The Federal Reserve And The Relationship With The Economy

By Craig Elder, Senior Vice President and Fixed Income Strategist, Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.

While the Fed’s efforts in maintaining price stability has been very successful largely as the result of former Fed Chair Paul Volker raising interest rates to dramatically lower inflation in the early 1980’s, the efforts in promoting economic growth is not as strong (we are not going to debate the merit of the Fed’s efforts to keep the Great Recession of 2008 from becoming the Great Depression of 2009) but economic growth remains relatively weak coming out of the recent recession.

GDP for the first quarter of 2014 was negative 2.9% but since a part (possibly larger part) of the problem in the first quarter was cold-weather related we doubt that the dating committee will call the first quarter a recession. The weakness in the first quarter raises the question whether economic activity will get to the 2.5%-3.5% range that the Fed prefers for the entire year. We have doubts that that growth will be strong enough in the remainder of the year to offset the first quarter weakness. As of this writing, the consensus forecast and the Fed’s forecast for GDP is growth of 2.2% for 2014. The Fed’s forecast for economic activity in 2015 is 3.1% and 2.75% in 2016 while the consensus street forecast is 3.0% in both years.

Inflation

Inflation has not been an issue for the past few years as the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator year-over-year, was at 1.8% in May (see Bloomberg chart below). However, that was the highest reading since November 2012 and a jump from 1.1% in March which created some concern among fixed income investors that inflation could be an issue the Fed will have to deal with sooner than later.

As can be seen in the chart that goes back to 1970, inflation had been a severe problem for the American economy for most of the 70’s as we experienced shocks to the economy whe! n oil price spiked higher. President Jimmy Carter appointee to head the Fed, Paul Volker, raised interest rates dramatically in order to lower inflation to acceptable levels. In doing so he also sent the economy into a double-dip recession but the taming of inflation allowed for solid economic growth with no significant inflation concerns for most of the decades 1980’s, 1990’s and 2000’s (with the exceptions of the glitches mentioned earlier in the article).

With economic growth being tepid since 2007, inflation has not been a major concern of the Fed. In fact, some FOMC members have expressed concerns over deflation similar to what has been experienced in Japan and currently feared in Europe. With the higher prints in the PCE deflator recently, deflation is not considered a problem in the U.S.

The Tools of the Federal Reserve

The Fed has three major monetary policy tools to go along with “jawboning”, i.e. communication of their monetary efforts to the markets, at the disposal to promote economic growth and maintain stable prices. The discount rate (however, we will focus on the fed funds target rate), reserve requirement, and open market operations that influence the demand for and supply of balances held at Federal Reserve Banks by depository institutions and ultimately the level of the Federal funds rate (the base rate for the whole economy).

There is a distinction between the Fed funds rate and the discount rate. The Fed funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions actively trade balances (excess reserves) held at the Fed or better put, the interest rate charged by commercial banks to other banks that are borrowing money, usually overnight. The Fed funds rate is primarily determined by the balance of supply and demand for the funds. The Fed funds target rate is set by Federal Open Market Committee (FO! MC), ! currently 0.0%-0.25%, but the actual rate that’s used overnight can be higher or lower depending on supply of funds and the demand by banks for loans. The discount window is a term used when banks borrow money from the Fed for themselves—and not for lending to other banks. The interest rate charged on such loans by a central bank is called the discount rate or repo rate. The discount rate is set by the Fed.

Reserve requirements are the amount of funds that a depository institution—a commercial bank—must hold in reserve against specified deposit liabilities. This is to make sure banks have enough funds to cover their liabilities. The banks' reserve funds are held by the Federal Reserve. Please note, this is mostly on paper. No physical money usually changes hands between the banks and the Fed. The dollar amount of a bank’s reserve requirement is determined by applying reserve ratios specified by the Federal Reserve Board to an institution's liabilities. For instance, if a bank has between $13.3 million to $89.0 million in liabilities, it must have funds in the Fed of 3% of the actual total.

Open market operations (OMOs)--the purchase and sale of securities in the open market by a central bank--are a key tool used by the Fed in the implementation of monetary policy. The short-term objective for open market operations is specified by the FOMC. Historically, the Federal Reserve has used OMOs to adjust the supply of reserve balances so as to keep the federal funds rate around the target established by the FOMC.

