OCZ Off 5% Despite FYQ3 Rev Beat, Upbeat Forecast

Shares of solid-state storage maker OCZ Technology Group (OCZ) are down 38 cents, almost 5%, at $7.72 this despite the company this afternoon beating fiscal Q3 revenue expectations and forecasting Q4 above expectations as well.

Revenue in the three months ended in November nearly doubled, year over year, at $103.1 million, yielding EPS of 6 cents.

Analysts on average had been modeling $98.6 million in revenue. Estimates for earnings per share are slightly confusing. FactSet had 5 cents consensus, which would suggest the company beat by a penny, though some other sources have the company merely meeting a six cents consensus.

For the current quarter, the company sees revenue in a range of $105 million to $120 million. That is ahead of the consensus $105 million estimate.

2 Infrastructure Firms With Low Valuations

Revenue growth is starting to return in a big way at some companies involved in building infrastructure and numerous companies in the sector sell for a fraction of what they did in 2007. Here are two companies with accelerating revenue growth and low valuations that are significantly under analysts’ price targets.

Tutor Perini (TPC) –

Tutor Perini Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides diversified general contracting, construction management, and design-build services to private clients and public agencies worldwide. It operates in three segments: Civil, Building, and Management Services.

(Business description from Yahoo Finance)

4 reasons TPC is a long term bargain at just over $15 a share:

1. The median analyst price target on Tutor Perini is $24. It is selling at a forward P/E of just over 6.

2. The stock had a $70 price back in 2007 when it $3.54 a share (See Chart)

click to enlarge

3. The company is selling at the bottom of its five year valuation range based on P/E, P/S, P/B and P/CF.

4. Revenue growth is accelerating. TPC is expecting 18% growth in sales in 2011 and consensus is for 21% growth in revenues in 2012.

Terex Corporation (TEX) –

Terex Corporation manufactures and markets machinery products, equipment, and related replacement parts and components for construction, quarrying, mining, shipping, transportation, refining, energy, and utility industries.

(Business description from Yahoo Finance)

4 reasons Terex has long term potential at just under $17 a share:

1. The mean analyst price target on Terex is $22 and S&P has a $24 price target on TEX. It is selling at a forward P/E of just over 10.

2. The stock had a $90 price back in 2007 when it $5.85 a share (See Chart)


3. The company is selling near the bottom of its five year valuation range based on P/S, P/B and P/CF.

4. Revenue growth is booming. Terex is expecting more than 40% growth in revenues in 2011 and consensus is for over 20% growth in sales in 2012.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in TEX, TPC over the next 72 hours.

Top Acquisition News; can Accuray boost TomoTherapy into Profitability?

TomoTherapy Incorporated (NASDAQ: TOMO) shares spiked nearly 25% after the company today announced its acquisition by Accuray for $4.80 per share in cash and stock, or a total of about $277 million. The combined entity is expected to create the premier radiation oncology company. As per the terms of the definitive agreement, each TomoTherapy shareholder will receive $3.15 in cash and 0.1648 shares of Accuray common stock. The deal is expected to close in the second quarter or the beginning of the third quarter of calendar 2011. The company noted that all of its executive officers and directors entered into deal to vote their shares in favor of the merger, which collectively represented approximately 11% of the company’s common stock as of February 28. The company also agreed to pay a termination fee of $8 million upon a termination of the deal under certain circumstances.

The combined entity will have an installed base of more than 550 units in 32 countries, and more than 1,100 employees. The combined revenue of the two companies in calendar year 2010 exceeded $400 million, of which 30% was from service of the installed base.

The company recently reported its fourth quarter results with net loss of $(6.39 million) or $(0.12) per share as compared to net loss of $(3.37 million) or $(0.07) per share last year. The total revenues for the quarter rose to $62.07 million from $57.95 million in the prior year. The revenue from product sales was $48.1 million, up 8% as compared to the same quarter last year, and revenue from service and other was $13.9 million, up 5% as compared to the same quarter last year.

Accuray has been profitable in three of its last four quarters; on the flip-side,� TomoTherapy is braced to lose $0.30 to $0.50� per share in 2011. Accuray said it expects the deal to add to its profit starting in the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2012.

The company expects loss per share to be in the range of $0.30 to $0.50 for fiscal year 2011. The full-year revenues are expected to be in the range of $215 million to $235 million.

TomoTherapy stock is currently trading at $4.60. The stock is up 25.34% from its previous close. TomoTherapy shares touched the high of $4.70 and lowest price in today�s session is $4.59.

The company stock traded in the range of $2.59 and $4.70 during the past 52 weeks. The company�s market cap is $258.71 million.

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Morningstar Reports February ETF Growth

February continued to give the ETF industry some love, as month-over-month increases and inflows were up. Emerging markets was the main sector that missed cupid’s arrow, as some of these funds were the biggest losers.

Morningstar reported U.S. ETF inflows reached $6.8 billion in February. Total ETF industry assets were nearly $1 trillion at the end of February, marking a month-over-month increase for the sixth consecutive month, according to the report.

Additional highlights from Morningstar’s report on ETF flows:

  • U.S. stock ETFs, with inflows of $5.7 billion, drove overall ETF inflows, even though inflows to the asset classes were down roughly 55% from the previous month.
  • International-stock ETFs saw outflows of $3.3 billion, the most of any ETF asset class. Some of the ETFs with the greatest outflows during the month were iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSEArca: EEM) and the Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSEArca: VWO).

Currently, there are 919 ETFs trading, and 28 providers. Vanguard had the largest inflows with $2.5 billion, according to BlackRock’s report. Assets under management for the U.S. ETF industry is at $929.1 billion.

Tisha Guerrero contributed to this article.

American College to Launch Center for Women and Financial Services

The American College announced Thursday that it would be launching the Center for Women and Financial Services, thanks to a $2.8 million donation from State Farm Insurance.

The center is intended to be a “focal point of research, education and knowledge [that] will serve as the nation's leading authority on the economic issues and opportunities of American women, both as consumers and providers of financial products and services,” according to the College.

Professor Mary Quist-Newins, holder of the State Farm Chair in Women and Financial Services at the College, said that the center would become an advocate for American women’s economic security through research and the dissemination of information and education. She added that the center could also help financial organizations better understand women’s value as producers and leaders in the industry.

Larry Barton, Ph.D., president and CEO at the College, said in a statement that the resources of the center would “enable this institution to deepen our understanding of the issues associated with American women and money, including recruitment, retention and the advancement of women in the financial services industry.”

According to the College, American women are “one of the world’s most powerful forces,” making up as they do 45% of America’s millionaires. It is also projected that approximately 66% of American wealth will be controlled by women by 2030.

However, for most women the picture is not so rosy, with a gender earnings gap still in place and with women often earning less over their lifetimes than men. They also live longer, and are thus more likely to live alone and to experience more health problems that are both chronic and disabling. Many women are less financially literate than men, and, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, women in general are twice as likely to spend their retirement in poverty.

The industry has a long way to go to ingratiate itself with women. According to a State Farm survey conducted in 2008, two-thirds of women didn’t trust financial service professionals, and a Boston Consulting Group survey of 12,000 women learned that, out of 34 product/service categories, financial services ranked lowest in satisfaction.

The State Farm-established Chair in Women and Financial Services at the College, launched in 2007, allowed research that resulted in a study called “The American College Benchmark Producer Research 2009.” It revealed, according to the College, that “while earnings increase among financial advisors of both genders throughout their careers, they do so to a lesser degree for women.”

The new center, with its additional personnel and resources, will be devoted to understanding and meeting the financial challenges faced by women.

Timeless Toys Are All the Rage This Year

Toys don't need to be outfitted with gizmos or gimmicks to get top billing at a local toy store this year.

According to data from Panjiva, a consulting firm that tracks suppliers across the globe, shipments of timeless toys far outnumber shipments of many items on this year's hot toys lists.

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In fact, this year's shipments of Barbie, Legos and Hot Wheels are at their highest level since 2007. Barbie saw a 13% increase over last year, while Hot Wheels shipments were up by 30%.Lego shipments skyrocketed by 65% over last year, thanks in part to its Ninjago Limited Edition Lightning Dragon Battle.The stats are based on shipments made in the U.S. from August through October.Other classic toys that are still popular with consumers include Elmo products, which debuted back in 1996, and toys associated with the movie Toy Story, which include versions of classics such as Mr. Potato Head, Etch A Sketch, green army men and a piggy bank.Panjiva says classic toys remain popular not just for sentimental reasons, but because parents feel confident they are buying something their child is guaranteed to like."It also helps that many of these products are better on consumers' wallets than fancy electronics or the latest 'it' toy capturing dramatic price markups," Panjiva CEO Josh Green said in a press release.This isn't the first time nostalgia has affected shopping preferences this year. In October, we found out old '80s and '90s cartoon characters, such as Strawberry Shortcake, were some of the most popular Halloween costumes of 2011.Follow TheStreet.com on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

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Are the Earnings at CH Energy Group Hiding Something?

It takes money to make money. Most investors know that, but with business media so focused on the "how much," very few investors bother to ask, "How fast?"

When judging a company's prospects, how quickly it turns cash outflows into cash inflows can be just as important as how much profit it's booking in the accounting fantasy world we call "earnings." This is one of the first metrics I check when I'm hunting for the market's best stocks. Today, we'll see how it applies to CH Energy Group (NYSE: CHG  ) .

Let's break this down
In this series, we measure how swiftly a company turns cash into goods or services and back into cash. We'll use a quick, relatively foolproof tool known as the cash conversion cycle, or CCC for short.

Why does the CCC matter? The less time it takes a firm to convert outgoing cash into incoming cash, the more powerful and flexible its profit engine is. The less money tied up in inventory and accounts receivable, the more available to grow the company, pay investors, or both.

