KLAC Up 3.5%: FYQ2 Beats; Q3 View Tops Estimates

Chip equipment vendor KLA Tencor (KLAC) this afternoon reported fiscal Q2 revenue and profit that easily beat consensus.

Revenue in the three months ended in December rose to $642 million, yielding EPS of 72 cents.

Analysts on average had been modeling $629.5 million and 65 cents a share.

Management will host a conference call with analysts at 5 pm, Eastern time, and you can catch the webcast of it here.

Shares of KLA are up 52 cents, or 1%, at $50.75 in late trading.

Update: On the call, management forecast Q3 revenue of $770 million to $830 million, and EPS in a range of $1 to $1.18 per share. That is well ahead of estimates for $684 million and 82 cents per share.

KLA shares are now up $1.76, or 3.5%, at $51.99.

Stocks Going Ex-Dividend the Fourth Week of February

Here is our latest update on the stock trading technique called "Buying Dividends." This is the process of buying stocks before the ex-dividend date and selling the stock shortly after the ex date at about the same price, yet still being entitled to the dividend. This technique generally works only in bull markets. In flat or choppy markets, you have to be extremely careful.

In order to be entitled to the dividend, you have to buy the stock before the ex-dividend date, and you can't sell the stock until after the ex date. The actual dividend may not be paid for another few weeks. WallStreetNewsNetwork.com has compiled a downloadable and sortable list of the stocks going ex-dividend during the next week or two. The list contains many dividend paying companies, all with market caps over $500 million, and yields over 2%. Here are a few examples showing the stock symbol, the market capitalization, the ex-dividend date and the yield.

  • DNP Select Income Fund Inc. (DNP) market cap: $2.2B ex-div date: 2/24/2011 yield: 8.4%
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) market cap: $170.9B ex-div date: 2/25/2011 yield: 3.5%
  • MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) market cap: $979.1M ex-div date: 2/25/2011 yield: 3.6%
  • Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc. (BAGL) market cap: $259.5M ex-div date: 2/25/2011 yield: 3.4%
  • Fifth Street Finance Corp. (FSC) market cap: $683.5M ex-div date: 2/25/2011 yield: 10.2%

Don't forget to reconfirm the ex-dividend date with the company before implementing this technique.

Disclosure: Author did not own any of the above at the time article was written.

Its Recent Pullback Makes Pan American Silver Corp. (Nasdaq: PAAS) a Bargain

Pan American Silver Corp. (Nasdaq: PAAS) is a silver mining company that has experienced a significant pullback in price since hitting its high in March. That means patient investors have a nice chance to enter at lower prices while the market calms down.

The parabolic move up in silver prices this spring helped provide a real stimulus to the share prices in some of the mining stocks. When silver prices pulled back after the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (Nasdaq: CME) raised margin rates over and over, the share prices of silver producers were negatively impacted.

The hot money has fled the sector and won't be back for a while, with equity prices now trading in the middle of their 52-week range. This gives patient investors, who are not chasing the current money, a chance to add or increase their exposure to silver miners without paying a pretty penny.

Why Pan American Silver is a "Buy"When I look at a mining company, there are a few things I have learned to look for: Is the company already leveraged to the gills? How leveraged is it to the upside of its sector? Is it operating at a profit? Does it have a track history of operating at a profit?

In the case of Pan American Silver Corp., the company passes the test.

  • It has seven active silver mining operations and four developmental projects.
  • It has 1 billion ounces in resources, including proved and probable (P&P) holdings.
  • And it has no debt.
Indeed, Pan American Silver Corp has developed a diversified basket of assets with functioning mines in Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, and Argentina. These facilities currently are expected to produce as much as 24 million ounces of silver in 2011 at a physical cash cost of about $7.00 - $7.50 per ounce.

Additionally, the company is currently moving four new projects along - one in Mexico, one in Peru, and two under development in Argentina.

The new projects include the massive Navidad project in Argentina, which could produce about 20 million ounces per year for its first five years. The mine is expected to have a 17-year life span, with a cash cost of $6.03 per ounce net of byproduct credits. If the development is finished, production will begin in 2014.

Pan American's operations give the company more than 1 billion ounces of silver equivalent. This gives investors a nice cushion of assets with stable production. It also offers what I like to call "Massive Organic Growth" potential.

The company is leveraged to silver prices with about 66% of its revenue coming directly from its silver production. It has built a basket of projects with production cost of about $7.83 cents in the last quarter.

And, best of all, Pan American has no debt. That means the company is not at the mercy of its bankers. It also means that if Pan American decided it needed to grow, it would have the capacity to expand by tapping its unleveraged balance sheet.

Pan American sports a market cap of about $3.3 billion with an enterprise value of $2.8 billion once net cash and debt are considered. Ironically, when a company has no debt and has a small horde of cash, its enterprise value drops, as it become cheaper to take over using its own net cash against it.

We will want to watch the enterprise value going forward, as it starts to become a cash bait target in the M&A world.

Shares of Pan American closed Thursday at $30.89.

Action to Take: "Buy" Pan American Silver Corp. (Nasdaq: PAAS).

Pan American Silver Corp. is a "Buy" at current market prices for silver. The company has a great history of operating its resources at a cheap break-even price per ounce. This makes the company nicely levered to silver prices, which are still higher today than they were a year ago.

Let's look to pick up 50% of our position around the $30.00 per share range via the use of limit orders. We are in highly volatile times, and the price of silver could easily weaken again, before breaking out to new highs.

Lets put in a limit order for the other half around $27.50, in case market volatility increases in the near term.

(**) Special Note of Disclosure: Jack Barnes has no interest in Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS).

Energy Stocks: Energy stocks up, but Chevron retreats

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) � Chevron Corp. ranked as the worst- performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after the oil major missed its fourth-quarter earnings target, as the negative sentiment filtered through shares of petroleum producers on Friday.

But Transocean Ltd. RIG �helped lift oil service shares after the company received a favorable legal ruling on liabilities surrounding the disastrous 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and natural gas shares moved up.

Energy stocks in the S&P 500 rose 0.6% on average, including an 11% jump in First Solar Inc. FSLR �and a nearly 6% move up by coal producer Alpha Natural Resources Inc. ANR �

/quotes/zigman/289939/quotes/nls/cvx CVX 96.41, -1.90, -1.93% /quotes/zigman/203975/quotes/nls/xom XOM 77.92, -0.71, -0.90% /quotes/zigman/6015539 XOI 1,072.75, -19.89, -1.82%

Shares of Chevron CVX �fell 2.5%. See: Chevron profit drops.

Among the broad energy-sector gauges, the NYSE Arca Oil Index XX:XOI �fell 0.7%, the NYSE Arca Natural Gas Index XX:XNG �moved up by 0.3%. The Philadelphia Oil Service Index OSX �rose 1.3%.

Transocean gained about 1.8% after a federal judge issued a ruling Thursday that BP PLC BP � must indemnify the company against compensatory damages for the oil spill arising from the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

�We think the ruling undercuts BP�s leverage for potential settlements with Transocean and services provider Halliburton and thus raises the likelihood of such settlements occurring,� Stewart Glickman of S&P Capital IQ said in a note to clients. �Still, [Transocean] remains exposed to fines under the Clean Water Act, which could rise as high as $20 billion collectively for the these three parties if the court makes a finding of gross negligence.�

Shares of Halliburton Co. HAL �rose 2.6%. Also moving up in the oil service arena, National Oilwell Varco NOV �added 1.9% and Oceaneering International OII �advanced by 3.1%.

In more legal woes for Chevron, a prosecutor in Brazil expects to file criminal charges against the company in the wake of an offshore spill last November, according to a Reuters report that cited officials in the South American country.

Chevron may face a request for an indictment of the chief executive of the oil company�s unit in the country, in addition to other employees, the report said.

Chevron said that it hasn�t been notified by Brazilian authorities about the indictments and that it believes the charges are without merit, according to a statement provided by the company to Reuters.

On a conference call with analysts Chevron CEO John Watson said the team covering the oil seepage in Brazil �responded very well� to the incident.

Energy stocks mixed on the week

The NYSE Arca Oil Index ended at 1,259 on Friday, below its week-ago ending point of 1,274.

The NYSE Arca Natural Gas Index finished the week at 638, above its level of 618 last week.

The Philadelphia Oil Service Index ended Friday at 240, ahead of its finish of 234 seven days ago.

How Can VMware Grow in a Saturated Market?

Virtual computing has been a hot trend for a long time. The market might even be close to saturation because it's been going like hotcakes for so long. According to Raghu Raghuram, senior VP of cloud infrastructure at VMware (NYSE: VMW  ) , about 50% of server workloads ran on virtual machines by the end of 2011. You can't do much more than doubling a market penetration like that, right? The growth story must be over.

But VMware still sees plenty of growth left to explore, and the secret sauce is called cloud computing.

So what's the magic?
In this week's earnings call, management laid a heavy load on the shoulders of cloud computing. Virtual computing simplifies the management of your data center, squeezes more work out of the same hardware, and lets you run a more flexible IT operation with fewer machines and lower staffing levels. That's the part that's already generally accepted as best practices in enterprises everywhere.

The next step in the transformation VMware wants to market starts from this platform. And then you use it to do things the old systems never could handle. The new ideal is to run private, secure cloud services on a fully virtualized infrastructure.

