Goldman Sachs’s Simona Jankowski today cut her estimate for smartphone sales this year, citing impressions gathered by the firm’s tour of Asia last week, which confirmed concerns about slowing demand and inventory reductions.
The forecast is split between handset cuts for emerging markets and smartphone cuts for developed markets, with Jankowski writing, “we are lowering handset units primarily in China, Western Europe, Brazil and the rest of LatAm, while the reductions in smartphones units reflect weakness in North America and Western Europe.”
In addition to a challenging macroeconomic environment (note handset unit growth has an 80% correlation to global GDP), both North America and Western Europe are facing the initial pressures of reduced carrier subsidies and/or higher upgrade fees, which could elongate the replacement cycle and slow smartphone sales. In China, while 3G smartphone demand appears to be slowing a bit, EDGE demand remains strong. Also, the lower-price �white box� market remains strong, and analyst Donald Lu estimates that the combined smartphone chip shipment of Mediatek, Spreadtrum, and MStar will increase from 10 mn in 2011 to 110 mn in 2012 (though not all of them going to China).
She also cites a wave of “negative preannouncements from RIM, HTC, and Nokia, weaker shipment targets at Huawei and ZTE, and Samsung tracking in line at best for the quarter.”
Jankowski’s projecting 1.84 billion handsets will be sold this year, down from a prior 1.95 billion estimate. That’s a year-over-year rise of 4% in unit sales, down from the prior 10% increase projection.
Smartphone units may total 649 million, down from her prior 668 million estimate, representing 38% growth, down from 42% growth.
Jankowski cut her numbers through 2015 as well.
Jankowski sees Research in Motion (RIMM) losing its first-ever decline in subscriber count this quarter under pressure from competition. She rates the shares Neutral with a $13 price target. �Jankowski doesn’t formally cover competitors�Apple�(AAPL), Nokia�(NOK) and�Samsung�Electronics (005930KS), and doesn’t have specific recommendations about their shares.
I would note that�Nokia stock is coming under substantial pressure today, down 23 cents, or almost 10%, at $2.15. RIM shares are off 74 cents, or 7.5%, at $9.12.
No comments:
Post a Comment