3 Cheap Consumer Stocks with Big Upside

When I was in junior high school in the late 1970s, pessimism about the economy was all around. My friends' parents were uniformly convinced the United States was in the midst of a great decline that would spell trouble for my generation. I started to believe it and grew depressed. Thankfully, an American revival was just around the corner, with an economic recovery in the 1980s and a subsequent boom in the 1990s.

And now it's happening again. Everyone I've been speaking to is expecting a long period of economic pain that will lead to a steady drop in living standards. But just as the sky wasn't really falling back then, it isn't now either. It's a bit premature to presume a profound economic renaissance like the one we saw under Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, but it's also unwise to buy into the "America's in decline" scenario. Simply put, economic slowdowns are necessary to "clear the decks," setting the stage for the next period of economic expansion.

 

In this context, it's important to revisit currently-held notions about consumer-facing businesses. Many of them are trading at absurdly low valuations, anticipating an extended period of flat profit growth. But if you could peer around the corner -- and if you had a multi-year time frame -- then you'd see a very different picture.

Already depressed -- and profitable
Let's take Ford Motor (NYSE: F) as an example. The automaker has been counting on the U.S. and European markets for roughly three quarters of its profits and sales (though an aggressive emerging-markets push could soon change this picture). You would think a primary reliance on U.S. and European consumers would spell tough times for Ford. After all, total car and truck sales in North America and Europe are off roughly 30% to 40% from a half decade ago. Yet Ford is on track to earn roughly $2! a share this year. If Ford hits this mark, then it would be a company record. Notably, unemployment levels remain high and consumer confidence surveys are posting very low readings. Just imagine what would be possible under different circumstances.

What is Ford's reaction to the gloom?
 

These actions come as 9% of the U.S. population is officially unemployed and another 6% aren't even being included in the tally. Ford is focusing on the other 85% of the workforce that's buying cars and trucks. The fact that shares trade for five times trailing and projected earnings (about $9.40) shows you just how deep the gloom is over this consumer-facing stock.

Supply below demand
Even as many of these consumer-facing businesses await an upturn in demand, they're still generating very impressive profits simply by keeping supply low. For example, Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL) is cutting its least profitable flights, ensuring its remaining flights fill up more quickly. So in an era of minimal economic growth, Delta still managed to earn $1.71 in 2010 -- its second-best performance on record (behind 2007).

A spike in oil prices is crimping profits this year, but oil prices have recently eased, so analysts expect Delta's earnings per share (EPS) to reach $1.88 in 2012.  You can only imagine what Delta's profitability will look like with just a modest improvement in employment trends. Meanwhile, shares trade for four times projected 2012 profits (about $6.65), which is why I think this stock can double in a year or two.

A business grows and a stock price shrinks
Let's look at retailer Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) as another example. The company has a virtually unbroken streak of exceptional quarterly execution. Management has been laying out plans and meeting them, again and again. Kohl's sales and profits have doubled in the past 10 years, yet its stock ! is right back to where it was a decade ago.

Of course, the tough economy has a negative effect on Kohl's growth strategy. The retailer has heavily throttled back plans or new store openings, and will likely only boost sales 5% this year and next. Thanks to ongoing procurement and supply chain improvements, along with a move toward more higher-margin private-label goods, Kohl's should still be able to boost EPS more than 20% in 2011 and nearly 15% in 2012. Trading under 10 times projected (fiscal) 2013 earnings (about $47.74) is a rare low-point for this widely-held stock. If this is a solid profit grower in a lousy economy, then imagine what growth would look like when employment trends finally start to improve.

Risks to Consider: These stocks sport single-digit multiples simply because it's unclear when economic conditions will improve. And they may stay cheap for another year or so, until investors feel the worst has passed.

> The U.S. economy is stagnant and possibly headed for contraction. Yet it's important not to conflate near-term economic sentiment with the longer-term macro backdrop. The U.S. economy has struggled many times before and invariably has snapped back to life. If you wait until economic trends improve, then there's a good chance companies like Ford, Delta and Kohl's won't be available for single-digit multiples by the time you're ready to buy. The fact that these companies are solidly profitable even in tough times speaks volumes about what they can earn when the economy finally turns.

Creative Investments Battle Soaring Tuition

A new school year is in full swing and, as anyone with a student off to college for the first time can attest, the expenses will be substantial and ever-increasing.

Hearing the war stories of their neighbors can trigger some understandable panic on the part of parents with young children. Saving for college is neither as simple, nor as effective, as it used to be. Unique strategies may be the only way to afford higher education.

"It is the biggest expense our clients will incur, second to the purchase of their home," says Denis Horrigan, CFP, a partner at Connecticut Wealth Management, a firm offering financial planning and asset management through LPL Financial that actively manages more than $200 million in client assets.

Horrigan estimates that a family with three children may expect to find the cost of a private institution will cost upward of $800,000 before scholarships, grants or aid kick in.

Several challenges confront families, even if they start planning while their kids are young. A short time horizon escalates the pace of saving and makes down market cycles potentially devastating. The rising cost of secondary education also makes the savings goal a moving target.

Horrigan draws a comparison between saving for college and planning for retirement.

"When you are saving for retirement, what you are trying to do is grow your assets at a rate that's greater than the general inflation rate," he says. "Well, when the general inflation rate is 3% that's attainable. With the inflation rate of college education at about 6% a year, that becomes your hurdle. If you are putting money in a savings account earning 1%, you are going backwards. Your best option is to utilize some sort of investment vehicle."

Increasingly, new solutions are being offered to help families save for college.

Since the 1990s, states have offered 529 Plans, tax advantaged investments (the earnings grow tax deferred) that o! perate s imilar to how a 401(k) or IRA does. Each state has retained firms that manage an investable slate of funds. Investors are not limited by geography when choosing to establish a plan.

Even though asset levels took a major hit during the recession, eroding a large chunk of many families' savings right as their children reached college age, the plans remain popular and their use is growing.

Assets of 529 college savings plan rose in the second quarter of 2011 to reach $149.8 billion, up 2.4% from the first quarter and 27% from $117.6 billion a year earlier, according to research by Financial Research, a financial services consulting firm in Boston, and the nonprofit College Savings Foundation.

Competition among states has led to some creative approaches by the plan providers.

In Arkansas, for example, BlackRock(BK) offers -- through financial advisers -- the iShares 529 plan, the only 529 plan made up solely of ETFs as the underlying investments.

The plans offer a variety of customized portfolios based on a target date of the student starting college.

In April, a report by FRC and CSF said index funds represent the fastest-growing segment of 529 plan options.

According to the report, CSF members (who manage between 40% and 45% of overall assets in the 529 industry) reported that, as of De. 31, more than $5 billion was invested in index options, a nearly 25% increase on an annual basis. This compared with assets under management increases of approximately 8% and 18%, respectively, for the population overall. BlackRock says the iShares 529 Plan has seen its assets double year over year.

Stephen Jobe, director of the iShares 529 Plan, credits the success and increased demand to the benefits of its ETF approach, notably transparency, low cost and the avoidance of "style drift."

The holdings are all based on popular and recognized indices, and daily updates are o! ffered o nline. The funds closely follow certain indices, providing access to specific sectors and asset classes while remaining "consistent with the portfolio's objective," Jobe says. The traditional mutual funds held by 529 plans may disclose their holdings as infrequently as twice a year.

According to the FRC/CSF report, the industry average annual asset-based fee for adviser-sold 529 Plans was 1.16%, compared with 0.62% for the iShares 529 Plan. Because the plan is available only via fee-based financial advisers, there is an added cost that directly sold plans don't incur. A full breakdown of fee comparisons is offered online by BlackRock.

There are other savings approaches aside from 529 plans. Establishing a Roth IRA is one vehicle that may not spring to mind as an immediate option.

"There are limits to contributions and so forth, but a Roth IRA is one way a parent, particularly depending upon their income bracket, could put money aside and make the decision, when the time comes, to either use it for their own retirement or withdraw the principal amount tax free and utilize that for college expenses," Patti says.

For grandparents, as well as other family members or friends, lending a hand needs to be carefully considered.

When it comes to financial aid applications, federal documents ask only for an accounting of assets held by the student and his or her parents.

"At no point on this financial aid application does it ask about the assets of grandparents," says Patricia Kane, CFP, senior financial adviser for Connecticut Wealth Management.

So are the 529 savings donated by grandparents effectively shelters and hidden from view?

"We always use some kind of caution here in that at the federal level they may not be asking for it, but the individual schools themselves might ask if there are any college saving in the student's name outside of they and their parents," Kane says.

Grandparents, and othe! r relati ves, may want to consider 529 plans as an estate planning tool.

"One of the strategies that planners will suggest to folks of high net worth is to gift assets out of their estate to other people," Horrigan says. "So a 529 plan is essentially a gift from the grandparent to the grandchild, for example. It is the only tool we are familiar with that actually allows the grandparent to make an irrevocable gift to someone else, in this case the grandchild, but still have control over it. They have control in terms of how the money is invested and over who uses the money because the money can slide from sibling to sibling within a family. Normally in estate planning when you make a completed gift you give up all control of that money."

Horrigan says another approach, the most direct, is to simply cut a check.