Best-case scenario, the software teams don't have to care about the hardware. They just write, run, and support applications on a malleable mesh of servers, storage, and networks. Users consume these programs over private networks, often delivered in secure tunnels over the open Internet. There might be specialized client programs or mobile apps involved, but Web browsers are a very typical user interface. Everything is automated, easily changed, and exactly as public or private as you need it to be.

Delivering this whole package is at the core of VMware's strategy today. "We think that customers view infrastructure as incredibly important, but it's not the thing that they want to spend more of their time and money on," says CEO Paul Maritz. "Instead, they would rather be able to redirect their focus toward things that really are going to differentiate them in the marketplace versus their competition. When that happens, customers tend to place a greater premium on getting a complete suite of functionality, and that's what we're doing for virtualized infrastructure and for private clouds."

Mainframe concepts for smaller systems
If that operating model sounds familiar, even old-school, you're probably used to working with big-iron IBM (NYSE: IBM  ) mainframes or Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) Superdome systems. Using those platforms, the machine can be sliced and diced any way you want it and upgraded on the fly, and it's managed by a sophisticated set of mainly automated tools. This is upper-crust server technology.

And you'd be right. But this time, the underlying hardware isn't one perfect system. It can be a mishmash of smaller machines, running various operating systems on widely varied hardware. But VMware makes it look and feel like one easy-to-manage mainframe. You don't need a million-dollar mainframe to work like this anymore.

Doing this takes a lot of add-ons to the virtual server structure that's so widespread today. That's why management sees such a rosy growth future, even after every system is managed as a virtual server. And on top of that, these systems can perform workloads that plain old hardware or even a simple virtual server never could. So there's another growth angle -- expanding the total market for server-class computing.

Doesn't everyone else have the same idea?
This isn't the only company working on a similar model, of course. The Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) System Center suite aims to organize all your physical and virtual IT assets under one umbrella. Big Blue's WebSphere platform is expanding in that direction as well. The cluster of cloud products from Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN  ) , known as Amazon Web Services, arguably fills the same functions, albeit from a slightly different angle. In this case, you don't even own the hardware, nor necessarily know anything about it -- Amazon just makes sure it's available to you in a virtual package. Some pretty big names in consumer technology are running their IT almost entirely on this platform.

Different strokes for different folks. According to the analysts at Gartner, VMware still dominates the server virtualization market it invented, with a crushing 65% market share. Microsoft runs a distant second at 27%, and nobody else comes close despite their best efforts.

Overall, VMware grows sales at a 30% run rate. Trailing earnings more than doubled over the past year. This strategy is clearly working. Learn all about the cloud-computing revolution in this special video report. It's free to Fools, but only for a limited time, so why don't you watch it right now?

1 Reason to Expect Big Things From Core Laboratories

Here at The Motley Fool, I've long cautioned investors to keep a close eye on inventory levels. It's a part of my standard diligence when searching for the market's best stocks. I think a quarterly checkup can help you spot potential problems. For many companies, products that sit on the shelves too long can become big trouble. Stale inventory may be sold for lower prices, hurting profitability. In extreme cases, it may be written off completely and sent to the shredder.

Basic guidelines
In this series, I examine inventory using a simple rule of thumb: Inventory increases ought to roughly parallel revenue increases. If inventory bloats more quickly than sales grow, this might be a sign that expected sales haven't materialized. Is the current inventory situation at Core Laboratories (NYSE: CLB  ) out of line? To figure that out, start by comparing the company's inventory growth to sales growth. How is Core Laboratories doing by this quick checkup? At first glance, not so great. Trailing-12-month revenue increased 13.5%, and inventory increased 72.0%. Over the sequential quarterly period, the trend looks worrisome. Revenue grew 2.5%, and inventory grew 23.6%.

Advanced inventory
I don't stop my checkup there, because the type of inventory can matter even more than the overall quantity. There's even one type of inventory bulge we sometimes like to see. You can check for it by examining the quarterly filings to evaluate the different kinds of inventory: raw materials, work-in-progress inventory, and finished goods. (Some companies report the first two types as a single category.)

A company ramping up for increased demand may increase raw materials and work-in-progress inventory at a faster rate when it expects robust future growth. As such, we might consider oversized growth in those categories to offer a clue to a brighter future, and a clue that most other investors will miss. We call it "positive inventory divergence."

On the other hand, if we see a big increase in finished goods, that often means product isn't moving as well as expected, and it's time to hunker down with the filings and conference calls to find out why.

What's going on with the inventory at Core Laboratories? I chart the details below for both quarterly and 12-month periods.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of latest fully reported quarter. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of latest fully reported quarter. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Let's dig into the inventory specifics. On a trailing-12-month basis, raw materials inventory was the fastest-growing segment, up 194.0%. On a sequential-quarter basis, raw materials inventory was also the fastest-growing segment, up 90.3%. Although Core Laboratories shows inventory growth that outpaces revenue growth, the company may also display positive inventory divergence, suggesting that management sees increased demand on the horizon.

Foolish bottom line
When you're doing your research, remember that aggregate numbers such as inventory balances often mask situations that are more complex than they appear. Even the detailed numbers don't give us the final word. When in doubt, listen to the conference call, or contact investor relations. What at first looks like a problem may actually signal a stock that will provide the market's best returns. And what might look hunky-dory at first glance could actually be warning you to cut your losses before the rest of the Street wises up.

I run these quick inventory checks every quarter. To stay on top of inventory and other tell-tale metrics at your favorite companies, add them to your free watchlist, and we'll deliver our latest coverage right to your inbox.

  • Add Core Laboratories to My Watchlist.

Top Stocks For 2012-1-30-17

Hot Topic Inc. (Nasdaq:HOTT) announced that two new executives have joined the company, Don Hendricks as Chief Information Officer and Jeff Allison as Senior Vice President of Planning and Allocation.

Hot Topic, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mall- and Web-based specialty retailer in the United States. The company operates Hot Topic and Torrid store concepts, as well as an e-space music discovery concept, ShockHound.

Dollar Financial Corp. (Nasdaq:DLLR) announced that Randy Underwood, Executive Vice President and CFO, will present at the CL King 9th Annual Best Ideas Conference on Tuesday, September 13, 2011 at 12:45 p.m. Eastern time at the Omni Berkshire Place Hotel in New York City.

DFC Global Corp. provides retail financial services to unbanked and under-banked consumers, and small businesses. Its primary products and services include short-term consumer loans, single-payment consumer loans, check cashing services, secured pawn loans, and gold buying services.

Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO)

Cleantech Transit Inc. was founded to capitalize on technology advances and manufacturing opportunities in the growing clean energy public transportation sector. The Company has expanded its focus to invest directly in specific green projects. Recognizing the many economic and operational advances of converting wood waste into renewable sources of energy, Cleantech has selected to invest in Phoenix Energy (www.phoenixenergy.net). This project could benefit the Company’s manufacturing clients worldwide.

Wood is the conventional biomass energy used in the home though it can be used for much larger buildings or even communities. Woody biomass production comprises forestry products, waste wood, cardboard, waste pellets and straw. Used on its own or in conjunction with fossil fuels it is possible for woody biomass fuel to reduce carbon dioxide emisssions, whilst in some instances can also reduce waste.

Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO) is pleased to announce it has met its funding requirement to secure the Company’s ability to earn in 25% of the 500KW Merced Project.

The Company is in the final stages of closing its initial interest in the Merced Project and is currently working on completing the necessary documentation and expects closing the transaction soon. As previously announced Cleantech has the option to earn up to 40% of the Merced Project and the Company plans to continue to work towards increasing its interest in the Merced Project as they move ahead.

For more information about Cleantech Transit, Inc. visit its website www.cleantechtransitinc.com

Advisory Board Co. (Nasdaq:ABCO) announced that it will participate in the upcoming Stifel Nicolaus 2011 Healthcare Conference to be held in Boston, Massachusetts. Speaking at the conference on September 7th, 2011 at 3:50 PM EDT, will be the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, Robert W. Musslewhite, and the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, Michael T. Kirshbaum.

The Advisory Board Company provides best practices research and analysis, business intelligence and software tools, installation support, and management and advisory services primarily to the health care and education industries.

G20 Summit Bogged Down by a Shaky Global Recovery

The Group of 20 (G20) countries concluded their weekend summit with an outline for reducing budget deficits and a delay in global banking reform, but failed to create a unified policy as nations find themselves in different phases of economic recovery.

Leaders pushed decisions on global banking regulations to the agenda of the November session in Seoul, South Korea. The meeting's concluding statement expressed unity in countries' desires to reduce debt, but did little to alter austerity plans and stimulus measures countries have already created.

"With the common efforts of G20 members and the international community, the world economy is gradually recovering, but the foundations of the recovery are still not solid, the process is not balanced and there are still many uncertainties," said Chinese President Hu Jintao. "All this shows that the deeper impacts of the financial crisis have still not been surmounted, and systemic and structural risks to the world economy remain very grave."

The G20 communique underscored the countries' focus on achieving "growth friendly" fiscal policies while acknowledging that leaders must reduce the budget deficits, although policies and budget cuts should be tailored to suit each individual nation.

"The path of adjustment must be carefully calibrated to sustain the recovery in private demand," the G20 nations wrote. "There is a risk that synchronized fiscal adjustment across several major economies could adversely impact the recovery. There is also a risk that the failure to implement consolidation where necessary would undermine confidence and hamper growth."

Analysts said the divergent views on how to sustain economic recovery marked the lack of effectiveness of the G20 forum.

