Tilray Inc (TLRY) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

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Tilray Inc  (NASDAQ:TLRY)Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallMarch 18, 2019, 5:00 p.m. ET

Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Tilray's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) Later, we'll have a question-and-answer session. And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

Now it's my pleasure to turn to call to Katie Turner from IR.

Katie Turner -- Investor Relations

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us on Tilray's fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2018 earnings conference call. On today's call are Brendan Kennedy, President and Chief Executive Officer and Mark Castaneda, Chief Financial Officer.

Before we begin, please remember that during the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and involves risk and uncertainties that could differ materially from actual event and those described in these forward-looking statements. Please refer to Tilray's report filed from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission and its press release issued today for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

Finally, please note on today's call, management will refer to adjusted EBITDA,which is a non-GAAP financial measure. While the company believes adjusted EBITDA will provide useful information for investors, the presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to today's release for the reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to net loss, the most comparable measure prepared in accordance with GAAP.

Now I would like to turn the call over to Brendan.

Brendan Kennedy -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Katie. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On today's call, I will review the progress we have made on executing on our global growth strategy, including our recently announced strategic partnerships and acquisitions, and provide an update on our opportunities for long-term growth in the global medical and adult-use cannabis markets. Mark will then review our fourth quarter and full year 2018 financial results in more detail and discuss our long-term financial targets. After that, we will open up the call for your questions.

We are still in the early stages of the global transformation of $150 billion worldwide industry. We believe that over the long term, companies such as Tilray, with a portfolio of trusted brands powered by multinational supply chains, who win the market by earning, the confidence of patients, consumers, and governments around the world. Taking advantage of Tilray's best-in-class global platform, our team continues to focus on being a leader in defining the future of the industry, and delivering on the potential we see to be a multi-billion dollar consumer packaged goods company.

Focusing on our full year results, we are pleased with our growth and momentum. Revenue increased by 110% year-over-year to $43.1 million. In total, the kilogram equivalents sold increased both sequentially and on a year-over-year basis. We achieved this growth despite supply chain constraints across Canada, that have created pricing pressure for cannabis that meets our quality standards, forcing us to source from other suppliers.

Over the next 18 months, we believe there will be oversupply, just as we have seen in certain US states as operators in new legal markets race and government regulators catch up to find an equilibrium between supply and demand. To capitalize on global growth opportunities on both medical and adult use cannabis, Tilray will deploy capital in most promising markets, where we see the greatest potential to pursue multiple paths to grow.

The United States and European markets are orders of magnitude larger than Canada. So, while Canada will continue to be an important market for us, we expect to focus the majority of future investments on the US and Europe. We will not purchase or invest in what we believe to be overpriced supply assets in Canada, which we believe will erode in value in the medium to long term, as the market normalizes.

As we have communicated previously, our global growth strategy remains focused on six top-line performance drivers that we expect to generate strong returns, as the business continues to grow. First, increase our production capacity and inventory to serve the rapidly growing global market. Second, maintain a rigorous focus on quality as we scale. Third, partner with established distributors and retailers to scale distribution of our products further and faster. Fourth, for the differentiated portfolio brands and products that appeal to a diverse set of patients and consumers. Fifth, expand the addressable medical market by fostering mainstream acceptance with the medical community and governments. And finally six, pioneer the future of our industry by investing in innovation, research and development in clinical research. In line with this strategy, our recent strategic partnerships include a global alliance with Sandoz, a division of Novartis, one of the world's leading pharmaceutical companies.

Our original agreement was focused on Canada, and this new global deal legitimizes medical cannabis on a global scale and increases access for patients in need across the world. In the next year, we anticipate distributing medical cannabis to at least a half a dozen more countries globally through this partnership with Sandoz. We also formed a strategic partnership with AB InBev to research non-alcohol beverages containing THC and CBD. The 50/50 joint venture combined AB InBev's deep experience and beverages with our expertise in cannabis products. And each company intends to invest up to $50 million for a total of up to $100 million. We're pleased to report that we have appointed a CEO for the JV and our leveraging the research that Tilray has already performed for duration and time the onset on beverages.

Our revenue sharing agreement with Authentic Brands Group ABG is a long term partnership designed to leverage ABG's portfolio of more than 50 of the world's most iconic brands, as well as their extensive distribution network across North America. The partnership will initially focus on CBD products in the United States, and THC and CBD products in Canada, and we will expand globally as regulations permit.