For the purpose of this report, we will focus on the Fed funds target rate and the asset purchase program (open market operations). The Fed, in an effort to keep the American economy from sliding into a depression or worse (worse being a complete collapse), during the last recession of 2008 & 2009 (unaffectionately called the “Great Recession”) took major and sometimes unprecedented action to boost economic activity. We do not debate whet! her or no! t these actions were needed or not but provide a review of the actions the Fed took.

Asset Purchases

The Fed held between $700 billion and $800 billion of Treasury notes on its balance sheet before the recession. However, in late November 2008, the Federal Reserve started buying $600 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in an effort to the housing market.

By March 2009, it held $1.75 trillion of bank debt, MBS, and Treasury notes, reaching $2.1 trillion in June 2010. Further purchases were ceased as the economy had started to improve, but resumed in August 2010 when the Fed decided the economy was not growing at an acceptable pace. After the halt in June, holdings started falling naturally as debt matured and holdings were projected to fall to $1.7 trillion by 2012. The Fed's revised goal became to keep holdings at $2.054 trillion. To maintain that level, the Fed bought $30 billion in two-to-ten-year Treasury notes every month.

In November 2010, the Fed announced a second round of quantitative easing, buying $600 billion of Treasuries debt by the end of the second quarter of 2011. This round of stimulus became known by the term "QE2". Retrospectively, the round of quantitative easing preceding QE2 was called "QE1".

On September 21, 2011, the FOMC announced the implementation of Operation Twist. This was a plan to purchase $400 billion of bonds with maturities of 6-to-30 years and to sell bonds with maturities less than 3 years, thereby extending the average maturity of the Fed's own portfolio. This was an attempt to do what Quantitative Easing (QE) tries to do, without printing more money and without expanding the Fed's balance sheet, in an attempt to avoid the inflationary pressure associated with QE. Further, on June 20, 2012 the FOMC announced an extension to the Twist program by adding $267 billion thereby extending it throughout 2012.

A third round of quantitative easing, "QE3", was announced on September 13, 2! 012. In a! n 11–1 vote, the FOMC decided to launch a new $40 billion per month, open-ended bond purchasing program of agency MBS. Because of its open-ended nature, QE3 earned the popular nickname of "QE-Infinity". On December 12, 2012, the FOMC announced an increase in the amount of open-ended purchases from $40 billion to $85 billion per month consisting of $45 billion of Treasury debt and $40 billion of MBS.

On June 19, 2013, Fed Chairman Bernanke announced a "tapering" of some of the Fed's QE policies contingent upon continued positive economic data. Specifically, he said that the Fed could scale back its bond purchases from $85 billion to $65 billion a month during the upcoming September 2013 policy meeting. He also suggested that the bond buying program could wrap up by mid-2014. However, longer-term interest rates spiked higher and Mr. Bernanke and New York Fed President William Dudley went on the speaking circuit (jawboning) in a failed effort to get the yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury note lower. The Fed held off on scaling back its purchase program until December 2013.

Beginning In 2014 the Fed has been reducing the amount of securities it is purchasing at each meeting with the current asset purchase level at $35 billion consisting of $20 billion of Treasury debt and $15 billion of MBS. It is expected that the Fed will continue to reduce the purchases by $10 billion per meeting until it is out of the bond buying business by the end of 2014.

The Fed currently (as of June 25, 2014) owns $4.09 trillion of securities consisting of $2.38 trillion of Treasury debt, $1.66 trillion of MBS and $43.7 billion of federal agency (debt of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Federal Home Loan Bank). We expect that the Fed will most likely let most of the portfolio “run-off” (mature) over a period of 5-8 years. They do not believe this is the most ideal way of dealing with the holdings but is probably the best option available to them.

Zero-bound Interest Rate! s

T! he Fed lowered the Fed funds target rate to the 0.0%-0.25% range (sometimes called the zero-range bound – ARB) in December 2008. In September 2012, the FOMC announced that it would likely maintain the Fed funds target rate near zero at least through 2015.