"The outcome makes it more difficult to guarantee stability on financial markets if all the countries go their own direction, because you get the possibility of regulatory arbitrage in markets," Michael Heise, chief economist of Europe's biggest insurer Allianz, told Reuters.

U.S. President Barack Obama warned against exiting from stimulus measures while the recovery was still fragile, but European countries like Germany and the United Kingdom defended recent austerity measures. After talks policymakers reached what a U.S. official called a "combo deal" in which the United States agreed to reduce its budget deficit and G20 nations pledged to support economic growth.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper proposed the advanced economies in the G20 member nations cut their deficits in half by 2013, and countries agreed to set reduction goals based on their respective situations.

The Obama administration's budget for 2011 sets the United States on the path to a deficit of $778 billion in 2013, about half of the $1.6 trillion deficit estimated for 2010. The U.S. government announced Sunday it was aiming to reduce the deficit to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2015, down from the current 10.1% of GDP.

However, critics question the effectiveness of the deficit reduction plans. The timeline for reducing budget deficits falls inline with what many countries had already planned before the summit, and the G20 members did not outline formal consequences for countries that fail to follow through.

Canada's Harper said countries will have to abide by reduction tactics as the economy guides them to do so.

"They will need to fulfill them because there will be market pressure to fulfill them," said Harper.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner defended the U.S. deficit reduction outline as being more aggressive than European counterparts.

"Look at the announced measured path of deficit reduction for the United States of America over the next three years relative to what the leaders of Germany are considering appropriate for Germany," Geithner said. "And if you look at those together, you'll see ours is much steeper, appropriately so."

The G20 said it was committed to its rebalancing effort announced in September 2009. Countries with trade surpluses, like China, should create policies to reduce exports and increase domestic consumption, while nations with trade deficits, like the United States, should take the opposite course of action. The rebalance would shift consumer dependence away from countries that are trying to regain footing post-recession.

President Obama also warned other countries to boost domestic consumption and not rely on American consumers.

"No nation should assume its path to prosperity is paved with exports to America," he said.

Banking Buys Time Until Stricter RegulationOne thing the financial industry can count on is more stringent rules for banks regarding capital requirements, although institutions would have a multi-year phase-in period to comply with any changes.

The G20 nations are waiting to hear the decisions - referred to as Basel III - made by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, due by November's meeting.

The goal of Basel III is to create a banking system that is better prepared to absorb losses during a financial crisis. While leaders want to adopt the rules by 2012, they will allow banks to adjust over time to limit market and recovery disruption.

The current proposals include redefining what banks can consider as Tier 1 capital, and ensuring they have enough liquid assets to protect against a market plunge.

The measures should tie into the industry regulation changes brought on by the U.S. financial reform bill that should be signed by President Obama in July.

"We want to have a level playing field," said Geithner. "In these markets today, risk can move very quickly to evade the strongest standards, and we think they system will be stronger as a whole if these measures in the U.S. we're about to enact are complemented by strong actions in other countries."

Current ratio requirements for core Tier 1 capital for a bank to its risk-weighted assets is 2%. The new rules could see that number double, if not more.

The G20 nations also agreed to let each country decide its own best route for dismantling failed banks. Nations want to avoid having taxpayers foot the bill - like the U.S. bailouts of struggling financial institutions - but leaders are divided on the best tactic.

Some European countries proposed collecting a fee from large banks to use in the case of failure and imposing a global bank tax and a financial transaction tax.

Canada worried that a bank rescue fund would give the financial industry a safety net it doesn't deserve and argued that strict capital and leverage standards should suffice to sustain a healthy banking sector.

"What we've been trying to emphasize in these debates and discussions is the recognition that the banking industry was undercapitalized going into the crisis," Royal Bank of Canada Chief Executive Officer Gordon Nixon told Bloomberg. "There's no question that increased capital requirements are not only coming, they're important, as are leverage limits... but we also have to ensure that it is not to such an extent that it kills economic growth."

Reel Investing – The Secure Investment of Our Times

If you are a person looking to broaden your investment portfolio or even contemplating the possibility of beginning to invest, you need to consider the most overlooked investment opportunity of our time: INVESTING IN THE MOVIES!

It has been said, There is no business like show business, and what an understatement! Investments made in the movies are exceptional when compared to other more well known forms of investment. People have and are investing in very high risk investments (at a loss) all the time. How many times, in the past year alone, have you heard about people losing their hard earned money in the stock market, losing their homes or those who have lost their 401k and had made no other plans for their retirement?

All the ways in which our culture has understood and acted concerning investing our earnings; have turned to the down side and people are losing out.

Investments such as futures, stocks, real estate, precious stones, rental properties, and even gold can be very high risk. And while there is some risk in all investment opportunities, when it comes to investing in a movie, you are investing your money in the right place.

Just think for a moment about how many movies you have paid to view in the theater, at home, or on the internet. Remember back to your favorite movies from your youth or the movie you just watched last night. Now also think about how many people you know. How many movies have they paid to view? And do you know anyone who has never paid to view a movie? Of course you have not. Hollywood is not getting any smaller and ticket prices are not going down. And for every movie there are investors who make dividends from their investments.

Everyday people come home from work and turn on the television. Couples are continuously using the theater for date night and who does not love putting in a DVD and just relaxing at home. Movies are a permanent fixture in our culture and they are not going in any other direction but up. We as a nation love our celebrities and can not get enough. From the theater, DVD, blue ray, cable, national news, talk shows, magazines and newspapers we are all reminded and sold entertainment at every angle. So it only makes sense to invest in something that is permanent and tied so closely to every American and others the word over.

While we watch our economy continue to move and shift, those looking to invest their money in more secure venues need to seriously consider the movie industry.

Mark Dewey is The Provider of Information on Why to Invest in The Motion Picture Industry. http://movieinvesting.blogspot.com/

Don’t Get Trapped By Sideways Stocks

Economists expected US GDP to expand by a 3% annual rate during the fourth quarter. It didn�t � instead expanding at a 2.8% clip. Traders immediately sold futures, only to buy back stocks an hour later when the market opened.

We should continue to expect this tug-of-war between bulls and bears to continue for a while as the market approaches important areas of resistance. The emotional game has to play out � and you�ll have to wait and see what side wins over the hearts and minds of the market and its many participants.

Simply put, it is dangerous to �take sides� this early in a trend. For instance, traders were buying stock early this week as if it were their last day on Earth. Unfortunately, the buying didn�t stick, and most stocks have found lower ground. Expectations went from bullish euphoria to an almost unanimous consensus that a pullback was in order in just a few days.

None of this back-and-forth action is cause for alarm. Stocks have been climbing steadily for weeks now, so we will eventually need to see some sort of correction. This can happen one of two ways � through price or time. While there is no way to say for sure how the market will digest its strong start to the year, it appears that stocks want to churn sideways for a bit.

For now, a sideways market makes sense. Despite the strong start to 2012, I do not believe the investing public is getting too greedy at this point. But it is fairly evident that at least some level of comfort is returning to the markets. So we�ll walk the tightrope of fear while the major indexes sneak toward important areas of resistance. That�s where things will get interesting�

The Dow is already extremely close to matching its 2011 highs � and the S&P isn�t far behind. Here�s a weekly look at both indexes, with areas of resistance marked with dotted blue lines:

How investors react to these key levels will determine the strength of the rally over the next few weeks. Obviously, a clean break of the previous highs will help put the past 6 months behind us. With clear skies ahead, we should see additional interest in smaller stocks � and more trading opportunites in the small-cap and microcap universe.

What�s important right now is to train yourself to be able to see the forest through the trees. So many traders get hung up on the day-to-day movements of the market, letting their emotions get swept back and forth with every high and low. Micro-analysis like this can lead to chasing stocks, bad entries and exits, and losses. But even more importantly, if you let the tiny movements of the market get in your head � especially duing important turning points in trend � you�ll risk missing the bigger move entirely.

The 5-Year Outlook for This Dow Stock: IBM

The following video is part of our "Motley Fool Conversations" series, in which analyst John Reeves and advisor David Meier discuss topics across the investing world.

In our ongoing series about Dow stocks, Dave looks at the prospects of IBM over the next five years or so. He takes a close look at its dividend and then considers the factors that might lead to underperformance. The video concludes with Dave's recommendation on IBM.

Please enable Javascript to view this video.

If you're interested in some of these dividends on your quest for high-yielding stocks, The Motley Fool has compiled a special free report outlining our 11 top, dependable, dividend-paying stocks. It's called "Secure Your Future With 11 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks." You can access your complimentary copy today at no cost! Just click here to discover the winners we've picked.

5 Reasons Not to Worry This Week

Things are starting to look up in 2012.

The major market indices have inched higher through most of January, helping distance investors from the flattish ways of 2011.

There are still some rough patches out there. I recently went over some of the companies that are targeted to post lower quarterly profits when they report this week. �

Thankfully, they're the exceptions and not the rule. Let's go over some publicly traded companies that are expected to stand tall this week by posting year-over-year improvement on the bottom line.

Company

Latest Quarter EPS (Estimated)

Year-Ago Quarter EPS

My Watchlist

Mattel (NYSE: MAT  ) $1.01 $0.89 Add
Seagate (NYSE: STX  ) $1.07 $0.33 Add
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG  ) $1.82 $1.47 Add
Green Mountain (Nasdaq: GMCR  ) $0.36 $0.18 Add
Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS  ) $0.57 $0.42 Add

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Clearing the table
Let's start at the top with Mattel.