"It isn't really a plan, in fact it is the absence of one in many ways," he says. "The federal government tells us how much money we can give to any one person before there are gift taxes due. However, that same grandparent, who is limited to giving a certain amount of money to their grandchild in a given year, can directly pay the full bill for that child's tuition, room and board, and expenses. Whereas they can only give $13,000 this year, they could write a check for $55,000 to Harvard and there is no gift tax due."

It is uncommon to see an entire tuition bill gifted as such, though, Horrigan says. Typically a partial payment is made directly to the school.

Students saving on their own are at a disadvantage. Any money they save and invest could work against them when financial aid is calculated.

"For every dollar that you have saved in assets, the federal government assumes that up to 36 cents of that dollar can be spent on college," he says, explaining the financial aid eligibility formula. "When your parents have a dollar saved, only six cents is assumed [available for spending on a] college educati! on. The worst place to save money and still qualify for student loans and grants is in the student's own name. The best place is in someone else's name."

Newt Gingrich Paid $1.5 Million by Freddie Mac

A former Freddie Mac official said GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich received at least $1.5 million for consulting contracts with the housing agency from 1999-2002 and 2006-2007.

The official spoke anonymously, according to The Associated Press, as that number was significantly larger than the $300,000 the former House Speaker originally was asked about at a presidential debate last week for his work at Freddie Mac.

Gingrich, who has gained significant ground in the polls the past month, signed on with Freddie Mac in 1999 as a strategic consultant and held the post until sometime in 2002. Freddie Mac paid $25,000 to $30,000 a month, according to the AP.

Gingrich returned in 2006 to the agency on a two-year contract that paid $300,000 a year, which the AP said was to defend Freddie Mac against attacks by the Republican right wing.

Gingrich's campaign released a statement on Wednesday that said the candidate never lobbied for Freddie Mac and that he offered strategic advice to many clients besides the housing agency.

"The Gingrich Group offered strategic advice to a wide variety of clients about a wide variety of issues," the statement said. "Gingrich Group fees were comparable to that of many consulting firms."

When questioned in the debate about his role, the former House Speaker said he offered Freddie Mac advice on lending practices to do "precisely what they didn't do."

Other former Freddie Mac executives have disputed this account from Gingrich, the AP reported.

>Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/JoeDeaux.

Inside Avis Budget Group Inc.’s Upcoming Third Quarter Earnings Release

Avis Budget Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAR) will unveil its latest earnings on Wednesday, November 2, 2011. Avis Budget Group provides car and truck rentals and ancillary services to businesses and consumers in the United States and internationally.

Avis Budget Group, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for profit of 99 cents per share, a rise of 26.9% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. The average estimate is the same as three months ago. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate was unchanged. It also has not changed during the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting net income of $1.85 per share, a rise of more than twofold from last year.

Past Earnings Performance: The company has beaten estimates the last four quarters and is coming off a quarter where it topped forecasts by 32 cents, reporting profit of 63 cents per share against a mean estimate of net income of 31 cents per share.

Wall St. Revenue Expectations: Analysts are projecting a rise of 6% in revenue from the year-earlier quarter to $1.6 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts are bullish on this stock with five analysts rating it as a buy, none rating it as a sell and none rating it as a hold.

A Look Back: In the second quarter, profit rose twofold to $52 million (42 cents a share) from $26 million (22 cents a share) the year earlier, exceeding analyst expectations. Revenue rose 9.1% to $1.41 billion from $1.29 billion.

Key Stats:

Revenue has risen the past four quarters. Revenue rose 7.1% in the first quarter from the year earlier, climbed 5.7% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year from the year-ago quarter and 3.2% in the third quarter of the last fiscal year.

Competitors to Watch: Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group, Inc. (NYSE:! DTG), He rtz Global Hldgs., Inc. (NYSE:HTZ), AMERCO (NASDAQ:UHAL), Zipcar, Inc. (NASDAQ:ZIP), Ryder System, Inc. (NYSE:R).

Stock Price Performance: During September 29, 2011 to October 27, 2011, the stock price had risen $4.27 (42.4%) from $10.08 to $14.35. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between February 2, 2011 and February 17, 2011 when shares rose for 12-straight days, rising 17% (+$2.40) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between July 7, 2011 and July 18, 2011 when shares fell for eight-straight days, falling 12.7% (-$2.26) over that span. Shares are down $1.21 (-7.8%) year to date.

 

Stop the Stop Online Piracy Act Now

Over the past month, a battle has been brewing in Congress, and the fate of the Internet is on the line. The stakes are huge, and so are the companies lining up and picking sides. Which side are you on?

The proposed bipartisan bill in question is called the Stop Online Piracy Act, or SOPA, which builds off the Protect IP Act proposed earlier this year. Its title is self-explanatory in that it aims to stop online-content piracy, which in itself is a noble cause. I think we can all agree that piracy is a bad thing. It's bad for businesses, it's bad for content creators and artists, and it's ultimately bad for consumers because it inevitably destroys the incentive to create.

Why stop SOPA?
Instead, what's so unsettling about SOPA is its proposed implementation and its implications in regard to net neutrality and censorship. The bill targets "rogue" websites that are primarily dedicated to piracy, copyright infringement, counterfeiting, and generally anything your mother wouldn't approve of. Many are based outside the United States, putting them out of our government's jurisdiction to shut them down altogether.

Websites in violation would be added to a DNS blacklist, which would effectively block access to those sites for average users. This is notably the same method that countries like Iran, China, and Syria use to censor the Internet from their citizens, which is something our own government has publicly decried on multiple occasions. It would be terribly hypocritical if we enacted a similar system of censorship.

"I own that!"
SOPA differs from the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, or DMCA, that was inked in 1998. The DMCA included "takedown notices," through which an owner of intellectual property could demand the content's removal. Included in the DMCA was a crucial Safe Harbor Provision that made sure not to penalize sites that host user-submitted content, transferring any potential liability from the site to the infringing user, so lon! g as the site made good-faith efforts to remove infringing content.

Under the new bill, an entire site could be crippled, as a copyright holder could force Internet service providers, ad networks, search engines, and even payment processors to cut off access and payments to any "infringing" site. SOPA would undermine DMCA safe-harbor provisions, transfer much of the onus of compliance from users and content owners to sites, and open the door to lawsuits targeting sites based on user-posted content.

Those in favor?
Some of the main proponents of the bill are those in the media business who are seeing the fruits of their labor being illegally shared. That list includes the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), which has tried numerous angles to battle rampant piracy in the music biz. You also have the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) backing the bill on behalf of Hollywood movie studios. The RIAA and MPAA have both been waging war on pirates for years to little avail.

The Business Software Alliance (BSA), which is an industry group that represents the interests of software and hardware players alike and includes some powerful members, was also onboard the SOPA train. Thanks to the BSA's initial support, an army of massive tech powerhouses are implicitly in favor of the bill, including Adobe, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) , Autodesk, Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) , Intel (Nasdaq: INTC  ) , Dell (Nasdaq: DELL  ) , Symantec, and more.

But in a recent turn of events, the BSA has now issued a statement saying that SOPA "needs work to address innovation considerations" and now wants to work with lawmakers to resolve the bill's weaknesses while pursuing its goals.

Those against?
While acknowledging tha! t SOPA a ddresses a valid concern, another group of bigwigs is congregating in opposition to the bill in its current iteration. Many of the companies that are stacking up against SOPA rely heavily on the DMCA's Safe Harbor Provisions, since they feature large quantities of user-submitted content.

Together, AOL (NYSE: AOL  ) , eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY  ) , Facebook, Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) , LinkedIn, Mozilla, Twitter, Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO  ) , and Zynga all took out a full-page ad in The New York Times recently to publish an open letter opposing the measures. The companies argue that the Internet's inherent openness has contributed to economic growth, job creation, and innovation, and that the proposed censorship would "jeopardize the foundational structure" that has benefitted content owners and Internet companies alike.

What's it mean for investors?
Google Chairman Eric Schmidt has called SOPA "draconian," and Google warned that investment in Internet startups would dry up from a dramatically riskier legal environment. The open Internet is a breeding ground for innovation, with startups popping up daily, and many of them heavily incorporating social aspects and user-generated content.

If you think today's patent and intellectual-property environment is overzealous, just think how much worse it would be if SOPA passes, opening a floodgate of lawsuits and blocked websites.

Think of all the dot-com darlings we've come to love as investors. More importantly, think of the ones that are still in utero that we may love tomorrow (think of the children!). Think of Facebook's inevitable IPO, Yelp's upcoming debut, or Zynga's public future. SOPA would negatively transform the risk profiles of these Netizens and countless others in a negati! ve way.< /p>

Collateral damage
SOPA has a good heart and pure intentions, but in reality, law-abiding sites and well-intended companies would end up taking the brunt of the downside and tech-savvy pirates would still find ways to circumvent the blockade.

If passed, SOPA would probably have negligible success in achieving its stated goal while threatening to take away the two things that we love most about the Internet: freedom and openness.

If you agree, add your name to this petition asking Congress to stop SOPA now.

Which side are you on? Would SOPA do more harm than good? Or would it be effective in battling piracy? Weigh in using the comments box below.

