Why Invest in Gold and Silver – Protecting Your Wealth With Precious Metals

In this article I will explain why Gold and Silver are the best options to protecting your wealth in this volatile world economy. As Investing Expert and #1 Best Selling Author Michael Maloney said, “The most dangerous investment is in U.S. Dollars.”

Since the beginning of civilization, Gold and Silver have been a safeguard of wealth. As world currencies fluctuate in value, these precious metals have always maintained their value, and are great options for anybody to hedge their wealth against inflation in our volatile economy.

Since the world financial crisis began, roughly in 2008, the Federal Reserve has been printing money like crazy, nearly doubling the amount of U.S. Dollars in existence to nearly $2 Trillion. This mass over-printing of money within a short period of time causes inflation. Due to inflation, the U.S. Dollar is actually becoming less valuable.

It’s my belief that since the U.S. Government and Federal Reserve have over-printed money in mass quantities since 2008, this has caused the jump in price of Gold and Silver. For example, in 1971, the average price of Gold was $40.62 per ounce. Just five years ago, in 2005, the average price of Gold was $444.74 per ounce. Today, in 2010, the price of Gold is $1276.20 per ounce. In 1971, the price of Silver was $1.39 per ounce. Just five years ago, in 2005, Silver was averaging $7.31 per ounce, and today, in 2010, Silver is $20.80 per ounce. That is a 287% increase in the price of Gold over a 5 year period and a 284% increase in Silver over the same time period.

As global economic conditions continue to deteriorate, more and more people are realizing that Gold and Silver have historically been an excellent safeguard of personal wealth. It is my belief that Gold and Silver are rock-solid, long-term investments. I advise everybody to continue to research the fantastic opportunities to invest in Precious Metals.

Dylan Wirtz is a Wealth Development Advisor located in Santa Barbara, California. He is an expert in Gold and Silver Investing. To learn more go to: http://www.DylanWirtz.com

Should You Invest in Groupon, LinkedIn and Other Hot Social Media Stocks?

The social media freshmen are entering their sophomore year. LinkedIn (Nasdaq: LNKD), Groupon (Nasdaq: GRPN) and Zynga (Nasdaq:ZNGA) have shaken off the post-IPO jitters, so now investors have the clearest picture yet of how large these companies can grow in the coming quarters and years. [block:block=16]I've written before about the dangers of investing in IPOs right out of the gate, especially for these social-media darlings. But now that the proverbial smoke has cleared, can we can get a clear view of the path ahead for these companies, and are shares even worth your investment? As a quick recap, LinkedIn, which operates a social media website for professionals, has been surging after fourth-quarter results were released. Meanwhile, daily-deal website Groupon and Zynga, which makes popular social media games for Facebook, pulled back after their numbers came out. Still, none of these stocks are bargains in terms of projected near-term results. Each stock trades for at least 50 times projected 2012 earnings and at least five times projected 2012 sales. Take a look at the table below. I've included other recent IPOs for comparison's sake.   At this point, investors need to ask themselves three key questions: •  Is each company building a sustainable platform to avoid becoming just another flash in the pan? •  What kind of five-year growth are they capable of achieving? •  And what will profits look like when they reach maturity? A real business model? With a market value of just under $11 billion, Groupon is the most richly-valued business model here. And perhaps for reasons associated with a possible need to raise capital in coming quarters, Wall Street's analysts are generally effusive about the company's long-term prospects.   Is this business model here to stay? Not only are Groupon's dozens of rivals working to steal market share in many local markets, but the merchants that use the service are expected to absorb a loss on these deals (or at best a miniscule profit), and they can hardly be considered to be willing long-term participants. The whole point of a Groupon promotion is to be a teaser, bringing in new customers who may not have visited the store before. It is not a way for companies to figure out how to lose money on every sale. To me, this still seems like a circa-2011/2012 business model that people will be reminiscing about by mid-decade. Yet the current large market value seems to ignore this possibility. It's also worth noting that Groupon, which used very aggressive accounting prior to the IPO, appears to continue to pump up its numbers. For example, the company derives a cash flow figure that capitalizes many costs that should be immediately expensed. That $0.83 a share 2013 profit forecast is a fiction only accountants could love. At least LinkedIn has the feel of a real business tool and not just a social fad. The site now helps people represent themselves in a way that personal blogs once did, and is seen as an essential tool for anyone who believes that social networking is a path to career advancement. And due to the automated nature of its business model, LinkedIn is positioned to generate solid profit margins as sales rise, unlike Groupon, which must pay an army of staffers to oversee all of the deals that are offered. Zynga may be the most dubious long-term business model. Not only does the company need to keep coming up with winning games (as existing popular games can have a fairly short shelf life), but the company is vulnerable to consumers deciding they want to spend their time on other leisure pursuits than Facebook games. It's not so troubling that Zynga trades for 37 times projected profits. It's that the company is worth $8.5 billion. In contrast, Hasbro (NYSE: HAS), which is a member of my $100,000 Real-Money Portfolio, has been in business since 1923 and had $4.3 billion in sales in 2011, yet is valued at about half as much as Zynga. In other words, Zynga is worth twice as much as Hasbro. On an equivalent price/2012 sales basis, Zynga is worth six times more than Hasbro. And unlike Hasbro, Zynga now looks like a great growth story, but I've got a hunch that Hasbro will still be an important toy and game maker long after Zynga has flamed out. What kind of growth? The second question is hardest for investors to gauge. In the early phase of the life cycle, these  companies can double sales annually. By the time they are prepping for an IPO, sales are rising 50% annually. A year or two after the IPO, 30% growth looks to be sustainable. But it's completely unclear whether these companies are only in the early innings of growth or actually a lot closer to the end. Groupon is expected to have $3 billion in sales by 2013. Does the company's market really grow beyond that? Or does anyone who wants to use Groupon already doing so by then? Is Zynga at risk of not growing at all if it fails to deliver hot new gaming titles? Investors should be asking these questions, although you rarely see them in analysts' reports. To be fair, Wall Street analysts have no idea either, so they simply pencil in strong growth in perpetuity. What kind of profits? I'm a fan of LinkedIn's business model, but am reflexively cautious about any recent IPO that is already worth $9 billion. Let's say you're bullish on the stock and think it will rise from the current $90 to $145 in the next five years (which is about 10% annual compound growth). And let's assume LinkedIn meets the current expectations for 2013, boosts sales by 20% in each of the next three years, and EPS rises by 25%. Here's what LinkedIn would be doing by 2016... At $145 a share, the company would be valued at around $14.3 billion, or more than six times projected 2016 sales. Said another way, the stock would be valued at almost 70 times projected 2016 profits. Even if the stock price went nowhere and sat at $90, then shares would still be worth more than 40 times 2016 profits. Risks to Consider: These are frothy stocks and they may be unwise to short if the market "melts up" from here. Tips>> These are exciting companies that have quickly built a sizeable following, but it's crucial not to confuse their popularity among consumers with their real-world valuations. These companies should grow at a fast pace in 2012, but their stocks are quite vulnerable to the eventual, inevitable cool-down in growth that all businesses see as they reach maturity.

Disaster Plans: Prepared for a Worst-Case Scenario?

The deadly tornadoes and flooding that affected many parts of the South and Midwest in April, the tragic earthquake in Japan, and a renewed sense of concern for national security after Osama bin Laden's death Sunday underscore the importance for property owners to be ready for a worst-case scenario.

Last week, insurance companies acted quickly to send extra adjusters and mobile units into states where tornadoes touched down, and tens of thousands of homeowners have filed claims. State Farm reported that it has received nearly 24,000 housing and commercial related claims in Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi, as well as nearly 20,000 auto claims in Tennessee and Alabama. Total insured losses from the tornadoes last week are expected to be more than $2 billion -- a high figure for tornado damage but still low compared to damage from hurricanes and earthquakes.

"The industry remains capable and prepared logistically and financially to handle these losses," said Robert Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute.

The cost to rebuild Tuscaloosa, Ala., alone, parts of which were completely leveled, is expected to be between $40 million and $45 million, said Steve Wells, president of the Alabama Municipal Insurance Corporation, a not-for-profit company that provides coverage for the state's municipalities. Wells said he expects more cities and towns -- many of which have been utterly demolished -- to contact the insurance company in the coming week as they get valuation on the damage incurred. The corporation sent $1 million to Tuscaloosa on Tuesday to start repairs to city infrastructure, although significant rebuilding efforts may take weeks or months to get started, Wells said.

"Our job is try to get the cities back up to running and looking normal as soon as possible," said Wells.

Only 10% of California Homes Are Insured for a Quake

For homeowners -- nearly 97% of whom carry insurance nationwide -- wind damage caused by a tornado or hurricane is generally under basic policies. However, some high-risk areas may require additional coverage. Annual premiums for homeowner insurance in Tornado Alley, a region that covers parts of several state across the central United States, tend to be higher than the national average of approximately $800 to account for the added risk from severe weather. #mini_module_blank { width: 269px; height:200px; border: none; float:right; margin:10px; font-size:12px;} #mini_module_blank img {border:none; width: 265px; height:131px; border: none; margin:0px; } #mini_module_blank #mini_main { margin: 0px; padding:0px; width:269px; height:206px; background: transparent url(http://www.aolcdn.com/travel/zing-background-no-photo)} #mini_module_blank #mini_item_header {padding:8px 0px; margin: 0px 20px; font-size:14px;} #mini_module_blank #mini_item {padding:4px 0px; margin: 0px 20px; border-bottom:1px dotted #CCCCCC;} #mini_module_blank a { color: #49A3CA; text-decoration:none; } #mini_module_blank a:hover { color: #F98419; text-decoration:underline;}Search Millions of Home ListingsView photos of homes for sale and apartments for rent on AOL Real EstateSee homes for saleSee rental listingsCheck out the latest real estate newsOn average each year, twisters account for $1.1 billion in damages to crops and properties, and cause 80 deaths, according to the Insurance Information Institute. Hurricanes tend to be less deadly but more costly than tornadoes, with a total average cost of $5.1 billion and 20 deaths per year, according to data from NOAA.