The country's leading toy company will check in on its telltale holiday quarter tomorrow. Toy makers generally disappointed investors three months ago, and Mattel now has an opportunity to show investors that it's still selling a ton of Barbie dolls, Hot Wheels cars, and other assorted playthings.

Seagate also checks in tomorrow. The pros see the hard drive maker more than tripling last year's bottom-line results. There's a good chance that Seagate may even do better than that. Its top rival posted blowout results last week, indicating that the Thailand floods that halted industry production earlier last year are starting to come around.

Seagate also turned heads last week when it boosted its dividend by 39% and announced a new $1 billion share buyback. Repurchases are sometimes declared after a company has upsetting news for investors, but Seagate announcing this before tomorrow's report is a positive sign.

Chipotle has carved a cozy living offering up its "food with integrity" in volume. There are plenty of burrito rollers around, but Chipotle's limited menu, quality ingredients, and lightning-quick assembly line have made Chipotle a cult favorite among quick-service chains.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters has been one of the market's biggest growth stocks in recent years on the strength of its Keurig single-cup brewing system. Green Mountain has become the industry leader in one-cup brews, leaving java heavies with little choice but to back Green Mountain's K-Cup platform.

Things will get interesting later this year when Green Mountain's K-Cup patents run out, but there's some scintillating growth to consider between now and then. Wall Street figures that profitability will double this quarter on an 85% surge in revenue.

Las Vegas Sands is the stateside casino operator that has found a vibrant growth market in Macau. It's true that Las Vegas Sands isn't growing as quickly in China as some of its peers, but it's hard to dismiss the growing company's prospects.

Cross those fingers, but know the fundamentals
Investors in these five stocks have a right to be excited. They are all improving their financial situations. They are worthy of the gains that the market rally has bestowed upon them over the past year.

I wouldn't be uncomfortable owning any of these companies. They're doing the right thing, regardless of Mr. Market's mood swings.

The expectations may be high, but these five stocks wouldn't have it any other way.

Green Mountain and Chipotle have gone on to beat the market since David Gardner and his analyst team originally singled out the two speedsters to Rule Breakers subscribers, but now there's a new multibagger on the growth newsletter's radar. Read up in a free report that's available right now.�

How Hess May Be Failing You

Margins matter. The more Hess (NYSE: HES  ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, so I can compare them to current and potential competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong Hess' competitive position could be.

Here's the current margin snapshot for Hess over the trailing 12 months: Gross margin is 23.1%, while operating margin is 8.5% and net margin is 4.5%.

Unfortunately, a look at the most recent numbers doesn't tell us much about where Hess has been, or where it's going. A company with rising gross and operating margins often fuels its growth by increasing demand for its products. If it sells more units while keeping costs in check, its profitability increases. Conversely, a company with gross margins that inch downward over time is often losing out to competition, and possibly engaging in a race to the bottom on prices. If it can't make up for this problem by cutting costs -- and most companies can't -- then both the business and its shares face a decidedly bleak outlook.

Of course, over the short term, the kind of economic shocks we recently experienced can drastically affect a company's profitability. That's why I like to look at five fiscal years' worth of margins, along with the results for the trailing 12 months, the last fiscal year, and last fiscal quarter (LFQ). You can't always reach a hard conclusion about your company's health, but you can better understand what to expect, and what to watch.

Here's the margin picture for Hess over the past few years.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Because of seasonality in some businesses, the numbers for the last period on the right -- the TTM figures -- aren't always comparable to the FY results preceding them. To compare quarterly margins to their prior-year levels, consult this chart.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Here's how the stats break down:

  • Over the past five years, gross margin peaked at 23.1% and averaged 21.5%. Operating margin peaked at 12.8% and averaged 10.5%. Net margin peaked at 6.3% and averaged 4.9%.
  • TTM gross margin is 23.1%, 160 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM operating margin is 8.5%, 200 basis points worse than the five-year average. TTM net margin is 4.5%, 40 basis points worse than the five-year average.

With recent TTM operating margins below historical averages, Hess has some work to do.

If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're probably ahead of 95% of the market's individual investors. To stay ahead, learn more about how I use analysis like this to help me uncover the best returns in the stock market. Got an opinion on the margins at Hess? Let us know in the comments below.

  • Add Hess to My Watchlist.

Dazzle The World With Your New Amazing Abilities

Just use these hints and you’ll increase your reading speed:

You can read lines of text, more easily, by reading groups of words at one time than reading a single word, and your reading speed will increase when you just widen your eye span (peripheral vision).

1. Techniques will teach you have to activate hand-to-eye coordination, then you’ll be speed reading quickly and immediately. Improve your reading abilities for business or personal use with just a little practice. You can double, even triple your current rates of reading without hurting comprehension or retention.

There are different speed reading Methods for different kinds of reading material:

1. Fiction, especially romance novels. Try speed reading a hot and passionate love scene. You can’t! I don’t speed read romance novels. I don’t know anyone who does that.

2. Non-Fiction. Speed reading is perfect in this dimension. Where there is something to learn that is not based on the emotions speed reading is great. And it comes in various forms: newspapers with narrow columns, magazines, with slightly wider columns, books, computer screens, and in the mail and email.

Slow readers struggle. They can’t identify the techniques to success and they struggle due to slowing down to identify words that don’t understand — they will see a particular word, slow down, think about the meaning, then restart the reading process. Perhaps they won’t sound out all of the words theyve been reading, but they will spend more time on some phrases than others, perhaps because, they are just skimming across those small sections that are easy to understand.

Creating equality in comprehension and reading speed is what gives us our base reading speed. You will also need to establish a base-line reading speed for what you read the most. There are different techniques for different types of reading, with varying speeds, and comprehension rates.

Study speed reading, and practice doing the exercises, they will increase your reading speed drastically with practice. But, before you begin practicing the actual speed reading techniques, that we teach in The Complete Speed Reading Program, let me suggest that you learn to coordinate your eye-to-pacing finger movement.

In the beginning suggest you reread the same material over and over, until you develop a well-coordinated reading speed. When you feel comfortable with it, your rate of speed will increase almost immediately almost 50%. Then, once you are comfortable practicing at that rate, move on to more advanced techniques that will increase your reading speed further.

Deliberate this:

1. You will be reading very fast (scan read) pre-reading for important factors 300%.

2. You should use a 50% over the normal rate when reading for information saturation.

3. Post-read for quick review will be fast reading; just a fast scan 300-400% quicker.

4. For testing, scan before prepare for tests your rating speed will be medium fast 200%.

That’s how easy it will be. Your mind will be trained to be the perfect learning machine. Just start right now with Complete Speed Reading Course, a beginner course, and intense in-depth program, and audio reinforcement. Guaranteed to bring you greater success.

Discover the self-taught program that helps more grad students Get Straight A’sGet Straight A’s, plus Learn to Get Great Grades This article, Dazzle The World With Your New Amazing Abilities has free reprint rights.

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IMF cuts growth forecast for all but U.S.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The International Monetary Fund lowered its outlook for the world economy on Tuesday, and warned that the global financial system faces growing risks from the debt crisis in Europe.

The IMF now expects the global economy to grow 3.3% in 2012, according to an update to its World Economic Outlook. In September, the IMF said the global economy would expand 4% this year.

Despite the weaker global outlook, the United States was the one country that didn't get its forecast lowered. The IMF said it still expects activity in the United States to expand 1.8% this year, unchanged from its previous forecast.

"The outlook for growth is mediocre, and it could be worse," said Olivier Blanchard, director of research at the IMF, in a pre-recorded interview.

The downward revision in global growth was driven primarily by the intensifying debt crisis in Europe, where the 17 nations of the eurozone are expected to suffer a mild recession this year, the IMF said.

The euro area economy is now expected to shrink 0.5% this year, down sharply from a projected growth rate of 1.1% in September.

World Bank warns on risk of global recession

The slowdown in the eurozone is "due to the rise in sovereign yields, the effects of bank deleveraging on the real economy, and the impact of additional fiscal consolidation announced by euro area governments," the IMF said.

Italy and Spain, two nations facing higher borrowing costs and difficult budget cuts, are expected to be in recession over the next two years. Germany and France, the largest economies in the eurozone, are both expected to grow less than 0.5% in 2012, before activity picks up in 2013.

World's largest economies

Growth in emerging and developing markets overall is expected to grow 5.4% this year, down from the 6.2% rate the IMF had previosuly predicted. China, which has started to see its red hot economy cool, is expected to grow 8.2% this year, down from IMF's prior forecast of 9%.

Meanwhile, the global financial system faces increased risks from the debt crisis and banking problems in the eurozone, according to an update of the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report.

While the IMF welcomed recent steps eurozone political leaders have taken to contain the crisis, the report said more needs to be done to stabilize public finances and prevent a deeper credit freeze in the banking sector.

The IMF acknowledged that recent actions by the European Central Bank "likely forestalled an imminent crisis," and that borrowing costs for some troubled eurozone governments have eased in recent weeks.

But the report notes that longer-term interest rates remain high for many governments and that banks are still having trouble obtaining funding.

At the same time, the IMF stressed that governments should not cut back on spending too quickly, which could make the recession worse. And that bank "deleveraging" should not impact the flow of credit to businesses and consumers in the real economy.