To calculate the cash conversion cycle, add days inventory outstanding to days sales outstanding, then subtract days payable outstanding. Like golf, the lower your score here, the better.

Here's the CCC for CH Energy Group, alongside the comparable figures from a few competitors and peers.

Company

TTM Revenue

TTM CCC

�CH Energy Group $1,005 �23
�Consolidated Edison $13,112 �16
�CenterPoint Energy $8,403 �38
�Ameren $7,462 �66

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. TTM = trailing 12 months.

For younger, fast-growth companies, the CCC can give you valuable insight into the sustainability of that growth. A company that's taking longer to make cash may need to tap financing to keep its momentum. For older, mature companies, the CCC can tell you how well the company is managed. Firms that begin to lose control of the CCC may be losing their clout with their suppliers (who might be demanding stricter payment terms) and customers (who might be demanding more generous terms). This can sometimes be an important signal of future distress -- one most investors are likely to miss.

While I find peer comparisons useful, I'm most interested in comparing a company's CCC to its prior performance. Here's where I believe all investors need to become trend-watchers. Sure, there may be legitimate reasons for an increase in the CCC, but all things being equal, I want to see this number stay steady or move downward over time.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Because of the seasonality in some businesses, the CCC for the TTM period may not be strictly comparable to the fiscal-year periods shown in the chart. Even the steadiest-looking businesses on an annual basis will experience some quarterly fluctuations in the CCC. To get an understanding of the usual ebb and flow at CH Energy Group, consult the quarterly period chart below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

On a 12-month basis, the trend at CH Energy Group looks very good. At 22.6 days, it is 9.9 days better than the five-year average of 32.5 days. The biggest contributor to that improvement was DSO, which improved 7.8 days compared to the five-year average. That was partially offset by a 0.9-day increase in DIO.

Considering the numbers on a quarterly basis, the CCC trend at CH Energy Group looks OK. At 25.8 days, it is little changed from the average of the past eight quarters. Investors will want to keep an eye on this for the future to make sure it doesn't stray too far in the wrong direction. With quarterly CCC doing worse than average and the latest 12-month CCC coming in better, CH Energy Group gets a mixed review in this cash-conversion checkup.

Though the CCC can take a little work to calculate, it's definitely worth watching every quarter. You'll be better informed about potential problems, and you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

To stay on top of the CCC for your favorite companies, just use the handy links below to add companies to your free watchlist.

  • Add CH Energy Group �to My Watchlist.
  • Add Consolidated Edison �to My Watchlist.
  • Add CenterPoint Energy �to My Watchlist.
  • Add Ameren �to My Watchlist.

Economic News You Can Use

Almost every day a major government agency or private organization releases new information covering the status of some pocket of the economy. I’m here to help you sift through the barrage of economic data out there and determine what this will mean for your stocks.

Building and maintaining knowledge about how economic reports and information pertains to your portfolio decisions can build your confidence in financial decisions.

Consumer Confidence Report

What It Measures: What this report measures is somewhat self-explanatory. Every month, the Conference Board surveys 5,000 households to figure out consumers’ take on current conditions as well as their expectations for the future. The expectations index make up 60% of the total index because it is a better leading indicator than the current conditions index, which makes up the remaining 40%. This survey helps forecast sudden shifts in consumption patterns, but only changes of at leave five points should be considered significant.

The Breakdown:� In February, consumer confidence held at 70.2. This is near the highest level in the past 12 months and fell in line with economists’ expectations. What got U.S. consumers excited in February were the improvements on the jobs front as well as unexpected stock-market gains.

The Bottom Line: This measure of consumer confidence has been on a tear since October 2011, when the index bottomed out around 40. The index has also improved by leaps and bounds since the low point of the recession. However, I do expect that the index may start to level off in the coming months due to higher gas prices.

Durable Goods Orders

What It Measures: Orders are a leading indicator of manufacturing activity. So, every month the Census Bureau and the Department of Commerce measure the dollar volume of orders, shipments and unfilled orders of durable goods. Durable goods are those that last at least three years. This report is different from the Factory Orders report, which covers both durable and non-durable goods. Usually, large aircraft and defense orders skew the total number, so it is important to look at the breakdown of the orders. The non defense capital goods figure is a good indication of how manufacturing is doing.

The Breakdown:� The Department of Commerce announced last Wednesday that overall durable goods climbed 2.2% in February. This represents a reversal from January’s loss of 3.6%, but still came below economists’ estimates of a 2.8% jump. Excluding transportation, durable goods climbed 1.6%, surpassing the consensus estimate of a 1% gain. Meanwhile, the core capital goods figure climbed 1.2%, also reversing a loss in January. The headline figure was boosted by a jump in aircraft orders.

The Bottom Line: This reversal from January is great news, but not entirely surprising. This time last month, a major tax deduction expired, accounting for the drop in orders. It appears that the economy is stabilizing after that blow. All in all, a good headline reading.

Initial Claims for Unemployment

What It Measures: They are an indicator of the direction of the job market. Increases in jobless claims show slowing job growth; decreases in claims signal accelerating job growth. On a week-to-week basis, jobless claims are volatile, so one of the best ways to track this measure is to look at the four-week moving average. It usually takes a jump or decline of at least 30K claims to signal a meaningful change in job growth.

The Breakdown: Jobless claims continued a downward trend, this time dropping to 359,000. This represents the lowest level in four years, but came in slightly above economists’ estimates that jobless claims would fall all the way to 350,000. The prior week’s jobless claims were upwardly revised to 348,000. The four-week-moving average also declined by 3,500 to 365,000.

The Bottom Line: With a little luck, the steady decline in jobless claims will reflect in this week’s March Unemployment Rate report.

Fourth-Quarter GDP (Third Estimate)

What It Measures: Gross Domestic Product shows the big picture. Annualized quarterly percent changes in GDP reflect the growth rate of total economic output. Of course, this report can move the market up or down, depending on the data. The broad components of GDP are: consumer spending (consumption), investment, net exports, government purchases and inventories. Consumer spending is by far the largest component, totaling roughly two-thirds of GDP. Quarterly GDP reports are broken down into three announcements: advance, preliminary and final. After the final revision, GDP is not revised again until the annual benchmark revisions each July. If you only have time to focus on one economic report, this is it.

The Breakdown:� The third and final revised estimate of fourth-quarter GDP showed that economic growth in the U.S. remained at 3%. This matched the previous reading and also fell in line with economists’ estimates. This means that fourth-quarter GDP officially accelerated over the third quarter, when the economy expanded just 1.8%. Last quarter, the largest contributions to economic growth came from gains in inventories, consumption and U.S. exports. Meanwhile, government spending and an increase in imports acted as a drag on GDP.

The Bottom Line: �This is a solid reading. Unfortunately, I don’t expect this pace to last. Between rising gasoline prices and inventory gluts, I expect first- and second-quarter GDP to moderate downward a bit.

Personal Income

What It Measures: Personal income measures income, most importantly wages and salaries, from all sources. The report also factors in other sources of income like rental payments, government subsidy payments, interest income and dividend income. This helps to predict future consumer demand, which of course comprises about two-thirds of economic activity. Another important figure in this report is personal consumption expenditures (PCE). PCE covers spending on durables, nondurables and services; these data supplement the retail sales report to get a sense of consumer spending.

The Breakdown:� In February, personal income climbed 0.2%. This was in line with January’s gain but came in slightly below economists’ estimates of a 0.3% climb. Disposable personal income also rose 0.2%. Meanwhile, personal spending jumped 0.8%, accelerating from January’s 0.4% gain. Surpassing the 0.6% consensus estimate, this represents the biggest jump in seven months.

The Bottom Line: Although we all would have liked a stronger reading on personal income, the jump in spending indicates that consumers are still willing to open their wallets. This is a big plus for the economy and an encouraging sign for the second quarter.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Final Reading)

What It Measures: The University of Michigan index is almost identical to the Conference Board index, though there are two monthly releases, a preliminary and final reading. Like the Conference Board index, it has two subindices�expectations and current conditions. This index has increased its influence of late on Wall Street and has the ability to move the market up or down. Consumer confidence is hard to nail down, so it is important to keep track of both reports.

The Breakdown:� On Friday, the University of Michigan’s final reading for March consumer confidence jumped to 76.2. Because February’s reading was 75.3, this represents the highest reading in a year. This was led by significant gains in consumers’ current expectations. Nonetheless, concerns about inflations caused the consumer expectations component to decline slightly from February.

The Bottom Line: This reading was definitely stronger than the earlier Conference Board report, but the relative strength shown in both reports is encouraging. As I mentioned earlier, consumer confidence could very well level off due to higher gasoline prices, but I am happy with these near-term gains in the meantime.

Canadian stocks slip, but notch weekly gain

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) � Energy stocks traded in Toronto gained ground Friday as crude-oil futures jumped above $109 a barrel, but the moves couldn�t prevent the equity market�s benchmark from ending slightly lower.

Click to Play U.S. week ahead: data deluge

U.S. investors will start the week reacting to the G-20 meeting and then move on to a heavy slate of data releases, including, ISM, Q4 GDP, and home sales. Also Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies, and Priceline.com reports earnings. Laura Mandaro reports.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index CA:GSPTSE �turned lower, closing down 6 points at 12,725.77, with consumer staples and materials stocks closing in the red. The loss was the index�s first in four sessions.

But the index finished the week up 2.2%.

The S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index XX:TTEN �picked up 0.2% on Friday, counting Suncor Energy Inc. CA:SU �and Husky Energy Inc. CA:HSE �among the companies whose shares rose alongside a 1.8% jump in April crude �to $109.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Crude has climbed to a nine-month high on continued worries that Iran may stop oil exports to some European nations after the European Union imposed an oil embargo on Iran last month.

An International Monetary Fund official said Thursday that a halt of Iranian oil exports to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries could produce a rise in prices between 20% and 30%. Read more about Friday's surge in crude-oil futures.