Flood and earthquake insurance are two major exceptions to basic homeowner insurance policies. In California, which is almost certain to have an earthquake of 6.7 magnitude or larger in the next 30 years, only one in 10 homes has earthquake insurance, according to the California Earthquake Authority. That leaves the vast majority of homeowners in the state unprepared, said Glenn Pomeroy, CEO of the CEA.

"It's a matter of when, not if," Pomeroy said about the odds of a quake the size of 1994's Northridge temblor hitting in the coming three decades. That seismic event, which struck the San Fernando Valley and injured thousands of people, caused $20 billion in damages.

The massive March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan ushered in the largest one-month growth in new policies from California Earthquake Authority: More than 7,000 new policies were created in March. Earthquake insurance policies vary from state to state, although in California, all insurers must offer it as an option, and the cost to homeowners varies widely based on location and property value.

Other Property Dangers

In the last decade, natural catastrophes as well as man-made disasters have cost the global insurance industry billions upon billions of dollars. Hurricane Katrina, which devastated coastal gulf areas and New Orleans in August 2005, is on record as the most expensive natural disaster to date, costing insurers $45 billion in today's dollars.The attacks against the World Trade Center in September 2001 cost more than $40 billion in 2010 dollars. It is estimated that losses from the Japan quake in March could add up to $35 billion, according to risk modeling company AIR Worldwide. That doesn't factor in the costs of cleaning up the nuclear contamination from damaged reactors that occurred in the wake of the tsunami.

In the last decade, floods have caused more than $24 billion in losses in the United States, according to the National Flood Insurance Program. Homeowners in high-risk areas can be required to carry flood insurance, which has an average cost of $600 per year. The government-subsidized insurance program, which was created in 1968 by Congress, offers policies to renters, homeowners and businesses. Currently, just over 5.5 million policies are in effect across the country, with the highest concentration in Florida, where there are 2.1 million policies, according to government data. [Learn more about homeowner flood insurance.]

"As we've seen from the damage caused by the recent tornadoes and severe storms that hit the Southeast, as well as flooding all across the country, natural disasters can be devastating," FEMA spokesman Brad Carroll said. "They can happen anytime, anywhere, and often without much warning. While we can't prevent natural disasters, there are steps we can take to get ready for them, such as purchasing flood insurance."

Nuclear accidents are not covered under homeowners insurance because the damage is so pervasive, said Dick Luedke, a spokesman for State Farm Insurance. However, damage incurred from terrorism-related events, including damage from fire, smoke or rioting, may be covered by standard policy, said Hartwig from the Insurance Information Institute. He added that small businesses are not likely to be covered for damage that stems from terrorist event, and they should confer with their providers. Most homeowner policies cover damage from fires, including wildfires, though the coverage can vary depending on location and risk. Notably excluded from most homeowner policies are landslides or mudslides.

Five Tips for Disaster Preparation

1. Know what your insurance covers. Check your policy and see where you are and are not covered, and what your exclusions are. Fill in the gaps with additional coverage if needed. Whether you live in a hail-prone area or coastal hurricane zone, make sure your coverage is up to date and included all the property you want to protect.

2. Inventory and document your belongings and property. In the event of a major disaster, the more detailed your records are, including receipts, inventories, photographs or videos, the more quickly your claim can be processed. Learn more about taking inventory at the Insurance Information Institute.

3. Determine your risk. FEMA provides diagnostic quizzes and worksheets to help property owners determine their level of risk for a natural disaster. The Red Cross provides information specific to a variety of disaster threats. The Centers for Disease Control provides detailed information about how to respond to chemical disasters.

4. Prepare an emergency kit and plan for your family. The government's Ready.gov website offers a complete list of supplies for a basic kit, which recommends a three-day supply of food and water for every member of the household.

5. Buy a hand-crank transistor radio (or battery-powered radios with extra batteries) to get news and information. Access to electricity, telephones and other communication systems may be limited after a major disaster. The Hurricane Store offers a wide selection of hand-powered devices.

Five "Extra" Moves to Make Right Now to Protect Your Financial Future

I hear from countless investors around the world every week. Many of them want to know what "else" they can do to protect their financial future, especially now that the markets could get ugly (again).

Here are a few quick thoughts:

1) Chart your course

A surprising number of investors tell me that things were going along just fine then - boom - one day they woke up and everything had turned into a disaster.

If only it were that simple. The truth is digging a hole takes time and a whole lot of effort. If you're in trouble now it's because you haven't been paying attention for a while.

Knowing what to do is only 10% of the game. The other 90% comes from having a plan.

I don't care if it's nothing more than on the back of an envelope or a Post-it like the ones that cover my desk. It's vitally important you have one.

Unfortunately, "Beating the S&P 500" doesn't qualify as a plan. Neither does "retiring in style." You have to plan for real-life goals.

For some people, this may be paying for a grandchild's education. For others it might mean building up $20,000 over five years to take that once-in-a lifetime trip, accumulating $300,000 to build a vacation home, or ensuring that you have $2,000-$10,000 a month to live on 20 years from now.

You have to be specific. That way you learn to control your money before it controls you. If you need help, find a competent financial advisor immediately and ask the right questions.

If you realize you can meet your goals by hitting singles, it makes no sense to constantly swing for the fences and risk striking out. Lower your risk and concentrate on the return of your money rather than the return on your money.

Not only will you sleep better, but chances are your returns will be more consistent for having done so.

2) Refinance your home (and everything else, too)

Interest rates have fallen for more than 30 years to near zero. They are unlikely to fall much further. If anything they are likely to rise. Nobody knows exactly when or how high they will rise, but that's not the point.

What's important to realize (and that many people have forgotten) is that the median 30-year mortgage rate is nearly 9%, or roughly 150% higher than the best rates available today. Even a minor uptick means you will lose huge amounts of purchasing power.

Obviously you have to pay closing costs every time you refinance, but the fees can be worth it if you plan to be in your house long enough to break even.

Here's how to run the numbers. Subtract your proposed new mortgage payment from your current mortgage payment. That's the amount you'll be saving every month by refinancing. Divide the closing costs by your savings. That's the number of months it will take to break even.

While you're at it, consider refinancing car loans, credit cards, student loans, appliance plans or anything else carrying a balance. Apply the same kind of breakeven analysis if you can.

Use the money you free up to pay down debt, pay for your children's education or anything else you might imagine.

My preference, of course, is that you invest it immediately and never look back. But I recognize that's not always possible in today's world. So do the best you can.

3) Re-examine your insurance plans

Conventional thinking is that you drop your life insurance plan once you retire on the assumption that you don't need it anymore and can therefore save the cash.

The problem most people overlook is that when a spouse dies, his or her pension benefits go away, too. Even if that doesn't happen, it's very common to see them substantially reduced.

Check with your insurance agent to make sure you've got your bases covered. Don't wait for an unpleasant surprise that could cripple you financially.

4) Build up an emergency fund

If you're retired, I think it's wise to set aside 2-5 years of living expenses. That way you can plan for the unexpected while also ensuring that you have enough cash set aside for insurance, medical bills and housing.

If you're still working and have a regular paycheck, you can hold less cash on the assumption that future income will offset the risks associated with a smaller emergency fund. Common wisdom suggests it's adequate to have at least 6 months' worth of cash on hand but I think 12 months is more appropriate given today's economic conditions.

Either way, the goal is to have enough cash on hand that you don't have to spend money you don't want to at an inopportune time or sell investments before you want to.

You don't have to start big. In fact, you can start as small as $5 or $10 a week. That way you'll get in the habit of setting aside money for the proverbial "rainy day." When it arrives, you'll be better prepared.

Just start. Immediately.

5) Pay off debt

This one seems pretty obvious, but you'd be amazed how many people I talk to who are still up to their eyeballs in other people's money.

Contrary to what the Ministry of Whitewash wants you to believe, debt is not the American way and it is NOT the ticket to our recovery. Not for the government, not for our nation, not for Europe and certainly not for people like you and me.

Taking on debt does not give you more spending power. It does not create prosperity nor is it the key to success. Debt is a quick way to dig your own grave.

Think about it. What these bastards in the "debt makes the world go round" department are saying is that they'd prefer to keep zombie banks alive and billions of credit cards out there in circulation because it will save companies. ..and Wall Street.... and the elections.

Why else would the regulators put up with credit card companies that are allowed to charge exorbitant rates at a time when the Fed has decided to keep interest rates near zero??!!

According to BankRate.com, the average rate on balance transfer cards is 16.15%. Cash back cards are 16.41%, while rewards cards average 15.47%. Even the "low-interest" card rate is an obnoxious 10.69%.

Adding insult to injury, an estimated 75% of all credit cards have a variable rate, which means that as your debt rises, your interest rates do, too. Miss a payment or have a financial hiccup and you're pretty much screwed even as those same companies I've just mentioned grow stronger.

No-siree Bob. You can do just fine without debt if you want to.

In closing, I'm sure you have a few things you'd like to add to this list. Please write to me at keith@moneymorning.com and let me know what advice you'd give other members of the Money Morning family.

I'll publish the best ideas right here.

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Money Morning: The Five Questions You Need to Ask Your Financial Advisor Right Now

The Great Setup I Live For as an Investor

This could be one of the greatest investing setups I have ever seen...