The market tends to focus on the Fed Funds target rate which has been at a zero range bound (ZRB) level (0.0% to 0.25%) since December 2008 (see chart from Market Realist below). Since the vote of the members of the FOMC influence the level of the Fed funds rate, markets are extremely interested in the leanings of FOMC members, which would provide a hint on the timing and level of the base rate. At this time, we believe that the FOMC will vote to begin moving off the ZRB level in mid-year 2015. Also, we expect that the Fed will move slowly, at 0.25% increments to the 2.0% level in late 2016 (absent a spike in inflation levels).

Going Forward

As we have stated above, we believe that the Fed will be out of the bond buying business by the end of this year and are likely to begin normalization of interest rates mid-year next year (best guess at this time would be July 29 meeting). However, we think the Fed will be cautious as they move the funds target rate higher and will only move rates at 25 bps per meeting, possibly skipping some meetings to see the impact of the moves on the economy, with the rate reaching 2.0% by the middle of 2016 as they head toward the central bank’s long-term rate range of 3.75%-4.00%.

Below is a 2014 year-end forecast of the yield curve based on the consensus forecast from CreditSights. While we believe this is likely the shape of the yield curve at the end of the year, we think there is a chance that the curve will be flatter than the consensus (see table below) forecast with the 2s/10s spread moving towards the normal range of 90-120 bps.

Sources: Bloomberg, CreditSights, Federal Reserve, Market Realist

Disclosures: Baird may from time to time have a proprietary position in the debt obligations of the issuers mentioned in the report. This report is for information purposes only and in no event should it be construed as a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell a security. The information presented herein is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness. Any issue named or rates mentioned are used for illustrative purposes only and may not represent specific features or securities available at a given time. The value of and income from investments may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, securities prices, market indexes, operational or financial conditions of the issuers, or other factors. Past performance is not a guarantee on future performance. Preliminary Official Statements, Final Official Statements, or Prospectuses for new issues mentioned herein are available upon request. For more information regarding municipal securities, visit emma.msrb.org.

This report does not provide recipients with information or advice that is sufficient on which to base an investment decision. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or need of any particular client and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Recipients should consider the contents of this report as a single factor in making an investment decision. Additional fundamental and other analyses would be required to make an investment decision about any individual security identified in this report.

For investment advice specific to your situation, or for additional information, please contact your Robert W. Baird Fin! ancial Ad! visor and/or your tax or legal advisor.

Copyright 2014 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated.

Other Disclosures

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This report is for distribution into the United Kingdom only to persons who fall within Article 19 or Article 49(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (financial promotion) order 2001 being persons who are investment professionals and may not be distributed to private clients. Issued in the United Kingdom by Robert W. Baird Limited, which has offices at Mint House 77 Mansell Street, London, E1 8AF, and is a company authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For the purposes of the Financial Conduct Authority requirements, this investment research report is classified as objective. Robert W. Baird Limited ("RWBL") is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. RWBL is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA") under UK laws and those laws may differ from Australian laws. This document has been prepared in accordance with FCA requirements and not Australian laws.

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Economists Sharply Cut Forecasts for U.S. Growth

