Senators Take ‘Blank Slate’ Approach to Tax Reform

After working on bipartisan tax reform for the past three years, the Senate Finance Committee's leaders have said they want to start with a blank slate.

Chairman Max Baucus and the committee’s ranking member, Sen. Orrin Hatch, sent a letter to their fellow lawmakers Thursday asking for their input by July 26 on how to reform the tax code, as they’re “now entering the home stretch.”

Baucus, D-Mont., and Hatch, R-Utah, told their colleagues “now it is your turn” to give your ideas and “partnership to get tax reform over the finish line.” Both said they want to complete reforming the tax code in this Congress.

To ensure “that we end up with a simpler, more efficient and fairer tax code, we believe it is important to start with a ‘blank slate’—that is, a tax code without all of the special provisions in the form of exclusions, deductions and credits and other preferences that some refer to as ‘tax expenditures,’” the two write. “This blank slate is not, of course, the end product, nor the end of the discussion.”

The senators went on to say that “some of the special provisions serve important objectives.” Indeed, they said, “some existing tax expenditures should be preserved in some form. But the tax code is also littered with preferences for special interests.”

To clear out all the unproductive provisions and simplify in tax reform, Baucus and Hatch said they “plan to operate from an assumption that all special provisions are out unless there is clear evidence that they: help grow the economy, make the tax code fairer, or effectively promote other important policy objectives.”

Hatch and Baucus asked that lawmakers submit legislative language or detailed proposals for what tax expenditures meet the above mentioned tests and should be included in a reformed tax code, “as well as other provisions that should be added, repealed or reformed as part of tax reform” by July 26. “We will give special attention to proposals that are bipartisan,” they said.

The two senators explained in their letter that the "blank slate approach would allow significant deficit reduction or rate reduction, while maintaining the current level of progressivity." The amount of rate reduction “would of course depend on how much revenue was reserved for deficit reduction, if any, and from which income groups,” they said.

The specter of a tax code stripped of "special provisions" is stoking worries in much of the financial sector. Cities and other localities have been nervous for some time about the effects of a possible end to the muni bond tax exemption.

Brian Graff, CEO of the American Society of Pension Professionals and Actuaries, says the senators’ blank-slate approach means that to begin the tax reform process, “the tax deferral incentive for retirement savings is to be thrown out along with every other tax incentive in the Internal Revenue Code that represents permanent lost revenue.”

But Graff said that while ASPPA “appreciates the senators’ acknowledgement that some tax incentives should be preserved — and we believe the incentive for retirement savings is clearly one of them … we are disappointed that there is no recognition that the tax incentive for retirement savings is a deferral, not a true ‘tax expenditure,’” he said in a statement.

Tens of millions of workers, Graff continued, “count on their employer-based retirement plans, and it is the tax incentive that powers these programs. In fact, the primary factor in determining whether or not a worker is saving for retirement is whether or not they have a retirement plan at work.”

The benefits of this deferral incentive “are very real,” Graff said, “and the revenue that would be gained by eliminating it is not. Every dollar of retirement savings excluded from income today will be included as income when it is paid out in retirement. Treating the retirement savings income deferral like a permanent exclusion is terribly misleading, and could lead to bad policy decisions.”

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Check out Repeal of Muni Tax-Exempt Status Would Devastate Counties: Report on AdvisorOne.

SanDisk: Likely to Beat Earnings Est. - Analyst Blog

We expect memory chip maker SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) to beat expectations when it reports second quarter 2013 results on Jul 17.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that SanDisk is likely to beat earnings because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.

Positive Zacks ESP: Expected Surprise Prediction or ESP (Read: Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method), which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is at +4.55%. This is very meaningful and a leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise for shares.

Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy): Note that stocks with Zacks Ranks of #1, #2 and #3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings. The sell rated stocks (#4 and #5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.

The combination of SanDisk's Zacks Rank # 1 (Strong Buy) and +4.55% ESP makes us very confident in looking for a positive earnings beat on Jul 17.

What is Driving the Better Than Expected Earnings?

Improved supply/demand metrics for NAND and solid state drive (SSD), strength across OEM (original equipment manufacturer) and Retail channels and tailwinds from weak yen are expected to lead to a positive earnings surprise in the upcoming quarter.

The positive trend is evident from the trailing four-quarter average surprise of 22.9%. This was possible mainly due to solid recovery in the mobile embedded and retail businesses, strength across geographies and favorable supply/demand metrics.

Other Stocks to Consider

Apart from SanDisk, we also expect earnings beat from the following stocks.

Earthlink Inc. (ELNK), Earnings ESP of +33.33% and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Rambus Inc. (RMBS), Earnings ESP of +9.09% and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Spreadtrum Communications Inc. (SPRD), Earnings ESP of +9.68% and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

This Company is Really Cooking

There is a company that takes a unique approach to its business plan, and even though it might miss estimates when it announces earnings tomorrow, remains a company for you to have faith in, writes MoneyShow's Jim Jubak, also of Jubak's Picks.

Take it from someone who has been in and out of Middleby (MIDD) shares over the last decade: the big problem can be finding a way to get back after you've sold because the stock has hit what looks like a peak. (I added Middleby to my Jubak Picks 50 portfolio on May 3 when the shares traded at $144.78. To see the write-up on my annual changes to this portfolio click on this post.)

But there is a chance that we'll get a slight dip this week after the company announces earnings on August 7. Analysts project that earnings per share will grow by just 6.6% year over year. That could qualify as a disappointment after the 15.8% year over year growth reported last quarter. The company might even miss, although Middleby has beaten estimates for the last five quarters in a row.

Why do you want to own Middleby? Here's what the company does in the fragmented industry for cooking equipment for restaurants and food processors. It acquires a smaller specialized maker of kitchen equipment for the food industry, such as 2012 acquisition Nieco, a maker of automated broiler equipment, or Stewart Systems, a maker of bakery equipment. Then, using its size and management skills, it finds ways to cut costs in those acquisitions, while also increasing sales from those acquired businesses by leveraging its existing customer base. And quite a customer base it is too: Middleby has the Number One market share in equipment for pizza chains, Number One in convenience stores, Number One in fast casual, Number One in chicken outlets—you get the idea. In fact, the only mass-market restaurant segment that I could find where Middleby wasn't Number One was a Number Two position in the quick service (fast food) segment.

Middleby's future growth will come from continued penetration and consolidation in the still fragmented US market for restaurant equipment, plus a move into international markets. There, Middleby's history of working with restaurant customers to understand what equipment will work for them is important. Middleby isn't going to attempt to jam US style equipment down the throats of non-US restaurants, but instead will use its investment in R&D to come up with products suited to individual international markets. For India and China, for example, Middleby has rolled out tandoor ovens, samosa fryers, and rice steamers. (International markets now account for 31% of sales.) The other source of growth for Middleby is in the industrial food processing and baking segment, now 30% of sales. The selling proposition in all these markets is simple: Middleby cranks out a steady stream of innovative products that lower costs to restaurants and food processors—by cutting the time from order to food delivery, (what's know as ticket time, for example)—while also providing measurable improvements in customer satisfaction.

Wall Street projects earnings growth of 16.3% for 2013 and 17.7% for 2014. The shares currently trade at 27.8 times trailing 12-month earnings per share and 24.4 times projected 2013 earnings.

Full disclosure: I don't own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio. When in 2010 I started the mutual fund I manage, Jubak Global Equity Fund, I liquidated all my individual stock holdings and put the money into the fund. The fund may or may not now own positions in any stock mentioned in this post. The fund did not own shares of Middleby as of the end of June. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of June see the fund's portfolio here.