2014 Top Stocks Market, Best Stocks Investment In 2014, Top Stocks For 2014: 1/20/13

The Dow Finishes Up a Stellar Week

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI ) closed out a strong week with another solid performance, gaining 71 points, or 0.5%, to reach 13,896. For the week, the Dow gained 300 points, or 2.3%, rising to a five-year high, while the S&P 500 finished above 1,500 for the first time since 2007.

Macroeconomic indicators on housing and jobs are moving in the right direction, corporate earnings are strong, and concerns over budget troubles and Europe have mostly faded.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG ) helped keep the rally going today, delivering better-than-expected earnings in its fiscal second quarter. The consumer goods giant earned $1.22 per share against Wall Street estimates of just $1.11, a gain driven by higher prices and new products such as single-use units of Tide detergent. Organic sales grew 3% in the quarter, a greater increase than expected, as the household products maker has struggled to find new avenues for growth in recent years. The company also boosted its 2013 EPS forecast to $3.97-$4.07 and increased its buyback range. P&G shares finished the day up 4%.

New home sales for December were lower than expected at 369,000, but the report still closed out 2012 with the first annual gain in new home sales since 2005, and the highest number since 2009. Industry analysts expect the upward trend to continue in 2013. In Europe, a German business index also made a surprising jump in December, dissuading fears of a fourth-quarter contraction there, sending the German DAX up 1.4%.

In other Dow stocks making moves, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM ) climbed 1.7% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the big bank to a buy."Analyst Matthew O'Connor said JPMorgan "was the best-positioned market-sensitive bank for a pickup in consumer loan growth." It also noted that the bank's annual operating expenses may drop by as much as $5 billion in part because of a decline in mortgage service costs.

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ) was the blue chips' biggest loser today, falling 1.1% on essentially no company-related news. The CEO of Wal-Mart International met yesterday with India's trade minister at Davos to discuss new rules on Foreign Direct Investment in the country. Wal-Mart is still working out the best strategy for entering the subcontinent.

To find out what else JPMorgan Chase is up to, get a copy of our new premium research report, which features an inside look at the company's opportunities and risks. As a free bonus, it comes with a year's worth of updates to keep you in the know as breaking news and earnings reports come out. To get access to this exclusive package now, all you have to do is click right here.

Top Stocks For 1/26/2013-11

Reported By: Soha CRWE Newswire Mideast correspondent

The head of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan General David Petraeus has said that Osama bin Laden is `far buried` in the remote mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan but capturing the iconic figure remains a key task.

In a television interview he said `I don’t think anyone knows where Osama bin Laden is`. `The fact that it took him four weeks to get a congratulatory message out or a message of condolence�indicates literally how far buried he is probably in the very, very most remote and mountainous region`.

The General said that despite having difficulty in locating him, Osama remains an iconic figure and I think capturing or killing (him) is still a very, very important task for all of those who are engaged in counter-terrorism around the world`.

While talking about the prospect of eventual reconciliation with the Taliban he said `It doesn’t mean that Mullah Omar is about to stroll down main street in Kabul anytime soon and raise his hand and swear an oath on the Constitution of Afghanistan`.

But he said there was every possibility, I think, that there can be low – and- mid-level reintegration and indeed some fracturing of the senior leadership that could be really defined as reconciliation`.

Why Synaptics Shares Soared

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of touchscreen technology specialist Synaptics (NASDAQ: SYNA ) climbed 15% today after its quarterly results and guidance topped Wall Street expectations.

So what: Synaptics' second-quarter results -- adjusted EPS of $0.53 on revenue of $143 million versus the consensus of $0.45 and $137.6 million, respectively -- and current-quarter outlook were so strong that analysts have no choice but to raise their price targets on the stock. Strong demand for the company's mobile phone touchscreen applications is helping offset continued weakness in its PC products segment, reinforcing recent optimism over its growth prospects going forward.

Now what: Management now sees third-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.50-$0.58 on revenue of $140 million-$148 million, well ahead of Wall Street's view of $0.40 and $133.5 million. "Based on our strong product line-up, Synaptics is executing very well across our key markets, and we believe our ongoing technology road map positions us for continued success across future product generations," CEO Rick Bergman said. Of course, with the stock now up about 60% over the past three months alone, I'd wait for some of the excitement to fade before betting on that bull talk.

Interested in more info on Synaptics? Add it to your watchlist.