Economic Outlook Julie Jacobson/AP WASHINGTON -- U.S. business economists have sharply cut their growth forecasts for the April-June quarter and 2014, though they remain optimistic that the economy will rebound from a dismal first quarter. The average forecast for growth in the second quarter has fallen to 3 percent, according to a survey released Friday by the National Association for Business Economics. That's down from 3.5 percent in a June survey. Growth in 2014 as a whole will be just 1.6 percent, they project, sharply below a previous forecast of 2.5 percent. If accurate, this year's growth would be the weakest since the Great Recession. The lower 2014 forecast largely reflects the impact of a sharp contraction in the first quarter. The economy shrank 2.9 percent at an annual rate, the biggest drop in five years. That decline will weigh heavily on the economy this year, even if growth resumes and stays at 3 percent or above, as most economists expect. The economists reduced their second-quarter forecast largely because they expect consumers spent at a much more modest pace. They now expect spending will grow just 2.3 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter, down from a 2.9 percent estimate in June. Spending rose just 1 percent in the first quarter, the smallest increase in four years, a sign consumers are still reluctant to spend freely. Many retail chains are feeling the pain. The Container Store (TCS) said Tuesday that sales at stores open for at least a year slipped 0.8 percent in the first quarter. "We are experiencing a retail 'funk,' " Kip Tindell, chief executive of The Container Store, said Tuesday. "While consumers are buying homes and automobiles and even high ticket furniture, most segments of retail are, like us, seeing more challenging sales than we had hoped early in 2014." Family Dollar Stores (FDO) and clothing retailer the Gap (GPS) also reported lower sales this week. Another factor weighed heavily on the first quarter: A big drop in exports widened the nation's trade deficit and accounted for about half the contraction. Exports picked up in May and trade is unlikely to be as big a drag in the second quarter. But the NABE survey found that economists expect exports will now rise just 2.5 percent this year, down from June's estimate of 3 percent. The weaker figures reflect sluggish economies in Europe and slower growth in China. The NABE did a special survey after the government announced the dismal figures at the end of June. The group typically surveys economists quarterly. Despite the downgrades, the survey underscores that economists are mostly optimistic about the rest of this year. Analysts largely blame the first quarter shrinkage on temporary factors, such as harsh winter weather and a sharp slowdown in inventory restocking. When companies restock their inventories at a weaker pace, it slows demand for factory goods and lowers production. Jack Kleinhenz, president of the association and chief economist at the National Retail Federation, said that most other recent economic data, particularly regarding hiring, has been positive. Employers have added an average of 230,000 jobs a month this year, one of the best stretches since the recession. In addition, consumers are more confident and government spending cuts and tax increases are exerting less of a drag. In 2013, a Social Security tax cut expired and government spending cuts were implemented. The combined effects slowed growth by 1.5 percentage points, economists estimate. "Many of the fundamentals are there for growth," Kleinhenz said. As a result, the 50 economists who responded to the survey see the chances of a recession this year or next as pretty low. Sixty percent said the odds were 10 percent or lower, and more than 90 percent said they were 25 percent or lower.

IPO market achieves liftoff

ipo takes off dot top NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Timing is everything, even on Wall Street.

A whopping 89 companies held initial public offerings on U.S. exchanges from April to the end of June. That was the hottest quarter for IPOs since 2007, according to a report released Thursday by PricewaterhouseCoopers.

The IPO surge was headlined by companies like GoPro (GPRO) and Weibo (WB), sometimes dubbed China's Twitter. They wanted to take advantage of the rising stock market and investor appetite for the next big thing.

Together, these 89 companies hauled in $21.5 billion in proceeds during the second quarter, representing a 41% bump from the same period the year before, PwC said.

The report highlights how the IPO market has bounced back after a brief pullback in the spring. Like much of the stock market, IPOs continue to benefit from the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies and the improving U.S. economy.

"There's was a steady accumulation of money on the sidelines. But with the economy appearing to be moving further away from the jaws of death, people's confidence has become a bit more positive," said David Menlow, president of IPOFinancial.com.

ipo market booms

The middle of June was an especially hot time for IPOs as 25 companies, or 28% of the quarter's total offerings, went public.

That spike was highlighted by GoPro, the wearable camera maker that zoomed 55% in its first day of trading after raising about $425 million. GoPro's blockbuster debut captured the attention of Wall Street, with the stock currently hovering an eye-popping 78% above its $24 IPO price.

Strong starts have been commonplace during the IPO boom. The average company going public in the second quarter enjoyed a 9.2% first-day bounce and finished the quarter 20% above its issue price, PwC said.

Like GoPro, 62% of IPOs also priced either above or within their estimated price ranges, the report said. This is seen as a sign of solid demand.

Another high-profile company that enjoyed a successful U.S. debut last quarter was Weibo (WB), China's version of Twitter (TWTR, Tech30). The social media company popped 19% durin! g its first day of trading, though it's currently only trading 15% above its IPO price of $17.

Tech firms led the way in the second quarter, raising $5.1 billion from 22 IPOs, compared with $2.6 billion from 15 deals the year before, PwC said.

While the health-care sector only raised $1.8 billion during the second quarter, it led the way with 24 IPOs, up from 17 the year before. Hot drug IPOs include Zs Pharma (ZSPH), Kite Pharma (KITE) and GlobeImmune (GBIM), all of which debuted in June and are trading more than 40% above their IPO price.

