value at $1.66 billion. Trailing twelve months price to sales ratio of the stock was 1.11 while price to book ratio in most recent quarter was 2.38. In profitability ratios, net profit margin in past twelve months appeared at 6.28% whereas operating profit margin for the same period at 10.55%.

The company made a return on asset of 3.87% in past twelve months and return on equity of 14.20% for similar period. In the period of trailing 12 months it generated revenue amounted to $1.04 billion gaining $30.99 revenue per share. Its year over year, quarterly growth of revenue was 3.80% holding -9.40% quarterly earnings growth.

According to preceding quarter balance sheet results, the company had $89.41 million cash in hand making cash per share at 2.65. The total of $636.91 million debt was there putting a total debt to equity ratio 130.24. Moreover its current ratio according to same quarter results was 1.16 and book value per share was 14.48.

Looking at the trading information, the stock price history displayed that its S&P500 52 Week Change illustrated 19.68% where the stock price exhibited up beat from its 50 day moving average with $30.84 and remained above from its 200 Day Moving Average with $28.29.

TLVT holds 33.72 million outstanding shares with 17.60 million floating shares where insider possessed 45.07% and institutions kept 42.40%.

4-Star Stocks Poised to Pop: Activision Blizzard

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, video game giant Activision Blizzard (Nasdaq: ATVI  ) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Activision's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Activision facts

Headquarters (Founded) Santa Monica, Calif.
Market Cap $13.6 billion
Industry Home entertainment software
Trailing-12-Month Revenue $4.77 billion
Management President/CEO Robert Kotick
COO/CFO Thomas Tippl
Trailing-12-Month Return on Equity 6.2%
Cash/Debt $2.94 billion / $0
Dividend Yield 1.4%
Competitors Electronic Arts (Nasdaq: ERTS  )
Sony (NYSE: SNE  )
Take-Two Interactive (Nasdaq: TTWO  )

Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 97% of the 7,006 members who have rated Activision believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bulls include All-Star Dukenewkirk, who is ranked in the top 10% of our community, and Raylanw.

Just last month, Dukenewkirk tapped Activision as a clear bargain opportunity:

Absolutely, undeniably and several more powerful adjectives apply here when I make the bold assertion that this company is best in breed. ... It is absolutely beyond me the stock still languishes between $11 and $12. Silly, just silly. The cash flow is phenomenal right now.

In fact, Activision boasts a whopping trailing-12-month free cash flow margin of 24%. That's much higher than that of rivals Electronics Arts (7.3%), Sony (4.7%), and Take-Two (5.4%).

CAPS member Raylanw elaborates on the Activision bull case:

With growing revenue, apparent stock buyback and cash stocked up ... this company looks like a great value buy. As a consumer of this company, their upcoming releases and current franchises will keep their position at the top of the gaming industry for at least two years if not more. With Diablo 3 coming up with an auction system, they may be moving toward a groundbreaking concept which may catapult them past ERTS recent social gaming plays. Lastly, their revenue and earnings have been impressive whereas their stock has more or less stayed flat which further leads me to believe this is a great value pick.

What do you think about Activision Blizzard, or any other stock for that matter? If you want to retire rich, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Owning exceptional stocks is a surefire way to secure your financial future, and on Motley Fool CAPS, thousands of investors are working every day to find them. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

Why the U.S. Dollar Will Fade as Gold Heads Higher

One of the key technical signals we were looking for in anticipation of a new major rally in gold was a close above the 50-day moving average. Well, last week gold delivered that signal, twice.

Whilst we still need to see a close above $1220 to confirm this move, we are now very confident that a major rally in gold prices will begin in earnest in the next couple of weeks. (Click to enlarge)

Last week we wrote how we were expecting a rebound in the US dollar from oversold conditions. Sure enough, the rebound in the USD did eventuate, with the index rising from 80 to almost 83 in a matter of days.

However, we had thought that this rebound in the US dollar would cause gold prices to fall slightly, but this did not happen, instead we saw gold prices increasing with the USD.

This recent positive correlation between the USD and gold has caught our attention, since over the past few years the two have tended to have been negatively correlated, with gold moving inversely to the USD with some leverage factor.

By simply putting together some charts of gold versus the US dollar over the course of this gold bull market. it become clear that although the relationship is largely inverse, there are periods where the two move together.