A world in chaos? That may be a good thing.

"It is important that the euro area puts in place urgently a sufficient comprehensive strategy that leads to the full stabilization of sovereign debt markets and of the situation of banks," said José Viñals, director of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department. "This is absolutely fundamental."

On Monday, the fund's managing director, Christine Lagarde, backed a plan to combine an existing bailout fund with one that is in the process of being implemented in the eurozone. The combined funds could have resources worth €1 trillion, which the IMF says would help ensure markets that Italy and Spain are safe.

The IMF has also announced plans to increase its own resources by €500 billion, including a €200 billion commitment from euro area governments.

The 187-member fund, which provides emergency financial aid for troubled economies around the world, estimates that it will need €1 trillion to meet its commitments over the next few years. 

Sell Volatility to Outsmart This Market

President-elect Barack Obama, as our nation’s 44th leader, is receiving the keys to the car with the gas tank empty, the tires blown out, the transmission broken and the battery dead.�

Hoping he can turn this wrecked car into a magical, flying one is very, very wishful thinking. We would settle for it driving 55 mph at this point, and having it stay on the road would be an even-bigger bonus!�

While the economic situation he’s inheriting makes one wonder whether anyone else will ever again want to grow up to be president, the rest of us are looking at our trading accounts and finding comfort in the fact that at least we don’t have to balance a budget on the national level!�

A Twist on ‘Buy Low, Sell High’�

As a trader, you’ve probably been advised to “buy low and sell high” so many times that your eyes automatically roll when you hear the phrase. Let’s face it, who doesn’t want to buy stocks or options “on the cheap” and close the positions for double or triple their original value?�

But what a lot of folks outside the options world don’t realize are the, well, “options” behind “selling high.” And there, friends, is where you have a unique advantage over thousands, if not millions, of investors who are neither talking the talk, nor walking the walk.�

We love to watch the “smart money” to follow those cash-flush investors into profitable trades. And with the market having some of its worst days in more than two decades, it’s only natural for us to see what the big-money players are buying.�

And lately, they’re selling.�

Now, before you access your online brokerage and tell your account rep to liquidate everything, keep in mind that “selling” isn’t just cashing out. In options-speak, it’s also called “writing” or “shorting” options.�

Exercise Your ‘Writes’ as an Options Trader�

You may already be “selling high” by “selling covered calls” against the stocks you hold long as a way to juice up your returns when share values are flatlining or pulling back. In a word, when you sell a call against your shares, you collect premium upfront and look for the option to decrease in value.�

When you sell (you’d tell your broker to “Sell to Open” your option), then you get to keep your premium and sell more calls against your stock next month, and the month after that. Or if the option still has some value left at expiration, you can “Sell to Close” your calls for a lower value at any time during the life of the contract, and still keep some (if not most) of the money you took in when you initiated the trade.�

In fact, when you’re writing calls or puts, the lower the price goes, the better for you as the options trader! Why? Because the less the option is worth come expiration Friday, the better for your trading account.�

Use Options to Bet on a Stock Bottom�

Here’s an example of how “selling high” means anything but selling out:�

With tons of busted stocks out there that are trading at seemingly unfair prices, suppose you think one in particular just has to go up. With consumers increasingly staying at home, suppose you think Netflix (NFLX) stands to benefit from families gathering around the television during the winter months. (Note that this is not an actual recommendation.)�

With NFLX trading at $20 — half of its 52-week high of $40 — you may think Santa’s going to be good to this company. So, you may decide to pick options with a January expiration date (to take advantage of the holiday season), and thus choose to sell the NFLX Jan 20 Puts for $2 per share ($200 per contract).�

Your goal as a put seller is to have the stock go up during the life of your options contract so that the $2 that’s credited to your trading account from the moment you initiate the trade stays there. If the stock keeps going up, the value of the put erodes but the money you collected is yours to keep.�

How is that possible? Because think about the position of the put buyer. We buy put options as a bet that a stock is going to go down. If the stock trades up, the option becomes worth less and less, particularly as expiration nears, as options lose their value even more quickly than usual.�

In fact, when we’re selling options, we typically try to stick with expiration dates that are close to the date we’re initiating the trade. If it’s November, we may sell a December option, or sell a January option in December, to capture premium on options that don’t have a lot of time left till expiration.�

So, Why Not Buy Calls? �

Selling puts, as you in the example above, is a way of capturing a stock’s upside. So why not just buy a call option, then, if we think a stock is going up?�

You’re probably more familiar with buying calls, and it’s a fine strategy. But when you’re buying calls, you’re laying out money from the moment you enter the trade, whereas you’re collecting money by shorting an option from the get-go.�

Your risk is limited when you buy calls, whereas the risks are much higher when selling puts. However, some of the savviest, smart-money players out there are writing puts to establish a long stock position in the names they wouldn’t mind owning at the option’s strike price. (In NFLX’s case, $20 per share.)�

‘Stock’ Up on Shorts This Season�

In these days of high volatility and, as a result, high option premiums, collecting this premium upfront (i.e., “selling high”) is much-more preferable to paying those high premiums to buy options at this time.�

So, what happens if you sell (to open) those Jan 20 Puts and the stock goes up to $25 or even $30 before January expiration?�

Then those options won’t be worth a thing, but no one can take your premium away from you. When expiration comes and goes, that money is officially yours to keep.�

But what if the stock goes down in the meantime?�

That’s why you don’t want to buy too much time, as it can work against you. But even if the stock goes in the wrong direction, you’re not stuck with a dud of a trade. You can tell your broker you want to “buy to close” your short puts at any time.�

If they’ve decreased in value, then you are still a winner, as you would be able to keep some of what you collected when you unwind the trade. When shorting options, the most you can make is what you collect on the day you initiate the position. And nothing makes a season merrier than making 100% profits on a trade that goes your way!�

Don’t Get Stuck with a Lump of Coal � Unless You Want to�

But what if the stock took a nosedive and the value of the options went up? Then you’ve got some decisions to make about how — or if — you want to make your exit. Remember, when selling puts, you should only sell an amount that you are comfortable owning if the stock is put to you.�

You don’t have to own the underlying stock to sell calls and puts, but because there is risk involved, you will need to be approved for a margin account and Level 3 trading status.�

Check with your online brokerage before doing any of these strategies, but once you see the payoff that selling volatility can make, you’ll soon see how selling volatility can bring new life to your portfolio while the market sorts itself out!

Oil ETFs: Still Crazy After All These Years

Oil ETFs miserably fail at replicating the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. If you’d like to learn why this is so, you may wish to review a well-written article that explains contango and backwardation.

However, my goal is far more basic. I only wish to help investors visualize just how far off the performance mark an Oil ETF can be.

The largest Oil ETF, United States Oil (USO), has $2,000,000,000 in assets. Yep… that’s billion with a “b.” And the stated goal for USO is ”to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil.”

How well did United States Oil (USO) do at achieving its stated goal over the last year or so? Well, from 2/2/2009 to 2/23/2010, the spot price of crude gained 100% from $40 per barrel to $80 per barrel.

In contrast, USO gained 35%.

Sure… there are a few other ETFs that endeavor to replicate oil’s movement in some shape, way or form. The iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index Note (OIL) is a popular exchange-traded note. As a note, you actually have the credit risk of Barclays Bank (BCS), as well as the volatility of the underlying futures contracts for the commodity. The reward? 35%.

Meanwhile, other ETF efforts that use commodity futures contracts, United States 12 Month Oil (USL) and PowerShares DB Oil (DBO), did a little better at 45% and 50% respectively; in fact, they may even have accomplished their stated goals for the futures market.

Still, let’s face it. Investors who invested in these Oil ETFs did so because they were bullish on the commodity. Instead of getting 100%, they got 1/3 or 1/2 of the upside. That’s more than a little bit of a performance disappointment.

Disclosure Statement: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. The company and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds and/or index funds mentioned above. The company does not receive compensation from any of the fund providers covered in this feature. Moreover, the commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities.

Calendar Spreads Pay Larger Premiums

Calendar spreads are a great modification of the diagonal option spread strategy. The calendar spread is useful when you are more uncertain about the direction of the market and want to increase the effectiveness of the hedge during periods of market volatility. If you are new to this concept, click here for the first article in the series on diagonal spreads or selling covered calls on LEAPS Calendar Spreads.

A calendar spread consists of two options.

  • 1. The first option is a long call with a long-term expiration date. Usually traders will use LEAPS or options with expiration dates longer than a year. This is just like the long-term call used in the diagonal spread strategy.
  • 2. The second option is a short call with a short-term expiration. That position is also similar to the short call used in the diagonal spread with one difference – it has the same strike price as the long call you purchased. The identical expiration date is what makes this a calendar spread. If you need some help understanding how to sell an option, click here.

The ratio of the premium received from the short call to the price you paid for the long call is much larger than the same ratio in the diagonal spread. However, because the short call has a lower strike price, there are smaller potential profits if the market breaks out to the upside. In the video, I will cover the details of entering a sample options calendar spread.

The larger premium compared to the amount invested in the long call creates a larger hedge against downside movement in the market. If prices drop, the larger premium from the short call will offset more losses than the short call in a diagonal spread.

This is a great way to implement the benefits of a diagonal spread in the market when you are uncertain and not very bullish.

Diagonal spreads and calendar spreads are commonly known as “time spreads” and illustrate just two popular variations of the option spreads concept.