The branding opportunities in the US and Europe around the retail and OTC consumer products are far more interesting than the branding opportunity today in Canada due to packaging and branding restrictions. Additionally, when we look at net new consumers at CBD and THC, distributors and retailers mark relationships with brands that they already know and trust, which is why we're so excited to partner with ABG.

Strategic mergers and acquisitions remain a core focus of our global growth strategy. Last month, we closed the acquisition of Manitoba Harvest, the world's largest hemp natural foods producer for approximately $317 million. Manitoba Harvest has nearly CAD100 million in gross revenues, distributes its products to more than 16,000 retail locations in the US and Canada, and is the leading hemp foods company, with seed-to-shelf capabilities, maintaining control over quality, production, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of its products.

The acquisition of Manitoba Harvest is Tilray access to relationships with farmers, who plant more than 30,000 acres of hemp, as well as some of the largest distributors in retailers across Canada and the US. We look forward to distributing hemp-derived CBD products across North America under the Manitoba Harvest brand as well as other brands by leveraging Manitoba Harvest's established supply chain going forward.

We also recently acquired Natura Naturals Holdings Inc., a federally licensed cannabis cultivation company based in Leamington, Ontario for approximately CAD70 million. The increased supply from Natura, which we have rebranded as High Park Gardens, will allow us to further expand our market share in the Canadian adult-use market with high-quality branded cannabis products.

Finally, in December, we invested CAD7.5 million in ROSE Life Sciences, a Quebec based cannabis producer, and have an exclusive sale, supply, distribution and marketing agreement to deliver adult-use products under our portfolio of brands in Quebec. We believe our recent strategic global partnerships and acquisitions demonstrate our emphasis, on the diversification of our global opportunities for long-term growth and our disruption of critical industries as we expand our addressable market.

Our team remains disciplined in our approach, making key strategic investments to support the sustainable growth we expect to achieve over the next several years. Last week, we announced that Andrew Pucher has joined us, as our Chief Corporate Development Officer, overseeing M&A and corporate investments. Andrew previously served as the Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, where he most recently covered the Canadian cannabis industry. We are excited about the contributions he will make as we accelerate our growth.

Going forward, we will continue to pursue strategic M&A that opens new territories, increases our capacity, increases our brand offerings through innovative farm factors, brings us R&D technologies and we expect this selectively invest in retail distribution.

As I said earlier, our increased focus on the US and Europe, among other international markets, is tied to the fact that we believe they represent a significantly larger opportunity for Tilray long term, where we can extend beyond our potential in Canada. Simply put, we are building a company for the long term. We believe that the field of battle has changed and that the US and Europe are going to be more important over the long term.

In the US, Tilray is building a portfolio of brands and products with the goal of making them industry leaders in every market, where cannabis is legal. I believe we are a lot closer to federal legalization in the US than most people realize.

The Farm Bill presents an excellent opportunity for Tilray to capitalize on an estimated US$22 billion hemp-derived CBD industry in the US. We have US CBD supply chain in place through the acquisition of Manitoba Harvest in a deal to produce hemp-derived CBD infused products for authentic brands group as regulations permit.

We have also finalized the CBD supply agreement to source CBD from LiveWell Canada, and the United States for wellness and medical Tilray branded CBD products across North America. We expect LiveWell to begin shipping product to us during the second quarter of 2019. In the coming months, we expect to make additional announcements about strategic investments and partnerships in the US to position Tilray for long term leadership in the market.

Focusing on Europe, just last month, the European Parliament passed a resolution similar to the World Health Organization's recommendation to increase access to medical cannabis. Further legitimizing the industry, and we believe this decision will encourage other states and countries to legalize. We began 2018 with 28 countries having legalized medical use globally and ended the year with 41. And we can easily see how that number grows to 50 or 60 by the end of 2019.

Our EU Campus in Portugal completed a successful medical harvest earlier this month and we are well positioned to serve the EU market, as more countries legalize. We expect the EU Campus to produce and distribute cannabis in the EU for the EU and believe that having a local vertically integrated supply chain presence is an important differentiator for us to reduce costs and hedge against regulatory risk. Our campus includes indoor, outdoor and greenhouse cultivation sites, as well as research labs, processing, packaging and distribution sites for medical products.

This first harvest was a significant milestone for the company and we expect multiple harvests in the coming months. By the end of 2019, we expect to increase our production space to 2.2 million square feet, approximately double compared to the end of 2018. On our existing properties, we have the ability to expand our total production space to 4.5 million square feet. Our seven production facilities around the world are significantly increasing our global production output compared to 2018.