We do not claim to be specialists in the field of market cycles, however it appears to us that after roughly four years of moving inversely, gold and the USD then began to move together for roughly seven months, before moving inversely again for another four years. They have now been moving together to approximately eight months, so if the pattern described above were to continue then one would expect the US dollar and gold to begin moving inversely to each other very soon, and for this negative relationship to continue for four or so years to come.

Since we are bearish on the USD and bullish on gold over the next few years, this general cyclical analysis fits with our current outlook.

In conclusion, although the inverse relationship between gold and the USD does not always hold, this has not affected our gold price forecasts. We think gold will make a new all time high before the end of the year, and probably challenge $1300.

Disclosure: Author has no position in GLD but is long gold

Apple: Calculating the Steve Jobs Premium

What is Apple (AAPL) stock going to do now that Steve Jobs has taken another medical leave of absence? Let’s review what we know:

  • On June 9, 2008 Steve appeared on stage to showcase the iPhone 3G and looked thin. To start the day, AAPL was trading at $184.79, and it ended the day at $181.61. It went on a month long selloff until it was priced at $166.90 the day of Apple’s earnings release. During the conference call on July 21st, Apple management mentioned that Steve’s health was a private matter and that he would not be leaving the company. On this news AAPL dropped 10% to $146.53 as Wall Street didn’t fall for the bluff. Sure enough, on July 23rd, Jobs mentioned that he had a surgical procedure earlier in the year and the stock languished in the $150s until August. An important observation is that the initial drop down to $146 did not hold as the next day the stock reached $168, a higher price than before the earnings announcement. By August 2008, Apple traded in the $170s as the Street believed the health issue had been resolved.
  • On September 8, 2008 the stock dropped $13 from $164 and on September 9th the stock dropped down to $149 as Steve looked frail while introducing the iPod lineup. By the end of September, AAPL was down to $113 and in October it hit a low of $85.
  • On December 16, 2008 Apple announced that Steve would not be speaking at MacWorld and the stock dropped from $94 to $85 over a five day period.
  • On January 5, 2009 Steve announced his leave of absence and that Tim Cook would take over the day to day operations of the company. The stock began the day at $93 and dropped to $78 by January 20th, which would prove to be the low for the stock. By the end of January the stock was back into the $90s, by the end of March it was into the $100s, in April it was into the $120s, in May the $130s, and when Steve returned on June 29th, the shares had risen 66% to $143.
  • Interpreting history is no easy task because of the influence of forgotten variables; the big variable of 2008 and 2009 was obviously the financial crisis, which leaves investors with the difficult task of figuring out how much of the selloff was caused by the Steve Jobs effect. We calculate a 13.9% Steve Jobs selloff in July 2008 that all came in one day, a 10% selloff in September 2008 that lasted two days, a 10% selloff in December 2008 that lasted five days, and a 19% selloff at the actual leave of absence in January 2009 that lasted eleven days. The average of these four precedents is a 13% selloff over the course of five days. Such a selloff from the current price of $348.48 would bring the stock down to $303.

    However, the broad market is more improved than it was in 2008/2009, Apple is stronger than it was in 2008/2009, and Wall Street now knows that AAPL is capable of a rally without Steve Jobs at the helm. The problem with selling because of the health of Steve Jobs is that his premium is not even priced into the stock. If it were, AAPL would be at $750 a share. This stock TRADES on Steve Jobs, but it is not PRICED for Steve Jobs. The reality of valuation is that any selloff due to Steve Jobs' health concerns means the market is taking away something that is not there to begin with. Apple trades at a huge discount to its competitors based on cash and growth metrics.

    Our portfolio decisions regarding Apple will be based on the early price action. If we can't exit in the $330s, we will turn into buyers of the dip. The great thing about Apple is that its growth trajectory is protected by its multiyear advantage in innovation. This time around, with an improved market environment, investors might get over the Steve Jobs stock shock a lot quicker than they did in 2008/2009.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

    How To Generate Extra Cash In An Instant

    1) Your personal gold mine, can be staring you right in the face. Many of us save momentos for years for nostalgia or for that one time that we might need them. That time never seems to come though. Why not allow someone else to enjoy them as much as you have. These nick nacks may seem inconsequential or even like junk to you and may seem like buried treasure to some one else.