Sirona Dental Q4 Earnings Top Estimates On Double-Digit Revenue Growth

Sirona Dental Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRO) posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings, helped by double-digit revenue growth, sending its shares 4.2 percent higher to $45.00 in Friday's pre-market trading.

Net income fell to $13.8 million or 24 cents per share for the fourth quarter from $24.7 million or 44 cents per share in the corresponding period of last year.

On a non-GAAP basis, earnings per share increased to 68 cents from 44 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Revenue rose 19.6 percent, or 11.8 percent on a constant currency basis, to $218.8 million. Revenue at the company's CAD/CAM Systems segment grew 10.9 percent. Revenue at Imaging Systems segment soared 42.9 percent, while revenue at Instruments segment rose 11.3 percent, the company said.

Analysts, on average, polled by Thomson Reuters expected the company to earn 62 cents a share on revenue of $213.96 million.

Looking ahead for the full year, the company sees revenue growth in the range of 6 percent to 8 percent on a constant currency basis.

New, York-based Sirona, which has been trading in the 52-week range between $32.00 and $57.87, ended Thursday's regular trading session at $43.45.

{$end}

Microsoft Management Discusses Q1 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Executives

Bill Koefoed - General Manager of Investor Relations

Peter S. Klein - Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

Brent Thill - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Richard G. Sherlund - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Adam H. Holt - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Gregg Moskowitz - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division

Tim Klasell - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division

Brendon Barnicle - Pacific Crest Securities, Inc., Research Division

Jason Maynard - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Colin Gillis - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division

Kash G. Rangan - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Edward Maguire - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division

John S. DiFucci - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Heather Bellini - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Brad Reback - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division

Philip Winslow - Cr��dit Suisse AG, Research Division

Mark L. Moerdler - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division

Walter H. Pritchard - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Capital Goods Sector Review: Winning and Losing Stocks

Wall St. Watchdog reveals information about today��s action in the Capital Goods (NYSE:XLI) sector:

Gainers (% price change)

  • Actuant Corporation (NYSE:ATU): The shares closed at $19.94, up $0.56, or 2.89%, on the day. Its market capitalization is $1.37 billion. About the company: Actuant Corporation manufactures and markets a broad range of industrial products and systems. The Company sells branded, specialized electrical and industrial tools to hydraulic and electrical wholesale distributors, to catalog houses, and through retail distribution channels. Actuant also designs and markets customized motion control systems for original equipment manufacturers.
  • Layne Christensen Company (NASDAQ:LAYN): The shares closed at $23.19, up $0.44, or 1.93%, on the day. Its market capitalization is $455.26 million. About the company: Layne Christensen Company provides water well drilling, mineral exploration drilling, geotechnical construction, oil and gas services, and related products and services. The company’s customers include municipalities, industrial, oil, gas, and mining companies, and consulting and engineering firms located in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Australia, Africa, and South America.
  • Met-Pro Corporation (NYSE:MPR): The shares closed at $8.89, up $0.13, or 1.48%, on the day. Its market capitalization is $130.32 million. About the company: Met-Pro Corporation manufactures and sells product recovery and pollution control equipment for purification of air and liquids. The Company also manufactures fluid handling equipment for corrosive, abrasive, and high temperature liquids. Met-Pro sells its products around the world.
  • Hitachi, Ltd. (NYSE:HIT): The shares closed at $50.16, up $0.46, or 0.93%, on the day. Its market capitalization is $22.66 billion. About the company: Hitachi, Ltd. manufactures communications and electronic equipment, heavy electrical and industr! ial mach inery, and consumer electronics. The Company’s diverse product line ranges from nuclear power systems to kitchen appliances. Hitachi also operates subsidiaries in the wire and cable, metal, and chemical industries.
  • Elbit Systems Ltd. (NASDAQ:ESLT): The shares closed at $40.68, up $0.28, or 0.69%, on the day. Its market capitalization is $1.74 billion. About the company: Elbit Systems Ltd. designs, develops and supplies integrated defense systems. The Company also designs, develops, manufactures, markets and supports military electronic systems and products.

Losers (% price change)

  • Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp. (NYSE:AP): The shares closed at $19.89, down $2.03, or 9.26%, on the day. Its market capitalization is $205.38 million. About the company: Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation manufactures engineered equipment. The Company produces finned tube heat exchange coils, large standard and custom air handling systems, centrifugal pumps, feed screws, hardened steel rolls, and heat transfer rolls. Ampco’s products are used in the construction, power generation, refrigeration, chemical processing, marine defense, and steel industries.
  • Northwest Pipe Company (NASDAQ:NWPX): The shares closed at $20.85, down $1.94, or 8.51%, on the day. Its market capitalization is $194.84 million. About the company: Northwest Pipe Company manufactures and markets welded steel pipe. The Company makes large diameter, high pressure steel pipe products used for water transmission. Northwest Pipe also makes smaller diameter, electric resistance welded pipe for a wide range of construction, energy, agricultural, industrial, and mechanical applications.
  • PMFG Inc (NASDAQ:PMFG): The shares closed at $15.41, down $1.37, or 8.16%, on the day. Its market capitalization is $272.40 million. About the company: PMFG Inc. is a provider of custom engineered systems and products designed to help ensure that the delive! ry of en ergy is safe, efficient and clean. The Company primarily serves the markets for power generation, natural gas infrastructure and petrochemical processing.
  • M/I Homes, Inc. (NYSE:MHO): The shares closed at $6.06, down $0.52, or 7.9%, on the day. Its market capitalization is $113.40 million. About the company: M/I Homes, Inc. builds single-family homes that are marketed and sold under the M/I Homes and Showcase Homes trade names. M/I Homes has homebuilding operations in Ohio, Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland.
  • AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO): The shares closed at $15.90, down $1.34, or 7.77%, on the day. Its market capitalization is $1.47 billion. About the company: AGCO Corporation manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment throughout the world. The Company sells a range of agricultural equipment and related replacement parts, including tractors, combines, hay tools, sprayers, and forage equipment. AGCO markets its products under a variety of brand names, including Massey Ferguson, AGCO, Tye, GLEANER, and Hesston.

Adobe Systems' CEO Discusses Q3 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Executives

Mike Saviage - Former Vice President of Investor Relations

Mark Garrett - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Shantanu Narayen - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director

Analysts

Brent Thill - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Adam H. Holt - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Mark L. Moerdler - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., Inc., Research Division

Daniel T. Cummins - ThinkEquity LLC, Research Division

Michael J. Olson - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Steven M. Ashley - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division

Brad A. Zelnick - Macquarie Research

Chad Bartley - Pacific Crest Securities, Inc., Research Division

Kenneth Wong

David M. Hilal - FBR Capital Markets & Co., Research Division

Ross MacMillan - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division

Jay Vleeschhouwer - Griffin Securities, Inc., Research Division

4-Star Stocks Poised to Pop: Canon

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, Japanese office electronics manufacturer Canon (NYSE: CAJ  ) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Canon's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Canon facts

Headquarters (Founded) Tokyo (1937)
Market Cap $51.8 billion
Industry Office electronics
Trailing-12-Month Revenue $47.5 billion
Management Chairman/CEO Fujio Mitarai
CFO T. Tanaka
Return on Equity (Average, Past 3 Years) 7%
Cash/Debt $11.1 billion / $218 million
Dividend Yield 3.7%
Competitors Dell (Nasdaq: DELL  )
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  )
Xerox (NYSE: XRX  )

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 96% of the 494 members who have rated Canon believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bulls include abwell and All-Star Staka, who is ranked in the top 2% of our community.

Just last month, abwell touched on a few of the factors working in Canon's favor: "It will outperform because Canon has just made a string of positive business announcem! ents suc h as a new must-have professional camera, a new line of printers along with a partnership with the PIXMA printing cloud, and a new motion pictures department."

Currently, Canon even boasts a rather comforting debt-to-equity of less than 1%. That's substantially lower than that of office equipment competitors like Dell (95%), HP (66%), and Xerox (69%).

CAPS All-Star Staka elaborates on Canon's pros and cons:

Positive:
- Blue chip with good dividend and [little debt]
- High tech, participates and leads in many hot trends
- Manufacturing in China, research in Japan -> strong Yen no disadvantage

Negative:
- Cyclical stock, not recession proof

What do you think about Canon, or any other stock for that matter? If you want to retire rich, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Owning exceptional stocks is a surefire way to secure your financial future, and on Motley Fool CAPS, thousands of investors are working every day to find them. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

This Week's 5 Dumbest Stock Moves

Stupidity is contagious. It gets us all from time to time. Even respectable companies can catch it. As I do every week, let's take a look at five dumb financial events this week that may make your head spin.

1. Not flicks
Just when you thought that Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX  ) couldn't sink any lower, it finds a way to squeeze out a few more sequels to this real-world horror franchise.

Netflix shocked investors by forecasting that it will lose both DVD and streaming subscribers during the current quarter. It's also now bracing investors to expect deficits early next year, as the costs of expanding into Ireland and the United Kingdom won't be enough to offset profitability closer to home.

Gee, expanding into 44 countries over the past 13 months hasn't forced profitability to take a holiday. Shouldn't the recent price hike make Netflix more profitable? If this keeps going, Netflix shares may be as valuable as Qwikster stock!