Interestingly, the IPOs in the second quarter of 2014 raised less the fourth quarter of 2013. Of course, that quarter was boosted by the $1.8 billion raised from Twitter's IPO alone.

The growth of the IPO market should trickle down to startups scouring New York and Silicon Valley for investments from venture capitalists.

"A strong IPO market is the life blood of the venture capital industry as it provides an exit alternative and liquidity for venture investments in early stage growth companies," said Mark Cannice, a professor at the University of San Francisco.

Breakfast takes a bigger bite out of your wallet

breakfast plate inflation main NEW YORK (CNNMoney) The early bird is paying more for his worm these days.

If you're keeping a closer eye on your pocket book, you're feeling a pinch when you go to the grocery store.

Many popular breakfast items like coffee, bacon and sugar fluctuate in price if something happens to a lot of crops or animals. And lately, there have been a lot of "freak events."

A type of diarrhea killed a lot of pigs, driving up bacon costs, and a drought in Brazil pushed coffee prices higher.

How much of a hit these price spikes are causing to your wallet depends on your typical basket of groceries or your favorite breakfast plate.

Luckily, food prices usually don't all go up at the same time. Processed foods, including bread, see less price variation and are easier to store for the long haul.

breakfast plate inflation btn

"The fresh items that [people] would put in their breakfast will be increasing more than box-item cereals," said Annemarie Kuhns, an economist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service.

She said the USDA expects food prices to increase between 2.5% and 3%, in line with the historical averages. Larger increases in fresh items like meat and fruit should be balanced with slower price growth in processed and pre-made goods.

But mother nature acting up isn't the only thing that makes food more expensive.

Macroeconomic shifts, like the growing middle classes of emerging markets in China, impact prices as more people eat more meat and processed foods. There's more demand for these goods, and the supply hasn't entirely caught up with that yet. This year's booming milk market is a prime example.

Often, businesses from groceries to restaurants try to hedge against food price increases by paying months in advance to lock in a good price or buying forms of insurance to protect against fluctuations. But that doesn't always pan out.

"Restaurants can generally make internal adjustments to deal with temporary spike! s of individual commodities, but it could pose significant challenges if overall wholesale food prices remain elevated for a longer period of time," wrote Annika Stensson, a research spokeswoman for the National Restaurant Association, in an email.

That's what happened with companies like Starbucks (SBUX) and J.M. Smucker (SJM), which have both recently raised consumer prices when coffee beans didn't come down in cost for several months. At some point, companies have to pass those higher prices on to consumers.

Food prices tend to be more volatile than most goods. That's why official inflation data typically excludes food and energy in the calculation. Thus, many investors and Federal Reserve watchers place less weight on food costs as an economic measure. But that doesn't mean they're meaningless.

"Having to spend more on food raises the cost of living as much as having to spend more on anything else," said Larry Ball, a professor a Johns Hopkins University who studies macroeconomics.

People feel it every time they go to the grocery store, especially if they buy a lot of the items that are going up in price.

Still, Ball says we're nowhere near what happened in the 1970s when prices of many items -- even beyond food -- were rising rapidly.

Is the White-Hot IPO Market a Bubble Yet?

With 147 companies already going public this year, the U.S. market is on pace to see more IPOs in 2014 than any year since the dot-com boom of 2000 when 406 companies went public.

Title: ipos in 2014 - Description: ipos in 2014 In fact, 2014 has seen more IPOs in six months than 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2012 saw all year.

Last year, investors got a glimpse of the hot IPO market when 222 companies when public. But through the first half of the year, 2014 has seen a 60% increase in IPOs compared to 2013. Through June, 215 IPOs have been filed, which is up 92% from 2013.

Not only has the number of IPOs increased dramatically this year, the amount of money raised by IPOs is way up too. Through June, $31.5 billion was raised in initial public offerings. According to IPO investment firm Renaissance Capital, that's up nearly 53% from 2013.

For the most part, companies that have gone public this year have done well for early investors. Newly public stocks have averaged a gain of 14% on their first day and 20.4% overall in 2014.