Also higher were March gasoline �and heating oil futures, but March natural gas futures �declined nearly 3%.

Elsewhere in the energy group, Nexen Inc. CA:NXY � shares climbed 1.5% to C$21.18 after the company said first oil has been produced from the Usan field offshore West Africa. Nexen, which has a 20% working interest in Usan, expects the project �to deliver significant cash flow and long-term value� to the company.

Also moving higher on the benchmark were shares of Magna International Inc. CA:MG �, up 5.4% to C$47.36 as the auto-parts manufacturer lifted its dividend by 10% following growth in fourth-quarter results. Magna also hiked its sales forecast for the year.

Magna said its new dividend of 27.5 cents a share is payable on March 23 to shareholders as of March 12.

Meanwhile, shares of Iamgold Corp. CA:IMG �slumped 9.1% to C$15.90 after the gold miner�s fourth-quarter results came in lower than anticipated, and as its gold reserves declined by 5%.

In the futures market, investors booked gains in gold and silver. Gold for April delivery �fell 0.6% to $1,776.40 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold rose 2.9% for the week, with the rise stemming from a weaker U.S. dollar and inflation worries set off by higher oil futures and retail gas prices.

March silver �shed 0.6% to $35.34 an ounce, but logged a weekly gain of 6.4%.

Among mining stocks that lost ground in Toronto trading, Kinross Gold Corp. CA:K �declined 2.1% and Yamana Gold Inc. CA:YRI �fell 1%.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA �lost nearly 2 points to 12,982.95. The S&P 500 Index SPX �rose 2 points to 1,365.74 and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP �gained 7 points, 0.2%, to 2,963.75.

The indexes finished higher for the week. Read about U.S. stocks in Market Snapshot.

Democratizing Creativity - 3D Printing With 3D Systems Corp

The next generation technological breakthrough is already here. 3D printing will change the way the world views creativity and designing products. The goal of Abe Reichental, the CEO of 3D Systems Corp (DDD), is to "Democratize Creativity." He believes that every person is capable of producing a great idea or design and he wants to provide people with the opportunity to do so. With the recent release of the Cube, 3D Systems has brought this notion of allowing everyone to be creative to life.

How it Works

You may have heard about 3D Systems' newest addition to its line of printers, The Cube. It was released this past March and has been a big hit so far. It is priced at $1,299 which is a bit pricey for the average consumer. Of course as with all technology, one can expect that price to be cut in half within the coming years as manufacturing and efficiency improve. The printer houses color cartridges that are priced at $50/cartridge, with discounts when you buy more than one. A cartridge will last you 13 mid-sized designs. Each design is created out of plastic material and the printer takes about 70 minutes to complete each design. This printer, in essence, allows designers to produce a scaled down version of their product, giving them the ability to look at and feel their products before wasting a ton of money on full sized models.

Where it will be used

As of right now the Cube is mainly intended for hobbyists and small business owners. In the future I would expect that the majority of households have a 3D printer as their main printer. Think back to when cell phones first came around. No one thought they needed one, however once everyone started using them they realized they couldn't live without them. I feel as if the same will happen with these printers. DDD has already tried to "democratize creativity" by creating a store similar to Apple's App store. The store is called Cubify, and allows users to upload their designs and sell their inventions to users with the 3D printers. You will need a CAD program to make a design, but you can buy the software cheap online. So for instance if you needed a model for a couch, you could log onto Cubify, purchase a design, and print it using your 3D printer which would allow you to see what the final product may look like. If you have an iPhone and you need a case, you can log into Cubify, pick a case design that you like, and print it (assuming you have a 3D printer). In this instance you could actually use that case for your iPhone. Another interesting fact is that people are now getting even more creative and instead of using plastic to print with, they are printing with edible materials such as chocolate!

DDD's Outlook

(Click to Enlarge)

If you were to search for DDD articles over the past year you will find articles where the authors advise their readers to sell at $15 or $20 or $30. They don't think DDD has the capability to hit it big. Then of course everyone thought the same about Apple (AAPL) and boy I wish I wouldn't have listened. DDD's revenues increased 41% from 2009 to 2010 and 44% from 2010 to 2011. It is estimated that revenues will hit $347.62M by the end of 2012 (a 34% increase) and revenues in 2013 will be $415.55M according to Yahoo. Earnings are growing at a steady pace as DDD had earnings of $0.77 in 2011 and is expecting earnings of $1.14 in 2012 and $1.33 in 2013. DDD is outperforming both its industry and sector. A P/E ratio of 44.66 may seem high but you have to take into account that DDD is a growing company, and growth stocks usually have higher P/E ratios than value stocks. YTD it has returned 125.56% and I don't think it is done yet. DDD's next earnings date is July 26th. The key of this release will be how well has the Cube done it terms of sales. How much revenue has it brought in and do they expect continued growth in terms of market share and adopters? In the upcoming year investors will want to watch the company closely, keeping an eye out for any new product developments or even institutions buying in to 3D printing. An article released today describes how DDD just successfully integrated its new ProJet MP 3500 3D dental printer with 3Shape's Dental System. This combined technology offers a cost effective and efficient way for dentists to create models for their patients and is a small win for DDD.

A long road ahead

While I do believe this technology has the capability to succeed, I'm not so sure how soon we can expect it to do so. To suggest that the technology will be used by average consumers in just a few years would be premature. I think that a long trend of advancements and upgrades will lead to a slow adoption of the technology. A need for the average person to have 3D printing has not yet been identified. As the technology improves and is able to make larger items/models, you may see a more rapid pace of adoption of the technology.

Summing it all up

As I have stated I do think this technology could be the next breakthrough. If 3D printing does take off, DDD will be in prime position to capture that market share. However as with every company offering new technology to the public, there is a high chance that they will fail. The odds are stacked against them, especially considering the slow market we are experiencing right now. What are your opinions? Do you think DDD will succeed or fail?

Disclosure: I am long DDD.

Stocks edge higher on hopes for Europe

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks finished mostly higher Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P extending gains from the previous day's rally, as investors remained hopeful that leaders are making progress on addressing the eurozone debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 33 points, or 0.3%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) added 3 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) finished lower, losing 12 points, or 0.5%, with Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Netflix (NFLX) dragging on the index.

Financial stocks, which led Monday's advance, were also among the losers Tuesday. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) posted the biggest declines in the Dow. Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) also fell. Bank of America's stock dropped to $5.03, the lowest since March 2009.

After the closing bell Tuesday, Standard and Poor's cut the ratings on dozens of major banks, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup. The downgrades were the result the agency's new ratings criteria for the world's 37 largest financial institutions.

A French downgrade could derail eurozone rescue

Nerves were strained after Moody's warned that 87 banks across 15 of the 17 eurozone countries could face downgrades and Italy auctioned €7.5 billion of 3- and 10-year bonds that drew the highest yields in years. Borrowing costs in Italy have been above the uncomfortable 7% mark for days.

But investors are banking on European leaders to step up and agree to a detailed resolution to Europe's debt crisis.

European leaders are working on a new plan to ensure fiscal discipline across the euro area. The proposal is expected to give the European Union greater authority over the budget policies of individual eurozone nations.

"The story continues to be Europe, and signs of anything positive coming out of there in a deeply oversold market are enough to trigger a rally," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co.

A two-day meeting of eurozone finance ministers got underway Tuesday. However, investors aren't expecting any major announcements until a European Union summit next week.

Market to ECB: Do something!

Optimism about a possible Europe solution, along with strong Black Friday weekend sales, also sent stocks surging on Monday.

But Dickson remains unconvinced that the enthusiasm will last.

"We've had short-term rallies based on frequent bursts of positive news, but those are quickly dampened by reality when nothing comes of these European meetings," he said. "I'm not negative, but I'm skeptical. I'll view these rallies as short-term events until we see signs of a more definitive agreement reached by the eurozone and the European Central Bank."

Economy: Stocks also found support after the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index shot up to 56 in November from 40.9 the prior month. Economists were expecting the reading to come in at 42.5.

The S&P/Case Shiller index, a gauge of home prices, dropped 3.9% in the third quarter compared to a year earlier, following a 5.8% year-over-year decline in the previous quarter.

Companies: American Airlines' parent company, AMR Corp. (AMR, Fortune 500), announced that it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in order to "achieve a cost and debt structure that is industry competitive." The company's stock plunged more than 80%.

Shares of rival airlines, including Delta (DAL, Fortune 500) and United Continental (UAL, Fortune 500), gained traction.

Shares of Tiffany & Co (TIF). sank after the luxury jewelry retailer reported earnings that topped forecasts, but reeled in its guidance for the fourth quarter.

Corning's (GLW, Fortune 500) stock tumbled after the company slashed its fourth-quarter outlook for profit and production of glass for LCD displays, after a major Korean customer notified Corning that it will not honor its contract for the remainder of the year.

World markets: European stocks closed slightly higher. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) ticked up 0.5%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany rose 1% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) added 0.4%.

Asian markets ended with sharp gains. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) and the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong climbed 1.2%, and Japan's Nikkei (N225) rallied 2.3%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar slumped against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for January delivery rose $1.58 to settle $99.79 a barrel.

Gold futures for December deliver rose $2.60 to settle at $1,713.40 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged lower, pushing the yield up to 2% from 1.96% late Monday.  

Sound Advice on Becoming an Investor

Wouldn’t it be nice to just lie around in the house, watch business channels, read your favorite book, and play golf even on a weekday, maybe? It probably isn’t the most dynamic career, but investors obviously get paid generously if the company they’re investing in is yielding good profits.

Are you saving for a retirement fund (pension)?

Depending on the country you’re in, there will still be options for your retirement plan. In the United States, employees and workers can choose from 401K, 403B, IRA or Roth IRA retirement savings plan. Investing on these is crucial especially in the unsavory times ahead of us. You can invest in both a 401K and an IRA, but do be advised that the 401k is an employer-sponsored plan, meaning you can’t apply for it if you’re a full-time freelancer.