2. Amazon's fired up holidays
Netflix isn't the only former dot-com darling shocking investors with fears of short-lived deficits.

Amazon.com's (Nasdaq: AMZN  ) guidance for the current quarter calls for operating profits to clock in between a deficit of $200 million to a profit of $250 million.

Amazon potentially posting a loss during the seasonally potent holidays? That is so 1997.

There's a good reason for the red ink. Amazon is selling Kindles for as little as $79 and its new Kindle Fire tablet hits the market next month at $199. We don't know how profitable these items are for Amazon, though hinting at an operating deficit can't be too encouraging in assuming what the margins on these gadgets are.

At least Amazon can point to the future. Selling millions of Kindle Fire tablets and Kindle e-readers at cutthroat prices this quarter should be the catalyst for a ton of ! high-mar gin digital purchases in the future. Amazon has the right long-term view, though the whiff of an operating loss is an unwelcome surprise.

3. This fizzy drink stock has gone flat
Shares of SodaStream (Nasdaq: SODA  ) fell 8% Wednesday, after CNBC's Herb Greenberg played up Primo Water's (Nasdaq: PRMW  ) Flavorstation as a potential threat to SodaStream's home carbonation system.

Really?

There's no material news here. Bottled water distributor Primo bought Flavorstation parent Omnifrio seven months ago. The system has been a dud in the past, only getting as far as SkyMall in terms of visibility.

Primo Water will help. It has relationships with grocery stores where it offers exchangeable three- and five-gallon bottles of water. Logically, one might think that it can embrace that model to offer its carbonator refills the same way, but just wait until the supermarkets get an earful from the soda giants that dominate an entire aisle of the store.

Either way, we still don't have an official release date. There are zero distributors. The website's been up since last week. The news has been out since March. There's nothing wrong in reacting to news on CNBC, but investors need to learn to filter out the non-news events.

4. From red mailers to red boxes
Didn't Coinstar (Nasdaq: CSTR  ) learn a thing from Netflix's price hike? The company behind the disc-spewing Redbox kiosks revealed last night that it's boosting its rates. Nightly DVD rentals will now climb 20% to $1.20 starting Monday.

Two dimes may not seem like a lot of money, but keep in mind that Netflix's unlimited DVD plans actually became $2 cheaper when it began charging for streaming. Why move from the popular "dollar menu" pricing?

Customers will also question why they're paying more. Coinstar's rev! enue and earnings from continuing operations climbed 23% and 73%, respectively, in its latest quarter. In other words, margins are already expanding under the current rate.

5. Hack a Shack
RadioShack (NYSE: RSH  ) is doubling its dividend. The small-box consumer electronics specialist will pay a $0.50 a share annual dividend and then move to quarterly installments of $0.125 a share every three months.

Payout hikes rarely make this weekly listing of dumb news, but RadioShack's new 4.2% yield isn't as good as it looks.

RadioShack posted an adjusted profit of $0.15 a share in its latest quarter, well short of the $0.38 a share that analysts were expecting. The sweetened distributions are merely a ploy to distract investors. RadioShack may be pumped about its mobile prospects, but how much longer can these meaty dividends continue if earnings continue to go the wrong way?

If you want to track these companies to make sure that they don't make another dumb mistake soon, consider adding them to My Watchlist.

  • Add SodaStream?International to My Watchlist.
  • Add RadioShack to My Watchlist.
  • Add Primo?Water to My Watchlist.
  • Add Netflix to My Watchlist.
  • Add Coinstar to My Watchlist.
  • Add Amazon.com to My Watchlist.

5 ETFs to Watch This Week

Here are five ETFs to watch this week.

Industrial Select Sector SPDR(XLI)

The industrials have run into trouble the past few months as investors have begun to question the strength of the global economy. Since its July breakdown, shares of XLI have struggled to recover lost ground, as the fund has jockeyed back and forth along a generally sideways path.

During the middle and latter half of the week, investors can expect to uncover important clues regarding the current state and future prospects for this sector. Sprinkled within the busy earnings calendar are names including United Technologies(UTX), General Electric(GE), Honeywell(HON) and Union Pacific(UNP). All of these firms are among XLI's top holdings.

Fans of the transportation sector will want to keep close watch on this week's earnings. Aside from UNP, fellow railroad goliaths including CSX(CSX) and Kansas City Southern(KSU) will be on tap. Southwest Airlines(LUV) will also report. Investors looking for dedicated exposure to the transportation sector can turn to the iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund(IYT).

iShares Dow Jones U.S. Telecommunications Sector Index Fund(IYZ)

Although only two of IYZ's top holdings are up for earnings this week, the respective performances from AT&T(T) and Verizon Communications(VZ) (VZ) will have heavily influence the fund's action.

Telecommunication ETFs like IYZ are designed to provide investors with expansive exposure to t! his mark et segment. However given the dominance of AT&T and Verizon, many of these products dedicate the lion's share of their portfolio to these two companies. In the case of IYZ, nearly one-third of the fund's portfolio is dominated by the two companies.

IYZ will be interesting to watch as these two telecom goliaths report their quarterly results. Investors looking to get in on the action need to be cautious. In order to protect against the risks associated with a top-heavy product like IYZ, exposure must be kept small and focused.

iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Sector Index Fund(IYW)

Google's strong earnings performance set the stage for what could be an impressive showing from the technology sector over the next few weeks. In the days ahead, investors will have their sights set on companies such as Apple(AAPL), Intel(INTC), EMC(EMC), and Microsoft(MSFT) as they prepare to report their own earnings numbers and outlooks. International Business Machines(IBM) will kick off this week's tech earnings today.

In recent pieces, I have directed investor attention towards subsector products like the iShares S&P North America Technology Software Index Fund(IGV) and the First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund(FDN) as being attractive ways to target specific aspects of the tech sector. While these products remain attractive, those looking for a way to cast a wide net over the sector may want to consider looking to the IYW.

iShares Dow Jones U.S. Financial Services Index Fund(IYG)

Whereas Google's earnings numbers provided a dose of optimism, banking giant JPMo! rgan (JPM) reminded investors the markets are still battling against hurdles. Despite beating analyst expectations, the firm noted that its income saw a 4% dip, pressured by ongoing global market turmoil.

Fitch did little to ignite confidence following JPMorgan's disappointing quarterly report. Last week, the company placed a collection of U.S. and European banks on review for a possible downgrade.

This week, investors will uncover additional clues regarding the state of the U.S. financial system as companies such as Citigroup(C), Wells Fargo(WFC), Bank of America(BAC) and Goldman Sachs(GS) release their earnings. While these earnings are interesting to watch, I would encourage conservative investors to stick to the sidelines.

iShares MSCI Thailand Investable Market Index Fund(THD)

The first half of October have been promising for Thailand's markets, as indicated by THD's impressive multi-week bounce off of its September lows. While this run-up may be alluring, conservative investors may want to hold off before jumping in.

Analysts have been watching Thailand closely as the nation takes steps to defend against rising flood waters brought on by heavy monsoon season rains. Government officials have attempted to determine the economic impact this natural phenomenon could have on the Thai economy. The nation's Deputy Prime Minister warned last week that the damage could slash GDP growth by 0.6% to 0.9%.

This Company Just Tripled Its Dividend

In a recent article, I touched on several of the opportunities available to income investors in the energy industry. It just takes knowing where to look. 

You see, we recently discovered that more than half of the 21 best income stocks of the past decade come from the energy sector. But since most of the energy investments on that list are not household names, it occurred to me that many investors may not even know the sort of opportunities that are waiting out there.

So in the weeks and months ahead, I'll be bringing you some more insight on my favorite "energy+income" investments that you may not be aware of.

 

For example, one of my top-rated stocks for subscribers to my Energy & Income advisory is a best-in-class player from a lesser-known energy niche -- oil refineries.

The company enjoys distinct advantages that have enabled it to quadruple its profits and triple its dividend in the past year, even while some of its competitors are closing up shop.

What's been driving the company's profits is something called a "crack spread." Put simply, the crack spread is the difference between what the refinery paid to get raw oil and the money it will be paid for its refined product. In short, the greater the margin... the greater the refinery's profit.

Refiners on the Gulf Coast and East Coast pay around $115 per barrel for Brent crude, most of which is imported from West Africa, the U.K., Russia, and Venezuela. 

But Valero (NYSE: VLO), the nation's largest independent refiner, is fortunate enough to have access to cheaper oil from the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas -- and has been paying roughly $20 less per barrel

That gives the company a big edge over its competitors who have to use more expensive crude from overseas. As a result, Valero's bottom line has exploded on its! increas ed profit margins.

For the third quarter ended September 30th, Valero reported net income of $1.2 billion, or $2.11 per share. That's a powerful 297% increase from the $303 million earned this time last year -- almost quadruple the amount of profit.

Higher throughput volumes do deserve some of the credit. With demand for refined products on the rise, the company is running 2.6 million barrels through its refineries every day -- 389,000 barrels more per day compared to the third quarter of 2010. 

But more important are the fatter crack spread margins that are really juicing the bottom line. 