The best way to make sure you are familiar with the trade is to experiment through paper trading. The practice will help you see how prices change as the market moves.

The Secret to Money-Doubling Trades They Don’t Want You to Know. Professional traders Nick Atkeson and Andrew Houghton reveal their proven, time-tested strategy to finding money-doubling trades in a new report. It’s the trading “secret” so effective they were banned from sharing it with you — download your FREE copy here.

Real GDP And GDP Deflator In 2011

Here are some quick notes on the new estimates of real GDP and GDP deflator for 2011. Figure 1 shows the rate of growth of real GDP at annual and quarterly basis. In 2011, the rate was 0.017 1/y, i.e. 1.7% per year, despite the rate growth in the fourth quarter of 2.7% (SAAR). Previously, we predicted a small recession in 2012 and 2013. This prediction will be updated soon when the 2010 census results are published and incorporated into the so called postcensal population estimates.

Figure 2 shows the growth of total population for the purpose of per head calculations. Please notice a large step in population between 1999 and 2000 as associated with the error of closure, i.e. the difference between intercensal estimate for 2000 and the number enumerated in the 2000 census. Figure 3 presents the rate of growth of real GDP per capita , dlnG/dt. In 2011, the rate of growth was 0.0098 1/y. This means that the total increase in population was of 0.7%.

Figure 4 shows the GDP deflator or price inflation associated with the economy as a whole. This is the most comprehensive measure of inflation as we discussed many times previously. For 2011, the GDP deflator is 2.1%. This is larger than we predicted but the last quarter signals upcoming deflation, as we foresaw six years ago. Currently, the FRB also foresees very low inflation rates through 2014.

According to our concept of GDP growth, real GDP per capita has a inertial component which is expressed in a constant annual increment, dG=const. Figure 5 updates the graph showing the evolution of real GDP per capita in the USA. One can observe a gradual return to the constant level of annual increment. This works as inertial movement in physics. However, one can expect some more years of the annual increment less than average, dG<$490 (2011 US dollars). It is worth noting that there is no output gap when real GDP per capita is considered. The evolution of the annual increment exactly follows its long term trend and the years after 2007 serve to return the annual increment curve to the trend from its highs in the late 1990s.

We have to notice that the estimates of the nominal GDP and GDP deflator are subject to revision which may be as high as several per cent (+2.1% for 2001). However, the long term trends in all presented variables fit our concept and predictions.

click to enlarge


Figure 1. The growth rate of real GDP: annual and quarterly (annualized). MA(4) for the quarterly time series. For 2011, the growth rate is 0.017 1/y.

Figure 2. The evolution of total resident population. Notice the jump between 1999 and 2000 - the closure error.

Figure 3. The growth rate of real GDP per capita. For 2011, the rate is 0.0098 1/y.

Figure 4. Annual and quarterly (annualized) price deflator of GDP. In the last quarter of 2011 the GDP deflator dropped to 0.004 1/y. This is likely a turn to deflation.

Figure 5. The increment of real GDP per capita since 1950. As predicted, the trend returns to a zero slope. There is no output gap.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Growing Dividends From Mid Cap Stocks

Active investors should try to evaluate all stocks to find the best ones for their portfolios. Unforunately, media attention is focused on large cap stocks because they are well known and on small caps because of the size effect-- the observed phenomenon that stocks with smaller market capitalizations have reaped higher returns than stocks with larger market capitalizations. This media coverage leaves mid caps high and dry.

Rather than suffer an attentional bias at the hands of the media, the following screen was performed to find attractive, dividend paying mid cap stocks:

Dividend yield. Each stock pays a dividend yield of at least 2%, which is in excess of the 10-year treasury bond and the dividend yield of the S&P 500.

Long term historical dividend growth. Each of these stocks had over a 5% average annual increase in dividend payments over the past 10 years. (Oddly, historical dividend growth is seldom discussed.) Thus, each of these dividend stocks has a long-term trend of dividend growth, which is better than the static interest payments on fixed-rate treasuries.

Long term historical return on equity. Each of these stocks has positive average ROE over the past 10 years. This criterion filters for stocks which were able to endure and prosper over the economic downturn. Furthermore, this long term history filters out firms that are experiencing a short burst of good fortune.

Price multiples, dividend histories, and return on equity histories are provided below:

Bemis Company, Inc. (BMS) recently traded at $31.55 per share. At this price level, the stock has a 3.0% dividend yield. For 10 out of the past 10 fiscal years, a share of BMS paid a total of $7.24 in dividends. Of these dividend payments, a total of $4.30 were paid in the last five years.

BMS shareholders have seen a 4.9% change in share price over the past year. At present, shares of this mid cap stock trade at a price-to-book ratio of 2.0, a price-to-earnings multiple of 18.6, and a price-to-sales multiple of 0.6 (trailing twelve months). Over the past decade shareholders savored a 13.2% average annual return on equity.

Greif, Inc. (GEF) recently traded at $48.56 per share. At this price level, the stock has a 3.5% dividend yield. For 10 out of the past 10 fiscal years, a share of GEF paid a total of $8.90 in dividends. Of these dividend payments, a total of $7.04 were paid in the last five years.

GEF shareholders have seen a 6.6% change in share price over the past year. At present, shares of this mid cap stock trade at a price-to-book ratio of 1.9, a price-to-earnings multiple of 13.1, and a price-to-sales multiple of 0.5 (trailing twelve months). Over the past decade shareholders savored a 13.1% average annual return on equity.

Hasbro Inc. (HAS) recently traded at $34.46 per share. At this price level, the stock has a 3.5% dividend yield. For 10 out of the past 10 fiscal years, a share of HAS paid a total of $4.46 in dividends. Of these dividend payments, a total of $3.56 were paid in the last five years.

HAS shareholders have seen a 8.1% change in share price over the past year. At present, shares of this mid cap stock trade at a price-to-book ratio of 3.2, a price-to-earnings multiple of 11.8, and a price-to-sales multiple of 1.1 (trailing twelve months). Over the past decade shareholders savored a 13.2% average annual return on equity.

McCormick & Co. Inc. (MKC) recently traded at $50.62 per share. At this price level, the stock has a 2.5% dividend yield. For 10 out of the past 10 fiscal years, a share of MKC paid a total of $6.88 in dividends. Of these dividend payments, a total of $4.40 were paid in the last five years.

MKC shareholders have seen a 0.4% change in share price over the past year. At present, shares of this mid cap stock trade at a price-to-book ratio of 4.2, a price-to-earnings multiple of 18.2, and a price-to-sales multiple of 1.8 (trailing twelve months). Over the past decade shareholders savored a 27.3% average annual return on equity.

Rayonier Inc. (RYN) recently traded at $45.4 per share. At this price level, the stock has a 3.5% dividend yield. For 10 out of the past 10 fiscal years, a share of RYN paid a total of $9.83 in dividends. Of these dividend payments, a total of $6.56 were paid in the last five years.

RYN shareholders have seen a 1.7% change in share price over the past year. At present, shares of this mid cap stock trade at a price-to-book ratio of 4.2, a price-to-earnings multiple of 20.6, and a price-to-sales multiple of 3.7 (trailing twelve months). Over the past decade shareholders savored a 16.6% average annual return on equity.

Each of these firms has a track-record of providing dividend income to shareholders and growing shareholder wealth through positive equity returns. HAS and GEF currently trade at attractive valuations multiples, making them interesting candidates for an income portfolio. Investors should also keep an eye on RYN, MKC, and BMS, and consider them in the future if they trade at lower price multiples.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Disclaimer: This article was written to provide investor information and education, and should not be construed as a guarantee or investment advice. I have no idea what your individual risk, time-horizon, and tax circumstances are: please seek the personal advice of a financial planner. This article uses third-party data and may contain approximations and errors. Please check estimates and data for yourself before investing. To repeat, this research does NOT constitute a guarantee.

King Pharma Income Statement Analysis for December 2009 Quarter

King Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: KG) earned $0.09 per share in the fourth quarter of 2009, which ended 31 December 2009. In the year-earlier quarter, King lost $2.25 per share, in large part due to charges associated with the company's $1.6 billion acquisition of Alpharma.

Non-GAAP "adjusted" earnings fell from $0.29 to $0.23 per share. A $41 million pretax charge for the amortization of intangible assets was the most substantial item excluded from the adjusted results in the December 2009 quarter.

This post examines King's Income Statement for the quarter and compares the entries on each line to our "look-ahead" estimates. Our EPS target was $0.22 per share, which was $0.13 more than King actually reported.

The principal source for the income statement analysis was the earnings announcement. We did not have access to a conference call transcript.

In a second article, we will report King's scores as measured by the GCFR financial gauges. The follow-up post will also provide the latest figures for the various financial metrics we use to analyze Cash Management, Growth, Profitability and Value.

King Pharmaceuticals manufactures and sells various brand-name prescription pharmaceuticals and animal health products. Additional background information about King and the business environment in which it is currently operating can be found in the look-ahead.

The Alpharma acquisition closed on 29 December 2008. When comparing King's 2009 results to those in a previous year, it is important to realize that King's historical data has not been restated to incorporate Alpharma's pre-acquisition results. For those willing to dig a little, some limited pro forma data is included in Note 7 of the financial statements in the 10-Q.

Please click here to see a full-sized, normalized depiction of the actual and projected results for the just-concluded quarter, as well as the quarterly Income Statements for the last couple of years. Please note that our organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which we use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats. The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.