Are you pining for the stock market?

You can apply either for a discount brokerage or a full service brokerage. Discount brokerages are easily the cheapest, intuitive, and the most addictive for beginners, since most of these brokerages are based online, meaning you can access your account anytime, anywhere, and gain total control over your assets. Full service brokerages on the other hand, are the more expensive alternative, but do offer you more soundness for your investment and top-notch communication with their brokers.

Know Who It’s For

Is it for your retirement? Your wife and daughter’s? Or are you just bored and want to try something new these days? It’s apparently the rule of conscience that will decide if you’re going to invest or not. A lot of investors in the stock market had doubts before if they’ll be able to withstand the pressure of possibly losing all of their money (and still be covered in debt) in just a week’s time. It’s also imperative that you have the time to monitor your investments. The stock market isn’t a lottery draw where you just wait for the numbers to be flashed on TV.

Be Mathematically-Inclined

If you’re pondering why you hated math in the first place, it’s mainly because the decimals really had no real-world practical use when you were a kid. In the business world, however, just a change in the decimal place of a share price of stocks may mean tumultuous risks for both the shareholder and the business.

It’s never too late to learn financial math, especially when all the groundwork has been laid out for you. All you need to know are the basic formulas, like the expected return, the payback period, earnings per share, etc. With your analytics skills, these laid-out formulas, a computer, a trusty calculator, and of course, money in the bank, you’re basically good to go.

Using your trusty calculator, you can assess how much in a year (or even in ten years’ time) your investment is going to yield. There are a lot of external factors to consider, but it will be helpful if you are anticipating something rather than sailing in the middle of the ocean with no compass.

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GMX Resources updates Investors on 2012 Company Outlook

GMX Resources Inc. (NYSE:GMXR) has traded as high as $1.25 during today�s trading session and last traded at the high of the day for a gain of 32.98% from yesterday�s close. GXMR shares have traded as high as $6.48 over the past 52 weeks, which is 80.7% off that high at last traded stock price. Get my next ALERT 100% FREE

GMXR today announces an operational update on our Bakken development program, provides production guidance for the first quarter and year-end 2012 and provides an update on the Company’s capital expenditures for 2012.

Over the last 14 months many important accomplishments have been made regarding the Company’s strategic direction to transform from a concentrated natural gas producer into a more diversified energy Company focused on an accelerated program to increase oil as a significant component of our near term exploration and production activities while improving liquidity in challenging market conditions.

  • Agreements to purchase 35,524 acres in the Bakken (150/1,280 acre Units) and 40,191 acres in the Niobrara providing the Company the opportunity to switch from primarily a natural gas producer to predominately an oil producer
  • Issued equity for approximately $105 million of cash and $200 million in High Yield Bonds to make acquisitions and fund drilling
  • Suspended natural gas drilling in July 2011 to re-direct capital to significantly higher rate of return acreage
  • Reduced H&P Flex Rig contract obligations by $47 million
  • Successfully completed a natural gas VPP for $49.7 million
  • Captured $18.5 million of natural gas hedge value
  • Terminated credit agreement and related financial maintenance covenants; no longer dependent on commercial lending
  • Successfully generated $100 million in new liquidity in connection with Bond Exchange
  • Implemented plan to reduce cash G&A by an estimated 21% for 2012
  • Established operational footprint in one of the largest and most competitive oil plays in USA
  • Prefunded planned 2012 drilling program with recent liquidity events

Given the continued decline in natural gas pricing resulting from an oversupply created by the success of horizontal drilling in the United States, our decision to transition to an oil producer and to suspend drilling of our core East Texas natural gas assets continues to be a prudent business decision.�The liquidity-enhancing steps undertaken by the Company during the fourth quarter of 2011 consisting of the issuance of secured senior notes due 2017, the execution of the VPP and the monetization of natural gas hedges were both creative and challenging to accomplish but resulted in approximately $168 million of additional capital available for drilling.� We plan to proactively maintain liquidity and are working on new oil hedging strategies. Read more

 

Deckers Outdoor a Step Ahead of Crocs

Tuesday wasn�t a great day for Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX) shares, which dropped 39% on lower guidance. The obvious question many investors will ask themselves after the dip is whether the stock is a bargain at $16 and change. It�s not. While Crocs� business mode has dramatically improved from its heyday in 2007, it still has a lot of work ahead of it. Don�t be tempted to take the deal. Instead, replace it with Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ:DECK). Here�s why.

Awful Timing

Crocs dropped third-quarter guidance from 40 cents per share to between 31 and 33 cents. At the low end, it�s a 29% downward revision. It�s still making good money, so the drop itself is not really a concern. What�s more troubling is the fact that the company released this information one week before its Q3 announcement. Either it felt compelled to spill the beans now in an effort to limit the downside or it�s completely unaware of what�s really going on in its business.

Obviously, shareholders hope it�s the former and not the latter. On the surface, it seems clear that this move was nothing more than damage control because in the previous four quarters, the company has had positive earnings surprises of 17%, 150%, 20% and 39%, in that order. A 30% miss without any warning would be devastating to any stock in this type of trading environment, but especially so for one with a checkered past.

A 39% decline today probably translates into a 50% drop or more on the day of its announcement. Management averted a firestorm by talking down its stock. That�s classic Investor Relations 101 stuff. Is it enough?

What�s Really Happening?

The above assumption hinges on the notion that management knew far in advance that its business wasn�t going to hit its margins in the third quarter and most likely the fourth as well. According to Robert Samuels of WJB Capital, Crocs� goal to hit a 15% operating margin for the year is now likely unattainable. Making a quick calculation, working backward from its third quarter EPS estimate of $0.31 a share, I come up with an operating margin of 11.4%, 130 basis points lower than in the third quarter of 2010.

What exactly does this mean? For starters, the company is growing revenues at the expense of profits. Even with the revision, third-quarter revenues will increase by 26% year over year, which is higher than the 21% growth it experienced in the third quarter of 2010. If this margin compression continues into the fourth quarter, year-end earnings won�t be nearly as impressive. Samuels cut his 2011 estimate by 25 cents, and the consensus before the guidance was $1.38 a share. Therefore, let�s assume it does $1.13 per share in 2011. For the first half of the year, its earnings per share were 85 cents.

Add 31 cents for the third quarter and you have a 3-cent loss in the final quarter. This compares to a profit of 5 cents in the fourth quarter last year. Sales are moving ahead while profits are falling behind. Until Crocs can demonstrate it has its expenses under control, its stock is not a bargain.

Gradual Change

In many ways, Crocs and Deckers Outdoors are similar. They both made it big by leveraging a single brand, grew quickly and eventually opened their own retail stores. But that�s where the similarities end. Crocs got its start in 1999. By then, Deckers had been in business for 26 years. It really got going in 1995, when it acquired the UGG Australia brand. While UGG boots still account for 70% of its overall business, its revenue diversification is ongoing.

Deckers might appear to be an overnight sensation, but it has taken almost four decades to get where it is today, which is at the pinnacle of footwear success. Gradual change is at the heart of its business. For instance, as of the end of the second quarter, it had 30 retail stores open in the U.S. and elsewhere. Meanwhile, Crocs has 397 stores or kiosks open worldwide, 10 times more than Deckers.

We all know the story of the tortoise and the hare. If you sell products people truly want, they�ll wait for you to open more stores. In the second quarter, Deckers opened 11 stores and converted its European business from a distributor model to that of a true wholesale business. As a result, it lost money in Q2. However, it is on course in 2011 for a 17% increase in earnings per share, to $4.72, and a 26% boost in revenues, to $1.26 billion. It has loads of cash, and on July 1 parted with some of it to acquire the Sanuk brand of sandals and apparel for $126 million, or three times sales.

Jeff Harbaugh�s Market Watch�blog suggests Deckers got itself a great brand with impressive 60% gross margins and an entr�e into the independent skate and surf shops it doesn�t currently serve. Forget P/Es for a moment — this is a company with a true vision of its future.

Top 10 Tax Benefits for Small Businesses

So many new provisions meant to encourage growth in small businesses have been included in legislation over the last two years, it’s hard to keep track. The SBA has put together a handy fact sheet to help business owners take advantage of those changes.

With the unemployment figure still stubbornly above 9%, small businesses are an important job engine in the U.S. The SBA noted that the “Recovery Act, the Small Business Jobs Act, the HIRE Act, the Affordable Care Act,” as well as The Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, all contained provisions to help small businesses. Some have been addressed in one bill and then improved upon in another bill.

“Across the Administration, we’ve focused on a number of tools that are available to help small businesses continue to drive economic growth and create jobs,” SBA Administrator Karen Mills (left) told AdvisorOne in an e-mail from a spokesman. “In fact, over the last two years, 17 tax credits have been put in place for small businesses that support their efforts to buy equipment, grow their business, and even hire new workers. One of the first things I say to small business owners I meet is ‘Do you and your accountant know what tax credits are available to you?’ SBA.gov offers an overview of those tax credits and is a good place to start.”

To help wealth managers sort out the updates, here is an outline from the SBA’s fact sheet of the top 10 tax benefits for small businesses:

  • Zero Capital Gains Taxes on Key Investments in Small Businesses
  • Up to $500,000 Small Business Expensing Limit
  • 100% Accelerated/Bonus Depreciation
  • Tax Relief/Simplification for Cell Phone Deductions
  • Increased Deduction for Entrepreneurs’ Start-Up Costs
  • 5-Year Carryback of General Business Credits
  • Limitations on Penalties for Errors in Tax Reporting
  • General Business Credit Not Subject to Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)
  • New Health Care Tax Credits and Deductions
  • A New Tax Credit for Hiring Unemployed Workers
  •  

    See the SBA’s fact sheet for full details.