Twelve months ago, Valero was pocketing $8.13 in gross profit for every barrel of refined product it shipped. But the spread between the costs of raw materials coming in and the sales price of finished products going out has widened dramatically. So as of mid-November, that margin had soared to $13.24 per barrel.

Subtract out operating expenses, and Valero is earning a net profit of $8.16 per barrel -- up from just $2.92 a year ago. 

While others are abandoning their refining operations -- like Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) -- or spinning them off as separate companies to reduce the drag on their bottom lines -- like ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) -- Valero has gone on a shopping spree, absorbing properties in Louisiana and the U.K. at discounted prices.

And in a bold vote of confidence for expansion projects slated to come online in 2012, Valero's board just tripled the firm's quarterly dividend.

Valero now pays a $0.15 dividend -- up from $0.05 earlier this year -- for a 3% yield. I know that on the surface a 3% yield is not going to entice most income investors, but by raising its dividend by a factor of three, Valero is signaling its commitment to rewarding investors. 

On top of that, there's no reason this industry leader should be trading at just 5.1 times earnings and for just 70% of its book value. Sooner or later, the market wil! l have t o recognize Valero's accomplishments and re-price the stock accordingly.

Jobs Are the Least of Our Worries

The national employment picture is scary enough, but it portends even worse news for the general economy, notes John Mauldin of Outside the Box.

With seven kids, jobs have been on my mind of late. It has not been easy for some of them.

It helps me to remember what it was like to be in my 20s in the 70s, and really struggle to pay the rent and put food on the table for a family. Savings? Hah!

And while I have been able to help the kids here and there, back then there was no one to help me. More than a few nights, I woke up with a knot in my stomach, wondering whether to pay rent or make payroll. College did not prepare me for the "joys" of being an entrepreneur.

Interest rates were 18%…if you could even find a bank in Texas to lend on hard receivables. Unemployment was north of 8% and sometimes 10%. The Japanese were beating our brains out.

It was the Carter malaise years. All my friends were struggling as well, so it seemed normal. Kind of like now.

And I know I have written this before, but it bears repeating. The correct answer then, as it is today, to the question, "Where will the jobs come from?" was "I don’t know, but they will." That is what free markets and entrepreneurs do: they create jobs where none existed, given the chance.

And that’s how it looks today. Last week’s ISM and jobs reports augur poorly for employment in the coming months. Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception writes this week:

"Economists miss the start of recessions for two reasons:

  1. they focus on coincident-to-lagging data
  2. they use data series that are heavily revised, rendering them useless in real time.

"For example, most mainstream economists did not recognize the beginning of the last recession that began in December 2007 until mid-2008. Leading indicators had plunged, yet coincident and lagging! data co ntinued to be positive.

"However, once the data for non-farm payrolls and GDP were revised, the loss of employment and the loss of economic output were much greater than had originally been estimated. In all likelihood, we are seeing a similar dynamic play out today.

"All of our leading indicators have been pointing down since early spring. Now many unrevised short leading indicators are pointing towards weakness in employment, output, and asset prices. The GDP-weighted employment reading for ISM services and manufacturing is now clearly below 50. The last times this happened were before the 2001 recession and before the 2008 recession."

You can’t read any serious economic analysis of late that does not talk about jobs, whether in Europe or the US or Asia. And not a lot of it is pretty.

Politicians offer "plans" for jobs, most of which go to great lengths to illustrate the sympathy they have for people out of work, but without offering any real ideas on how to create meaningful, lasting jobs. Some are actually destructive of jobs, far from creating any (these are of the "I’m from the government and I’m here to help" variety).

How are jobs created? What policies should governments adopt to help create jobs? How do we get back to full employment in the US in a Muddle Through economy that needs at least 125,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth? (We learned that in October, new employment was just 80,000.)

  • Beware of Oil for Income
  • Groupon’s Raw Deal for Main Street
  • Mixed Outlook for Fourth Quarter

Is Family Dollar the Right Stock to Retire With?

Now more than ever, a comfortable retirement depends on secure, stable investments. Unfortunately, the right stocks for retirement won't just fall into your lap. In this series, I look at 10 measures to show what makes a great retirement-oriented stock.

With fears of a double-dip recession, investors are interested in stocks that will protect and preserve their capital. Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO  ) did a good job of doing that in the last slowdown, but does it have what it takes this time around? Below, we'll take a look at how Family Dollar does on our 10-point scale.

The right stocks for retirees
With decades to go before you need to tap your investments, you can take greater risks, weighing the chance of big losses against the potential for mind-blowing returns. But as retirement approaches, you no longer have the luxury of waiting out a downturn.

Sure, you still want good returns, but you also need to manage your risk and protect yourself against bear markets, which can maul your finances at the worst possible time. The right stocks combine both of these elements in a single investment.

When scrutinizing a stock, retirees should look for:

  • Size. Most retirees would rather not take a flyer on unproven businesses. Bigger companies may lack their smaller counterparts' growth potential, but they do offer greater security.
  • Consistency. While many investors look for fast-growing companies, conservative investors want to see steady, consistent gains in revenue, free cash flow, and other key metrics. Slow growth won't make headlines, but it will help prevent the kind of ugly surprises that suddenly torpedo a stock's share price.
  • Stock stability. Conservative retirement investors prefer investments that move less dramatically than typical stocks, and they particularly want to avoid big losses. These investments will give up so! me gains during bull markets, but they won't fall as far or as fast during bear markets. Beta measures volatility, but we also want a track record of solid performance as well.
  • Valuation. No one can afford to pay too much for a stock, even if its prospects are good. Using normalized earnings multiples helps smooth out one-time effects, giving you a longer-term context.
  • Dividends. Most of all, retirees look for stocks that can provide income through dividends. Retirees want healthy payouts now and consistent dividend growth over time -- as long as it doesn't jeopardize the company's financial health.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Family Dollar.

?

Factor

What We Want to See

Actual

Pass or Fail?

Size Market cap > $10 billion $6.45 billion Fail
Consistency Revenue growth > 0% in at least four of past five years 5 years Pass
? Free cash flow growth > 0% in at least four of past five years 4 years Pass
Stock stability Beta < 0.9 0.22 Pass
? Worst loss in past five years no greater than 20% (33.3%) Fail
Valuation Normalized P/E < 18 17.32 Pass
Dividends Current yield > 2% 1.3% Fail
? 5-year dividend growth > 10% 11.1% Pass
Streak of dividend increases >= 10 years 35 years Pass
? Payout ratio < 75% 21.5% Pass
? ? ? ?
? Total score ? 7 out of 10

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes.

With seven points, Family Dollar gives conservative investors most of the attractive traits they like in a stock. Although the company is small, it has proven its ability to stand up in tough times, and dividend growth is part of its appeal despite a current yield that leaves something to be desired.

During the recession, companies like Family Dollar, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT  ) , and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) offered a deep-value proposition that resonated with cash-strapped consumers. In particular, Family Dollar's stock rose by more than 20% in 2008, as customers discovered the even-bigger bargains that Family Dollar and peers Dollar Tree (Nasdaq: DLTR  ) and 99 Cents Only (NYSE: NDN  ) had.

You'd expect that after the recession ended, Family Dollar might suffer. But with fears that we're entering yet another bear market, investors are gravitating toward defensive stocks again. And despite a huge drop in free cash flow, the stock has advanced strongly this year -- although some of those gains likely came from takeover speculation that has now ended.

For retirees and other conservative investors considering the stock, the problem is that discounts can only go so far before they start eating into profits. High freight and fuel costs have forced the company to cut margins. But with a 35-year history of stea! dily rai sing dividends and a valuation that still isn't particularly expensive, Family Dollar is worth a look for your retirement portfolio.

Keep searching
Finding exactly the right stock to retire with is a tough task, but it's not impossible. Searching for the best candidates will help improve your investing skills, and teach you how to separate the right stocks from the risky ones.

Add Family Dollar to My Watchlist, which will aggregate our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

If you want to retire rich, you need to be confident that you've got the basics of your investment strategy down pat. See if you're on track by following the 13 Steps to Investing Foolishly.

RENN: Pac Crest Cuts To Hold; Missing Its IPO Promise

Shares of Renren (RENN), known as the “Facebook of China,” are down 28 cents, or 7%, at $3.70 after Pacific Crest’s Evan Wilson today cut his rating on the stock to Sector Perform from Outperform, writing that the company has “so far not lived up to its pre-IPO promises.”

Pacific Crest was one of the company’s underwriters for that IPO in May, when Renren went public at $14 a share. He picked up formal coverage of the name in June. Wilson writes that he had been prevented from commenting on the disappointing Q3 results reported on November 10th. Now that he’s free of his restrictions, he’s cutting estimates drastically for this year and next.

Wilson now sees revenue of $117.7 million and a net loss of 1 cent a share this year, down from a prior view of $121.5 million and a penny profit. For 2012, he now sees $170 million and a five-cent loss per share, down from $200 million and a penny loss.

The company’s competition from other internet startups, including Sina (SINA), which he also rates Sector Perform, and Hong Kong’s Tencent Holdings (700HK), which he rates Outperform, are leading to “margin-busting investments,” writes Wilson, which is not what the company’s road show before the offering suggested.