Some of this year's biggest winners so far have been Zoes Kitchen Inc. (NYSE: ZOES) with a 129% return, Alder Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: ALDR) with a 101% return, and Celladon Corp. (Nasdaq: CLDN) with a 100% return since hitting the market.

Most recently, action-camera company GoPro Inc. (Nasdaq: GPRO) has hosted one of the most exciting IPOs of the year. After pricing shares at the high end of its range, GPRO shares have surged as high as 108% from its offer price.

"As the recent GoPro deal underscores, the IPO market is white-hot right now," Money Morning's Executive Editor Bill Patalon said. "A brand-new report from Renaissance Capital says that IPO proceeds were up 42.4% in the second quarter on a year-over-year basis. Global IPO proceeds are up by the same amount year to date."

And the pace of the IPO market seems to be picking up as the year goes on. June 2014 was the biggest month for IPOs in the last decade, with 32 companies hitting the market. The fourth week of June alone saw 19 companies hold IPOs.

While many companies are riding the momentum of the "white hot" IPO market, some analysts are wondering if we're reaching bubble territory. Patalon addressed this question and broke down what investors can do to profit from 2014's IPO-heavy environment...

Is the IPO Market Reaching Bubble Territory?

According to Patalon, the bubble speculation is justified at the moment - but not just because of the frenzied IPO market. The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program has flooded the market with cash and is lifting the overall market.

"The bubble potential goes beyond just the IPO market," Patalon said. "You have a central bank that's pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system in the last few years. As I know from watching the markets for 30 years, cheap money always shows up somewhere."

But the potential for a bubble isn't a reason to flee the market. It's impossible to make money watching the markets from afar. If anything, the current market condition requires investors make smart choices and find the companies with strong business models, rather than just high flyers.

"You can't swim against the current. By that I am referring to the old adage 'You can't fight the Fed,'" Patalon said. "So you want to try and find a way to balance the two: the worry that, as the market goes higher and higher, the potential risks increase, as well. But you also don't want to just sit on the sidelines and get left behind."

"In my mind, that makes this very much a 'stock-picker's market.' You look to find stocks with real businesses, real brands, real customers, real markets, and real growth potential."

And while the IPO market has been "white hot" for the first half of 2014 - the second half will trump it. That's because one of the largest IPOs of all time is coming in the next several months.

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is planning an IPO that some analysts estimate could raise $20 billion. That compares to the combined $31.5 billion that 215 companies raised in the last six months. Many projections have Alibaba valued at $168 billion, but recently, estimates have reached $221 billion.

And the best news about the looming Alibaba IPO is that it has created a major profit opportunity that most investors haven't yet noticed... It's happening now, months before Alibaba hits the market...

In fact, this could be your one and only chance to make the kind of gains normally reserved for the high-net-worth investors and bankers. You can learn more about this Alibaba profit play here.

Have you been investing in any IPOs in 2014? Join the conversation on Twitter @moneymorning using #IPOs.

Betting On Big Drop, Shorts Borrow All the GoPro Stock They Can

For GoPro Inc.(GPRO), now comes the hard part.

Bearish investors are out in full force betting against the video-camera maker’s stock price after it more than doubled throughout its first four days on the public markets. Whether GoPro can convince the skeptics of its future prospects will go a long way in determining the stock’s next move.

More In GoPro GoPro's Wall Street Honeymoon Just Keeps On Going Podcast: Dissecting GoPro's Strong Debut GoPro's Wall Street Honeymoon Continues Is GoPro a Gadget Maker? A Lifestyle Brand? Or a Social-Media Firm? Investors Stoked for GoPro

The cost of borrowing GoPro shares, a proxy for short-selling activity, has “immediately become one of the highest in our system,” says Karl Loomes, market analyst at Astec Analytics, a unit of financial technology firm SunGard. In addition the utilization level–the percentage of shares available to loan that are actually being borrowed–is near 100%, Mr. Loomes says. It’s rare for a stock to have such a high utilization level.

“Both these figures suggest borrowers are snapping up all the available GoPro shares they can, and are willing to pay a high price to do so,” Mr. Loomes says. Astec didn’t immediately provide the exact number of shares available to loan.