Back in November, I added shares of a popular athletic footwear and clothing company to my Stock of the Month portfolio.

  At the time, I only bought half of my intended position. The market had been running up, and I was hoping to get a better price point for the rest of my position.

Although the stock rose for nearly eight months, I finally got my entry point a few weeks ago. Here's the story...

In the past 10 years, Nike (NYSE: NKE) has been one of the most dominant retail companies on the planet. Since 2001, the company has grown every year but one, and from 2002 to fiscal 2012, Nike grew its revenue 143%.

As earnings moved up, so did its price per share. Investors who bought shares of this company in mid-2002 have seen a total return of about 300%.

But a little more than two weeks ago, the company hit a roadblock when it announced its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on June 29.

While the company grew revenue by 12% in the quarter ended March 31, earnings per share dropped 6% compared with the same quarter a year ago. As a result, Nike's stock price fell 9% in a single trading session.

But like all things, the drop in earnings shouldn't be taken at face value.

I worked for IBM (NYSE: IBM) during some of its more difficult years. There was one quarter when the company knew it was going to come up short on its earnings. IBM figured if it was going to miss, it was going to miss big -- and hopefully just once.

Every write-down, charge and new investment was crammed into that quarter. I was getting calls everyday asking if I had anything I needed to write-down. The company even ordered more pens.

To some extent, that appears to be what Nike did in its most recent fiscal fourth quarter.

Nike took a $24 million restructuring charge to streamline its operations in Western Europe. It accelerated its research and development spending on its new digital product line. The company even settled a customs fee from an emerging-market territory related to imports that occurred during the past four fiscal years.

But even when you add all that in, Nike still had a good quarter... just not as good as expected.

It grew revenue in every geography and product line. North American revenue grew 13%. Revenue from Central and Eastern Europe were up 20%. Even in Western Europe -- where debt and austerity are weighing on economies -- Nike's revenue was up 7%. And China may be slowing down, but Nike was still able to grow revenue by 14% in that competitive market.

There is no question Nike is facing some macroeconomic headwinds. Slower economic growth in Western Europe and China will be a challenge for Nike to overcome in the next three to six months.

But I truly believe Nike will navigate the macroeconomic headwinds better than its competitors. It will continue to invest in innovation during slower quarters -- precisely when its competitors have to cut back -- and gain market share.

Nike also has some major catalysts going for it right now.

For one, the 2012 Olympics start this month. Since 1984, the stock has beaten the S&P 500 six out of seven times during the two weeks of the summer games.

And in September, NFL players -- clad in Nike uniforms -- will take to the field for another season. Not only will this mean more jersey sales to fans, but it puts the company's logo in front of some of the biggest audiences in the world. In 2011, nine of the 10 highest-rated TV broadcasts were NFL-related.

Stocks to Watch: Stocks to watch Monday: Citigroup, Gannett

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) � Among the stocks that could see active trade in Monday�s session are Citigroup Inc., Gannett Co. and J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.

Citigroup C �is slated to report its second quarter earnings before the opening bell. The banking giant is expected to earn 89 cents a share on revenue of $18.89 billion, according to the average estimate of analysts polled by FactSet Research.

Click to Play U.S. Week Ahead: Citi, Google, Goldman earnings

A flood of large-cap companies release results next week, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Google, Microsoft and IBM. U.S. economic data also picks up, with June retail sales and industrial production, and the July Philly Fed.

Gannett GCI �is also on tap post quarterly results. The media company will post a profit of 53 cents a share on revenue of $1.32 billion if Wall Street�s best guesses are on the mark.

And J.B. Hunt JBHT �will earn 67 cents a share with sales of $1.31 billion if the trucking firm meets analyst expectations.

Other firms reporting quarterly numbers include Cintas Corp. CTAS , First Bancorp Inc. FNLC �and Human Genome Sciences Inc. HGSI .

United Continental Holdings Inc. UAL �could get a lift: Late Friday, the Association of Flight Attendants and the company announced they had reached a tentative deal on a contract extension for 10,000 workers.

But Emerson Radio Corp. MSN �might be in the crosshairs. On Friday, it reported sharp drops in both profit and revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter and full year.

Geithner Talks Up ’11 Budget, Bank Reform

Treasury Secretary Geithner is testifying on the President’s 2011 budget proposal at the moment in front the Senate Finance Committee, highlighting the proposed $5,000 tax credit to employees but also making the case for financial reform. (Live stream is here.)

“We need to take the savings of Americans and channel them to innovation,” rather than real estate speculation, Geithner remarks. He’s pushing hard on the Obama administration’s proposed fee on the banks to bring the cost of TARP, now at $117 billion, down to zero, he says.

Full text of Geithner’s prepared remarks is here, though he’s strayed somewhat from the script in this morning’s testimony.

Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia kicked off questioning by deploring the lack of support for clean coal development that he could show off to West Virginians.

Obtaining the Scoop on the Latest Digital Hearing Aids

Are you still a large fan of analog technologies when you listen to audio? The technologies still has its enthusiast base, but most people are switching above to digital and never looking back again. You are able to say the identical thing about the technology being used in listening to aids. Although analog was when king, too numerous superior options have place these older gadgets within the back again shelf. It is a digital planet; we just reside in it. Should you aren’t acquainted using the digital hearing aids, search over this checklist of designs and see what you are able to anticipate.

1. The open fit type. Open matches hearing gadgets employed to become relatively cumbersome, incredibly obvious along with a little embarrassing. Once these devices entered the digital age, they became a great deal simpler to handle. The most recent open match styles use tools that make them much more efficient and much less noticeable in public. They are extremely light and run on the twelve band frequency to make sure top efficiency. They are definitely component with the new wave.

2. Programmable, open match with directional microphone. When you visit an audiologist to have your hearing assessed, they are able to let you know numerous issues which ought to be programmed into the corrective device you ultimately commence putting on. This kind of gadget may be programmed specially for you, generating it fundamentally custom-made. They also come with double microphones, offering the sort of sound you would listen to on the stereo.

three. In the ear units. For the best of all of the digital devices, you may want to take a look at the ‘in the ear’ listening to aids. As soon as the device gets positioned within the ear, it is harder to detect and it operates with out wires, creating it a sleeker, much more contemporary gadget within the complete. One of the most fundamental types function on two channels and have an adjustable manage for the volume. Needless to say, these units can also be programmed to consumer specs.

four. Feedback reduction designs. As you transfer up the ladder with inside the ear units, you will see the gadgets which may reduce the amount of feedback you might be obtaining whilst listening for sounds. Functioning on 4 channels, in addition, it has the function of whisper detection. To get this done, a gadget should block out all of the other noises and hone in within the low speaking you might be attempting to hear. At times, it really is in everyone’s greatest interest if you don’t speak loudly and if you do aren’t spoken to loudly.

five. Echo cancellation capabilities. Listening to help customers have complained about echoes for a long time. Envision how unnerving it could be to get every little thing coming in with double the difficulty. Following a whilst, you would begin to go batty. This function cuts out that chance, although other functions make these devices transfer towards the leading of the line. For instance, the dampening feature for loud seems helps you avoid the piercing noises that will only unnerve you when they attain your ears.

Want to Learn About digital line detect ? http://www.digitallinedetect.net/

Costco vs. Wal-Mart: Who Wins the Stock Price Wars?

Headquartered in Issaquah, Washington, Costco (COST) reported fiscal year fourth quarter earnings Wednesday that beat street estimates only to see its shares slide. Although earnings were two cents better than estimated, revenues came in a little short. So far, the media is attributing Wednesday’s stock slide to the revenue miss and slightly slower September sales growth.

All in all, we feel that Costco turned in a good quarter and a strong recovery over calendar year 2009. Net earnings were up approximately 16% for the fiscal quarter and at $2.92 for the year, up 14.5% over 2009 earnings of $2.57. Therefore, on the surface everything looks fine. However, a deeper look at Costco’s lofty valuation is of concern, in our opinion.

Figure 1 below looks at Costco through the lens of our EDMP F.A.S.T. Graphs™ since 1997. Costco has grown earnings per share by 11.7% and offers a dividend yield of 1.3%. The black price line is currently above the earnings justified valuation line with a calculated fair value PE of 17.2. Therefore, we contend that Costco is overvalued with a PE ratio of 21.9.

Figure 1 COST 15yr. Growth Correlated to Price (Click to enlarge)

Figure 2 below looks at Wal-Mart (WMT) whose Sam’s Clubs stores are a major competitor of Costco. Wal-Mart has grown earnings faster and more consistently than Costco, yet only trades at a PE ratio of 13.8 versus Costco’s PE of 21.9. Wal-Mart pays a higher dividend yield than Costco, but does have a little more debt. Nevertheless, it seems odd that Wal-Mart shares currently trade at such a discount to Costco.

Figure 2 Wal-Mart 15yr. Growth Correlated to Price (Click to enlarge)

Conclusion

Costco certainly had a decent quarter and its long-term record of earnings growth is also very solid. However, Wal-Mart has done better on all counts. Yet it sells at a much lower valuation and even offers a higher dividend yield. Therefore, it would be hard for us to buy Costco today when Wal-Mart is available at more than a third off.

We believe that you make your money on the buy side, and getting valuation correct is critical. Earnings growth is important because that’s what will generate the future stream of income that investors will be rewarded by. However, if you overpay, then good operating results can be for naught.

Disclosure: No position at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation.

Disk Drives: Fundamentals Weakening, Valuations Cheapening

So, my headline doesn’t quite rhyme,� but you get the idea: the Street is faced with a serious conundrum when it comes to the disk-drive stocks. On the one hand, estimates are coming down, and there are worries that both the June and September quarters could disappoint. And on the other hand…the stocks sure do look cheap.

