Anadarko Petroleum Earnings: Portfolio Optimization Fuels Strong Results

As you've probably noticed, oil prices have taken a dive this year. In fact, crude oil in the United States recently fell to $79 per barrel. That's a multi-year low for West Texas Intermediate and a 27% decline from the price per barrel reached just a few months ago. While that's great news for consumers who will spend less at the pump and keep more of their discretionary income, it's terrible news for oil and gas companies.

Because of what's happening in the oil market, this earnings season was supposed to be a disaster for oil and gas companies, and particularly for companies in the exploration and production industry, as those companies are even more highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices than their larger integrated peers are. However, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC  ) proved its doubters wrong by posting strong third-quarter results that beat the overarching fears of a major slowdown in the oil and gas industry.

Here is a breakdown of Anadarko's results, as well as the strategic decisions made that helped fuel its successful quarter.

Strategic moves are producing results
Anadarko has worked aggressively to divest non-core assets and reinvest the proceeds in the oil and gas fields it deems most attractive for future development. Last quarter alone, Anadarko closed on the $1.075 billion sale of its China unit, and it also closed on $1.2 billion worth of additional divestments. Those moves left the company in a strong financial position, with $8.3 billion of cash on hand. Going forward, it will use its financial resources to expand in its key portfolio assets.

One of the company's areas of focus is the Wattenberg field, a large natural gas field located in Colorado's Denver Basin, where Anadarko recently embarked on a horizontal drilling program that has produced excellent results. That, in conjunction with midstream expansions, helped Anadarko to grow sales volumes at Wattenberg by 87% last quarter, year over year. Anadarko also has strong acreage positions in the Eagle Ford and Wolfcamp fields.

Separately, Anadarko is heavily involved in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The company has invested huge resources there in a massive new project that's nearing completion. The Lucius project is on schedule, and first oil is expected within the next few weeks.

Because of the company's strategic initiatives undertaken over the past year, Anadarko's underlying fundamentals are improving. Last quarter, earnings soared to $2.12 per diluted share, up from just $0.36 earned in the same period last year. Of course, it needs to be stated that most of this performance was due to one-time events that aren't part of the company's core operating activities. For example, Anadarko realized approximately $1 billion on gains from derivatives and divestitures.

Still, even when excluding these items, Anadarko still had a good quarter. Production stayed strong, despite the drop in oil prices over the past several months. Anadarko's sales volumes of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids rose 14% last quarter, year over year, to an average of 849,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day, a figure that includes adjusting for its divestments. Because of the strong progress seen over the first several months of 2014, Anadarko management increased its sales volume forecast for the remainder of the year.

Production growth should provide shelter from the storms
The oil and gas industry looks like a scary business right now, what with the carnage rippling through the energy markets. The price of oil has collapsed in just the past few months, which is showing up in the earnings reports out of Big Oil. However, not all oil and gas companies are struggling. Anadarko Petroleum is thriving, despite the decline in oil prices. That's because Anadarko is benefiting from an aggressive divestment strategy, which has allowed the company to simultaneously shed underperforming projects as well as raise funds necessary to fuel expansion in higher-performing areas.

It also allowed Anadarko to post strong results last quarter, as well as increase its forecast for the remainder of the year.

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Top Reasons to Invest in National Oilwell

In this article, let's take a look at National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV), a $30.43 billion market cap company that designs and manufactures drill rig equipment, provides downhole tools and services, and also provides supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry.

Market leader

On 2005, after the merger with Varco International, the company changed its name to National Oilwell Varco. The firm practically made every component that goes into a drilling rig, and also leads each product line in which it operates. We think this will remain in the future.

Strategies for expansion

In order to expand operations and gain more market share, the company focuses on drilling machinery and equipment, as well as making acquisitions. So far, there were more than 200, with some of them with a transformative characteristic; others were little ones concentrating in adding a product line or technology.

Those acquisitions were effective to create intangible assets like intellectual property and also high switching costs

Cash flow yield

At today's trading price, it has a free cash flow yield of about 9%, higher than most of the companies in the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services industry, and we believe this trend will continue in the future.

Commodity prices

Lower oil prices affect capital spending budgets, and this immediately affects drilled and rig orders. Apart from this, another risk that the firm faces is execution risk in several forms like paying more for acquisitions or the risk of mispricing orders.

Revenues, margins and profitability

Looking at profitability, revenues grew by 17.34% led earnings per share increased in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago ($1.62 vs $1.40). During the past fiscal year, the company reported lower earnings of $5.16 versus $5.83 in the previous year. This year, Wall Street expects an improvement in earnings ($5.99 versus $5.16).

Finally, let´s compare the best measure of performance for a firm's management: the return on equity. The ROE is useful for comparing the profitability of a company to that of other firms in the same industry.

Ticker

Company

ROE (%)

NOV

National Oilwell Varco, Inc.

11.72

HAL

Halliburton Co

24.18

TS

Tenaris SA

12.39

 

Industry Median

7.94

The company has a current ROE of 11.72% which is higher than the industry median. In general, analysts consider ROE ratios in the 15-20% range as representing attractive levels for investment. So for investors looking those levels or more, Halliburton (HAL) and Tenaris (TS) could be the option. It is very important to understand this metric before investing, and it is important to look at the trend in ROE over time.

1415105344287.png

Relative Valuation

In terms of valuation, the stock sells at a trailing P/E of 12.1x, trading at a discount compared to an average of 18.5x for the industry. To use another metric, its price-to-book ratio of 1.42x indicates a premium versus the industry average of 1.34x while the price-to-sales ratio of 1.32x is above the industry average of 1.08x.

As we can see in the next chart, the stock price has an upward trend in the five-year period.

1415105285970.png

Final comment

This industry could be hurt if prices are lower for a long time, but oil prices remain high and drilling activity continues to rise, which is a favorable scenario for National Oilwell.

The PE relative valuation and the return on equity that significantly exceeds the industry average make me feel bullish on this stock.

Hedge fund gurus like Mario Gabelli (Trades, Portfolio), Larry Robbins (Trades, Portfolio) and George Soros (Trades, Portfolio) bought this stock in the second quarter of 2014.

Disclosure: Omar Venerio holds no position in any stocks mentioned

Also check out: Mario Gabelli Undervalued Stocks Mario Gabelli Top Growth Companies Mario Gabelli High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Mario Gabelli keeps buying Larry Robbins Undervalued Stocks Larry Robbins Top Growth Companies Larry Robbins High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Larry Robbins keeps buying George Soros Undervalued Stocks George Soros Top Growth Companies George Soros High Yield stocks, and Stocks that George Soros keeps buyingAbout the author:ovenerioWe provide independent fundamental research and hedge fund and insider trading focused investigation.
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