We had been comfortable with Renren��s spending. Its pursuit of Nuomi and the early stage of the social networking market was a certain guarantee that it would have to spend to remain competitive. This is not a surprise. However, the level of investment is proving to be much greater than management predicted less than a year ago, and the sales that it expects to generate from the investment are now much less.?Much of this spending is clearly in response to the ��great homogenization�� of social networks in China that we have written about previously. The largest Chinese social networks ha! ve all c hanged direction toward the same idea: to become a Face- book/Tumblr hybrid with Twitter functionality. The list includes Tencent��s Pengyou.com and Qzone, SINA��s Weibo, and Renren. Each network comes from different functional origins (except maybe Pengyou and Renren), but the end products are all becoming strikingly similar.?What this means is that each network now appears to have less and less product diffe- rentiation.

Canadian values: 4 Ben Graham buys


J. Royden WardWe screened our Benjamin Graham database to ?nd Canadian companies with rapidly growing earnings and strong balance sheets.

We believe many outstanding buying opportunities exist among undervalued Canadian stocks. We believe the following four offer excellent appreciation potential during the next six to 12 month.

Canada is an excellent place to invest right now because the economy is growing, banks are solid and the national debt is under control.

Canadian banks were not allowed to sell risky loans or buy unsafe investments. The housing market in Canada remains solid, economic growth continues to climb, and the nation��s debt remains low.

Canadian National Railway (CNI) operates Canada��s largest railroad system covering Canada from east to west and the central U.S. south to the Gulf of Mexico.

Canadian National is the most ef?cient rail operator in North America with high pro?ts and low costs.

The company hauls a wide variety of goods including forest products, intermodal shipping containers, farm products, petroleum and chemicals.
It��s $1.7 billion capital improvement program to expand port facilities, add track, and purchase freight cars and fuel-ef?cient locomotives will help EPS to roll along at a good clip.

CNI currently trades at just 12.1 times forward 12-month earnings per share, with a dividend yield of 2.0%. CNI is a solid long term investment.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU), founded in 1998 in Vancouver, British Columbia, makes long-lasting athletic clothing for running, dancing, practicing yoga and other active endeavors.

The company sells women��s pants, shorts, tops and jackets in 138 company-owned and four franchised stores in Canada, the U.S., Australia and Hong Kong.

Th! e compan y will likely increase sales and earnings by 19% during the next 12 months. The stock, as measured by P/E, is expensive at 38.6 times our forward EPS estimate of 1.26, but far less than its 50.0 times EPS of a few months ago.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT) is a leading producer of potash, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

Critical demand for food in places like China and Africa will require more and more fertilizer to maximize crop production.

The company is spending $7.5 billion to enlarge its facilities, which will increase its fertilizer production more than 50% by 2015.

Larger global grain crops are boosting fertilizer demand, evidenced by Potash��s sales rise of 54% and EPS jump of 85% during the past 12-month period.

We expect strong sales and EPS growth in 2011 and 2012 as well. POT shares sell at a reasonable 11.3 times forward 12-month EPS.

Silver Wheaton (SLW), based in British Columbia, purchases silver from mines in Greece, Mexico, Peru and Sweden.

The company does not own or operate any silver mines, but purchases silver produced as a by-product of gold mining companies.

Silver Wheaton pays less than $4.00 per ounce of silver from gold miners such as Barrick Gold. Its contracts are immensely pro?table and will produce rapid revenue and earnings growth well into the future.

The price of silver has dropped signi?cantly during the past several weeks, but we expect higher prices in 2012. The recent decline in the stock price offers an excellent buying opportunity. ?


A Hidden Reason NVIDIA's Earnings Are Outstanding

It takes money to make money. Most investors know that, but with business media so focused on the "how much," very few investors bother to ask, "How fast?"

When judging a company's prospects, how quickly it turns cash outflows into cash inflows can be just as important as how much profit it's booking in the accounting fantasy world we call "earnings." This is one of the first metrics I check when I'm hunting for the market's best stocks. Today, we'll see how it applies to NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA  ) .

Let's break this down
In this series, we measure how swiftly a company turns cash into goods or services and back into cash. We'll use a quick, relatively foolproof tool known as the cash conversion cycle, or CCC for short.

Why does the CCC matter? The less time it takes a firm to convert outgoing cash into incoming cash, the more powerful and flexible its profit engine is. The less money tied up in inventory and accounts receivable, the more available to grow the company, pay investors, or both.

To calculate the cash conversion cycle, add days inventory outstanding to days sales outstanding, then subtract days payable outstanding. Like golf, the lower your score here, the better.

Here's the CCC for NVIDIA, alongside the comparable figures from a few competitors and peers.

!

Company

TTM Revenue

TTM CCC

?NVIDIA $3,931 ?40
?ARM Holdings (Nasdaq: ARMH  ) $732 ?(4)
?Marvell Technology Group (Nasdaq: MRVL  ) $3, 560 ?29
?Intel (Nasdaq: INTC  ) $51,569 ?49

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. TTM = trailing 12 months.

For younger, fast-growth companies, the CCC can give you valuable insight into the sustainability of that growth. A company that's taking longer to make cash may need to tap financing to keep its momentum. For older, mature companies, the CCC can tell you how well the company is managed. Firms that begin to lose control of the CCC may be losing their clout with their suppliers (who might be demanding stricter payment terms) and customers (who might be demanding more generous terms). This can sometimes be an important signal of future distress -- one most investors are likely to miss.

While I find peer comparisons useful, I'm most interested in comparing a company's CCC to its prior performance. Here's where I believe all investors need to become trend-watchers. Sure, there may be legitimate reasons for an increase in the CCC, but all things being equal, I want to see this number stay steady or move downward over time.

anImage

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = . TTM = trailing 12 months.

Because of the seasonality in some businesses, the CCC for the TTM period may not be strictly comparable to the fiscal-year periods shown in the chart. Even the steadiest-looking businesses on an annual basis will experience some quarterly fluctuations in the CCC. To get an understanding of th! e usual ebb and flow at NVIDIA, consult the quarterly period chart below.

anImage

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

On a 12-month basis, the trend at NVIDIA looks very good. At 39.9 days, it is 18.1 days better than the five-year average of 58. days. The biggest contributor to that improvement was DSO, which improved 10.4 days compared to the five-year average. That was partially offset by a 0.2-day increase in DIO.

Considering the numbers on a quarterly basis, the CCC trend at NVIDIA looks good. At 35.6 days, it is 11.3 days better than the average of the past eight quarters. With both 12-month and quarterly CCC running better than average, NVIDIA gets high marks in this cash-conversion checkup.

Though the CCC can take a little work to calculate, it's definitely worth watching every quarter. You'll be better informed about potential problems, and you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

To stay on top of the CCC for your favorite companies, just use the following handy links to add companies to your free watchlist.

  • Add NVIDIA to My Watchlist.
  • Add ARM Holdings to My Watchlist.
  • Add Marvell Technology Group to My Watchlist.
  • Add Intel to My Watchlist.

International growth is the key

Have you chosen sides yet in the Great Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) Debate of 2011? Do you hail CEO Reed Hastings as a far-seeing prophet of online video? Or are you appalled at the madness that led one of the web’s biggest successes to declare that the customer is not always right?

Or are you, like me, shaking your head at the whole stupid debate? The simple truth is that Netflix is pinning its future on streaming media, and doing what it has to do to get there. In the process, it’s botching the transition from DVD-by-mail to pure streaming in a way that will cause it headaches for some time.

Both views have some merit, but both are overreacting. So how do investors respond? Trading strategies in Netflix used to be so simple. You either thought it would be crushed under the wheels of a traditional giant like Blockbuster, or you believed it would prove
naysayers wrong. And in that halcyon past, the longer a bull stayed long in Netflix, the more that bull won.

When all the emotion of the present moment passes, there will be several factors suggesting the company is making the hard choices necessary for its survival, and also several clear things that it screwed up. Here are a few of each:

Netflix is Being Dumb

1. A search too far. When Hastings made his murky and vilified defense of the move to separate DVDs by mail and streaming video, someone asked in the comments whether he’d need to search twice for the same movie, Hastings responded “ouch” – as in, yes, you’re right. To me, that means “we didn’t think this through right” (unlikely) or “we know and just don’t care” (likely).

2. The branding fail. Qwikster, the new name for Netflix��s DVD business, is not only easily confused with Quickster (a collapsible Lacrosse net) and Qwixtar (an Amway business), it’s slang! for a g uy who can get women in bed quickly. That one’s going down in the annals of bad branding.

Netflix Is Being Smart

1. Nobody outside the U.S. is complaining. This is the thing the critics don��t want to say. If millions of U.S. subscribers fall from Qwikster, that’s great news for the neighborhood video store. But it’s not bad news for Netflix, if angering tens of millions of U.S. subscribers is offset by the addition of a hundred million in Latin America, Europe and Asia. In that case, Qwikster will be an unsightly footnote in the company’s history.

2. The power of scale. Start the countdown until Qwikster is sold off. There’s simply no more growth in it, and without new subscribers Netflix has no leverage in pricing with the big studios. But by getting subscribers in other countries before rivals do, Netflix can scale up its subscriber base into a juggernaut that would make even the most clueless studio executive sit down at the bargaining table. Qwikster may be Netflix’s childhood, but the company is lurching into adulthood and not looking back.