The deterioration of hard-drive fundamentals in recent weeks has driven a slew of analysts to bring down their EPS estimates and price targets, and we got another dose of that today:

  • Wedbush analyst Kaushik Roy repeated his Neutral ratings on both Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) today, chopping his STX target to $20, from $23, and reducing his WDC target to $42, from $48. Roy notes that pricing in the June quarter was slightly more aggressive than in the March quarter; ergo he trimmed his estimates. For the June quarter, he goes to 84 cents from 87 cents for STX, and to $1.44 from $1.48 for WDC. On the other hand, he writes that “if people are short” the two stocks, he recommends covering, with both stocks down around 20% since mid-April. But he adds that he will monitor the pricing and supply/demand environment before getting more positive on the stocks.
  • Gleacher & Co. analyst Dinesh Moorjani repeats his Buy rating on Seagate today, but trims his target to $22, from $24, and cuts his estimate for the quarter to 71 cents from 85 cents. His view is that a reset of expectations is now behind us, and expectations for the September quarter have become overly cautious.

Rodman & Renshaw analyst Ashok Kumar writes that he thinks the total available market in the quarter for the drive makers was at or below the guidance level of 156-161 million units offered by both STX and WDC; he adds that the competitive environment “turned aggressive” towards quarter end, with OEM pricing down high single digits, and channel prices down double digits. Kumar thinks it is too early to buy the stocks, writing that he looks to turn more constructive once supply and demand are back in balance.

Meanwhile, the stocks trade at remarkably low P/E multiples, even for the historically low multiple drive industry: STX trades for 4.3x expected June 2010 EPS, while WDC at 5.2x.

In today’s trading:

  • STX is down 32 cents, or 2.2%, to $14.66.
  • WDC is down 31 cents, or 1%, to $32.38.

The Smartest Advice In Buying Real Estate

The purchase of real estate is life-changing, and can cause stress. But, if you take the time to educate yourself about the process, your experiences will be much less stressful. The advice below should give you a good preview of your potential situation to make your home-buying experience a good one.

While shopping for a new home, it is very important that you not be tempted into a purchase based on aesthetic reasons. You should base your decision on the condition and structure of the house. If you base your decision to buy on decor, you might not see a significant problem that will become costly later.

Homes that need extensive repairs or renovations are often sold for cheaper than other homes. These fixer-uppers allow you to save more money from the outset, then invest in the property as you are able. You can use the money you saved to improve the home in a way that truly suits you. At the same time those improvements will likewise increase the value of your home. So try to focus on what the house could be, or its potential, as opposed to looking at the negatives involved with its current state. Your dream house could be hiding beneath some dingy carpet and outdated wallpaper.

When you are ready to make an offer on a home, ask the sellers to consider financial incentives such as help with any closing costs. For example, you could ask for a seller to buy down your interest rates for a limited period of time. Some sellers may not want to give you a price break on the home if you ask for financial perks.

Location is especially important when you are purchasing a property for your business. Be sure you set up your business in a sound location that is stable and likely to grow. When you open a business that is located in a poor neighborhood, most likely you will not have a large pool of customers. Consult your real estate agent to find the best place to open your shop.

Hiring an an attorney who specializes in foreclosure real estate can really help to protect you from making costly mistakes. Because complications can come up during a foreclosure process, it is a good call to have your own legal representative to look out for your best interest. You could save a lot later on because of this.

There has never been a better time to start investing in real estate. Property values are very low now because of the crash in the housing market. This is now a good time to get out of your apartment and into a house. The downward trend is an aberration when you look at house prices over the long term. Therefore, you will probably make money on your investment after ten years.

Purchasing a property is perhaps the largest financial decision of your life, as well as one of the most important. The information you have learned in this article should greatly facilitate your ability to profitably invest in real estate.

Allow our group of expert real estate agents find Boise real estate here to match your special needs.

Good News for Aastrom Bio: IMPACT-DCM Trials Show Proof-of-Concept

This morning at the Sixth International Conference on Cell Therapy for Cardiovascular Disease, Aastrom Bio (ASTM) presented interim data from the first 40 patients at 6-months from the company’s IMPACT-DCM program. As a reminder, the Phase II IMPACT-DCM (surgical) program looked at the safety and efficacy of direct injection of Tissue Repair Cells (TRCs) into damaged areas of the myocardium. The trial was a prospective, open-label program with a crossover extension study for the control patients.

Baseline patient characteristic show a good distribution between both ischemic and non-ischemic subjects, with the majority of patients having significantly impaired ejection fraction (<30%) and are classified as NYHA III. These are “no option” patients heading towards transplant.

IMPACT-DCM Baseline Characteristics …

(Click to enlarge)

Proof-Of-Concept Clearly Evident …

Proof-of-Concept is clearly evident by analyzing the data. Given the small size of the trial, no results are statistically significant, but the signs point to a quality of life benefit with TRCs. This will be explored further in a larger-scale phase IIb program to start later in 2011. The data notes an improved outcome for the ischemic DCM patients vs. the non-ischemic DCM patients.


(Click to enlarge)

… Safety Assessment Looks Clean …

Given the baseline characteristics of very sick patients, that fact that there were no discontinuations due to adverse events and that events were pretty similar between the control and TRC group is highly encouraging. Post-surgery, there was no difference in the incidence of AEs across the TRC and control groups.

(Click to enlarge)

We think the data above are clearly indicative of efficacy. Management will present full data from this program at the 12-month timeframe during the second quarter 2011.

… Cather-DCM Continues …

Management is also continuing enrolling patients in the phase II Catheter-DCM study to determine the safety and tolerability of administering expanded autologous cell therapy via a catheter (J&J’s NOGA) to patients with heart failure due to dilated cardiomyopathy. This trial completed enrollment at 23 patients in December 2010. Interim 6 month data from the Catheter study should be available in the third quarter 2011. The next step in DCM will be for Aastrom to meet with the U.S. to outline the design for a phase IIb study.

We expect the Phase IIb program will be a fully-control catheter program using the NOGA device. The trial will most likely seek to enroll about 100-150 patients with clearly objective endpoints such as heart function, 6-minute walk test, VO2 max, exercise capacity, or MACE. This will be large enough to clearly provide a roadmap for the phase III program, which we expect management will secure an SPA. We remind investors that the FDA has granted Orphan Drug designation to Aastrom for use of its TRCs in DCM. We are tentatively modeling this program to start in the calendar fourth quarter 2011, with data late 2012.

DCM Backgrounder

DCM is a condition in which the heart becomes weakened and enlarged, and cannot pump blood efficiently. The expansion of the heart and the decreased function results in poor blood circulation and affect the lungs, liver, and other body systems. In patients with DCM, the left or right ventricular systolic pump function of the heart becomes impaired, leading to progressive cardiac enlargement and hypertrophy, a process called remodeling.

There are an estimated 200k to 250k people living (prevalence) in the U.S. with DCM, with roughly 20,000 new cases (incidence) each year. About one in three cases of congestive heart failure (CHF) is due to DCM. The 1-year survival rate for a patient diagnosed with DCM is roughly 75%. The 5-year survival rate drops to only 30% because many patients with DCM go un-diagnosed until the disease has progressed to the most severe stages.

As a general rule for idiopathic DCM, after 1-year, 1/3rd of patients exhibit improved cardiac function, 1/3rd have stable cardiac dysfunction, and 1/3rd progress to significant cardiac dysfunction. These 1/3rd that progress to severe cardiac dysfunction will require a heart transplant.

Standard of care for patients with DCM is often to treat secondary co-morbid conditions such as hypertension or renal failure. As such, patients with DCM are often prescribed angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, diuretics, beta-blockers, and sometimes digitalis. Anticoagulants may also be used. Artificial pacemakers and left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) may be used in patients with intra-ventricular conduction delay, and implantable cardioverter-defibrillators in those at risk of arrhythmia. These forms of treatment have been shown to improve symptoms and reduce hospitalization. They can cost upward of $75,000 each, and many patients will require re-implantation or an upgraded or new device in a year.

However, for patients with advanced disease who are refractory to medical therapy, cardiac transplantation is the only option. LVAD are commonly known as a "bridge to transplantation.” The problem however, and the reason this is such as a significant medical problem, is that only about 2,000 heart transplants are done in the U.S. each year. That means of the estimated 150k NYHA Class 3 or 4 patients with dilation, over 95% will never get a transplant. Accordingly, this is why mortality rates start to rise dramatically after a patient has been diagnosed with DCM.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Stocks to Watch: Stocks to watch Monday: Cal-Maine, AOL

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) � Among the stocks that could see active trade in Monday�s session are Cal-Maine, AOL and KB Home.

Click to Play U.S. week ahead

Consumer confidence report�s in focus as first-quarter earnings season approaches, reports MarketWatch�s Laura Mandaro reports. AP photo

Cal-Maine CALM �is slated to report its fiscal third quarter earnings before the start of trading. It is expected to earn $1.02 a share on revenue of $311 million according to the average estimate of analysts polled by FactSet Research.

Late Friday, a report surfaced that AOL AOL �has hired investment bank Evercore Partners to find a buyer for its portfolio of more than 800 patents, and to explore other strategic options. The Bloomberg News story noted that AOL has also been approached by private equity firms Providence Equity Partners Inc., TPG Capital and Silver Lake.

KB Home KBH �could be in the crosshairs again. The company was down as much as 13% at one point during the Friday session, hit by a decline in orders, then closed with a loss of about 8%. It lost another 1% after hours.