While the Canadian market remains challenged with quality supply, we are confident the supply demand will become more balanced over time, as additional supply becomes available. Longer term, we do not believe Tilray will be in the farming business, so we're not allowing the near-term supply disruption to change our strategy for growth over the next two years.

From a retail perspective, we've have taken small steps in Canada including minority investments in Fire & Flower, Inner Spirit and Westleaf, and expect to invest more aggressively in the months to come. To aiding our global expansion, we have formed an International Advisory Board to provide strategic perspective to our executive team and Board of Directors. The Advisory Board consists of 10 internationally renowned business and government leaders, who continue to provide us with strategic insights, as we pioneer the future of our industry.

As mentioned earlier, we have also expanded our global senior leadership team with six strategic executive hires from world-class organizations to help our existing teams spearhead our future growth and development internationally. In addition to Andrew Pucher, as our new Chief Corporate Development Officer from Goldman Sachs, we hired Greg Christopher, who joined from Nestle to be our Executive Vice President of Operations. Rita Seguin joined from Diageo as Executive Vice President of Human Resources.

Dara Redler, our General Counsel, joined from Coca-Cola. Charlie Cain , our Vice President of Retail, joined from Starbucks and Sascha Mielcarek, our Managing Director Europe joined us from Grunenthal . At the same time, our team remains deeply committed to clinical research. This is important for the future of medicine, as well as being a competitive differentiator in the industry and has accelerated awareness, very positive awareness in international medical cannabis market.

Most recently in the fourth quarter, we partnered with researchers at the Lambert Initiative for Cannabinoid Therapeutics at the University to Sydney to complete a study examining the effects of cannabis on driving and cognitive function. The trial phase of the study culminated in 2018 and results are expected to be published sometime this year.

Looking ahead to the balance of the year and into 2020, we continue to anticipate the following corporate milestones: Launching Tilray and Manitoba Harvest CBD products in the US, as regulations permit, signing additional adult-use supply agreements in Canada, shipping Tilray products to pharmacy chains in Canada, exporting Tilray medical products to new countries, expanding Tilray's medical cannabis product offerings in the international markets we currently serve, extending our existing pharmaceutical partnerships to additional countries and regions, obtaining a sales license for High Park's processing facility in London, Ontario; additional clinical trials; recruiting additional executives from outside of the industry to further strengthen our management team; and finally, adding strategic partnerships and acquisitions in the United States and Europe.

In summary, we are incredibly proud of our achievements in 2018 and are excited about our growth potential over the next several years. We will continue to execute on our strategic initiatives and take actions that will fuel long term value for our shareholders as well as our customers, consumers, patients, and employees around the world.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Mark.

Mark Castaneda -- Chief Financial Officer, Secretary and Treasurer

Thanks, Brendan. Good afternoon to those of you joining us on the today's call and webcast. It is a pleasure to be speaking with you today. Please note all the financial information we discussed today is prepared in accordance with US GAAP that is in US dollars unless otherwise indicated. We are pleased to report the fourth quarter financial results and the significant growth opportunities that lie ahead.

Focusing on fourth quarter results in more detail; Q4 revenue was $15.5 million, representing an increase of 204%, as compared to the fourth quarter last year. Revenue growth is driven by the inaugural sales for the Canadian adult-use market, bulk sales and accelerated wholesale distribution in export markets.

Extract products represented a greater mix at approximately 54% of revenue for the fourth quarter of 2018, compared to 24% of revenue for the same period last year. We are pleased with the performance in adult-use market so far and expect adult-use to be a growth driver for 2019, as we continue to ramp up supply and with additional form factors that are expected to be included in our results later this year.

Moving on to operational metrics. Total kilogram equivalents sold increased more than threefold to 2053 kilograms from 694 kg in the same quarter of 2017. The overall average net selling price per gram increased to $7.52 from $7.13 in the prior year. The increase is primarily due to an increase in mix of higher priced extract products with improved price per gram, as a percentage of total revenue compared to the prior year.

Looking at the Canadian direct to patient sales, our average selling price per gram increase 9.4%to $7.43 compared to $6.79 per gram. Again, primarily due to product mix. Drilling into adult-use, our average and selling price per gram was $5.40 per gram, which we expect to increase over the longer term, as higher price value-added products become available in Q4. On the production side, we continue to expect significant increase throughout 2019, as we expand our capacity to 90 metric tonnes, as we bring our Ontario greenhouse and Portugal facilities fully online. As Brendan mentioned, we've recently completed successful harvest at our EU Campus in Portugal and has a multiple harvest in the coming months.