Fourth-quarter Revenue of $439 million was 26.3 percent more than in the December 2008 period. However, Revenue in the latest quarter was 5 percent less than in September 2009 quarter. Because we had assumed sequential Revenue growth would continue, Revenue fell short (7 percent) of our $472 million estimate.

For the year, Revenue increased 13.5 percent, from $1.565 billion (without Alpharma) to $1.777 billion.

Sales of branded prescription pharmaceuticals totaled $277 million in the fourth quarter, unchanged from December 2008. Lower sales of King's older pharmaceuticals were apparently balanced by sales from new products, such as EMBEDA™, and products developed by Alpharma, such as the Flector® Patch.

Sales of Skelaxin®, the company's biggest product, dropped 15 percent. Sales of Thrombin-JMI® declined 23 percent. Avinza sales were unchanged.

The Flector® Patch was responsible for $43 million of sales during the fourth quarter.

Animal Health products, which also came from Alpharma, contributed Revenue of $101 million, 23 percent of King's total Revenue.

The Cost of Goods Sold -- Cost of Revenues on King's Income Statement, but not including "Acquisition related inventory step-up" costs -- was 34.4 percent of Revenue in the quarter, which translates into a Gross Margin of 65.6 percent. The Gross Margin was a more lucrative 73.1 percent in the December 2008 quarter. The addition of lower-margin Animal Health products helped bring the margin down.

The Gross Margin for the quarter was 2.4 percentage points lower than our 68-percent target.

Depreciation, Intangible Amortization, and Accelerated Depreciation expenses of $55 million in the fourth quarter were up more than 80 percent. Our estimate was $53 million.

Research and Development expenses, exclusive of milestone payments, dropped from $32 million to $27 million. Our estimate was $23 million.

Sales, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses, including minor co-promotion fees, rose 40 percent, from $105 million to $147 million. We expected $142 million.

King often records "special" non-recurring operating charges. In the fourth quarter of 2009, the charges were relatively small, only $7 million, for Asset impairments, "Acquisition related inventory step-up" costs and a few other items. The year-earlier quarter included acquisition-related charges totaling a massive $610 million.

The various operating items discussed above combined to produce Operating Income of $52 million, compared to a $522 million operating loss in the year-earlier quarter. Our Operating Income target was nearly double the actual value. Revenue was lower than we had anticipated, the Gross Margin was weaker, and many operating expenses were higher.

Net Non-Operating (primarily interest) expenses of $20 million were somewhat greater than the $18 million we had forecast. The latest quarter included a $5 million investment loss.

The effective Income Tax Rate was 30.6 percent, significantly lower than our 37-percent target.

At the bottom line, Net Income was $22 million ($0.09 per share). In 2008's fourth quarter, King lost $548 million ($2.25 per share). Reported earnings were much less than our $54 million ($0.22 per share) estimate.

Although King had many significant accomplishments during 2009, Revenue in the fourth quarter was less than that in either the second or third quarter. Sales of important branded products were down substantially compared to the year-earlier period. Many operating expenses were higher.

Full disclosure: Long KG at time of writing.

Tax Planning Advice: Gift Assets Likely to Appreciate--Benjamin Ledyard

This is the 23d and final in a series of 23 tax tips thatAdvisorOne has published on each business day in March as part of our Tax Planning Special Report (see our Special Report calendar for a more complete list of topics to be covered and experts who will deliver their insights).

The tax tip today comes from Benjamin Ledyard, director of Wealth Strategies and regional director of the Mid-Atlantic for Silver Bridge Advisors. During his 15 years of experience in wealth management, he has developed expertise in financial, tax, wealth transfer, risk management, investment oversight, family governance, business succession, executive benefits and philanthropic planning.Ledyard holds aJD from Widener University School of Law and a bachelor’s degree from the University of Delaware. 

A member of the Pennsylvania and American Bar Associations, he is also a member of the National Association of Estate Planning Councils, the Estate Planning Council of Delaware and the Wilmington Tax Group.

The Tip: Gift Depressed Assets That Are Likely to Appreciate

The Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 was a call to action for families who wish to transfer wealth through gift planning. The temporary rise of the lifetime gift exclusion from $1 million to $5 million—a 500% rise—provides families, says Ledyard (left), with an extraordinary opportunity to transfer assets before death—but the opportunity is scheduled to expire at the end of 2012

Which Assets Are Appropriate to Gift? “The best assets to gift are those you won’t need, those that have a high likelihood of appreciation, such as depressed real estate holdings or a business interest, but also something heirs won’t just go out and liquidate.” As well, donors should not give away income-producing assets they might need in the future. If the gift is cash, it may be wise to set up some kind of trust for “spendthrift protection,” especially for youthful heirs.

For minors, this may mean a Uniform Transfer To Minors (UTMA) or Uniform Gift To Minors (UGMA) account, both of which are managed by custodians, and into which parents, grandparents, relatives or friends can make irrevocable transfers in any amount. If the donor, acting as custodian, dies before the funds are turned over to the child, usually at age 18 or 21, the account may be taxable as part of the donor's estate.

Life insurance, says Ledyard, is an especially good asset to consider giving awayat present because of the increased lifetime gift exclusion. Life insurance, created as a death benefit for one's children or to pass along a business, becomes part of a person's taxable estate if he or she is listed as the owner of the policy, no matter who is named as beneficiary. Ledyard says life insurance can be gifted by signing over ownership of the policy to another person (presumably a family member such as a spouse) or by putting it in a trust, for example, an irrevocable life insurance trust.

See ourTax Planning Special Report calendar for a list of all topics covered in our month-long report.

Global gains from high yield corporates


AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund (AWF) is a closed-end fund that invests primarily in high-yield corporate bonds and, to a lesser extent, emerging market sovereign debt.

High-yield debt consists of bonds issued by companies or governments that are rated below investment grade by the major credit ratings agencies such as Standard & Poor's and Moody's.

Roughly two-thirds of the fund's holdings are rated below investment grade, and the average coupon rate of the fund's bond holdings is just over 8.5%.

Companies and governments rated below investment grade carry higher credit risk, meaning that the odds they'll be unable to repay their borrowings are theoretically higher than for a company carrying an investment-grade credit rating.

Since the risk of default is higher, high-yield bonds tend to carry higher interest rates than investment-grade debt, a means of compensating investors for the extra risk they're taking.
With rates in the investment grade corporate and government bond markets so low, investors have been looking for higher-yielding alternatives, including high-yield debt. That's powered a significant rally in the exact sort of bonds that AWF focuses on.

For example, the fund's largest holding is a bond issued by the Argentinean government that matures in October 2015 that currently yields around 9%. Argentina has a credit rating of "B" from Standard & Poor's and "B3" from Moody's, several steps below investment grade.

There's no doubt the country has its share of economic and political problems. But Argentina's sovereign debt has seen a significant rally since August as investors are attracted to its high yields and solid economic fundamentals.

AWF's second-largest holding is a series of corporate bonds issued by Russian Agricultural Bank that are rated "BBB", the lowest possible investment-grade credit rating.

While banks in the U.S. and Europe have been troubled in recent years by bad loans made to residential homebuyers and shaky E.U. countries, Russian banks have relatively clean balance sheets.

Russia is a major exporter of natural gas, oil, coal and other commodities and continues to benefit from strong demand and pricing for its natural resources.

And the fund has little exposure whatsoever to debt issued by corporates or governments in fiscally challenged E.U. nations. Only around 0.5% of the fund's total portfolio is invested in bonds issued by Italian firms.

AWF pays a $0.10 monthly distribution, equivalent to a yield of roughly 8.4% at current prices.

Action to Take --> With a well-diversified portfolio of high-yield bonds offering a yield over 8%, AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund is a solid buy candidate with moderate risk.


The Fresh Market: Good Candidate for a Short Sale (With One Caveat)

A Fruitful Business for the Berry Family

In 1982, Ray Berry and his wife opened the first Fresh Market (TFM) in Greensboro, North Carolina with the vision of creating an intimate premium grocery store that recalled an old world market featuring excellent customer service and high quality food. Today, The Fresh Market operates 100 stores across 20 states, with many locations in the Southeast, particularly Florida. In a November 2010 IPO, approximately one third of the company was sold by the founding family to the public for $22 per share. As an IPO in an arguably frothy stock market, with a compelling growth story in the hot natural/organic foods space, The Fresh Market has more than doubled in price to $45 per share as of this writing.

Thesis

At a significant premium to its most relevant comp Whole Foods (WFMI), The Fresh Market trades at over 2X sales and 50X 2010E earnings and is priced to perfection even using optimistic growth assumptions. As The Fresh Market expands beyond its traditional base of Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, the company will have to execute rapid expansion flawlessly in order to meet the market’s lofty expectations and even then shareholders are probably not being compensated for the stock’s risk.

For these reasons, The Fresh Market’s stock is overvalued on both an absolute and relative basis, and is a good candidate for a short sale, with the caveat that shorting a growth stock based solely on valuation has its risks (Read: OPEN). On the other hand, this is no sexy “network effect” tech business with the possibility of bringing on new revenue streams, or even a company with decreasing incremental costs; it is simply a high-end food retailer at a very high-end price.