    Go through your closets. Clear off your bookshelves. Unload those dresser drawers and create streams of income. Turn that old typewriter into a writer's dream and earn extra pocket money. Take that nineteen fifties dress out of the closet and make a retro chick happy, while filling your bank account.

    With the invention of online auctions, like ebay and ubid, you can turn trash to cash. Or you can go to flea markets and offer your treasure up to vendors for half the profits. Books can be redeemed for a partial profit through sites like half.com or even amazon.com.

    Once you have emptied your own closets, you can scour the malls for sales and resell those items online. Or better yet find a deal on one online auction and resell it on another. The only lmitation lies within your own imagination.

    2) Have a brilliant idea or hobby? Turn it into an ebook. Write it using word or wordperfect and convert it into a pdf file using adobe 5.0. Then sell it on digibuy.com for 80% of the profits over and over again!

    3) Recently sell your home through owner financing? If you are holding a note, there are companies that will purchase it from you for upfront cash. You may have to take a bit of a discount and you will have a large portion of your cash today instead of thirty years from now.

    4) Won a lawsuit and recieving payments? You can do the same thing. Companies will actually pay you a large portion of what you won for the right to your payments. It's like taking the lump sum in a lottery winning!

    5) Don't have a business of your own and need extra cash? There are plenty of affiliate programs out there that would be delighted to give you a percentage of their profits, for the privalege of having you market their products. Choose programs that you have personally used, so you can attest to the quality. Also choose programs that are at least two tiered. This means that you get paid wether you make a sale or someone you referred to the program makes a sale. Just one good referal can bring you a steady stream of montly income.

    Worried about how you're going to pay your tax bill? It might be tempting to slap it on plastic.

    After all, you can charge your 2011 federal income taxes on a Visa, MasterCard, Discover Card or American Express. What if you want a filing extension? No problem. Just charge what you expect to owe the IRS. And if you owe estimated taxes for tax year 2012, you can charge those, too. In many states, you can put your state income-tax bill on plastic as well.

    Also See
    • Should Married Couples File Separately?
    • 5 Ways to Avoid an IRS Audit
    • The Tax Implications of Foreclosures

    Clearly, charging your taxes is convenient. And with the right card, you can even rack up some extra frequent-flier miles or other goodies to boot. So what's the big issue?

    The "convenience fee," that's what. It amounts to a hefty 1.89%, 2.29%, or 2.35% of the amount you charge, depending on the payment option. This is in lieu of the fee that merchants pay credit-card companies when you charge your purchases. Only in this case, the "merchant" is the Internal Revenue Service, and Uncle Sam isn't interested in turning a percentage of his revenues over to the card companies. That means you foot the bill in the form of the "convenience fee." Until now, you've probably been blissfully ignorant of merchant fees, but you'll become painfully aware of their bite when they come directly out of your own pocket. The money is collected by one of the four vendors that facilitate these transactions (payUSAtax.com, officialpayments.com, pay1040.com, and valuetaxpayment.com) and split with the card issuers.

    Granted, paying $9.40 for the convenience of charging a $400 tax bill to your credit card isn't really a sin. But what about paying $117.50 on a $5,000 tax bill? And unless you pay off that bill within your credit-card issuer's grace period, you'll start getting charged interest (often at 12% or more annually). Bottom line? You can probably find a better way to dig up the money to pay your tax bill.

    Perhaps your credit union, your parents or your rich brother-in-law. Also, don't overlook the IRS itself. You may qualify to set up an installment-payment plan with the government. If so, this may be the cheapest way to go. You'll be charged a $52 setup fee (assuming you arrange for automatic payments out of your checking account) and then a monthly interest rate on the outstanding balance. Currently, that interest rate is 0.5% per month (which equates to 6% annually). However, the interest rate is subject to change every quarter. File IRS Form 9465 to get that ball rolling.

    Of course, if you have a credit card with a low APR -- say 5% or less -- this could turn out to be the cheaper option. That is, provided you pay off your tab in a reasonable amount of time (i.e., before that introductory rate jumps up to something much higher). If so, visit officialpayments.com or pay1040.com to process your payment.

    Is Vector Group the Perfect Stock?

    Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?

    One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, then decide if Vector Group (NYSE: VGR  ) fits the bill.

    The quest for perfection
    Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:

    • Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
    • Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
    • Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
    • Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
    • Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
    • Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.