Nokia: More Momentum on Win 8 Later This Year, Says Nomura

As I mentioned earlier this morning, Nomura Equity Research’s telecoms analyst Stuart Jeffrey related today that he was “disappointed” with what he saw from Nokia (NOK) at the Mobile World Congress telecom show that went on the last three days in Barcelona, Spain.

Nevertheless, Jeffrey also offers some hope for later this year, when Microsoft‘s (MSFT) “Windows 8” will presumably shipping on Nokia phones.

One of the disappointments for Jeffrey this week was that Nokia’s latest offering of phones running Microsoft’s Windows Phone, called the “Lumia 610,” is priced as he expected, at �189, or $250 in U.S. dollars, but that is higher than the $200 that he thinks it should have been priced at to move units. “We do not consider a $250 price point competitive given the sub-$200 prices of very capable Android phones that have come and are coming to market.”

As for the cheaper “Asha” devices, Jeffrey was disappointed they don’t yet feature touch screens, “which we consider essential to battle both lower-priced Android devices and Samsung�s Electronics‘s (005930KS) low-end Bada platform.”

The “808 PureView,” with a 41-megapixel camera sensor, is “amazing,” concedes Jeffrey, especially as it takes very good low-light images, which is unusual for a high-density sensor that isn’t in a tripod-mounted camera. But the fact that it runs the older Symbian operating system, and costs �480, or roughly $639, are both factors that will limit it to low volumes of sales. Still, it’s important for Nokia that it can bring this technology to Windows down the road, he adds:

We view this Pure View technology as a compelling differentiator for future Nokia Windows Phone devices (perhaps from Windows Phone 8) � especially if Nokia can make the camera a little thinner still.

Not being mentioned by Microsoft during the Windows 8 kick-off yesterday was also a disappointment for Nokia. However, the stock could turn around later this year, writes Jeffrey, as Windows 8 developments in the phone area become clearer:

We believe that Windows Phone 8 will launch in September or October, that this will come at the same time as Microsoft launches Windows 8 and Windows on ARM, and that this combination together with a revamped cloud offering will make the Microsoft ecosystem appear much more competitive � especially in relation to Android � than it does currently. Moreover, we also believe that Nokia expects to ship WP8 devices in volume in Q4. If our information and assumptions prove correct, then Nokia is likely to exit the year with positive momentum. We believe investors will focus on the potential turnaround story and expect this to possibly drive a strong stock performance late in the year.

Jeffrey maintains a Reduce rating on shares of Nokia.

Update: On the other hand, R.W. Baird‘s Will Power, who has a Neutral rating on Nokia shares, is encouraged by the “buzz” at the Nokia booth and what he saw:

We came away impressed with Nokia’s new Lumia devices, and the potential for longer-term differentiation relative to Android, particularly when combined with reinvigorated innovation at Nokia. That said, competitive pressures from Android at the low- to mid-end appear to be accelerating, which is likely to pressure results for at least several quarters.

Nokia shares today are down 2 cents, or 0.4%, at $5.27.

we also believe that Windows Phone 8 will launch in September or October, that this will come at the same time as Microsoft launches Windows 8 and Windows on ARM, and that this combination together with a revamped cloud offering will make the Microsoft ecosystem appear much more competitive � especially in relation to Android � than it does currently. Moreover, we also believe that Nokia expects to ship WP8 devices in volume in Q4. If our information and assumptions prove correct, then Nokia is likely to exit the year with positive momentum. We believe investors will focus on the potential turnaround story and expect this to possibly drive a strong stock performance late in the year.

Knightsbridge Tankers Limited Outruns Estimates Again

Knightsbridge Tankers Limited (Nasdaq: VLCC.F  ) reported earnings on Feb. 9. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), Knightsbridge Tankers Limited beat expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue expanded significantly and GAAP earnings per share expanded significantly.

Margins increased across the board.

Revenue details
Knightsbridge Tankers Limited booked revenue of $24.9 million. The three analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ predicted a top line of $23.7 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 15% higher than the prior-year quarter's $21.6 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.39. The five earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ forecast $0.36 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.39 for Q4 were 56% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.25 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 70.6%, 650 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 43.8%, 940 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 38.0%, 1,020 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $21.3 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.34.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $84.0 million. The average EPS estimate is $1.17.

Investor sentiment
Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Knightsbridge Tankers Limited is hold, with an average price target of $17.13.

Over the decades, small-cap stocks, like Knightsbridge Tankers Limited have provided market-beating returns, provided they're value priced and have solid businesses. Read about a pair of companies with a lock on their markets in "Too Small to Fail: Two Small Caps the Government Won't Let Go Broke." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add Knightsbridge Tankers Limited to My Watchlist.

Street Brushes Off French Downgrade, Feeble Bank Earnings, For Now

The S&P 500 could not hold the 1,300 level Tuesday, but given the recent eurozone downgrades from S&P and a soft earnings season from big U.S. banks the fact that stocks rallied at all was something of a surprise.

In what may be a sign that the year-to-date rally lacks conviction, the 10-year Treasury has hardly sold off with a yield still sitting well below 2% at 1.86%. That despite an advance in the major equity averages that saw the S&P pick up another 5 points to close at 1,294 Tuesday.

The continuing advance comes in the face of a slew of eurozone downgrades Friday, including the loss of France�s AAA rating, and weak results from U.S. banks like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, which booked fourth-quarter earnings that fell 23% and 11% from a year ago, respectively. Wells Fargo had a better report, with profits up 20.5%, but expectations are muted for the next reports out of the chute, including Goldman Sachs Group Wednesday.

To Seth Setrakian, co-head of equities at First New York Securities, the seasonal trends that typically boost the market in January are running out of steam and weak financial earnings could be the early drumbeat of a coming retreat.

�Stocks are cheap if you believe the �E�,� Setrakian says, referring to the earnings denominator of the price-to-earnings ratio. The problem comes if earnings growth, already expected to be weaker than in recent quarters, falls short of expectations. �Complacency is very high,� he warns and when people are dabbling for quick moves in speculative stocks it can be a signal that there is not enough healthy fear in the market.

One example: Sears Holdings. The retailer�s shares, hit hard since the news in late December that it will close more than 100 stores, shot up 9.5% Tuesday on speculation over a possible buyout. �It�s people taking a shot,� Setrakian says, �if something was happening you�d buy the bonds,� which were little changed.

On the topic of European downgrades, government officials got out ahead of the S&P downgrade of France and others Friday � a �brilliant� move in Setrakian�s view � making the cut seem like a non-event when it actually came through. Europe�s problems are still far from fixed though, and while the downgrades may have had little market impact initially they may complicate bailout efforts and give still AAA-rated Germany even more bargaining power to demand stiff austerity measures in return for any additional funding to peripheral countries.

Microsoft: UBS Ups Target to $36 on Blizzard of Product Refreshes

UBS Securities’s Brent Thill this morning reiterates a a Buy rating on shares of Microsoft (MSFT), while raising his price target to $36 from $33, writing that Microsoft’s upcoming updates to its enterprise products should be a “powerful refresh cycle,” especially given how Microsoft has changed some of its pricing terms.

The updates this year include “Windows Server 8,” “SQL Server ’12,” “Office 15,” and “System Center 2012.”

Among the changes that Thill sees as key are the change in pricing of SQL Server to a “per-core” licensing model, meaning the customer pays by each CPU core on a server processor on which the database is run.

“SQL’s shift to per-core pricing which means a standard SQL user will see a 20-25% price increase and some customers deploying on higher-end processors (10+ cores) could see licensing costs double,” writes Thill.

Moreover, Office 15 will come at the same times as updates of all the major Microsoft corporate products it works with, including “SharePoint,” “Exchange,” “Lync,” and “Office 365.”

All that could produce EPS of $3.05 in the fiscal year ending June of 2013, Thill writes. That would be above the $3.01 consensus on the Street.

Thill writes that the Street’s operating margin assumption of 37.8% is too low for a year in which the operation system, Windows 8, is debuting.

Lastly, Thill sees Microsoft getting margin expansion, the way it did during the Windows 7 introduction, given that the stock is too cheap relative to the benchmark:

With central bank liquidity events and improving domestic macro conditions over the past few months the S&P 500 trades at 13.4x consensus CY12 EPS $106. MSFT�s CY12 earnings multiple has risen +25% YTD however remains at a 15% discount to the S&P 500 multiple at 11.3x CY12 EPS.

Microsoft shares today are down 24 cents, or 0.7%, at $32.05.

Fin

An Economic Review of an Interesting Monday

Some quick thoughts on a fairly interesting start to this week.

The Dodd Financial Reform Plan

It’s out, all 1,300 plus pages. That’s the Chris Dodd blueprint for financial peace in our time. Why oh why do these guys not embrace brevity. Could it be that there are some devils hiding in all of the details? There is a plethora of comment in the blogosphere so I’ll try and not add to a surfeit of opinion.

I do want to direct you to one rather brilliant thought that John Carney offered Monday. John recounts the serial Fed failures that occurred during the crisis. He goes on to point out that it makes little sense for that institution to be given expanded oversight of non-bank financial institutions given past performance. As he notes, about all we will accomplish is to spread bad policy further into the financial system.

Spreading the Fed’s authority risks making this problem of market homogenization even worse. Hedge funds and insurance companies escaped the financial crisis intact, largely because they weren’t subject to the same regulators whose views on prudence so damaged the banks. Subjecting a broader range of financial firms to the Fed’s market views will create more systemic risk, leaving more firms in vulnerable if the Fed gets it wrong again.

The new powers being proposed for the Fed would allow it to order financial firms to “reduce risk.” Which is to say, the Fed’s view of risk will even more directly control the financial system. The Fed will be able to impose its views of risk on a broader range of financial firms. But that is exactly what regulators thought they were doing when they incentivized banks to buy up mortgage backed securities through sliding-scale capital requirements.