Gross margin for Q4 decreased to 20% from 57% in the same period last year. As a result, the procurement of third-party supply, costs related to ramping up our production and absorbing the tax for medical patients. We expect to see margin pressure during the ramp up of our production facilities and during the temporary lack of industry supply.

Longer term, we continue to expect 50% plus gross margins, as we lower our costs through greenhouse and outdoor cultivation and as we ramp those facilities past the start-up phase. We also expect reduced revenue per unit, as selling wholesale in the adult-use market becomes a bigger mix of our revenues.

Our total operating expenses increased to $26 million, which includes $4.1 million in non-cash stock compensation expense, excluding that operating expenses increased to $21.9 million from $5.5 million in the prior year. The increase was primarily due to $12.3 million increase in G&A associated with higher professional fees and increased resources that support our growth and expansion for the start up of operations for adult-use.

Net loss for the quarter was $31 million or $0.33 per share compared to $3 million or $0.04 per share in the fourth quarter of 2017. Net loss included non-cash stock compensation charge of $4.1 million compared to $34000 charged in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $17.8 million compared to a loss of $2.1 million in the fourth quarter of last year. The increase in net loss and adjusted EBITDA was primarily due to the expected increase in operating expenses related to driving our expansion forward, such as investing on continued growth, expansion of international teams and costs related to M&A and public company costs.

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of approximately $517 million. As a reminder, in October we announced the pricing of a $475 million convertible debt private placement, resulting a net proceeds before expenses of about $460 million. We intend to use the proceeds for working capital, future acquisitions, and general corporate purposes. We believe we have sufficient capital to execute our CapEx and offer an expansion plans for the next 12 to 18 months.

On a longer term basis, we intend to further build on our early leadership in the global cannabis industry and to achieve growth for years to come. We see an opportunity to capture a sizable portion of this market with estimated gross margins of 50% plus and adjusted EBITDA margins of 25% to 30%.

The EBITDA margins are based on the legal markets that exist today, and as new markets are added, we will invest to develop those markets, which could have

Buy Domino's Pizza For Fantastic Total Return And Steady Growth

This article is about Domino's Pizza (DPZ) and why it's a great buy for the total return investor that also wants some dividend income. Domino's Pizza is one of the largest fast food companies in the United States and foreign countries.

Domino's Pizza will be evaluated using The Good Business Portfolio guidelines, my IRA portfolio of good business companies that are balanced among all styles of investing. The company has steady growth and has cash it uses to increase the dividends each year and open new stores.

When I scanned the five-year chart, Domino's Pizza has a good chart going up and to the right on a strong upslope from 2015 through to date. This is the kind of chart I like showing the defensive nature of their business with straight line growth.

Chart Data by YCharts

Fundamentals of Domino's Pizza will be reviewed on the following topics below.

The Good Business Portfolio Guidelines Total Return and Yearly Dividend Last Quarter's Earnings Company Business Takeaways Recent Portfolio Changes

I use a set of guidelines that I codified over the last few years to review the companies in The Good Business Portfolio (my portfolio) and other companies that I am reviewing. For a complete set of the guidelines, please see my article " The Good Business Portfolio: Update to Guidelines, August 2018". These guidelines provide me with a balanced portfolio of income, defensive, total return and growing companies that hopefully keeps me ahead of the Dow average.

Good Business Portfolio Guidelines

Domino's Pizza International passes 10 of 11 Good Business Portfolio Guidelines, a good score (a good score is 10 or 11). These guidelines are only used to filter companies to be considered in the portfolio. Some of the points brought out by the guidelines are shown below.