    With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Vector Group.

    Factor

    What We Want to See

    Actual

    Pass or Fail?

    Growth 5-Year Annual Revenue Growth > 15% 11.8% Fail
    1-Year Revenue Growth > 12% 17.8% Pass
    Margins Gross Margin > 35% 39.8% Pass
    Net Margin > 15% 12.9% Fail
    Balance Sheet Debt to Equity < 50% NM NM
    Current Ratio > 1.3 1.84 Pass
    Opportunities Return on Equity > 15% NM NM
    Valuation Normalized P/E < 20 30.82 Fail
    Dividends Current Yield > 2% 8.9% Pass
    5-Year Dividend Growth > 10% 5.1% Fail
    Total Score 4 out of 8

    Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. NM = not meaningful; Vector Group has negative shareholder equity. Total score = number of passes.

    With four points, Vector Group isn't heating up the joint with its financials. The tobacco company may not be the best-known in its industry, but it has ridden the same long-term wave to good share performance.

    Vector is the company behind cigarette brands like USA and Pyramid. It's a tiny company compared to giants Altria (NYSE: MO  ) , Lorillard (NYSE: LO  ) , and Reynolds American (NYSE: RAI  ) , but it has enjoyed much faster revenue growth than those competitors recently, and Vector also pays a much higher dividend yield that has gotten the attention of many investors.

    Those dividends, however, greatly exceed Vector's earnings, which is one reason why the company has negative shareholder equity. Unlike Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM  ) , Vector does all of its business in the U.S. market, which leaves it exposed to U.S. regulation and lawsuit liability. All of those factors make many people concerned about whether Vector can sustain its payout.

    With new regulatory initiatives like in-your-face graphic anti-smoking labels coming next year, Vector faces a hostile environment for the foreseeable future. As the company having had to raise debt to finance its dividend, shareholders shouldn't expect Vector to become a perfect stock anytime soon.

    Keep searching
    No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.

    Finding the perfect stock is only one piece of a successful investment strategy. Get the big picture by taking a look at our "13 Steps to Investing Foolishly."

    Evaluating Commercial Leasing Options For Your Businesses

    Business success is based on many factors, one of which is negotiating the proper type of commercial lease. Both short-term and long-term leases have benefits and drawbacks depending on the needs of the business owner. Short-term leases offer flexibility, while long-term leases offer predictability and typically a better price. If neither option is suitable, business owners may also want to consider negotiating certain clauses in the lease terms, like rights to early termination or the ability to renew without renegotiating terms. For more on this continue reading the following article from JDSupra.

    When negotiating a commercial lease for your business, the length (or “term”) of the lease is a key issue to consider. Both short-term and long-terms leases can have benefits, so its important to determine which option is best suited for your business.

    Short-Term Leases

    One of the greatest benefits of a short-term lease is flexibility. Because you are not tied down for an extended number of years, short-term leases give you the freedom to address changes in your business. Therefore, if you expect your business to grow or your location needs to change in the foreseeable future, a short-term lease may be a better option.

    For start-ups, short-term leases are also less risky should the business fail to take off. However, if the business is successful, the landlord may demand higher rent should you seek to renew the lease.

    Long-Term Leases

    Long-term leases are often a good fit for an established business that is not afraid to commit to a particular location. While short-term leases offer flexibility, long-term leases offer stability by locking in a predictable monthly payment. In addition, many landlords will offer concessions in exchange for committing to a long-term lease.

    Finally, long-term leases are also better suited for businesses that require a highly customized space, seek to make improvements, or cannot be burdened by moving equipment and supplies every three to five years.

    Other Options

    Sometimes, neither lease is a perfect fit. In these cases, it is possible to negotiate with the landlord to come up with a deal that works. For instance, if you are seeking predictability but are afraid your business might outgrow the space, you may want to consider a long-term lease that contains an early termination clause. This provision in the lease allows the tenant to terminate the lease prior to the end of the lease term in exchange for a fee.

    Alternatively, businesses may also want to pursue a short-term lease that contains an option to renew. Essentially, an option to renew gives the tenant the right to exercise an option to stay by notifying the landlord in writing before the initial lease period expires. Since the landlord may charge higher rent for the renewal period, you should always negotiate the terms of the renewal in advance.
     

    iRetirement: A safer way to play Apple?