    For more from AdvisorOne.com on the impact of recent legislation on small businesses, see:

    The Impact on Small Businesses of the Jobs Act: Part I

    The Impact on Small Businesses of the Jobs Act: Part II

    Trending on Twitter: Wall St. Hypocrisy

    Sallie Krawcheck insists she's not responsible for the Wall Street failings that happened on her watch as one of the industry's most powerful executives.

    In fact, even though she's not working on Wall Street today, Krawcheck says she's still an advocate for the investor. But don't take my word for it. Check out her Twitter feed. See @SallieKrawcheck on Twitter.

    On it, the same Sallie Krawcheck who held senior-level positions at B. of A. (BAC) and Citi (C) is -- according to the pro-Sallie camp -- continuing the good fight against bank greed and for fair dealing.

    She told me, "Given my experiences in the industry -- as research analyst covering the industry and manager within the industry -- I actually consider it my responsibility to be part of the very important debate on how to move the banking industry forward."

    There is a more cynical explanation: she's an opportunist. Krawcheck is a born-again reformer who's trying to stay relevant with the public and the media by taking shots at the industry that made her rich and famous.

    Whatever the story, Krawcheck in 140 characters or less, is breaking new ground again. She's banging on the door to another old boys' club, except this one includes such sullied figures as Henry Blodget, Richard Parsons and Eliot Spitzer.

    All of them exited their Wall Street careers and then seemed to have epiphanies. Blodget, a tainted research analyst, found a new calling as a muckraking Wall Street foil. Spitzer was an evangelical who sinned and picked up a TV career and part-time banking critic as if no one had noticed or was looking.

    Parsons might be the most shape-shifting of them all: He lobbied and benefited from the deregulation of Wall Street in the late 1990s. And last week, less than 48 hours after he resigned as chairman of Citigroup, Parsons lambasted that same deregulation effort.

    This leads us to Krawcheck who, since her dismissal from B. of A. almost six months ago, has laid low save for an op-ed or two. Remember, Krawcheck was one of the five most powerful executives at Citi in the mid-2000s. At B. of A. she headed the former Merrill Lynch and B. of A.'s retail brokerage arm, one of the two biggest in the country.

    Forget that she was the most powerful woman on Wall Street. She was, for the better part of the decade, one of the most powerful bankers in the world.

    She joined Citi in 2003, rose quickly and was named chief financial officer and head of strategy in 2004. She frequently was named on up-and-coming lists of top executives. She was a front runner to succeed Charles Prince, Citi's chief executive.

    Oh, and she was paid well. Her total compensation was roughly $11 million in 2005, $10.6 million in 2006, $7.1 million in 2007. And Sallie was a mover. No, literally. One year, she spent $34,300 of shareholder money on air and ground transportation.

    What happened during the next three years is a matter of historical debate. Some say Krawcheck was in over her head as chief financial officer. They say she didn't recognize that leverage at the bank was getting out of hand.

    Others say she tried to steer Citi away from risk but was ignored or overruled by Citi veterans.

    What's not open to debate is that during her years at the top, Citi piled on more leverage than at any point in its history. The result was the biggest bailout package this side of American International Group Inc. in 2008 and 2009.

    She left Citi and quickly moved to Bank of America in 2009. Again, stories differ. Krawcheck supporters claim she demanded both Citi and B. of A. compensate its customers. Critics say she wasn't aggressive enough or was more concerned with making profits in her division.

    Enter Twitter

    On March 10, Krawcheck got the Twitter bug. Identifying herself as the former head of Merrill Lynch and Smith Barney (leaving out Citi and B. of A.), she's been tapping her inner reformer:

    On the say-on-pay "no" vote last week at Citi's annual meeting in Dallas:

    "Citi investors' no on exec comp but clamoring for increased dividends; risk off, risk on?"

    On too-big-to-fail banks:

    "Top 5 banks' assets 56% of GDP, vs 43% 5 years ago -- 'too bigger to fail?'"

    She's been philosophical -- she turns 47 this year:

    "Creativity, innovation peak later in life than most think; thank goodness "

    Oh, and Krawcheck is also on the social networks and getting disappointing suggestions:

    "Insult 2 injury @LinkedIn 'Jobs u may b interested in' keeps suggesting I apply to be a Merrill trainee -- seriously."

    Mostly, however, it's been banking and investing shop talk. On March 30, she recommended an Atlantic story about psychopaths on Wall Street. See Atlantic story on psychopath finance.

    Then she did a guest spot on CNBC. As of last week, Krawcheck joined the board of a gold-trading company. Still, she's found time to tweet: "talk of big bank break-ups not going away." she wrote April 3.

    Gregory Vistica, a spokesman for Krawcheck, said his client's tweets aren't out of character. Krawcheck, he said, had a long, documented career of pushing for investor rights. Many of those fights happened behind closed doors, he said.

    Krawcheck herself added, "If I can use my experiences to weigh in on certain important topics that impact clients, such as the regulation of money funds, I am not going to shy away from those, particularly if my point of view is different from the consensus."

    The problem, even if Krawcheck is sincere, is that too many have exited their Wall Street firms and jobs with a suitcase full of money in hand. As they stride toward the town car waiting in the street they point over their shoulder at the bank and shout, or tweet, "You wouldn't believe what's going in there!"

    Few of those who saw the light ever had the power, position and influence Sallie Krawcheck had.

    That doesn't necessarily make her less believable, just more of a disappointment.

    How Does Pfizer Boost Its Returns?

    As investors, we need to understand how our companies truly make their money. A neat trick developed for just that purpose -- the DuPont formula -- can help us do so.

    So in this series we let the DuPont do the work. Let's see what the formula can tell us about Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) and a few of its peers.

    The DuPont formula can give you a better grasp on exactly where your company is producing its profit, and where it might have a competitive advantage. Named after the company where it was pioneered, the formula breaks down return on equity into three components:

    Return on equity = net margin x asset turnover x leverage ratio

    What makes each of these components important?

    • High net margins show that a company can get customers to pay more for its products. Luxury-goods companies provide a great example here.
    • High asset turnover indicates that a company needs to invest less of its capital, since it uses its assets more efficiently to generate sales. Service industries, for instance, often lack big capital investments.
    • Finally, the leverage ratio shows how much the company is relying on liabilities to create its profits.

    Generally, the higher these numbers, the better. That said, too much debt can sink a company, so beware of companies with very high leverage ratios.

    So what does DuPont say about these four companies?

    Company

    Return on Equity

    Net Margin

    Asset Turnover

    Leverage Ratio

    Pfizer 11.4% 16.7% 0.35 2.17
    Merck (NYSE: MRK  ) 7.5% 8.8% 0.45 1.85
    Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG  ) 20.8% 24.1% 0.57 1.52
    Sanofi (NYSE: SNY  ) 8.9% 14.5% 0.26 2.38

    Source: S&P Capital IQ

    Pfizer's returns on equity are largely achieved through its strong net margin and leverage ratio. But its low asset turnover makes Pfizer turn in a limp 11.4% return on equity. Celgene has the highest return on equity of the listed companies, more than 9 percentage points above Pfizer's. These are largely achieved with a net margin that dwarfs those offered by its industry peers and stronger asset turnover than the other listed companies, even without using high leverage.

    Pfizer currently offers an attractive 3.7% dividend. However, now that its patent for Lipitor has expired, the company faces potential competition from companies like Watson Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: WPI  ) , Teva Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq: TEVA  ) , and Mylan (Nasdaq: MYL  ) , which produce generic drugs. None of that increased competition will be good for long-term dividend growth.

    But not all is lost for the blue-pill maker. Pfizer successfully defended its patent to prevent other companies from selling generic versions of Viagra until 2019. This is a big win, since Viagra makes up about 3% of Pfizer's revenue and even more on the bottom line, since the product likely has high margins.

    Using the DuPont formula can often give you some insight into how a company is competing against peers and what type of strategy it's using to juice return on equity. To find more successful investments, dig deeper than the earnings headlines.

    If you'd like to add these companies to your watchlist, or set up a new one, just click below:

    • Add Watson�Pharmaceuticals to My Watchlist.
    • Add Teva�Pharmaceutical to My Watchlist.
    • Add Sanofi to My Watchlist.
    • Add Pfizer to My Watchlist.
    • Add Mylan to My Watchlist.
    • Add Merck to My Watchlist.
    • Add Celgene to My Watchlist.

    Some Thoughts on Managing Bond Investing

    One of my readers made some good comments, and asked some good questions, so I am responding here. From the article, Dave, What Should I Do? (3):

    DM: Some of my friends want to invest with me, but I am not a total solution to anyone’s financial needs, because the only stuff I am managing is the risk capital.

    Reader: Just curious, why did you choose to go this route instead of the “total solution” route.

    Later in this post, you have very detailed bond fund recommendations, so why not just manage the total portfolio with the appropriate asset allocation across risk capital versus bonds?

    I’m not seeing the advantage of just the risk capital approach. It seems like less AUM, and less fees, and the client still has to figure out what to do with the remainder of the investable capital.

    Between your comments, and requests from clients and potential clients, that is what led me to start the fixed income strategy. I am moving some of my family’s assets into that strategy so that I have “skin in the game.” I always thought I would do this, but I thought it would come later. Reality has intervened.