Domino's Pizza does not meet my dividend guideline of having dividends increase for 8 of the last ten years and having a minimum of 1% yield, with seven years of increasing dividends and a 1.1% yield. Domino's Pizza is, therefore, a good choice for the dividend income investor because the dividend growth is 22% over the past 5 years and next year should easily pass this guideline. The three-year average payout ratio is low at 25%. After paying the dividend, this leaves plenty of cash remaining for increasing the business by opening new stores. I have a capitalization guideline where the capitalization must be greater than $10 Billion. DPZ passes this guideline. DPZ is a mid-cap company with a capitalization of $10.1 Billion. Domino's Pizza 2019 projected cash flow at $400 Million is good allowing the company to have the means for company growth and increased dividends. I also require the CAGR going forward to be able to cover my yearly expenses and my RMD with a CAGR of 7%. My dividends provide 3.3% of the portfolio as income, and I need 1.9% more for a yearly distribution of 5.2% plus an inflation cushion of 1.8%. The three-year forward CAGR of 17% meets my guideline requirement. This good future growth for Domino's Pizza can continue its uptrend benefiting from the continued growth in the worldwide economy. My total return guideline is that total return must be greater than the Dow's total return over my test period. DPZ passes this guideline since their total return is 153.85%, much more than the Dow's total return of 44.04%. Looking back five years, $10,000 invested five years ago would now be worth over $32,400 today. This makes Domino's Pizza a good investment for the total return investor looking back, that has future growth as the economy continues to grow. One of my guidelines is that the S&P rating must be three stars or better. DPZ's S&P CFRA rating is three stars or hold with a target price to $275, passing the guideline. DPZ's price is presently 12% below the target. DPZ is under the target price at present and has a high PE of 25, making DPZ a fair buy at this entry point for the long term growth investor that wants good steady increasing dividends and future total return growth. One of my guidelines is would I buy the whole company if I could. The answer is yes. The total return is great, and the below average growing dividend makes DPZ a good business to own for income and growth. The Good Business Portfolio likes to embrace all kinds of investment styles but concentrates on buying businesses that can be understood, makes a fair profit, invests profits back into the business and also generates a good income stream. Most of all what makes DPZ interesting is the potential long-term growth of their business as the working population and the worldwide economy increases. Total Return and Yearly Dividend

The Good Business Portfolio Guidelines are just a screen to start with and not absolute rules. When I look at a company, the total return is a key parameter to see if it fits the objective of the Good Business Portfolio. Domino's Pizza passes this total return guideline against the Dow baseline in my 51-month test. I chose the 51 month test period (starting January 1, 2015, and ending to date) because it includes the great year of 2017, and other years that had fair and bad performance. The good total return of 153.85% makes Domino's Pizza a great investment for the total return investor that also wants a steadily increasing income. DPZ has a below average dividend yield of 1.1% and has had increases for seven years making DPZ also a fair choice for the dividend investor. The Dividend was increased February 2019 to $0.65/Qtr. from $0.55/Qtr. or an 18% increase.

DOW's 51 Month total return baseline is 44.04%

Company Name

51 Month total return

The difference from DOW baseline

Yearly Dividend percentage

Domino's Pizza

153.85%

+109.81%

1.1%

Click to enlarge

Last Quarter's Earnings

For the last quarter on February 21, 2019, Domino's Pizza reported earnings that missed expected by $0.07 at $2.62 and compared to last year at $2.09. Total revenue was higher at $1.09 Billion up more than a year ago by 21.38% year over year and missed expected revenue by $7.9 Million. This was a mixed report with the bottom line increasing over last year but missing expected earnings and the top line increasing. The next earnings report will be out late May 2019 and is expected to be $2.14 compared to last year at $2.00.

Business Overview

Domino's Pizza is one of the largest fast food companies in the United States and foreign countries.

As per excerpts from Reuters

Domino's Pizza is a pizza restaurant chain company. As of January 1, 2017, the Company operated in over 13,800 locations in over 85 markets around the world.

The Company operates through three segments: domestic stores, an international franchise, and supply chain. Its basic menu features pizza products in various sizes and crust types. Its stores also offer oven-baked sandwiches, pasta, boneless chicken and wings, bread side items, desserts, and soft drink products.

International markets vary toppings by country and culture, such as squid toppings in Japan or spicy cheese in India, and feature regional specialty items, such as a banana and cinnamon dessert pizza in Brazil."

Overall Domino's Pizza is a good business with 17% CAGR projected growth as the United States and foreign economies grow going forward, with the increasing demand for DPZ's fast food. The below average dividend income brings you cash as we continue to see further growth as the world economy grows.

The FED has kept interest rates low for some years, and on December 19, 2018, they raised the base rate of 0.25%, which was expected. I believe that they will go slow in 2019, which should help keep the economy on a growth path. If infrastructure spending can be increased, this will even increase the United States growth going forward with better economics for the consumer. At the March 20 meeting, the FED lowered United States GDP projection for 2019 which may mean they are getting to neutral on the economy, projecting no rate increases for 2019. The FED meeting Statement was a wait and see and a bit more dovish than the last meeting.

From February 21, 2019, earnings call Rich Allison (Chief Executive Officer and President) said

I'm pleased with what was a terrific fourth quarter, one that capped another outstanding year for Domino's. Our results continue to outpace the industry and our franchisees across the globe continue to make me extremely proud.

Retail sales growth matters, and once again we delivered. Our global retail sales growth reflected a strong balance, across our US and international businesses. For both businesses in Q4, our growth reflected a healthy blend of unit growth and traffic driven same-store sales. Looking first at our US business, double-digit retail sales growth in Q4 was comprised of a very healthy and order count driven 5.6% comp and 125 net new units.