In short, the regulators’ views of prudent banking got us into this mess. Allowing the Fed to fail upward is just a recipe for another—likely worse—crisis.

Carney is dead right. Let’s not bet the ranch on the Fed or any other regulator for that matter getting it right every time. One lesson to take away from all of this is that the technocratic class failed badly. Limiting their reach isn’t a bad idea at all.

Krugman Declares War on China

PaulKrugman let the Chinese have it with both barrels Sunday. He suggested – no, he did a bit more than suggest – that the time had come to call the Chinese to account over their management of the renminbi/dollar exchange rate. He didn’t mess around with his prescription for curing the problem if the Chinese don’t listen to us.

But if sweet reason won’t work, what’s the alternative? In 1971 the United States dealt with a similar but much less severe problem of foreign undervaluation by imposing a temporary 10 percent surcharge on imports, which was removed a few months later after Germany, Japan and other nations raised the dollar value of their currencies. At this point, it’s hard to see China changing its policies unless faced with the threat of similar action — except that this time the surcharge would have to be much larger, say 25 percent.

I don’t propose this turn to policy hardball lightly. But Chinese currency policy is adding materially to the world’s economic problems at a time when those problems are already very severe. It’s time to take a stand.

The guy has a point but it seems to me that he has gone around the bend on this one. Yeah, we need to see an end to their game but now probably isn’t the time to be sending seismic shocks through a pretty fragile global economy. The problem isn’t going to yield to overnight solutions or draconian threats. It can be worked out if all involved maintain an even keel.

Why people continue to suggest that this loose cannon would be an appropriate candidate for Treasury Secretary or a position with the Fed is a mystery to me.

Real Estate

If you think that residential real estate is on the mend and the worst is behind us, here is a sobering slap in the face for you. Diana Olick points out that things are getting worse faster than the feds fixes can mend them. Check out her blog for a reality check (that’s a good but accidental pun on her blog — Realty Check).

And just to rub a little salt into the wound, Calculated Risk has these comments from Chris Thornburg on the $2.3 billion gift that Congress gave the home builders.

[Christopher Thornberg] said the net operating loss carryback extension and expansion will do nothing to mend the housing market.

“Of course not. They’re not building any homes; there’s still too many of them kicking around,” Christopher Thornberg, a principal at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles, told SNL. “Permits, starts are still flat; they’re still at a bottom. It’s a bailout. It’s a bailout for builders. It’s a bailout for Robert Toll. They’re bailing out Robert Toll. Repeat after me, they are bailing out Robert Toll. What’s wrong with this picture?”

When asked whether there were any positives to come out of the net operating loss carryback extension and expansion, Thornberg said, “No, no, no, no, no, no, no. No. Nothing. There’s nothing to build; there’s an oversupply. If anything, they’re making it worse because they’re encouraging construction when we need to burn off our existing supply first.”

There’s a lot more in the CR post. It will dispel any notion you may have that responsible responses to our problems have or will emanate from Washington.

Health Care

Finally, here’sMegan McArdle admitting that she has no idea which way the vote on ObamaCare is going to go, but that’s only the beginning of the beginning on this issue. She suggests that the fate of the bill will possibly be the same as the one that befell the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act of 1988. If you missed that one, the furor over it caused it to be repealed in 1989. She poses an interesting question as to what might transpire if things do proceed down that road.

That seems like the not-unlikely follow up, either from terrified Dems or a brand-spanking new Republican Congress. Would Obama dare veto it? When there’s no longer an unpopular Democratic Congress to hide behind? One hopes, for the good of the country. But while so far the president has been enthusiastically urging members to lean into the strike zone and take one for the team, I’ve seen little indication that he’s willing to risk his own job.

Let me know if you think we can get any of this sorted out properly. Believe it or not, I do, but I’ve been wrong about so much for the past couple of years that if I were you I wouldn’t put much faith at all in my opinion.

Pack Up, Move Out of Equity Residential

Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR), the largest publicly traded owner of multifamily properties in the U.S., hit a 52-week high of $63.88 back in July, only to fall back below $60 with the August pummeling of the markets. Shareholders have had a good run the past decade, achieving an annual total return of 9.8% — 795 basis points higher than the S&P 500 — and currently working on a third consecutive year of positive returns.

Overall, business is good for Sam Zell�s baby. The question is whether this success continues. That I don�t know. What I can tell you are three reasons you should consider selling its stock.

Funds From Operations

Real estate investment trusts use this metric to gauge the true profitability of its properties by adding back depreciation and amortization, which are non-cash charges, to its earnings. According to Equity Residential�s website, its stock price trades at 27.4 times FFO, about equal to its peers. At least from this perspective, its stock is not expensive.

Digging deeper into its earnings, however, we see that its second-quarter FFO per share was $0.58; unchanged year-over-year and two cents lower than the consensus estimate. This despite a 5.2% increase in apartment rents the past 12 months through the end of June. In such an ideal situation, you�d like to see FFO rising.

Making matters worse, it sold $1 billion in real estate in Q2, and that will reduce earnings further until it can replace those properties with new acquisitions, which will take time. As part of its Q2 announcement, it lowered full-year FFO between $2.40 and $2.45 per share. This pushed 11 analysts to follow suit, dropping the estimate for 2011 to $2.43 per share from $2.46. It�s possible these numbers will drop some more in the next couple of quarters. This likely will put downward pressure on its stock.

Cap Rate

For those unfamiliar with the term, cap rate is the rate of return from a real estate investment based on expected income. Private real estate investor Jim Brzeski recently wrote an article for Seeking Alpha that calculated Equity Residential�s implied cap rate, which is the net operating income of its portfolio of apartments divided by the cost to own them. For net operating income, Brzeski used $1.2 billion, which is the annualized figure based on $305 million in the second quarter. The cost to own is $27 billion, its enterprise value. Using these figures, we get an implied cap rate of 4.4%.

Brzeski believes this is much too low and that public REIT investors are overpaying for their real estate returns. I�d have to agree. Recently, I wrote about one of Equity Residential�s peers, AvalonBay Communities (NYSE:AVB), recommending investors sell the stock because it was too expensive. While I didn�t examine AvalonBay�s cap rate, I�m sure you�ll find it�s not much better.

Yield

Here we have one of the biggest apartment owners in the country, and yet its funds from operations are less than they should be. Further, despite obtaining near-record prices for the $1 billion in properties sold, it appears investors are paying an unreasonable premium for its real estate. All of this trickles down to shareholders who currently receive a yield of 2.3%, 71 basis points less than its peers and the worst return in a decade. With its stock trading higher than ever, income investors really should consider cheaper alternatives.

Euro at 4-Month High on Interest Rate Promise

The implied promise of a rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) in April sent the euro soaring on Monday to more than $1.40, as investors welcomed signs that the ECB would take more direct steps to deal with inflation.

While the joint currency had fallen a bit on the news of the Greek devaluation by Moody’s and concerns over rising oil prices, it had stayed strong since last week’s surprise statement by Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, that that body would most likely increase interest rates next month. Analysts had not expected action on that front till the fourth quarter.

Reuters reported that apparent buying from Middle East accounts buoyed the currency, with accelerating gains coming from triggered stop-loss orders as the currency hit first $1.4005 and then $1.4025. However, it stalled before it reached a $1.4050 options barrier.

Richard Wiltshire, chief foreign exchange dealer at ETX Capital, said of the euro’s rise, "Sentiment is bullish at the moment and we could see a test of the 1.4080/00 area." He added, "The euro will stay bid on any dips ahead of April's rate announcement. I would assume they can't change their rhetoric, and we have seen a growing number of ECB officials talking about rate hikes sooner rather than later."

The promise of a rate increase has encouraged investors to set aside concerns about rising oil prices, unrest in the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) area, and downgrades of Greece by Moody’s on Monday and Spain’s outlook by Fitch on Friday.

Niels Christensen, currency strategist at Nordea in Copenhagen, said of the optimism, "There's a bit of bad news with the Greece downgrade and Ireland wanting to renegotiate [its] bailout and there's some focus on this, but it's too early for concerns about sovereign debt to really come back and hurt the euro."

Wausau Paper Goes Negative

Wausau Paper (NYSE: WPP  ) reported earnings on Feb. 6. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), Wausau Paper met expectations on revenues and earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue shrank slightly and GAAP earnings per share shrank to a loss.

Margins shrank across the board.

Revenue details
Wausau Paper booked revenue of $252.7 million. The three analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ looked for revenue of $254.6 million. Sales were 2.9% lower than the prior-year quarter's $260.2 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions.

EPS details
Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.04. The four earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ averaged $0.04 per share on the same basis. GAAP EPS were -$0.58 for Q4 compared to $0.31 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Figures may be non-GAAP to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was -6.6%, 1,840 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was -14.7%, 1,700 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -11.4%, 1,720 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $209.5 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.05.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $831.3 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.40.

Investor sentiment
Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Wausau Paper is outperform, with an average price target of $7.67.

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  • Add Wausau Paper to My Watchlist.

It takes a lot to get me to write about Kim Kardashian. Let alone to come to her defense.

But this week a pressure group in California, campaigning for higher taxes on the rich, has done just that.

The so-called "Courage Campaign," which wants to raise California's top tax rate from 10.3%, has come out with a video arguing that Kardashian is paying way too little tax. See it here.

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The video, in the way of the Internet, has "gone viral," a term that is ironically appropriate. It's like a cold that people are passing around, entirely bypassing their brains.

The group says "Kim Kardashian made more than $12 million in 2010, but she only paid 1% more in taxes than a middle-class Californian" (earning, they estimate, $47,000).