    And, from the article, Managing Fixed Income for Equity Clients:

    Given your background, I would think managing the bond portion would be almost a triviality. I would assume for bigger accounts you could do individual bonds effectively, and I understand for smaller accounts going the CEF/ETF route. I am genuinely curious why for smaller accounts you would totally avoid actively managed bond funds. This is what I currently do. I use Hussman Total Return and PIMCO Total Return for my bond allocation, but I have been thinking about further diversifying that. I’ve been thinking of adding Jeff Gundlach’s new fund now that he is on his own. My understanding is he is considered one of the top bond fund managers. I’ve also heard Dan Fuss from Loomis Sayles is really good. My thought with the bond allocation is to put it on auto-pilot as much as possible, and focus my efforts on generating alpha in the risk asset part of the portfolio.On a broader point, I think you are right about offering this, because I think most people are looking for a “total solutions” provider. If one only manages the equity allocation, then I think you almost have to stress that to the client, and then they are still left to their own devices on what to do with the rest of the investable money. My thought is why give up that business and more importantly are you really helping that person by basically saying I only do A and you are on your own for the rest. In my view, managing the total portfolio is really win-win for both the advisor and client, and I am actually surprised at the number of advisors who only do stock-picking. My thought is they largely only do that because that is what they like.

    Anyways, I hope this has been somewhat helpful, and I’d love your feedback on some of the funds I mentioned if you care to offer it.

    I have respect for Dan Fuss, Jeff Gundlach, John Hussman, Vanguard and Pimco. Pimco is misunderstood, because it is a quant shop, and uses a ton of fixed income derivatives. Vanguard has the most durable advantage because of low expenses.

    Why am I not using actively managed bond funds? I would rather work with simple vehicles that allow me to express my macro views, and have low costs for clients. I am the manager. If I use actively managed funds, I am the manager of managers. That is not what I want to be. Eventually, if my fixed income assets get big enough, I will stop using funds and buy bonds directly. And that will be a lot of fun, because when I managed a lot of bond assets, I was able to add a lot of value through clever trading.

    And from the article Abandon All Hope All Ye Who Enter Here:

    1. What do you mean by “dual currency”?

    2. In your view, what are the investment/portfolio implications of what appears to be the inevitability of nothing meaningful getting done on fiscal policy until the crisis hits with full force. Seems to me many, even highly intelligent people, believe we can put off adjustments for another day down the road.

    http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2011/03/constructive-postponement.html

    Dual currency means that a nation has two currencies, one for domestic dealings, and one for international dealings. I do not advocate it, but such a system can be used to favor domestic interests over international interests, or vice-versa. It depends what the government wants to do. Historically, there have been cases where a government under stress:

    • defaults on foreign obligations
    • defaults on domestic obligations
    • defaults on both

    The dual currency helps with the first two options, because it allows the government to easily choose who to pay.

    On the fiscal policy deadlock: the credit cycle is unpredictable in term of detailed timing. How much more the credit cycle as applied to governments, which “never go broke.” Things are great until they aren’t. Who predicted that the PIIGS would erupt specifically in 2010? Seeing the troubles is easy, naming the time is tough.

    Delay merely makes the future solutions tougher, because the problem to solve is bigger. The trouble is, we don’t know what actions our government will take. I lean toward inflation, given the tendency of American history, but who can tell?

    This is a tough time to be managing bonds, but what time isn’t?

    RIMM Slips 7%: Q4 BB Shipments Falling to 11M to 12M

    Research in Motion (RIMM) this afternoon reported fiscal Q3 revenue per share in line with a pre-announcement earlier this month, and earnings per share in line with its reduced range, but forecast Q4′s results below expectations.

    Revenue in the three months ended in November fell 6%, year over year, but rose 24%, quarter to quarter, to $5.2 billion, yielding EPS of $1.27, excluding some costs.

    Analysts had been modeling $5.26 billion and $1.19 per share. RIM’s own pre-announcement on December 2nd called for revenue to be “slightly lower” than the prior forecast of $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion, with EPS “below or at the mid-point” of the $1.20 to $1.40 per share range originally offered.

    That adjusted revenue figure excludes a $54 million charge for the period of lost service revenue related to the company’s network outage during the quarter. The adjusted EPS figure excludes a $356 million charge to write-down inventory of the company’s PlayBook tablet computer. Including that charge, GAAP EPS came in at 51 cents a share.

    For the current quarter, the company sees revenue of $4.6 billion to $4.9 billion, which is below the current $5.08 billion estimate. EPS is seen in a range of 80 cents to 95 cents, below the average $1.10 per share Street consensus.

    BlackBerry shipments in the quarter are seen declining from last quarter’s 14.1 million units to a range of 11 million to 12 million units. The company had already warned BlackBerry shipments would decline this quarter, but had not previously said by how much.

    BlackBerry subsribers rose 35%, year over year, to almost 75 million in the quarter, said co-CEOs Jim Balsillie and Mike Lazaridis, despite a service outage during the quarter.

    The company sold 150,000 units of the PlayBook in the quarter, helped by promotions that it said increased demand.

    The two chiefs further remarked,

    RIM continues to have strong technology, unique service capabilities and a large installed base of customers, and we are more determined than ever to capitalize on our strengths to overcome the recent execution challenges surrounding product launches and the resulting financial performance. As part of our commitment to improving our performance to better meet the expectations of shareholders and customers, we continue to evaluate ways to improve in several areas of the Company’s operations. It may take some time to realize the benefits of these efforts and the platform transition that we are undertaking, but we continue to believe that RIM has the right set of strengths and capabilities to maintain a leading role in the mobile communications industry.

    RIM will host a conference call with analysts at 5 pm, Eastern time, and you can catch it here.

    RIM shares are down 43 cents, or almost 3%, at $14.70 77 cents, or 5%, at $14.36 $1.05, or almost 7%, to $14.08 in late trading.

    Update: In a note to clients out just a moment ago, RBC Capital‘s Mike Abramsky writes that the Q4 revenue outlook is weaker than the $4.8 billion to $5.1 billion he had been modeling. The BlackBerry shipment forecast of 11 million to 12 million units was below his own estimate for 13 million to 14 million units.

    He concludes, “the BlackBerry 7 product cycle is diminishing early, and international momentum is slowing — with BlackBerry 10 launches not coming soon enough to offset.” He acknowledges the rise in subscribers was positive, as was the company’s free cash flow generation.

    www.rim.com/investors/events/index.shtml

    7 Biotech and Health Care Stocks to Buy

    There’s more to health care than just cold and flu season. Making up the pharmaceutical industry are biotechnology companies that do research and development on medicines for serious illnesses, manufacture ways to treat various diseases and are involved in everything from neurology to hematology.

    Adding a little health care to your portfolio is a must because the baby boomer generation will be relying on it in historical quantities in the coming years — the health care industry is expected to grow by an average of 5.8% per year through 2020.

    I watch more than 5,000 publicly traded companies with my Portfolio Grader tool, ranking companies by a number of fundamental and quantitative measures. And this week, I’ve got seven biotech and health care stocks to buy.

    Here they are, in alphabetical order. Each one of these stocks gets an �A� or �B� according to my research, meaning it is a �strong buy� or �buy.�

    Alexion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALXN) is involved with hematology, nephrology, neurology, ophthalmology and cancer treatments. Since the start of 2011, ALXN stock is up 78%, compared to a gain of just 6% for the Dow Jones. ALXN stock gets an �A� for sales growth, an �A� for earnings growth, an �A� for earnings momentum, an �A� for its ability to exceed the consensus earnings estimates on Wall Street, an �A� for the magnitude in which earnings projections have increased during the past month and a �B� for return on equity in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of ALXN stock.

    Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) discovers, develops, manufactures and markets medicines for serious illnesses. AMGN stock has gained 17% year-to-date. AMGN stock gets a �B� for its ability to exceed the consensus earnings estimates on Wall Street, a �B� for the magnitude in which earnings projections have increased during the past month, a �B� for cash flow and a �B� for return on equity in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of AMGN stock.

    Biogen Idec (NASDAQ:BIIB) develops treatments for neurological disorders and other serious diseases. Since the start of 2011, BIIB stock has jumped 66%. BIIB stock gets a �B� for earnings growth, a �B� for earnings momentum, a �B� for cash flow and an �A� for return on equity in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of BIIB stock.

    Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG) is a globally integrated biopharmaceutical company. In the past 12 months, CELG stock has outpaced the broader markets with a gain of 15%. CELG stock gets an �A� for sales growth, an �A� for earnings momentum, a �B� for earnings growth, an �A� for the magnitude in which earnings projections have increased during the past month, a �B� for cash flow and an �A� for return on equity in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of CELG stock.

    Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) is another biopharmaceutical company worth mentioning, with its 10% return year-to-date. GILD gets a �B� for earnings momentum, an �A� for cash flow and an �A� for return on equity in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of GILD stock.

    Pharmasset Inc. (NASDAQ:VRUS) is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company and the big winner on this list. VRUS has posted an astronomical gain of almost 470% in 2011. VRUS gets a �B� for earnings momentum in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of VRUS stock.

    Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:REGN) is involved with the discovery, development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products for the treatment of serious medical conditions. REGN rounds out the list with a gain of 70% year-to-date. REGN gets an �A� for the magnitude in which earnings projections have increased during the past month in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of REGN stock.

    Get more analysis of these picks and other publicly traded stocks with Louis Navellier�s Portfolio Grader tool, a 100% free stock-rating tool that measures both quantitative buying pressure and eight fundamental factors.

    Your cell phone is out of your control

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Here's the takeaway from the Carrier IQ fiasco: Mobile phone owners have no clue what data-gathering tools are running on their devices, and little ability to control them.

    Tiny Carrier IQ's sudden jump into the national spotlight ignited widespread confusion and anger. The flap began late last month after Android developer Trevor Eckhart released a 17-minute YouTube video indicating that the little-known application was sending everything you do on your phone back to your carrier -- including what websites you visit, what your texts say and what keys you press.

    Carrier IQ and the carriers amplified the anxiety by staying relatively mum.

    They refuted the charge that they logged or tracked keystrokes, but couldn't immediately explain everything the software -- intended to help carriers troubleshoot network problems -- was actually doing.

    "We're as surprised as anybody to see all that information flowing," Andrew Coward, Carrier IQ's director of marketing, told CNNMoney soon after Eckhart posted his YouTube video.