Turning now to International, we delivered strong retail sales growth for the fourth quarter and a double-digit result for the whole year. Fourth quarter net unit openings were particularly strong and represented a significant acceleration over previous quarters. Same-store sales performance can certainly improve versus what we have all come to expect, but I'm pleased to see all of our comp coming from order growth.

During the quarter, we had two important milestones. First, we opened our 10,000 stores outside of the United States, a testament to the unit growth engine, this segment has provided to the business over a lengthy period of time. In addition, the fourth quarter was officially our 100th consecutive quarter of positive same-store sales growth. To think that we have grown sales in our international business for 25 straight years, and 100 straight quarters, still honestly blows my mind. And is a testament to us having the best international model in QSR."

This shows the feelings of top management for the continued growth of the Domino's Pizza business and shareholder return with an increase in future growth. DPZ has good growth and will continue as the foreign economies grow and demand for fast food increases. Domino opened 1058 new stores in 2018 with expectations of more to come in 2019.

The graphic below shows the global growth of Domino's Pizza over the years with increasing sales almost every year as stated by the CEO.

The fourth quarter marked our 31st consecutive quarter of positive US same-store sales growth and capped very strong top-line performance in 2018, above our three to five-year outlook range. And continually driven by focus, fundamentals, and execution. I'm so proud of our US franchisees and teams who continue to lead the Domino's system."

Source: March 8, 2019, Investment Conference Slides

Takeaways

Domino's Pizza is a great investment choice for the total return investor with it's above DOW average total return and the dividend growth investor for income. Domino's Pizza will be considered for The Good Business Portfolio as an addition to the McDonalds (MCD) position since they sell different products. If you want a growing dividend income and great total return in the fast food business, DPZ may be the right investment for you.

Recent Portfolio Changes

I intend to watch the earnings reports for the companies in the portfolio and may finally decide to trim my high flyers that are over 8% of the portfolio so I can invest in good companies on my buy list.

On March 13 increased position of Realty Income Corp. (O) to 0.85% of the portfolio, I could use a bit more steady monthly income. On March 12 the portfolio closed out the position of Arconic (ARNC) , I only have one more commodity play Freeport McMoRan (FCX) that I think will go up over time. On March 11 the portfolio reduced the position of Arconic (ARNC) from 0.4% of the portfolio to 0.3%. I will sell the rest of this position within the month. The dividend was just cut, and forward growth is under-par. On March 7 added to position of Simulation Plus (SLP) from 0.33% of the portfolio to 0.45%. I will add slowly to this position as available cash allows. On March 4, trimmed position of Hewlett Packard (HPQ) from 1.3% of the portfolio to 1.0%. The last earnings report was poor, and future growth looks weak at 2%, time to sell HPQ for a better business. On February 28, trimmed position of Boeing (BA) from 16.1% of the portfolio to 15.8%. I love Boeing, but you have to have diversification. On February 2 increased position of Realty Income Corp. to 0.7% of the portfolio, I could use a bit more steady monthly income. On January 30 increased the position of Simulations Plus from 0.2% of the portfolio to 0.4%. I think their product may be the product of the future for drug testing. On January 28 Bought a starter position of Realty Income Corp., I could use a bit more steady income and hope to add to this holding in the future. Realty Income Corp. is now 0.4% of the portfolio. On January 28 sold the remaining portion of Mondelez (MDLZ). The forward growth does not look good enough. On January 24 increased the position of Digital Reality Investors (DLR) from 3.1% of the portfolio to 3.6%. I want to get DLR up to a full position of 4%. On January 16 sold the remaining shares of 3M (MMM). I decided to sell this small position in order to reduce the number of positions with a new target number of 20 positions max from 25. On January 11 started a new position in Lockheed (LMT) at 0.65% of the portfolio.

The Good Business Portfolio trims a position when it gets above 8% of the portfolio. The five top percentage of the portfolio companies in the portfolio are, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is 8.3% of the portfolio, Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund II is 8.0% of the portfolio, Home Depot (HD) is 8.8% of the portfolio, Omega Health Investors (OHI) and Boeing (BA) is 14.8% of the portfolio. Therefore BA, EOS, JNJ, OHI, and Home Depot are now in trim position, but I am letting them run a bit since they are great companies.