I'm sorry. I don't care where you stand politically, or on the topic of Kim Kardashian. But this is nonsense, and I have to call it out.

Why?

Three reasons.

First, the campaign has the Californian tax rates wrong.

Let's accept, for the sake of argument, the campaign's estimates are right about Kim Kardashian's income, and that of that of the average middle-class Californian family.

But someone earning $47,000 a year wouldn't pay "9.3%" state income tax. That's just their marginal rate the tax on the last dollar earned. That rate only kicks in once your income crosses $46,766, if you are single, and $93,500 if you're married.

On most of their income, they are paying much lower rates, starting at just 1%.

According to the State of California's official tax publication, a single taxpayer earning $47,000 in taxable income in 2010 would have paid just $2,200 in tax. That's an average rate of 4.7%, not 9.3%.

(The "millionaire" 10.3% rate on the likes of Kim Kardashian kicks in over $1 million.)

Second, the Courage Campaign is mixing up two different things: The tax rate and the actual amount of taxes paid.

These are totally different.

Kim Kardashian isn't just paying a higher tax rate than a middle-class person. She's also paying it on a much, much bigger income. The net result is that she is paying vastly more in actual taxes.

Based on the Californian income-tax schedule, if she earned $12 million in 2010 she would have paid about $1.23 million in state taxes.

The middle-class family: $2,200.

In other words, based on the Courage Campaign's own numbers, Kim Kardashian would have paid about 56,000% more in taxes than a middle-class Californian, not "1% more."

Oops!

And then there's the third problem.

Even though the Courage Campaign talk about "taxes," they are only talking about state taxes. And those make up just a small share of total taxes yours, mine, and Kim Kardashian's.

Most, alas, go to the federal government.

Once again, let's do the math.

And let's keep it very simple, by ignoring phase-outs and deductions and exemptions and so on.

Based on the calculations above, if Kim Kardashian earned $12 million and paid $1.23 million in taxes to Sacramento, that would leave $10.77 million left over. Someone reporting that amount in taxable ordinary income to Uncle Sam would have to pay $3.75 million in federal income taxes.

That would take Kardashian's total tax bill to $5 million.

That middle-class Californian? They're paying $2,200 to Sacramento, and another $7,400 to Washington.

Total tax bill: $9,600.

Bottom line? If Kim Kardashian pays $5 million in taxes, and the middle-class person pays $9,600, Kardashian has paid 52,000% more in taxes.

Not "1% more": 52,000% more.

In total, based on Courage Campaign's own estimates, Kim Kardashian would be paying about 42% of her income in taxes, not 10.3%.

The middle-class family would be paying 20%.

I put these points to Courage Campaign honcho Rich Jacobs. He was unmoved. "I don't mean to sound obtuse, but I'm not following you," he said. "You can quibble, but she's paying 1% more in her marginal tax rate. I would say it's fully accurate."

Actually, it's not. Certainly it is correct to say that Kim Kardashian pays the same tax rate on her 999,999th dollar as a middle-class Californian pays on their 47,000th dollar. But so what? Overall she's paying about $5 million, compared to $9,600.

It is not in any way, shape or form correct to say that "She only paid 1% more in taxes than a middle-class Californian."

Naturally there are a boatload of caveats. We don't really know how much Kim Kardashian earned in 2010 or paid in taxes. If she was able to shelter income, or categorize some as capital gains or qualified dividends somehow, she would have paid less tax than estimated here.(Jacobs, in what I can only call a brilliantly clever debating move, added that as Kim Kardashian pays a higher federal tax rate than a middle-class Californian family, she may be able to write off more of her Californian state taxes, meaning her effective rate might actually be lower.)

But a middle-class person also has access to write-offs of various kinds. I've ignored, for example, 401(k) and IRA contributions, mortgage interest tax deductions, and various other tax breaks. Many people making $47,000 gross income a year are paying very little federal tax. A fair few, when you factor in benefits of one form or another, may be net claimants off the state.

As for that $47,000 figure: The U.S. Census thinks the median household income in California (in 2009) was $59,000.

But that's all by the way.

To be sure, there are super-rich people in the United States who are paying way too little tax by almost any estimation. But they are mostly tycoons working the 15% tax breaks on capital gains and dividends, not people paying 42% average tax. (According to the latest data from the IRS, from 2008, the 400 highest-earning tax filers earned an average of $110 million a year yet paid just 18% federal tax. As recently as the mid-1990s that was 30%). The offenses of the U.S. tax code are mainly these big breaks for the super-rich, and the regressive payroll taxes on the poor.

The Kim Kardashian tax "analysis," in other words, was wildly misleading.

But apparently, in the age of the Internet, nobody cares. These claims were reported, without criticism, by wire services and newspapers. They turned up everywhere. I dread to think how many times they were "retweeted." This is the new world. Don't think tweet! Don't report blog! Facts? Schmacts!

As for Kim Kardashian: I wouldn't know her if I stood next to her in the line at Starbucks. I asked someone why she was famous. Apparently she has an attractive figure, especially when seen from certain angles. Why this is worth $12 million a year, or even $12 a year, is beyond me. But presumably she can wiggle that asset to another state if California hikes its taxes too high. Then the state will get 100% of nothing.

Solar power bankruptcies loom as prices collapse

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The once high-flying solar power sector is headed for tough times, as a combination of slack demand and massive oversupply is leading to plummeting prices and profits for solar panel makers.

The past year was already grim. The Guggenheim Solar (TAN) exchange-traded fund is down 60% since January and sits even lower than it did following the crash in 2008.

Two high profile companies have gone bankrupt in the United States -- government-backed Solyndra and Evergreen -- and analysts anticipate more failures ahead.

"Solyndra was just the beginning," said Jessie Pichel, head of clean energy research at the investment bank Jefferies & Co. "We're going to see a lot of companies go bankrupt."

Just how many? Of the few hundred or so solar panel makers worldwide, just 20 to 40 are expected to remain standing in a few years time, said Mark Bachman, a renewables analyst at Avian Securities.

Solyndra hearing becomes giant waste of time

This isn't necessarily a bad thing for solar power. Bachman noted that many young industries go through this phase -- think of all the auto makers at the beginning of the last century or television makers 40 years ago. As the market matures, the stronger companies survive.

And there's an upside to declining prices: It means more people are likely to go solar.

But the next couple of years will be wrenching for companies and investors in the solar power space as the weaker players go bust or get bought by larger rivals.

The fall: In some ways, the bust was inevitable. For much of the last decade solar power worldwide saw annual growth rates in the double or even triple digits.

Those tantalizing numbers led to massive over-investment. Stock valuations for publicly traded companies soared, as did state support from the Chinese government, which saw solar power as a growth industry and a way to curb rising pollution.

Both of these things led to a massive amount of available capital. Factories were built and production capacity mushroomed.

But just as all these new solar panels were making their way to market, the debit crisis hit in Europe. The generous subsidies offered to solar power by European governments and utilities were cut. Demand for solar panels fell.

Plus, solar project developers were having a hard time getting credit to build new power plants, further cutting into demand. Prices for solar panels began falling rapidly.

A year ago solar panels were selling for $1.50 to $2 per watt, said Ramesh Misra, a senior analyst at Brigantine Advisors, a research outfit. Now they sell for half that, and the decline hasn't stopped.

U.S. to investigate Chinese solar 'dumping' claims

For solar power developers, even if they have the money and subsidies lined up, there's every incentive to wait.

"The solar investors think they can get a better price next week than this week," said Avian's Bachman. "No one wants to move."

So inventories build up, companies sell panels at below-market rates just to move product, and the downward spiral continues.

The shakeout: What has to happen to turn things around?

Better access to credit, a more stable subsidy policy and fewer solar panels on the market, analysts say. Fewer panels means fewer solar panel makers.

Many analysts say it's the top-tier solar producers that have the technology and name recognition to come out on top. Those include The United States' Sunpower (SPWR) and First Solar (FSLR), as well as China's Yingli (YGE), Trina (TSL) and Jinkosolar (JKS).

Yet other analysts think it's the Chinese firms that sell unbranded solar panels that will prevail. These firms have often benefited from government support that includes massive low-interest loans.

These companies have also been accused of selling solar panels below cost, most recently in a trade dispute filed with the U.S. Commerce Department on behalf of some publicly traded solar panel makers.

"It has poisoned the profit pool," said Hari Chandra, a cleantech analyst at the investment bank Auriga.

Chandra thinks there's no way the publicly traded firms can compete with the generic Chinese companies, given their backing by the Chinese government.

"You're not competing with Chinese companies," he said. "You're competing with China sovereign."  

Initial Jobless Claims Rise, But Remain Under 400,000

By Dirk van Dijk

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance rose by 26,000 last week to 397,000 (last week was revised up by 3,000, so one could see it as a 29,000 increase). This was a bit worse than the expected level of 382,000.

While the reversal after several weeks of sharp declines is not welcome, neither is it the end of the world. The weekly numbers, after an erratic few months, seem to have broken decisively to the downside. First the holidays and then the bad weather seemed to have played havoc with the weekly numbers, but those effects should have passed by now. Let us hope the decline resumes next week.

The good news is that we managed to remain below the 400,000 level. If we can stay below it, it probably signals the start of much more robust job growth. While we have had some big upward spikes in recent weeks, the overall downward trend in initial claims seems to be intact. We have gotten out of the “trading range” that initial claims were in for almost all of 2010.

Initial claims had been generally trending down since they hit a secondary peak of 504,000 (after revisions) on August 14, 2010. The weather would tend to have more to do with the timing of claims, not the overall level, making the week to week numbers more erratic, but not make much of a change in the overall level.