    Three weeks later, Carrier IQ and its customers have finally finished dissecting their products. We now (mostly) know how Carrier IQ works, how it got there, and what its purpose is.

    It turns out that those initial statements were (mostly) right. Carrier IQ sends innocuous data from your phone back to your carrier like when and where you sent a text message, when and where a call dropped, and what apps are draining your battery. That information helps carriers find problems.

    Here's what it doesn't do: It doesn't send your keystrokes, the content of your text messages or what websites you visit to your carrier.

    The log exposed on Eckhart's video, captured on an HTC EVO 3D from Sprint (S, Fortune 500), turned out to be a specific, one-off issue.

    Carrier IQ and a security consultant, Dan Rosenberg of Virtual Security Research, determined that HTC had turned on a debug logger that should have been left off by default. As a result, the Carrier IQ app was temporarily storing everything a user did on the phone. The software maker said it is working with HTC to fix the issue.

    Carrier IQ is installed on an estimated 150 million mobile devices, but the specific problem Eckhart uncovered appears to be limited to a small handful of devices.

    So was all the hullabaloo over nothing? Not really.

    "I want to make it clear that just because I do not see any evidence of evil intentions does not mean that what's happening here is necessarily right," said Rosenberg.

    "Consumers need to be able to opt out of any sort of data collection," he said. "There needs to be more transparency."

    One option would be to require government or third-party oversight. Even Carrier IQ suggested that some regulation would be welcome.

    Each carrier it works with chooses to gather different information from their customers' phones, and the scope varies widely. But cell phone owners have been largely left in the dark about what carriers are collecting.

    "It raises a lot of questions for the industry -- and not [only] for Carrier IQ," said Andrew Coward, Carrier IQ's director of marketing. "It questions the trusted relationship between a consumer and the operator."

    This is a story that's becoming familiar. Phone makers and carriers keep tripping over "bugs" that leave customers' movements and communications more exposed than anyone realized.

    In April 2010, data researchers discovered that the iPhone appeared to be recording users' every move and sending the information back to Apple. IPhone users became furious.

    Apple didn't comment for about a week, but finally posted an explanation on the company's website. The iPhone was not technically recording users' locations. Rather, it was logging nearby Wi-Fi network locations to assist with GPS tracking.

    Still, the company admitted that it grabbed and kept more data than it intended. Apple eventually fixed the issue with a software update.

    Smartphones hold a treasure trove of information about their owners, and they're constantly transmitting some of that data to and from the handset's manufacturer, the carrier and the companies that design the phones' software.

    Unless those transfers become more transparent, these blow-ups will keep happening. 

    5 High-Impact Biotech Catalysts to Watch This Week

    This week is marked with several high-impact catalysts that investors and traders should be monitoring. Below we have some commentary on the 5 events that are going to be on everyone's watchlist.

    Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA) received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA regarding their NDA for Lorcaserin. The FDA cited a number of non-clinical and clinical reasons for their decision including marginal efficacy, rat tumors, and recommended that ARNA submit the final study report of the BLOOM-DM (Lorcaserin in diabetes) trial.

    I don’t see this news as positive in any way. There appear to be too many what-ifs along the road for ARNA. BLOOM-DM trial results aren’t likely to be significant for their case due to marginal efficacy. It’s also unclear how much work will be needed in order to alleviate the rat tumor issue. A resubmission from ARNA will certainly not happen until spring 2011, since it will take at least a month for them just to meet with the FDA, then there will be considerable work to be done.

    Avanir Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AVNR) has a PDUFA date of October 30th (Saturday) for AVP-923 (dextromethorphan/quinidine) for the treatment of patients with a neurological condition known as pseudobulbar affect (PBA). AVNR’s complete response includes data from their STAR trial which was conducted under a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) agreement with the FDA. Both doses of AVP-923 met the primary efficacy endpoint in the STAR trial.

    You can expect increased volume to continue into this week as investors finalize their decision on whether to hold through FDA approval. It is possible that AVNR will hear from the FDA before Saturday. AVNR management has answered questions about the safety data in the STAR trial and most potential issues appear accounted for. The active ingredient in AVP-923 is in most cough suppressants sold over-the-counter and quinidine decreases gastrointestinal adverse events. I believe AVNR has demonstrated that AVP-923 offers the FDA an acceptable efficacy/safety profile for treatment of PBA.

    Biodel Inc. (NASDAQ: BIOD) has a PDUFA date of October 30th (Saturday) for Linjeta, which is a new injectable formulation of rapid-acting insulin for the treatment of type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Linjeta also appears to cause less weight gain and lower incidence of hypoglycemia, which are common side effects of current treatment options. BIOD also used the 505(b)(2) NDA, which typically has lower regulatory risk.

    Shares of BIOD have taken quite the beating throughout October, falling 30%. Many questions surround their Phase 3 data and how the FDA will view certain data from India that appear anomalous. Non-inferiority of Linjeta to Humulin was achieved without the data from India, it wasn’t achieved when the data from India was included. If and when this reaches the market, Linjeta could be a better insulin treatment for diabetics, especially those prone to hypoglycemic episodes or weight gain.

    EXACT Sciences (NASDAQ: EXAS) will be presenting the results of three pre-clinical validation studies at the American Association of Cancer Research Conference (AACR) in Philadelphia on 10/28/10 at 1PM EDT. They expect to start their pivotal study during 2nd/3rdQ 2011 to eventually support a FDA filing in 2012. In late July, EXAS reported preliminary results demonstrating their DNA methylation technology “detected 100 percent of colorectal cancers and precancers at a specificity cutoff of 100 percent in a preliminary study with colorectal tissue.”

    EXAS is up more than 130% from the July lows, so expectations for positive results are high. Positive results would lead the way forward for EXAS to capitalize on the colorectal screening market which sees roughly 25-30M screening tests per year, with another 20-25M patients who are not up-to-date with colon cancer screening. The company has been using 30% market penetration for their test which yields $1.2B market potential. There has also been noticable insider buying at EXAS. Keep in mind that EXAS has a $150M shelf registered, which is likely to be used once results are known.

    VIVUS Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) has a PDUFA date of October 28th (Thursday) for Qnexa for the treatment of obesity, including weight loss and maintenance of weight loss, in patients who are obese or overweight with co-morbidities such as hypertension, type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia or central adiposity. After the trading volatility that ARNA saw last week, it’s likely that VVUS could see some movement for those speculating on approval.

    In my opinion, VVUS has a stronger case for approval than ARNA. Considering ARNA was given a CRL with uncertain terms, this could give VVUS a boost. The FDA questioned the marginal efficacy of Lorcaserin (for ARNA), a problem that Qnexa does not have. Another important fact to consider: VVUS had an SPA for their pivotal trial results, which demonstrated very significant efficacy. Recently released results from their long-term (2-year) SEQUEL study did not show any safety problems and reiterated the considerable efficacy seen with Qnexa. Weight-loss of 11.4% (26 lbs) in the high-dose Qnexa and 10.4% (23 lbs) in the low-dose group. It is unclear if the FDA will have had time to review this data. They might not get approval now, but they appear to have the quickest route to approval.

    Disclosure: Long AVNR


    Market Confirms a Sell Signal

    On Thursday, negative news from Europe, mostly positive earnings news from the United States, and finally the death of a despot, propelled stocks in a series of dizzying swings. Up and down they went from down 39 points on the Dow on the opening to up 75 points by 10 a.m., then down 175 points by noon, and up 190 points by 3 p.m. But when the final bell ended trading, the major indices were mixed. On balance little had changed.

    Despite the wild trading, volume was light with just 957 million shares trading on the NYSE and 539 million on the Nasdaq. And breadth was break-even with a small number of advancers over decliners on the Big Board and a few more decliners on the Nasdaq.�

    Investors appeared perplexed as the media pushed for a breakout from the range-bound tedium that has gripped stocks since August. But with a VIX reading of almost 35 and up for three consecutive days, it looks like the traders will prevail for an indefinite period of time.�

     

    On Wednesday, the S&P 500 reversed at 1,230, which exactly matches the high of Aug. 31. This not only enforces 1,230 as a very important resistance number but creates an ominous bearish double-top. It also tells us that the seemingly minor support line at 1,190 had better hold since the next support is at the important 50-day moving average at 1,177. To add further grief for the bulls, the stochastic issued a confirmed sell signal.

    The Nasdaq�s chart is slightly weaker than the S&P 500�s. Note that it closed below the bottom of the support zone of 2,600 to 2,668. Its next major support is at the 50-day moving average at 2,518, and its stochastic also triggered a confirmed sell signal. (If you�re looking for specific ways to play the current market through options, click here.)

    One widely followed strategy that has caught the attention of market timers has a record success that makes it worthy of our study. It goes by several names: �Best Six Months Switching Strategy,� �The Halloween Effect,� and �Sell in May And Go Away� are some of the catchy titles.

    The method is simple: Buy the 30 stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Nov. 1 and sell them on April 30. Since 1950, there have been only nine years that the �Six Months Strategy� failed to perform. The method has been studied by academics and successfully tested in other global markets. The results show that this discipline beats buying and holding by an enormous margin.

    But it is Sy Harding, from streetsmartpost.com, who applied a timing mechanism that resulted in even better numbers. Sy discovered that if the MACD indicator was on a buy signal on Oct. 16, the index should be bought. But if the MACD is on a sell signal, it is best to wait until the next buy signal is given. Further, the best time to sell is when the MACD is on a sell signal on April 20. If it is not, he waits until the indicator flashes its next sell signal before he exits stocks.

    The results show that if $10,000 was invested and held for the entire 61-year period, it would have gained $578,395. But if invested using his strategy, it would have gained $1,581,000, while if invested in the six months starting in May, it would have lost $6,384. (See The Stock Trader�s Almanac results here.) On Monday we will apply the study to the current market.

    Can Shrinking Unemployment Save These 5 Stocks?