What does all this add up to for investors? Netflix has always had a gift for seeing, several years ahead of anyone else, where the video-rental industry is heading. Until now, it’s managed to pursue that vision by giving consumers what they want. Now, it’s pursuing its vision by denying consumers (U.S. consumers, at least) what they want.

That means Netflix is going to be rather volatile for a while: a risky investment in the short term. It’s likely to fall further as U.S. cancellations pull down revenue and licensing fees push up costs. But once streaming subscriptions start to accelerate internationally, it will surprise the bears and rebound sharply.

No longer is investing in Netflix simply a matter of going long and watching it prove the naysayers wrong. Like everything else in the stock market these days, investing in! Netflix is a matter of shrewd timing.

The Best Stocks To Own When The Euro Nightmare Ends

As economists grapple with the ongoing global crises, they're asking themselves a pair of important questions. First, why have European policies let problems fester for so long? And second, whatever happened to the notion that trade and budget deficits impact currency values? The answers to these two questions are interrelated, and they will have a huge impact on your portfolio in coming years.


The Greek blueprint
Let's tackle Greece first. Watching all of the parties angle for the best possible deal has been like viewing a slow-motion train wreck. German taxpayers hate the idea of perpetually subsidizing countries like Greece. European banks took a bold yet hated step by writing off the value of many Greek loans, and Greek citizens hate the idea of ever-increasing cuts in their social safety net. Nobody is happy, yet nobody is willing to acknowledge an unspoken reality: Simply put, Greece's economy will never be able to turn around while it is tied to the lofty euro. The banks, agreeing to a 50% haircut on their loans, didn't go far enough, as reflected by the fact that bond prices peg the likelihood of loan payback rates closer to 25%. And German policy makers are unwilling to admit that any benefit of being part of a currency union with weaker member states runs the risk of crippling its own economy. Germany's economy has just slipped into recession, and further crises could really tank its economy.

The solution is increasingly clear, even though it is simply bad politics to acknowledge it: Greece needs to move out of the house, re-institute a (much-cheaper) drachma as its currency, and focus on a turnaround that is based on rising exports and shrinking imports (which is what always happens when a currency is devalued).

Two Europes emerging

That's not the end of it. Instead, it's just the first step in a realization that there are two Europes: Northern Europe and Southern Europe. Greece is small potatoes compared with t! he much larger Italian and Spanish economies, but those countries' involvement in the broader European Union framework creates the same problem. Their economies will remain weak (or in recession) as long as they are tied to a too-strong currency that inhibits their export competiveness.

The need to cleave Northern Europe and Southern Europe will become even more apparent this winter as interest rates in places like Italy rise to levels that bring the economy to its knees. The recent rate rise for Italian bonds is a direct reflection of the doubts that Italy will grow its way out of the current mess.

So let's look at a world where weaker countries that are either unable or unwilling to comply with eurozone rules can leave the currency union while remaining in the EU (which is currently being discussed). As a reflection of their weak economies and trade flows, countries in Southern Europe would likely be tied to currencies that are weaker than the current euro. The converse is true in Northern Europe, where countries like Germany and France are so strong -- on a relative basis -- that their currency would be closer in value to the even stronger Swiss franc.

What does this mean for American companies and investors? Well, a rising Northern European currency would be like manna from heaven. Industrial factories in places like Ohio or Wisconsin instantly become much more competitive against factories in Lyon, France or Stuttgart, Germany. The fact that the cost of doing business is rising in China only underscores the notion that U.S. manufacturing is about to undergo a renaissance. This report, put out by the Boston Consulting Group in August, spells out the case for a rising American industrial sector in the next few years better than anything I've come across. As an investor, it may be the single most important thing you read this year.

What should play out with the dollar -- and how you can profit
Back to my earlier point about trade flows and the dollar.! .. Econo mic theory holds that whenever a country runs a trade deficit, its currency has to weaken as funds are exchanged to purchase imported goods. The United States has run a negative trade balance of at least $350 billion for more than a decade.


?
Budget deficits are yet another factor in weakening a currency as printing presses crank up to meet budgetary shortfalls. That's precisely what started happening in the last decade. Measured against a basket of currencies (with 1998 representing a baseline of 100), the dollar slid from 130 in 2002 to just 95 in 2008.

Then the economic crisis set in, pushing that measure back up above 110. Since then, the dollar has weakened again, most notably against the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar and the Brazilian real.


?
The dollar hasn't weakened against the euro yet, but it will if the European crisis resolves as I mentioned earlier. Simply put, in terms of trade flows, a U.S. currency should be 15% to 20% weaker against a more focused French/German-based currency.

Action to Take -->
So what does this mean for investors? It means it's time to stop writing off the U.S. industrial sector. It's hard to spot on a daily basis, but U.S.-based businesses are slowly gaining a pricing advantage against Japanese, Australian and Brazilian rivals, and they will soon be able to make similar claims against European rivals.

Check out the SPDR Industrials ETF (NYSE: XLI), which holds shares of United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), while carrying a low 0.2% expense ratio. The Vanguard Industrials ETF (NYSE: VIS) provides similar exposure. And don't forget about the American farmer. Agricultural exports are already booming, and a weaker dollar should help power them even higher. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO), which owns shares of companies like Monsanto (NYSE: MON), P! otash (N YSE:POT) and Deere (NYSE: DE), has great exposure to the weak dollar thesis.


-- David Sterman

Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.{$end}

Defense Stock Has a Tactical Advantage

As technology continues to overtake human soldiers on the battlefield, this stock is best positioned for major profit, writes MoneyShow.com senior editor Igor Greenwald.

We’re living in contentious times. The United States is hunting enemies who would do it violent harm across hostile terrain all over the globe. Those enemies are seeking a cost-effective means to counter-attack a militarily superior civilization.

The power of social networks to fill the streets with crowds demanding change has unsettled every autocratic government...and many democratic ones. Europe is facing massive demonstrations and riots as austerity bites. Stateside, the streets and campuses are up for grabs as Occupy protesters defy orders to disband.

This can only mean one thing. Or rather, in short order, thousands of things—mostly airborne and increasingly self-directed, guarding, spying, pacifying, and inevitably terrorizing. 

The drones are coming in numbers now, to Afghanistan and to America. They could soon make fancier military hardware filled with troops a luxury no military can afford. They’re likely to patrol the skies above our cities and the streets below. They will help people see what authorities don’t wish known and allow police to eavesdrop without warrants.

And they will be cheap, for the information and the control they provide. People are expensive. Intelligence is expensive. Fuel is expensive. But energy storage is a rapidly improving field, and computing power has never been cheaper.

A distributed, networked drone force will be hard to kill and hard to defend against. It could also prove better practically and optically at dispersing peaceful protests than a phalanx of baton-swinging cops. Gas from above, spray from above, taze from above. Or snap a picture and send a summons to the address on the matching driver’s license, plausibly.

Lots of countries are now pursuing drone technology. But the proven le! ad in th e field, honed above Afghan battlefields and Pakistani villages, belongs to the US.

And one of the best portfolios of tactical airborne snoops and killers belongs to Aerovironment (AVAV), the California firm founded 40 years ago by a beloved aeronautical pioneer and mastermind of the Gossamer Albatross human-powered flight.

The company has come a long way from those innocent days—it's now the leading supplier of small drones to the Pentagon. It doesn’t make the Predator or the Reaper, but its Ravens spy on Somali militants.

The Switchblade, a highly portable explosive drone launched from a tube and guided to its target by an operator via a camera feed, has been successfully tested in Afghanistan, where it will be soon be deployed.

Aerovironment created a lot of buzz earlier this year with its Nano Hummingbird mini-drone. Last month, it launched the Qube surveillance drone for the law enforcement market.

The drone business has been growing by 30% annually, but that may not be sustainable as the industry matures. This year, Aerovironment is aiming for growth of 10% to 15%.

Its business is lumpy, and heavily dependent on the Defense Department. Exports account for just 7% of revenue, leaving plenty of room for improvement. The company is conservatively managed by a CEO who’s been at the helm for 20 years. Aerovironment has no debt, and its $188 million in cash accounts for more than a quarter of the $700 million market cap. Backing out the cash, the price/earnings ratio is 18 for the fiscal year ending in April.

The stock is up 18% since I mentioned it three months ago, but down 6% from October��s high, consolidating along its rising 20-day moving average.

Aerovironment’s toys aren’t cheap, and neither is the stock. But relative to anything with a pilot’s canopy or the cost of boots on the ground, its wares are a bargain. And the Pentagon is going to need all the good deals it can get in the years ahead.

Ae rovironment also has a promising sideline in the infrastructure for the charging of electric vehicles. But, for better or worse, the drones are its future, and ours.

This rally appears to be nothing more than short-covering

Buyers jumped into the market yesterday, taking back about one-third of last week��s losses. The reason given for the recovery was that was no new news had come from Europe or theUnited States. In other words, the stock market is so oriented to news that no news is good news. Imagine what would occur if good news was announced.