    Apple (AAPL) is the greatest cash-generating company the world has ever seen. In just its last quarter, Apple's cash pile grew from $98 billion to $110 billion. And it could add another $40 or $50 billion to that cash by the time we're ringing in 2013.

    Meanwhile, sometime in its fourth quarter, which starts July 1, Apple will reward shareholders with the first quarterly installment of its $2.65 annual dividend.�

    Apple acknowledged that part of the reason for paying a dividend is to attract retirement investors, including institutional investors who manage income and retirement portfolios. The question is: Is Apple a good stock for individual investors planning who are actively involved in their own retirement planning?� �

    Given the rate at which Apple is growing its earnings and cash position -- combined with the attractive valuation (forward P/E of 10) -- it's tough to argue that there isn't upside for both the stock price and the dividend.

    But Apple has two things that keep it from being the perfect retirement stock: a $550 share price and a sub-2% dividend. �

    So we got busy investigating the best ways that individual investors can use Apple to help fund their retirement. And we've found an investment that's heavily leveraged to Apple Computers, pays 9.3%, and has as much as 10% annual upside. �
    In other words, it's such a perfect way to use Apple stock for market-beating returns, we've dubbed this investment (and a few like it) "the iRetirement Plan." �

    The Nuveen Equity Premium Advantage (JLA) is closed-end fund that's nearly 12% invested in Apple -- the highest of any fund we've been able to uncover. �

    JLA also pays a 9.5% dividend, and trades at a discount to net asset value (NAV) of 11.5%. In addition, management fees are under 1%, which is very good for a closed-end fund with such an attractive dividend. �

    The Nuveen Equity Premium Advantage Fund is an equity option fund. That means it sells call options to boost its performance, raise cash for dividend payments, and create a measure of downside protection. The fund's secondary objective is capital appreciation of the stocks it holds. �

    Now, we expect that individual investors may have reservations about investing in a fund that uses call options to generate income. Investors should understand that selling call options is a conservative income strategy. �

    For the last three years, the Nuveen Equity Premium Advantage Fund has averaged 15.5% gains, while the NAV has risen just 13%. �

    Now, it's not unreasonable to think that you might get +20% a year from Apple for the next few years. After all, it's growing earnings at a much faster rate than that. �

    The point is for retirement savings, the reliable income and stable share price make the Nuveen Equity Premium Advantage Fund a better option. �

    Investors will see the share price rise as Apple's stock price rises. And the fact that the fund generates income with call options means it is less vulnerable to stock market corrections. �

    Over the last few weeks, Apple shares have fallen around 15%. But the Nuveen Equity Premium Advantage Fund has performed much better -- down just 2%.

    Once Apple starts paying a dividend, that will increase the cash flow to the Nuveen Equity Premium Advantage Fund. It would be reasonable to expect the fund to pass the added income on to shareholders. So the current 9.5% dividend could quickly become 10.5% or even 11%. �

    We rate the Nuveen Equity Premium Advantage Fund� a strong buy under $12 a share. We believe it represenst an excellent way for you to collect market-beating dividends and maintain exposure to Apple common stock.�



    Related articles:
    • eBay: Profits from PayPal
    • Cash cows in tech: 'Four Horsemen'
    • Oracle: Shelter from the storm
    • Cisco: A no-brainer buy in tech

    Boston Scientific at a Crossroads: The Case For Rebuilding (Part 1 of 2)

    Medical device maker Boston Scientific (BSX) has over 11 billion dollars in market cap. The company has always been more volatile and more controversial than average, but the chatter, rumors, and speculation on this company seem to be near-constant. The company seems to be at a key turning point, though, and the decisions the company makes today will likely determine whether Boston Scientific can once again be a major player in medical technology.

    Aggressive Moves Brought Trouble Home To Roost

    It is hard to believe that Boston Scientific was once a $40 stock, but it did in fact hit its all-time high ($45.81) in April of 2004. While the company rode a wave of acquisitions (SciMed, Target, Meadox, Schneider) and aggressive product introductions to the top, that same aggression sowed the seeds for major problems.

    Not only did the company face several product recalls and some wrath from the FDA, it stretched itself much too far in buying Guidant. The company wrecked its balance sheet with debt and inherited a host of problems with the Guidant acquisition -- problems that have included FDA warnings (including a rather rare corporate warning letter), product holds, and generally disappointing results.