    On the news of jobless claims achieving their nadir, at least since April 2008 anyway, my thoughts turn to companies that may see something of a bounce as a result. While I have my doubts 4000 fewer souls seeking unemployment benefits can favorably impact an entire industry, I will concede the unquantifiable psychological factors that influence our markets are frequently less than rational. That said, I’m going to walk you through 5 companies which may benefit, in whole or in part, from the happy news. From a value investor paradigm, I will offer my opinion on the prudence of including them in your investment strategy.

    Let’s begin with the poster child of the industry, Monster Worldwide, Inc. (MWW). This small cap ($971.13 million) is trading at about $7.89 per share which translates to 23.07 times earnings. The price/earnings growth ratio is 1.16. Return on equity is anemic at 3.74%. MWW’s price to book is a fractional 0.81. Year over year quarterly revenue growth is 13.20% and earnings growth is non-existent. Monster’s financial strength looks decent with debt equity and current ratios of 18.60 and 0.95 respectively. A word of caution…Monster’s balance sheet carries $1.22 billion in goodwill which creates a favorable distortion in the current ratio.

    Monster has probably received one of the worst ‘beat-downs’ the staffing industry has ever experienced. In a time of record unemployment, one might think that anCa enterprise that exists for the purpose of matching people to employers would be booming. The sad reality is there just were too few jobs available. No job match, no revenue! Monster owners saw a percentage change in shareholder value of -69.54% from its 52 week high of $25.90. Then along comes LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD), an established social networking site with a business and professional bent, and begins offering employment services and diminishes Monster’s market share. I’ll take a look at it next. As for Monster as an investment, I’ll have to pass. There are but 2 ways to come out on top with this stock, a.) if the rumors of acquisition by a private equity firm come to pass or b.) Monster’s loose alliance with Facebook bears fruit.

    LinkedIn Corporation is a mid cap ($6.23 billion) trading at about $63.90 per share. Its trailing twelve month price/earnings ratio is 875.34 with a price/earnings growth ratio of 2.54. Return on equity is a lackluster 3.96%. The price to book is predictably outrageous at 15.20. Year over year quarterly revenue growth is 125.70% and earnings growth is non-existent. LinkedIn’s financial strength is difficult to judge with a non-existent debt equity ratio, but the current ratio of 2.66 sends a positive signal. LinkedIn does not technically belong in this group, but I felt that its obvious venture into the staffing game required that we take a look. It is, as I’m sure you know, a recent IPO, insufficiently vetted for any value investor to entertain. By any measure, this company doesn’t blow my skirt up.

    ManpowerGroup (MAN) is a mid cap ($2.94 billion) trading at about $36.09 per share. There is no price/earnings ratio and the price/earnings growth ratio is 0.76. Price to book is 1.16. Manpower’s return on equity is in the negative at -6.14%. Quarterly year over year revenue growth is 16.30% and quarterly year over year earnings growth is 55.20%. The debt/equity ratio is solid at 27.85 as is the current ratio at 1.32. I’m also unimpressed with the nearly $1 billion in goodwill on the balance sheet although I must say that management seems to be gradually reducing it from previously higher levels. ManpowerGroup’s share price has declined -48.20 as a percentage change from its 52 week high of $69.67. Not as steep as the decline of MWW, but a deep cut none-the-less. I’m sure you won’t be shocked to learn that I harbor no plans to add this filly to my stable.

    Kelly Services (KELYA) is a small cap ($509.93 million) trading at $13.85 which is just 9.60 times trailing twelve month earnings. Kelly boasts a favorable price/earnings growth ratio of 0.58 as well. Equally pleasing is the fractional price to book of 0.78. Bazzinga! Value stock! Return on equity is not terribly impressive at 8.76% but quarterly year-over-year revenue growth is at least in positive territory at 9.70%, as is quarterly year-over-year earnings growth at 105.20%. The debt/equity ratio is moderately corrupted by $67.3 million in goodwill but at a modest 12.02 and a better than average current ratio of 1.61. The company has weathered the storm better than Monster, and better than ManpowerGroup, experiencing a -39.49% change in share value from its 52 week high of $22.89. More to the point, Kelly’s financial strength has weathered the trials better than its price would indicate. I’m on board with this company. I have to say KELYA, helya!

    Robert Half International Inc. (RHI), the Saks Fifth Avenue of the group, in terms of clientele, is a mid cap ($4.05 billion) trading at $28.34 which is 31.04 times trailing twelve month earnings. RHI’s price/earnings growth ratio is an impressive 0.93. Price to book is rather off-putting at 5.11. Return on equity is the best we’ve seen in the group today at 16.09%. Quarterly year-over-year revenue growth is well into positive territory at 20.50%, as is quarterly year-over-year earnings growth at 114.20%. The debt/equity ratio is fractional at just 0.21 and the current ratio is almost as impressive at 2.08. The balance sheet is also tainted with a dose of goodwill ($189.79 million), but much less so than others mentioned here. It has held up shareholder value quite well, reflecting a modest decline of 17.28 as percentage change from its 52 week high of $34.26. I like what I see here, and suppressing my revulsion for the high price/earnings ratio and price to book, add this to my portfolio…with big teeth.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Global Slowdown Ahead, Recession Not Likely

    Many of the readers of my articles should know by now that I place a large emphasis on monitoring the business cycle. The chief reason for this is that the business cycle plays a huge role in investment returns. During economic expansions, equities typically outperform fixed income investments, while the converse is typically the case during economic downturns. Additionally, equity returns among various sectors such as early cyclicals (financials, consumer discretionary), late-stage cyclicals (energy, basic materials), and non-cyclicals (consumer staples, health care) fluctuate depending on where we are, which is often referred to as sector rotation.

    Knowing where we are within the business cycle can help investors better position themselves for superior returns. Current analysis of the business cycle suggests a period of slower growth ahead, not just in the U.S. but also globally.

    Head of ECRI Calling for Global Slowdown Ahead

    Lakshman Achuthan, founder and managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), is calling for a slowdown in global economic growth by this summer, making this call in January in a report to clients well ahead of the now-visible cracks in global growth. Shown below is the ECRI’s Leading Indicator of Industrial Growth (top line of figure) that provides a long lead time to global industrial production and commodity inflation. It peaked late in 2010 and is forecasting a slowdown in industrial growth by this summer and weakness persisting through much of the rest of the year.

    Global Industrial Growth Downturn

    Based on our Long Leading Index of global industrial growth, we expect a downturn to start by summer. Beforehand, prominent shorter-leading indicators of industrial growth, like JoC-ECRI industrial commodity price inflation, will start weakening.


    Source: ECRI

    Explaining the call for a global growth slowdown ahead, Lakshman Achuthan was recently interviewed on Yahoo’s The Daily Ticker, with excerpts from the interview provided below (emphasis added).

    Global Slowdown to Hit by Summer, Even for U.S., Says Achuthan

    The world is headed for an economic slowdown, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) Long Leading Index of global industrial growth.

    "It is not country specific, but imagine if you could add up all the activity in factories around the world and see if it was accelerating or decelerating, that is what this indicator is focused on," says Lakshman Achuthan founder and managing director of the research center. "And it has been telling us very clearly, unambiguously, that we have a peak in global industrial growth this summer …”

    The Good And The Bad

    The good news as the slowdown quickly approaches is that Achuthan does not believe another recession is headed our way.

    The bad news is he says "the U.S. economy will not escape" the downturn, but will "participate in it … and in one way, shape or form, it is going to impact this recovery."

    My own analysis lines up with Achuthan as my OECD CLI Diffusion Index (orange line below) has peaked and has been turning down now for several months, as fewer and fewer OECD nations are experiencing accelerating growth. While many global economies are already beginning to decelerate, more than 90% of OECD countries are experiencing positive economic growth.

    This can be seen by the blue line below, which shows the percentage of OECD nations with expanding economies. We have had two growth slowdowns over the last eight years that did not lead to a global recession. We had one in late 2004 as well as in 2010, as my OECD Diffusion Index fell off sharply, though the percentage of OECD economies expanding showed more countries expanding (> 50%) than contracting.

    [Click all to enlarge]


    Source: Bloomberg

    Both of those global slowdowns witnessed flat-to-negative one-year returns in the S&P 500 but no bear market. This was not the case in 2008, as the global slowdown turned into an outright recession as we went from 86% of OECD countries experiencing expanding growth heading into 2008, which then plummeted to 0% by the fall, which also produced the first bear market in the U.S. since 2000.

    As we sit right now, there is clear evidence that the U.S., as well as the global economy, will experience a growth relapse ahead, according to the ECRI. The three U.S. regional Federal Reserve surveys below are rolling over and the prices paid component suggests U.S. growth may continue to slow throughout the rest of the year.


    Source: Bloomberg

    While the case for a growth slowdown ahead is easily made, there is not enough evidence to make a recession call. Our recession model typically provides several months' warning before a recession begins; the 20% mark is often the line in the sand with only one false signal (1987) over the last 30 years. Given the current reading rests at a 3% probability of a recession beginning over the next six months, I am in agreement with the ECRI’s Achuthan that a recession is not in the cards as of yet.


    Source: Bloomberg

    Investment Implications

    Rather than reinventing the wheel, I’ll refer readers to the article I wrote last week in which the last portion of the article highlighted what the investment implications were for a slowdown ahead (Why Bill Gross is Wrong … In the Short Term). In a nutshell, defense is likely to outperform over the next six months, which would mean that in terms of asset classes, bonds will likely outperform stocks. In terms of sectors, the non-cyclical sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples will benefit from sector rotation as investors decrease their allocation to cyclical sectors like consumer discretionary and financials and lower their portfolio’s risk profile.

    Incoming data will be key to monitor ahead to gauge whether we will reaccelerate like we did at the end of last summer, or if the coming growth slowdown will morph into another recession.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.