President Barack Obama��s positionthat dangerous global warming can be avoided without deeper cutsin fossil-fuel emissions before 2020 has prompted a backlash incountries from Norway to Barbados.
There are ��multiple pathways�� to prevent temperaturesfrom rising 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) withoutcountries strengthening pledges to reduce greenhouse gases by2020, U.S. climate envoy Jonathan Pershing said at UnitedNations climate talks last week.
��It��s a very risky assumption, too risky,�� Norway��s topclimate change envoy, Henrik Harboe, said in an interview. ��Weknow we are far below the recommendations of science.��
The question of when the world acts to contain globalwarming is at the heart of the talks in Durban, South Africa,where delegates from more than 190 nations are working on how totake the next steps in curbing emissions after the limitsoutlined in the Kyoto Protocol expire next year.
The UN says pledges to cut greenhouse gases need to doubleby 2020 to contain warming to 2 degrees above preindustriallevels. While scientists say a rise of 1.5 degrees may lead to��dangerous�� climate shifts, countries have agreed to takesteps to ensure warming doesn��t exceed the 2-degree mark.
��There are no credible scientific scenarios that willallow temperatures to be held under 2 degrees if action is takenafter 2020,�� Selwin Hart, an envoy from Barbados, said in aninterview in Durban.
Ice Ages
Over the past million years, warming of 4 degrees has beenenough to pull the world out of ice ages, according to theNational Aeronautics and Space Administration in Washington.Scientists say an average temperature rise of 1.5 degrees to 2.5degrees will trigger droughts and extreme weather, putting asmany as 30 percent of plant and animal species at risk ofextinction.
��Even with 2 degrees Celsius it��s not going to be a visionof paradise,�� Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the UN��sIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said in an intervi! ew.If em issions continue on a rising trajectory, the gain thiscentury could be as much as 6.4 degrees, he said.
U.S. envoy Todd Stern says it sees the goal as an��important and serious goal�� that should guide efforts tocontrol climate change.
��Look at Science��
��That is different from looking at it as an operationalcap that you must meet,�� Stern said at a briefing yesterday.��I think you have as you look at science and you see thetrajectory it ought to inform our sense of what needs to bedone. We don��t see it as akin to a national target.��
The U.S.��s position means ��much, much steeper reductions��will be needed by countries after 2020, Keya Chatterjee,director of climate negotiations for WWF, said in an interview.��It would really strain the edges of what would be doable.��
The biggest polluters are debating this week how and whento cut fossil fuel emissions.
The European Union said it won��t agree to continue underthe 1997 Kyoto Protocol, whose first phase of emissions cutsexpire next year, unless all countries agree to forge a newlegally binding agreement in 2015.
The U.S. says it won��t agree because China, the world��sbiggest emitter, and other fast-growing economies aren��t willingto do their equal share under such a pact. Instead, the U.S.suggests countries should focus on a voluntary measures reachedlast year.
��Dangerous for Humanity��
��A legally binding agreement after 2020 would bedisastrous for humanity, global temperature will rise at least 4degrees-plus,�� Bangladesh Environment Minister Hasan Mahmudsaid in an interview.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency said last monththat delaying a global deal to protect climate is a ��falseeconomy�� because costs to deal with increasing greenhouse gasesin the atmosphere will surge.
��You can postpone action, but the costs will be muchhigher, and the impacts would be far more serious. The costskeep going up for every year of delay,�� Pachauri said.
For every! $1 of i nvestment avoided before 2020, anadditional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensatefor the increased emissions, the IEA said in its World EnergyOutlook on Nov. 9.
If current pledged energy policies around the world areimplemented, the planet is on a trajectory for warming of 3.5degrees Celsius, it said.
��If you look at the science and you look at economicanalysis, what it tells you if you delay action by a couple ofyears, then it makes it much more expensive,�� Artur Runge- Metzger, the lead European Union envoy at the talks, said in aninterview.
Alden Meyer of the Union of Concerned Scientists say theU.S.��s position in effect means the world is ��taking a pass forthe next decade.��
��If we do that we��ve blown any chance of staying below 2degrees, maybe 3 degrees,�� he said.
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