Boeing is going to be pressed to 15% of the portfolio because of it being cash positive on 787 deferred plane costs at $316 Million in the first quarter of 2017, an increase from the fourth quarter. The first quarter earnings for 2018 were unbelievable at $3.64 compared too expected at $2.64. Farnborough Air Show sales in dollar value just beat out Air-Bus by about $6 Billion, and both companies had a great number of orders. Boeing received an order for 18 more KC-46A planes. The second quarter 2018 earnings beat expectations by $0.06 at $3.33, but a good report was hurt by a write off expense on the KC-46 which has started delivery in 2019. Two KC-46A tankers were delivered in January 2019. As a result of the good fourth-quarter earnings, S&P CFRA raised the one-year price target to $500 for a possible 20% upside potential. Boeing has dropped in the last 2 weeks because of the second 737 Max-8 crash, and I look at this as an opportunity to buy BA at a reasonable price. This is just my opinion.

JNJ will be pressed to 9% of the portfolio because of its defensive nature in this post-BREXIT world. Earnings in the last quarter beat on the top and bottom line and Mr. Market did nothing. JNJ has an estimated dividend increase to $0.97/Qtr. in April 2019, which will be 57 years in a row of increases. JNJ is not a trading stock but a hold forever; it is now a strong buy as the healthcare sector remains under pressure.

For the total Good Business Portfolio, please see my article on The Good Business Portfolio: 2018 4 th Quarter Earnings and Performance Review for the complete portfolio list and performance. Become a real-time follower, and you will get each quarter's performance after the next earnings season is over.

Disclosure: I am/we are long BA, JNJ, HD, OHI, MO, IR, DLR, GE, PM, IR, EOS, TXN, ADP, FCX, MCD, O. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Of course, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and you should always do your own research and talk to your financial advisor before any purchase or sale. This is how I manage my IRA retirement account, and the opinions of the companies are my own.

Now Is One of the Best Opportunities to Buy Home Depot Stock

After reporting a less-than-stellar quarter on Feb. 26, investors began selling shares of Home Depot (NYSE:HD). It hasn’t been catastrophic for Home Depot stock, but shares have been under pressure since the report.

home depot stock HD stockhome depot stock HD stockSource: Shutterstock

The numbers of Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) are likely having an effect too. After initially rallying on the report, the stock fell for seven straight sessions. That’s caused a lot of investors to ask whether these stocks are worth owning at this point.

Spring Season

Investors are seemingly overlooking the spring season. When the holidays roll around, of course Home Depot, Lowe’s and others do well in sales. Every family’s handyman or DIY member is eligible for a home improvement gift, right? Right.

But that hardly compares to the numbers that HD stock will put up in the second quarter as homeowners and contractors get to work fixing up houses, cleaning up yards and renovating kitchens and bathrooms. As such, Home Depot will bring on 80,000 new workers to account for the increase in demand.

The downside to all this? These results show up in Q2, not Q1, which HD is in right now. That said, the silver lining here is that investors have an opportunity to buy or accumulate Home Depot stock while it’s under pressure. That’s better than buying a stock red-hot into its best numbers.

Valuing Home Depot Stock

Home Depot is a high-quality company, but it’s seen better years when it comes to growth. For the current year, estimates call for earnings growth of just 2.2%, despite expectations for 3.2% revenue growth.

Estimates for next year improve, where analysts expect 9.3% earnings growth on 4.6% sales growth. Although, it’s hard to put too much weight into next fiscal year when we’ve only just begun this one.

So where does that leave HD stock? Shares trade at about 18 times this year’s earnings, which isn’t necessarily cheap but is also far from expensive. Investors also need to consider the Home Depot’s 3% dividend yield down near these levels.

Over the last six years, Home Depot has traded with a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 on the low end and 25 on the high end. So below this mark now, it’s technically undervalued vs. its recent five-year history.

Further, assuming one overlooks the December selloff, they’d have to go all the way back to 2011 to find HD stock paying out a higher dividend yield. That’s following the company’s 32% boost last month.

Home Depot is making the investments necessary to makes its online game stand tall against companies like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), has a below-average valuation vs. its historical range and is paying out a 3% dividend yield. I’ll admit that the growth is somewhat stagnant for the year, but there’s a lot to like about HD stock for the patient investor.


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Trading HD Stock

chart of HD stockchart of HD stock
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Home Depot has fallen about $10 from its pre-earnings levels, but that ~5% loss isn’t too hard for most investors to stomach. For now, the 50-day moving average is propping up HD, while the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements are keeping it range bound.

A break of either one of those Fib levels will likely send that stock in the continued direction. Meaning, a break below the 38.2% Fib will likely send HD stock lower and a breakout over the 61.8% Fib will likely send Home Depot higher.