Growth Story

In the past ten years, The Fresh Market has tripled its store base to one hundred stores. Considering only three states, Florida (24 stores), Georgia (15 stores) and North Carolina (10 stores) comprise 49% of their store base, the rest of the United States offers ample ground for expansion (see store map below). An independent consulting group estimates that the U.S. consumer can sustainably support 500 stores before the concept reaches maturity. The Fresh Market caters to an affluent customer, so while mainstream grocers’ store counts number in the thousands, The Fresh Market’s delicious high quality foods are well out of the price range of most shoppers.

Operating History : Gangbuster Growth Tempered by Recession

The IPO Prospectus reveals The Fresh Market’s impressive performance and growth over the past 5 years (see table below). In the years at the top of the housing/credit-fueled consumer spending explosion (2005-2007), The Fresh Market grew store count by 45% (53-77 stores), while increasing same store sales in each year, achieving peak store sales per square foot of $533 for 2007. Following the collapse of the financial and real estate markets and the ensuing recession, The Fresh Market’s same store sales growth rates turned negative, but revenue and earnings increased due to increase in-store count which was up 28% (77-99) from the end of 2007 to the present.

This makes sense especially given the company’s concentration in housing market-sensitive Florida, which was and still is hit hard by the recession. As you can see from the first 9 months 2009/2010 comparison, The Fresh Market has rebounded somewhat in terms of same store sales. But annualizing the first 9 months of 2010, sales per square foot come to $457, still well below the 2007 peak of $533. (Note : There is surely some seasonality at work by leaving out the fourth quarter). Nevertheless, The Fresh Market appears to be recovering and poised to continue growing its store count as it expands into new markets. However, it would take a prolonged economic recovery to reach per store sales metrics of 2007.

click to enlarge

Unsustainable High Net Margins Ending with Tax Status Change

From 2005-present, The Fresh Market’s operating margins have fluctuated between 4% and just above 6%, very nice for a grocer, while its net margins have been only 30 to 70 bps below that almost solely from interest expense. An astute reader may think something must be amiss in that The Fresh Market’s tax rate has essentially been nil. This is correct. Prior to becoming a public company, The Fresh Market was organized as a family-run S Corporation and was not taxed at the company level. Instead family members have paid taxes at the individual level using both dividends from the company and borrowings on the company’s credit facility. As The Fresh Market transitions from a family-run S Corp. to a publicly traded C Corp., its tax rate will increase dramatically from 0% to an estimated 39% using the prospectus’ own projections and Whole Foods’ tax rate of 40%. Here are the pro forma numbers from the prospectus, showing more realistic, slimmer net margins, which will be used in the valuation model:

Valuation Model

Using the financial information offered in the prospectus along with some growth projections, we can attempt to value The Fresh Market. Since we have a reasonable estimate of a mature store base and 5 years of operating data, a rough method of valuing the company is to predict the value of the mature company in today’s dollars, then estimate how long the company will take to reach maturity. For our most bullish of bull cases, we will assume the market can accommodate 600 stores producing $550 per square foot at net margins of a very healthy 4.5%. It should be noted that this store base is 20% higher than that of the independent consultants’ estimation, the net margins have never been obtained by The Fresh Market on a pro forma after tax basis, and that sales per square foot were $533 at The Fresh Market’s peak per store performance, when its stores were concentrated in a Florida economy on real estate steroids. Our less pie-in-the-sky projections can be seen in the table.

At its current market capitalization of $2.2B, The Fresh Market is currently valued at around 15X our base case maturity earnings projections and above all of our bear case projections, which are not too pessimistic. But let us be generous and bull-market investors and assume that The Fresh Market can indeed earn $300M one day and be worth $6B. How long will it take The Fresh Market to build out to 600 stores? It built around 10 per year in the previous years to get from 50 to 100. How many years will it take to go from 100 to 600?

This is not the type of business where each incremental unit costs less to produce. New stores cost the company around $4M. Opening 500 stores would cost The Fresh Market around $2B. Since the company, intends to use all after tax/maintenance free cash flow to fund new store openings, we can estimate the pace at which The Fresh Market can open new stores by projecting its future cash flows. Pro forma net income for the first nine months of 2010 was $25M, or $33M annualized. Giving an unscientific $5M bump for seasonality comes to $38M and adding back $30M of depreciation which appears overstated, reveals around $68M for an estimate of operating cash flow or $680K per store. The VERY rudimentary model below estimates 13 years for a build-out to maturity.

While this model is certainly not without flaws, 13 years is an adequately bullish estimate of the time it would take for The Fresh Market to sextuple its store base. In my opinion, it is downright euphoric, considering the difficulties of rapidly expanding a business. Assuming all goes smoothly and The Fresh Market does indeed grow to become a 600 store national grocer within 13 years and it commands a P/E of 20 as a mature company, an investment at its current market capitalization of $2.2B will have returned 177% over the period, or 7.5% annualized. Think about that for a second. With extremely generous assumptions, The Fresh Market will have merely been a respectable investment, but certainly not a home run. Or put another way, is 7.5% per year enough to compensate an investor for the the The Fresh Market's risks which include food price inflation, increasing competition, and expansion execution? If The Fresh Market takes longer to expand the returns investors to investors will be much lower. Using the same bullish maturity value and 20 years, results in an annualized return of about 5%.

Historical Context: Whole Foods
Whole Foods currently operates 300 stores. They too once had 100 stores in 20 states (just like The Fresh Market) all the way back in 2000. While its taken 10 years for Whole Foods to triple its store base opening 20 new stores per year, we assumed 13 years for The Fresh Market to sextuple its at 38 new stores per year. Sure Fresh Market stores are smaller and perhaps there are more suitable locations, but can the company grow much more quickly? Compare those figures to the 10 per year the The Fresh Market has opened in the past 5 years and 14 in their year of greatest expansion (2006-2007). Also note that the idea of straight-up, unstopped expansion pays no heed to the effects of the business cycle, and the inelastic demand for The Fresh Market's expensive gourmet food.

According to its annual report for the year 1999, Whole Foods made $42M in net income from 100 stores and traded between $37-58 on 26M shares outstanding for a market cap of $962-$1.5B ($using 1.5B around 35X earnings compared to TFM's 55X). Using $58/share ($15 adjusted for splits and dilution) Whole Foods has given shareholders a 300% return and 14% annualized in the past ten years excluding dividends: a great growth investment. But The Fresh Market trades for $2.2B, 50% higher than Whole Foods' 2000 market cap. Another way to put this is that The Fresh Market would have to more than duplicate Whole Foods' last ten years of growth to be the home run that was Whole Foods. Remember, that The Fresh Market would have to open its smaller stores stores at nearly double the rate of Whole Foods to maintain similar growth in revenue and earnings. All the while, The Fresh Market has the go-go days of the housing bubble behind it from which it benefited disproportionately with so many stores in Florida, and the company enters new geographies with increasing competition (Trader Joe's, Whole Foods, upmarket brands of traditional supermarkets). A repeat of the Whole Foods story is simply not probable and at today's valuation will not provide a repeat of WFMI's returns.

A More Likely Scenario : Slowing Growth and Increasing Competition

While it would be nice if The Fresh Market could be a $6B dollar company one day, it is much more likely that the company will encounter increasing difficulties to maintain its impressive growth rates as it expands out of the Southeast and into markets where competitors have stronger footholds. With half their stores in three states, expansion into new territories, is unlikely to drive significant synergies or economies of scale, perhaps leading to margin decline. Look back at the historical financials and notice that operating margins above 5% were not realized until store count growth slowed during the recession. Shareholders buying in at these prices will end up disappointed in the long term. Furthermore, The Fresh Market and other premium grocers like Whole Foods have been excellent growth stories over the past decade and enjoyed very high returns on capital employed. But do these companies possess any sort of long term competitive advantage? Good natural food is good natural food. In the long term, competitive pressures may decrease industry wide-margins which are higher than traditional groceries.

Near Term Catalyst : End of Lockup Period for Family

While this analysis may convince you that The Fresh Market is overvalued, it is another thing to convince you to short the stock. The trade is easy to put on as a retail investor with easy borrow (Short Ratio of 8 according to shortsqueeze.com) and decent liquidity, but markets can be irrational for years, why short TFM now? The answer lay in The Fresh Market’s ownership, which is concentrated in the hands of the Berry family and other insiders to the tune of 63%, including around 10% owned by family members who do not work for the company. Following a 180-day lockup period after the November IPO (around May), insiders with the most knowledge of the company and its prospects will be free to sell their stock on the open market. Considering the family agreed to sell 1/3 of their company to underwriters for $20.50/share in November, it will be awfully tempting for family members to cash out at today’s prices in the $40’s. Selling in May and going away would be a good choice for them. This selling pressure may give the stock a much needed reality check. Also, in any sort of equity correction, overvalued high-flying growth stories are vulnerable to particularly harsh declines. See Whole Foods price history as an example.

Risks to Short Thesis

The biggest risk to the thesis is that you are shorting a growth stock with a small public float and into heavy upward momentum. If you are very bullish on the equity market, this trade is not for you, unless perhaps paired against the less expensive, still growing WFMI. Even if TFM is overpriced, a valuation correction still may not happen and the supposed onslaught of insider selling may never come. The Fresh Market may engage in some sort of transaction to lower its tax rate and/or raise capital to build stores more quickly than expected. Also, possibilities for international growth or acquisition were not taken into consideration. The analysis also failed to take into account the effects of inflation on the company's operations, be they negative or positive.

Disclosure: I am short TFM.