4-Week Moving Average

Since claims can be volatile from week to week, it is better to track the four-week moving average to get a better sense of the trend. It rose by 3,000 to 392,250.

As far as the domestic economy is concerned, robust job creation has been the last big part of the puzzle to fall into place. Whether it can withstand the pressures from government budget cuts and increased oil prices is an open question, but right now things are starting to look better on the jobs front. Relative to a year ago, the four-week average is down by 78,250 or 16.6%.

The economy is growing, but is only starting to add a significant number of jobs and to put a dent in the huge army of the unemployed. The February employment report was encouraging, but we still have a very long way to go. We added a total of 192,000 jobs according to the establishment survey, as the private sector total of 222,000 was significantly offset by the loss of 30,000 jobs in state and local government.

The unemployment rate dipped to 8.9% from 9.0%. While the monthly decline in the rate was probably due to rounding, it did indicate that the massive plunge in the prior two months was for real. The two month drop in the unemployment rate from November to January was the largest since 1958!



So why is the 400,000 level so significant? The next graph shows why. Historically, that has been the inflection point where the economy starts to add a lot of jobs. It layers over the monthly gain or loss in private sector jobs (red line, right hand scale).

Unfortunately, the automatic scaling did not put a line at zero for the job growth line, so you will have to eyeball it a bit. However, notice the strong inverse correlation between job growth and initial claims, and how when the blue initial claims number is below the 400,000 level that job growth is strong.



Continuing Claims

The data on regular continuing claims was encouraging. Regular continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell by 20,000 to 3.771 million. They are down by 923,000 or 19.7% from a year ago. Regular claims are paid by the state governments, and run out after just 26 weeks.

The next graph shows the long-term history of continuing claims for unemployment, as well as the percentage of the covered workforce that is receiving regular state benefits. It does a good job of showing just how nasty that the Great Recession was for the job market. It also shows how things at the regular state unemployment benefit level have been getting much better over the last year (but still well above the peaks of the last two recessions.

Note that the insured unemployment rate generally follows the direction of the number of claims, but has been gradually diverging over time. That is a function of the overall growth of the labor force, and of tighter eligibility standards for getting unemployment insurance over time. It also reflects the fact that this time around a very large proportion of those getting unemployment benefits are getting them from the extended Federal programs, not from the regular state programs.



In February, half of all the unemployed had been out of work for 21.2 weeks (down from a record high of 25.5 weeks in June, and from 21.8 weeks in January) and 43.9% had been out of work for more than 26 weeks. Just for a point of perspective, prior to the Great Recession, the highest the median duration of unemployment had ever reached was 12.3 weeks near the bottom of the 82-83 downturn.

Clearly a measure of unemployment that by definition excludes 43.9% of the unemployed paints a very incomplete picture. The number of short-term unemployed (less than 5 weeks) was actually exceptionally low. With the exception of one month in 2007, it was at its lowest point since 1973.

After the 26 weeks are up, people move over to extended benefits, which are paid for by the Federal government. While regular claims are down, it is in large part due to people aging out of the regular benefits and “graduating” to extended benefits. Unfortunately, the data on extended claims in prior recessions is not available at the St. Louis Fed database.

Downtrend Accelerating

The extended claims have started to trend down, and the downtrend is starting to pick up speed. They (the two largest programs combined) fell by 201,000 to 4.303 million. Relative to a year ago, they are down 1.192 million or 24.4%.

A much better measure is the total number of people getting benefits, regardless of which level of government pays for them. Combined, regular claims and extended claims (including a few much smaller programs) fell by 463,000 on the week and are down 2.647 million or 23.2% over the last year.

(The extended claims numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the initial and continuing claims are, so there is always little bit of apples-to-oranges. In addition, the continuing claims data are a week behind the initial claims, and extended claims are a week behind the extended claims data. Normally that is not a huge issue, but given the recent volatility it is more significant, especially for the weekly changes).

Extended Benefits & Tax Cuts

The recent deal President Obama made with the GOP to extend the Bush tax cuts for all for two years included an extension of unemployment benefits until the end of 2011. People will still “graduate” from the system after 99 weeks, but people will continue to be able to move to the next tier up to the 99 week limit.

Extended benefits are in four different tiers, so if benefits had not been extended, some people would have lost their benefits after just 39 weeks of being out of work. The key point, though, is that the year-long extension does not mean that some people will be getting benefits for a total of 151 weeks, as is sometimes thought.

The tax deal prevented 2 million people from losing this last financial lifeline. The downside to the deal was that it will reverse the downward trend in the budget deficit and cause the deficit to be higher in fiscal 2011 than it was in fiscal 2010, and is now projected to exceed the 2009 record deficit.

We will get data later today on the size of the Federal Budget deficit in February. The extended benefit portion of the deal was not the main reason the deficit is going up; the extension of the high-end Bush tax cuts -- and particularly the 2% payroll tax holiday -- played a bigger role.

The fiscal stimulus from the payroll tax cut is being undermined by attempted cuts in other domestic government spending. If the draconian House spending cuts of $61 billion for the latter half of fiscal 2011 were to be enacted, the result will be a slower economy and hundreds of thousands of fewer jobs in the economy. That, in turn, will significantly undermine the deficit reduction that is the supposed aim of the exercise. Many of the cuts, such as a $600 million cut for the IRS, do not seemed to be designed to reduce the budget deficit anyway, but to accomplish other objectives.

Some claim that the long duration of unemployment benefits has actually discouraged people from looking for work. That is, people are content to live forever on 60% of their previous income, or $400 per week, whichever is lower. The average benefit is only about $300 a week. Ask yourself how well could you live on $300 per week.

The extension of benefits is one of the key reasons that initial claims are falling. While that may sound counter-intuitive, it is because extended benefits are a very effective form of economic stimulus.

Losing Benefits: The 99ers

It is worth noting that even with the deal there are large numbers of people who are losing their benefits. Those are the 99ers. The 99 weeks of benefits they get works out to be just short of two years. The heaviest period of lob losses in the Great Recession was two years ago. Many of those people have still not found jobs, and as time goes by they become less and less attractive to employers.

The JOLTS report showed that in December there were 3.1 million Job openings, and that month we had 14.5 million people unemployed, so there are 4.67 people unemployed for each job opening. The January Jolts data should come out later today or tomorrow.

Extended unemployment benefits are, dollar of dollar, one of the most effective forms of economic stimulus there is. It is a pretty good bet that the people losing their extended benefits have depleted their savings and run up all the debt they can in trying to make ends meet. The maximum unemployment benefit works out to be just $20,800 per year, or less than the poverty line for a family of four. You think any of those people have been able to sock any of that away?

There is a concern that by cushioning the blow of unemployment, people might be more reluctant to take a marginal job opportunity, but a below-poverty-level income is not that much of a cushion. I’m not sure it is good for the economy for highly skilled people to be taking jobs in other fields that have no use of those skills, and then be unavailable when those skills are needed again.

The people who get extended benefits tend to spend the money quickly on basic needs. This, in turn, keeps customers coming in the door at Wal-Mart (WMT) and Family Dollar (FDO). It means that, at the margin, some people are able to continue to pay their mortgages and thus helps keep the foreclosure crisis from getting even worse than it already is. However, by the time they are well into extended benefits, they might also be spending food stamps as well as the unemployment check at Kroger’s (KR).

These customers keep the people at Wal-Mart, Family Dollar and Kroger’s -- and of course their competitors -- employed. It also keeps the people who make and transport those goods employed as well, although in that case much of the stimulus is lost overseas if the goods are imported.

Still Some Murkiness

It is not clear if the marginal propensity to import is higher for poor (or temporarily poor because they are unemployed) or for the rich. Lots of the stuff on the shelves of Wal-Mart comes from China. On the other hand, the poor are not likely to be buying Swiss watches or German autos. They will not be buying absolutely frivolous things like water imported from halfway around the world (Fiji water).

What is clear is that they will spend it quicker, increasing the velocity of money, than will the rich who will tend to save more of it, particularly if they see the increased income from say a continued tax cut for the highest income people as temporary. The rich are much more likely, in other words, to fit Milton Friedman’s “Permanent Income Hypothesis” than are the unemployed, since the rich do not face liquidity constraints.

Also, if you remember your Friedman, velocity of money counts, and it counts a great deal. P * Q = M * V. Price times quantity in the aggregate is nominal GDP, and it is equal to the amount of money in circulation times how quickly it changes hands. Money in the hands of the unemployed has a much higher velocity than money in the hands of a multi millionaire.

There really is not good way to tell from this report if the decline in the number of people receiving benefits is due to them getting new jobs, or due to even the extended benefits running out. If it is the former, it is very good news. If it is the latter, it just means more people are falling into absolute destitution.

That is not good news for either the economy or for social stability. Both the very high unemployment duration numbers and the falling civilian participation rate (unchanged at 64.2% in February, but it has been trending down) from 64.3% in December, would suggest that it is the unhappy latter case that is happening.

Good News Inferred for Longer Term

The longer-term trend is very much in the right direction. The 4-week average staying below the 400,000 level is a very encouraging sign. In the last two recoveries, when it got below that threshold, that job creation really started to take off. If it stays there, we will climb the Stairway to Heaven of a rapidly falling unemployment rate. If it shoots above 500,000 then we are on the Highway to Hell.

The current level, provides a hope that we have escaped the purgatory of a pseudo recovery. I would like to see a few more weeks of continued improvement, or even stabilization at the current weekly level before declaring victory.

However, this report was a mixed one, with continued good news on the continuing and extended claims front (again with the caveat that we really don’t know what happened to the people who left the extended claims rolls) but a bit of a disappointment on the initial claims front. Still relative to where we were just a few months ago, even the initial claims number still looks pretty good.