At this point though, with the lack of a real catalyst, the risk is to the downside. Should Home Depot stock lose the 50-day and subsequently Fib support, the stock could see $170 again.

In that sense, investors who want to trade HD stock can go long near current levels, with a stop-loss on a close below this key area. Long-term investors though may consider this an advantageous spot to add to their position.

Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Ken

Thursday’s Vital Data: Aurora Cannabis, Roku and Merck

U.S. stock futures are flirting with unchanged this morning as the market seeks to extend its gains for the fourth day in a row.

Thursday's Vital Data: Aurora Cannabis, Roku and MerckThursday's Vital Data: Aurora Cannabis, Roku and MerckThe S&P 500 is once again probing critical resistance at $2,820. This marks the sixth such test since October and a successful break will signal a major victory for bulls.

Against this backdrop, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are down 0.02% and S&P 500 futures are higher by 0.02%. Nasdaq-100 futures have added 0.09%.

In the options pits, call volume jumped yesterday, helping to drive overall volume to above-average levels. Specifically, about 20.3 million calls and 15.6 million puts changed hands on the session.

Meanwhile, at the CBOE the single-session equity put/call volume ratio skidded to a lowly 0.52 which is just shy of a new low for 2019. The 10-day moving average held steady at 0.65.

Let’s zero in on three hot stocks landing atop the options most-actives list. Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ:ACB) soared after the company announced a strategic partnership with activist investor Nelson Peltz. Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) suffered a 14% thrashing after being downgraded by Loop Capital and Macquarie. Finally, Merck (NYSE:MRK) options were hot ahead of its quarterly dividend date.

Let’s take a closer look:

Aurora Cannabis (ACB)

Aurora Cannabis scored the highest-volume session of its life yesterday after reporting Nelson Peltz was joining the company as a strategic advisor. In the press release, ACB stated Peltz will “work collaboratively and strategically to explore potential partnerships that would be the optimal strategic fit for successful entry into each of Aurora’s contemplated market segments.”

Investors expressed their excitement over the news by bidding ACB stock to a new four-and-a-half month high at $9.07. The 13.9% daily gain saw over 133 million shares change hands on the session. The surge officially completes the bullish cup-and-handle pattern that had formed in the stock and tees it up for a run back toward its record high of $12.53.

The enthusiasm was on full display in the options pits where calls dominated the day. Activity rocketed to 459% of the average daily volume, with 214,940 total contracts traded. 85% of the trading came from call options alone.


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Roku (ROKU)

A double dose of downgrades took ROKU shares out at the knees yesterday, upending what was otherwise one of the best trends on the Street. The stock entered the day up 131% on the year and a stone’s throw from new all-time highs.

Saddened shareholders seeking someone to blame can cast their eyes to Loop Capital and Macquarie. Analysts at both firms downgraded the red-hot stock, citing stretched valuations.

The cold water tossing was bound to happen at some point. Even with starry-eyed growth projections, it’s hard to justify such a blistering pace in ROKU stock’s ascension. Its price chart was begging for a pullback, and the downgrades were all the excuse needed for profit-fattened traders to ring the register.

Given the bevy of support zones looming beneath, I suspect this dip will prove buyable.

On the options trading front, puts slightly outpaced calls. Activity grew to 329% of the average daily volume, with 208,637 total contracts traded. Puts added 51% to the day’s tally.

Implied volatility zoomed higher on the day to 62%, placing it at the 33rd percentile of its one-year range. Premiums are now pricing in daily moves of $2.38, or 3.9%

Merck (MRK)

The past year has brought numerous new highs to Merck shares, proving once again the value of betting on trend continuation. At $81.60, the pharmaceutical giant ended Wednesday a pebble toss away from record territory.

While MRK stock ended with a doji candle amid an otherwise lackluster trading session, its options were on fire ahead of today’s ex-dividend date. Traders holding the stock by yesterday’s close will have rights to the looming 55 cent dividend payout. All-in, Merck boasts an annual dividend yield of 2.71%.

Saavy traders used call options to snatch up shares of stock and have rights to the dividend. Total activity ballooned to 576% of the average daily volume, with 147,033 total contracts traded. A whopping 96% of the trading originated with calls.

Implied volatility remains subdued at 15%, or the second percentile of its one-year range. Premiums are pricing in daily moves of 76 cents, or 0.9%.

As of this writing, Tyler Craig didn’t hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Check out his recently released Bear Market Survival Guide to learn how to defend your portfolio against