Whatever the cause of the rally, volume on the NYSE was just under 1.2 billion shares with advancers ahead of decliners by about 2-to-1 on both the Big Board and Nasdaq. For the period ending Sept. 15, the short interest rose 5.48%, which is the highest since March 31, 2009, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Short interest is the number of short-selling positions on the NYSE that have not been closed out. Whenever short interest rises, there is a high probability of a sudden short-covering rally, like yesterday. Most of the shorts are held by high-volume speculators who are easily frightened and cover in a frenzy.?

Dow Chart

Note this chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average with arrows in October 2008. A short-covering rally occurred on Oct. 13, following the two-week decline, and the Dow gained 937 points. But on Oct. 15, the Dow fell 734 points.

Bear markets are characterized by their extreme volatility. The big one-day rally of 937points turned out to be a fizzle. From the close of Oct. 13, 2008, to the ultimate low of March 6, 2009, the Dow gave up an additional 2,760 points.??

Trade of the Day Chart Key

Yesterday��s gain of 272 points appears to be nothing more than a short-covering rally following the breakdow! n from t he bearish flag. We could get a couple more days of buying before the bulls give up. They will most likely encounter resistance first at the flag��s former support line at 11,117 and then at the 11,313, the blue 50-day moving average.

The major trend is down. All rallies should be considered opportunities to either liquidate losers or sell short.

Are Shorts Watching This Number at Kulicke & Soffa Industries?

There's no foolproof way to know the future for Kulicke & Soffa Industries (Nasdaq: KLIC  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can also suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like Kulicke & Soffa Industries do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is Kulicke & Soffa Industries sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

anImage

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is! current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. As another reality check, it's reasonable to consider what a normal DSO figure might look like in this space.

Company

LFQ Revenue

DSO

?Kulicke & Soffa Industries $180 89
?Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM  ) $3,491 40
?Micron Technology (Nasdaq: MU  ) $2,140 49
?Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT  ) $2,182 70

Source: S&P Capital IQ. DSO calculated from average AR. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. LFQ = last fiscal quarter. Dollar figures in millions.

Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, so don't consider this the final word -- just a way to add some context to the numbers. But let's get back to our original question: Will Kulicke & Soffa Industries miss its numbers in the next quarter or two?

The numbers don't paint a clear picture. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, Kulicke &! ; Soffa Industries's year-over-year revenue shrank 30.4%, and its AR dropped 29.3%. That looks OK. End-of-quarter DSO increased 1.7% over the prior-year quarter. It was up 5.1% versus the prior quarter. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

What now?
I use this kind of analysis to figure out which investments I need to watch more closely as I hunt the market's best returns. However, some investors actively seek out companies on the wrong side of AR trends in order to sell them short, profiting when they eventually fall. Which way would you play this one? Let us know in the comments below, or keep up with the stocks mentioned in this article by tracking them in our free watchlist service, My Watchlist.

  • Add Kulicke & Soffa Industries to My Watchlist.
  • Add Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to My Watchlist.
  • Add Micron Technology to My Watchlist.
  • Add Applied Materials to My Watchlist.

The Reality Of The Market

What I love about the markets is that unlike most politicians, they don't lie.

Is reality finally beginning to settle into the markets?

Things aren't going to get better right away. The magnitude of the problem in Europe and Spain's failure today to sell �3.5 billion of notes, underscores just how fragile the Euro economic system is right now. Europe is a big market for US and Asian products. If Europe is weak, it can't help but spread to other parts of the world.

As an example, one only has to look at Citigroup (symbol C) to know that things are not good.

We do not expect things to get better any time soon. If you look at a chart of capitalism over the last 100 years, you get a sense of how these longer-term economic cycles work. It is going to take us years, not months, to get these economic problems worked out.

Every stock market in Europe is down for the year, in some cases in double digits. France is down 18% and the German DAX is down 13%. At the moment, the US indices are pretty much flat for the year with the exception of the DOW, which is up approximately 4%. With the volatility that we are seeing, this can change quite rapidly and we want to pay close attention to what our Trade Triangles are telling us.

Now, let's go to the charts and the video and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.

��������-
S&P 500 INDEX
��������-
OUR VIEW: Beginning to roll over?
Combined Strength of Trend Score = -55

The S&P 500 index continues to look somewhat heavy to us and we would view a close below $1240 as further evidence of weakness in this market. The key level to look for on a close-only basis is the $1218 level. With a Chart Analysis Score of -55 we continue to be stuck in a trading range. Intermediate traders should be on the sidelines waiting for a new Trade Triangle short signal. Long-term traders should either be in cash or continue to hold short positions in! this in dex.

See today's S&P 500 Video Here.
��������-
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
��������-
Suggested S&P 500 Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SPY) (Short SH)
2 x Leveraged ETF's: (Long SSO)(Short SDS)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.

��������-
IS PERSONAL MARKETCLUB COACHING RIGHT FOR YOU?
Free consultation. 877�C219�C1482
��������-
SILVER (SPOT)
��������-
OUR VIEW: Trading Range
Combined Strength of Trend Score = -55

No change in our comments. The spot silver market continues to be trapped in limbo and seems unable to move either higher or lower. That is reflected in the current market action, which is about unchanged for the week. This market remains in a broad trading range bound by $33.50 an ounce on the downside and $35.50 an ounce on the upside. With our Chart Analysis Score reading +55, we seen no clear-cut trend at the moment for this metal. Generally speaking, the major trend for silver continues to be negative based on our monthly Trade Triangle, and the weekly Trade Triangle remains in conflict. Long-term traders should continue to hold short positions in silver with appropriate stops.

See today's Silver Video Here.


��������-
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
��������-
Suggested SILVER Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SLV) (Short the ETF SLV)
Leveraged ET! F's: (Lo ng AGQ) (Short ZSL)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.

��������-
IS PERSONAL MARKETCLUB COACHING RIGHT FOR YOU?
Free consultation. 877�C219�C1482
��������-
GOLD (SPOT)
��������-
OUR VIEW: Resistance at $1,800
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +85

For the past ten days, the spot gold market has been moving sideways and is trapped in a trading range. For the moment, the $1800 level is proving to be a formidable resistance area for spot gold. Our Chart Analysis Score remains intact, with a +85 reading indicating that this market is in strong hands. Gold indicates to us to be concerned about what is happening in Europe and the financial markets. Long-term and intermediate-term trends remain positive for this precious metal. Intermediate and long-term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.

See today's Gold Video Here.
��������-
Monthly trade triangles for Long-term trends = Positive
weekly trade triangles for intermediate term trends = Positive
daily trade triangles for short-term trends = Negative
��������-
Suggested GOLD Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long GLD) (Short the ETF GLD)
Leveraged ETF's:(Long UGL) (Short GLL)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.

��������-
COPPER (DECEMBER)
��������-
OUR VIEW: Resistance at $3.60
Combined Strength of Trend Score = -75

The ! weekly T rade Triangle remains positive and we expect that this indicator will turn negative again. Copper generally reflects economic conditions, and as such is influenced by equity prices. With a Chart Analysis Score of -75 this metal could be emerging from its trading range into a full blown bear market. Generally speaking, the major trend for this metal continue to be negative while the intermediate trend is in conflict. Long-term traders should continue to hold short positions in copper with appropriate stops.

See today's Copper Video Here.
��������-
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
��������-
Suggested Copper Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long JJC)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.

��������-
CRUDE OIL (DECEMBER)
��������-
OUR VIEW: Resistance at $100 a barrel
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +70

A move in the crude oil market below yesterday's low of 97.19 will give this market a little more downside momentum. For the past three days, this market has flirted with the $100 a barrel resistance area. This is a formidable psychological barrier and we expect that it might be tested again. With a Chart Analysis Score of +70 this market may be trying to move out of its broad trading range.

The $100 level represents a 61.8% retracement of the entire down move starting from the highs seen earlier this year in April. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines. Long-term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.

See today's Crude Oil Video Here.
��������-
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
��������-
Suggested Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long USO) (Short the ETF USO)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long UCO) (Short DTO)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.

��������-
IS PERSONAL MARKETCLUB COACHING RIGHT FOR YOU?
Free consultation. 877�C219�C1482
��������-
DOLLAR INDEX
��������-
OUR VIEW: Near-term resistance at $78.50
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +90

We would view a close today over the $78 level as a positive for this index. With a +90 Chart Analysis Score, the dollar index is in a strong upward trend. We believe the $76.5 level will act as good support for this index. We are looking for a test of the $79.50 �C $80.00 levels. Our longer-term monthly Trade Triangle remains in a positive mode and our intermediate term weekly Trade Triangle turned positive last week. Long-term and intermediate term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate stops in place.

See today's Dollar Index Video Here.
��������-
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
��������-
Suggested DOLLAR INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long UUP) (Short UDN)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.

! �������� -
REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
��������-
OUR VIEW: Trading Range
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +70

In the very near term, this index has resistance starting at the $320 level and extending to $321. Like many of the other markets we are tracking, the CRB index is in a trading range with a Chart Analysis Score of +70. Resistance is evident at the $325 level and support comes in around the $315 area. Look for these levels to contain the market for the balance of the week. Our longer-term Trade Triangle remains negative for this index. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines. Long-Term traders should maintain short positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.

See today's REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Video Here.
����������
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
����������
Suggested REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long CRBQ) (Short the ETF CRBQ)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short CMD)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.

{$end}