Short sellers borrow shares to sell them in hopes of buying them back cheaper at a later date, aiming to profit from a price decline.

GoPro shares recently fell as much as 15%, on track for the first decline since the company went public last week. The stock jumped 31% in its debut on Thursday and then gained 14%, 13% and 20% in each of its next three days, respectively. It traded as high as $49.90 on Tuesday, more than double its $24 IPO price, and recently traded at $44.70.

GoPro makes a wearable high-definition video recorder that is best known for appealing to the extreme-sports crowd. People who ski, surf, scuba dive, bike and climb use GoPro cameras as a way to record and share their exploits. But the company has also broadened its appeal and is now the top-selling camcorder in the world by volume, according to market researcher IDC. It generated about $1 billion in revenue last year and about $60 million in profit.

As we’ve noted, it’s unclear whether investors should value the firm as purely a gadget maker, or a lifestyle brand, or a social-media firm, or some combination of all three.

No matter what kind of company it is, it looks like GoPro’s Wall Street honeymoon is coming to an end. And until GoPro can back up its high stock price with strong quarterly results, short sellers aren’t likely to relent in their pursuit against the stock.

“Although sharp and strong moves are common in the first days of securities lending activity of a newly listed company, and often unrelated to short selling activity, these numbers are dramatic even by those standards,” Mr. Loomes said.

Hobby Lobby ruling won't actually impact small biz

hobby lobby small biz NEW YORK (CNNMoney) For the vast majority of small business owners, the hotly debated Hobby Lobby ruling will have no direct impact.

On Monday, the Supreme Court ruled that "closely-held" for-profit corporations (those that are majority owned by five or fewer people) can be granted religious exemptions from certain contraceptive coverage (such as IUDs and the morning-after pill) required under the Affordable Care Act.

Hobby Lobby is by no means a small business -- it has nearly 600 stores and some 13,000 employees. But the Supreme Court's description of "closely held" companies calls into question how far the ruling might extend.

Seventy-eight percent of small businesses are family-owned, according to LIMRA, an insurance trade research firm -- but only 2% of small businesses have 50 or more employees. This is key to the Hobby Lobby decision because any business with fewer than fifty employees is already exempted from the health insurance mandate under the Affordable Healthcare Act.

Of that 2%, businesses would have to prove a "sincere" religious belief in order to be exempt. While it's unclear how the sincerity will be tested (or how many businesses might make this claim), it's unlikely to be in most companies' best interests to go that route.

The actual cost of the contraception to employers is relatively minimal. According to 2011 report from the Actuarial Research Corporation (which used data from 2010) the corporation's estimated annual cost, as part of an insurance plan, is $26 per enrolled female. This amount includes all contraception, like standard birth control pills, which was not disputed in the Hobby Lobby case.

"From a purely economic perspective, [unintended pregnancies are] going to cost me and my insurance provider a lot more than birth control costs," said Jim Houser, owner of Hawthorne Auto Clinic in Portland, Ore., and executive board member of the Main Street Alliance.

He employs eleven workers -- four of whom are women -- and provides them with complete coverage despite not being legally obligated to do so.

"But, that's not my decision to make," added Houser. "Businesses have absolutely no business being involved in the personal relationships of any employee -- especially with a woman and her doctor."

Houser isn't the only one questioning the Supreme Court's decision. Laurie Sobel, senior policy analyst with t! he Kaiser Family Foundation, said there are still a lot of questions that need to be answered by the Department of Health & Human Services: How will the new exemption be enforced? Will companies self-certify (as nonprofits do) or will there be some sort of test to determine the sincerity of a company's religious beliefs?

There are also serious concerns about what this might mean for businesses that object to other aspects of health coverage. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg raised many of them in her vehement opposition.

"Would the exemption...extend to employers with religiously grounded objections to blood transfusions (Jehovah's Witnesses); antidepressants (Scientologists); medications derived from pigs, including anesthesia, intravenous fluids, and pills coated with gelatin (certain Muslims, Jews, and Hindus); and vaccinations ?" she wrote.

"The court, I fear, has ventured into a minefield," Ginsberg added.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the contraceptive coverage allowed under religions exemptions.