    Much of this occurred under the roller-coaster reign of CEO Jim Tobin. Not all that long ago (2009), Boston Scientific announced a new CEO and the company now appears to have a plan underway to restore investor confidence and rebuild shareholder value. But the question remains whether the company will (or can) rebuild itself or whether it will choose to sell out to a larger rival.

    Rebuild – Help May Be On The Way

    If Boston Scientific is serious about rebuilding, there are some reasons for optimism. The company has lost share in major markets like drug-coated stents and cardiac rhythm management (CRM), but new products could help reverse the momentum.

    The Promus Element holds the promise of not only recapturing share but boosting margins, as BSX will not have to split profits with Abbott (ABT). The success of the Promus Element likely hinges on results from the PLATINUM trial (scheduled to be released on April 4). Designed to show non-inferiority to the current Abbott Xience V stent, a strong result would be a major boost to the company's fortunes – perhaps to the tune of $200 million in profits. Assuming the data is good enough to support approval, it could hit the market in mid-2012 and the company also has an entirely new platform (the Synergy) in development behind that.

    In the CRM business, BSX seems to have worked through the Guidant problems and is looking forward to a new platform launch and the hope of chipping away at Medtronic's (MDT) near-50% hold on the market. Obviously St. Jude (STJ) and Medtronic will have more than a little to say about the company's plans to grow its share in CRM (at their expense). Both St. Jude and Medtronic have product development efforts of their own, and St. Jude has been riding some momentum in this market for a while now.

    In With The New

    Beyond these drivers, investors can also look forward to a bevy of product introductions from previous acquisitions. The Asthmatx Altair bronchial theromplasty system, the Atritech Watchman left atrial appendage closure system, and the Intellect deep brain stimulation could all open new and potentially lucrative markets to the company – none of which are necessarily huge themselves, but meaningful in total.

    Boston Scientific is also looking forward to the launch of Lotus (acquired in the deal for Sadra Medical) – a catheter-based heart valve replacement system. This has proven to be an exciting market. Edwards Lifesciences (EW) posted almost 10% revenue growth for 2010 in a year where growth was hard to find in med-tech – and more than three-quarters of that growth was due to the new Sapien transcather heart valve, even though it was only approved in Europe. With U.S. approval expected, analysts are already looking for several years of powerful revenue growth for Edwards on the strength of this product.

    While Edwards will be first to market, and Medtronic is underway with a pivotal U.S. trial of its own, Boston Scientific may yet have an ace up its sleeve. Unlike the Sapien or Medtronic's CoreValve, the Lotus is fully repositionable and retrievable and that could be a big ease-of-use advantage that sways surgeons in BSX's favor.

    Nothing Is Certain

    Of course, there are no guarantees. Competition is fierce in med-tech and shows no signs of abating; if the Promus Element or Lotus cannot show demonstrable benefits, they will not go far. Even if Promus Element is approved and launched, upcoming new stent launches from Abbott (the Xience Prime), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) (the Nevo), and Medtronic (the Endeavor Resolute) could whittle away the benefit. After all, Abbott currently has the most successful platform on the market (though Boston Scientific's combined share of Promus and Taxus is greater) and Johnson & Johnson has enjoyed the top spot in the past.

    On top of all that, the markets themselves are changing. Pricing in the stent and CRM business has been under serious pressure and device companies can no longer charge whatever they like and expect it to stick. Elsewhere, clinical data is both boon and bane – data that showed negative outcomes for drug-coated stents severely hurt the market years ago (before rebounding), and there is a rising tide of negative data suggesting ICDs (a key part of CRM) are implanted too often.

    Likewise, many companies have laid out pathways to reducing expenses but have found the actual process to be much more difficult in practice. So while it may be true that Boston Scientific has hundreds of millions to gain from better operating efficiency, that is easier said than done.

    The Bottom Line

    Boston Scientific spent many years alienating and antagonizing its shareholders, so the rampant rumors around the company may be a product of that frustration and desperation. Although investor frustration and impatience is understandable, and success for BSX is by no means a sure thing, investors may just want to hang on and see whether a combination of new product launches and better management can fix what has ailed this company for so long. If they succeed, there is no reason that this stock could not double in five years or less.

    Part 2: The Case for Bowing Out
    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.