2013 and beyond
The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock it is in our brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." I invite you to take a copy, free for a limited time. Just�click here�to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Get Ahead of Semiconductor Industry Growth with These Seven Investments

The semiconductor industry struggled to maintain growth in 2011 - but that's starting to change.

The industry this year was stunted by slow global economic growth, reduced consumer demand, and supply-chain disruptions due to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Industry revenue was down 2.5 percentage points in the second quarter, mostly due to Japanese semiconductor companies that suffered facility damage.

While the industry's third-quarter performance was weaker than predicted, it was an improvement over previous quarter numbers. According to estimates released Nov. 17 by market researcher IHS iSuppli, semiconductor industry revenue in the third quarter grew by 3.5% to just over $78.5 billion.

Forecasts for the next two years offer an even brighter outlook.

The Semiconductor Intelligence blog compiled forecasts from eight industry research organizations and found growth estimates for 2012 ranging from 4.0% to 10.4%.

Industry executives expressed similar optimism at an investor conference Nov. 15 in Barcelona, Spain. They forecast a "return to normal business conditions in the second quarter of 2012," once inventories of unsold chips stemming from the slowdown in consumer spending are cleared.

And IHS predicted a much stronger growth rebound in 2013.

Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) President and Chief Executive Officer Paul Otellini said that, while economic conditions and consumer demand will always be a factor, innovation is driving renewed growth in the semiconductor industry.

"Computing is in a constant state of evolution," Otellini told this fall's Intel Developer Forum in San Francisco. "The unprecedented demand for computing from the client devices to the cloud is creating significant opportunity for the industry."

Investing in the Semiconductor IndustryWhile the semiconductor industry's top performers have shown modest gains from a year ago - Intel's 14.3% rise being one example - bigger declines elsewhere have offset the winners. That inconsistency within the broad semiconductor sector - Google Finance lists 189 companies on its industry roster, divided into roughly a dozen subsectors - is why some chip stock investors are frustrated.

The good news for investors is there's an increasing need for semiconductor companies that's not going away. Chips are now essential to virtually every product that uses power, from mainframes, PCs and laptops to TV sets, video-game consoles and mobile phones. Without chips, modern cars won't run, airplanes can't fly and many now-routine medical procedures would be impossible.

The key for investors is to focus on companies in the most in-demand subsectors, as well as industry leaders best positioned to profit from renewed growth in 2012 and 2013.

It's the subsector performance that holds the industry's potential for a rebound in 2012, with 15% growth projected in microprocessors, image sensors and NAND flash memory segments. Sensor and actuator sales will grow more than 5%.

Investors also should consider the sector's smaller, more specialized players, which at their current low prices are great candidates for merger & acquisition (M&A) activity.

According to the Thomson Reuters Investment Banking Scorecard, M&A activity in the semiconductor industry has more than doubled in 2011, rising to a total of $30.9 billion, a 111% increase over the same period in 2010. Overall, total M&A activity for 2011 has reached the highest level since 2006.

Even though analysts expect M&A activity in the sector to remain somewhat subdued in the first quarter of 2012, the expected increase in industry-wide product demand could spark a new surge in takeovers in the second quarter.

Seven Ways to Play the Semiconductor Industry As the semiconductor industry picks up growth again, here are five stocks we like now:

Microchip Technology Inc. (Nasdaq: MCHP), recent price $34.91 - Microchip develops controllers with reprogrammable memory technology. The bulk of its sales are to other semiconductor companies, meaning its revenue is among the sector's first to grow when an upturn begins - making it an industry bellwether. The company reported a slight third-quarter drop in both revenue and profits (40 cents per share), but analysts expect an upturn in the fourth quarter and stronger performance in 2012, possibly leading the stock back to its 52-week high of $41.50. It pays a dividend of $1.40, good for a 4.1% yield.
NVIDIA Corp. (Nasdaq: NVDA), recent price $15.48 - The inventor of the graphics processing unit (GPU), which makes speeds up the visuals of computers, smartphones and numerous other devices, is a supplier for electronics-equipment (OEM) makers worldwide. The stock closely tracked the SOX Index for most of the year, topping above $26 a share in February, then falling to $11.47 in early October. However, it bounced nicely early in the quarter, getting a boost from its third-quarter earnings report, which showed a rise in profits to 29 cents a share, up from 25 and 22 cents in the prior two quarters.
Avago Technologies Ltd. (Nasdaq: AVGO), recent price $31.04 - Based in Singapore, Avago designs and develops analog semiconductor devices, offering more than 6,500 products for firms worldwide. The company, which ranks 20th in terms of global market share, reported revenue of $603 million and profits of 57 cents a share for its most recent quarter, up from 54 cents and 48 cents in the prior two periods. Analysts estimate current full-year profits will total $2.68 a share and climb to $2.83 next year. The average one-year forecast for the stock is $39.29, taking it back to its 2011 high set in July. The stock pays a small dividend, yielding just over 1%.
Xilinx Inc. (Nasdaq: XLNX), recent price $33.36 - Silicon Valley-based Xilinx was one of the steadiest sector performers during the 2008-2009 economic collapse. Xilinx, which makes programmable logic devices for a variety of uses, in its 2011 fiscal year reported a big revenue jump to $2.37 billion. Though earnings slipped a bit in the most recent quarter, analysts remain positive overall, with 12 of 27 surveyed ranking the stock a "Buy" and the rest advising investors to hold. The stock pays a $0.76 dividend, providing a yield of 2.3%.
Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC), recent price $25.01 - It's hard to bet against No. 1, and that's Intel's position in the chip sector - by a wide margin. With 2010 revenue reaching more than $40 billion, Intel controlled 13.2% of the chip market, and that dominance is expected to grow as it continues to grab larger shares of the notebook and smartphone markets. Its processing and power units are also getting stronger at a pace well ahead of the rest of the industry, ensuring continued growth. With earnings projected to climb to $2.57 a share in 2012, the stock is rated "overweight" or "hold" by 45 analysts surveyed by MarketWatch. The stock also pays a dividend of 84 cents a share, giving it a healthy yield of 3.4%.

Intel is working on a number of innovations, including technology that increases battery life and aids in the new age of "always-on, always-connected" computing, and a chip "that could allow a computer to power up on a solar cell the size of a postage stamp." Otellini also announced a new joint venture with Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG) that will accelerate Intel's penetration into the smartphone market.

For investors who prefer a more diversified approach to playing the sector, two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) worth a look are:

iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund (Nasdaq: SOXX), recent price $51.30 - This fund holds 52 stocks, weighted based on market capitalization, roughly tracking the Philadelphia Stock Exchange's Semiconductor Index. Its largest holdings are Intel, Broadcom, Applied Materials, Texas Instruments and Altera. Its expense ratio is 0.48%.
SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (NYSEArca: XSD), recent price $46.32 - This fund holds 63 securities in the chip industry, with holdings equally weighted and regularly rebalanced - unlike other chip ETFs, which are all capitalization weighted. The fund's expense ratio is 0.35%.

Survey Shows Many Advisors Grew Business, Despite Volatility

Advisors communicated with clients more frequently and felt more pressure to keep clients satisfied in 2011 vs. 2010, according to the results of an SEI Quick Poll released Thursday. And while 2011 was a year of worry for both investors and advisors, it was also an opportunity: 40% of advisors surveyed said their firms grew by more than 10% in 2011 in terms of net new assets, and 12% said their practices expanded by more than 20%.

“Everyone knows the market volatility unnerved investors in 2011. But, in reality, it also rattled financial advisors as well,” said Steve Onofrio, managing director of the SEI Advisor Network, in a press release. “While some were distracted by the market volatility, the best advisors continued to focus on what investors want and need–personal communication. And it isn’t simply a matter of increasing communication; advisors also need to focus on delivering quality content in a consistent and deliberate manner.”

Due to intense market volatility, advisors said many clients realized “they’re not as risk tolerant as they originally thought,” according to the SEI poll, which was conducted in December and included the views of 200 financial advisors.

The results also showed that a large number of advisors, 53%, believe their clients’ mindset could best be described as “apprehensive,” and managing volatility was the most popular investment strategy in 2011.

“The past few years have had a profound impact on investors and what they are looking for,” said advisor Patrick Tucker, a principal at Meridian Management Inc. in Omaha, Neb., in a statement. “They aren’t just looking for more investment reports or lengthy documents explaining the current status of the financial markets.

“While they value these things,” Tucker continued, “first and foremost they want personal communication–direct contact through calls, emails, and meetings–with their financial advisor about issues that matter like the status of their goals, personal situation and plans for the future. Advisors who step up and meet the challenge will be successful in 2012.”

In 2011, nearly half (45%) of advisors surveyed said their top priority was to “strengthen existing client relationships.” Half said they “made great progress” on their top priority, while roughly one-third (38%) said they took “a few steps forward and a few steps back.”

Hungover at Work: Drinking Costs U.S. Economy $200 Billion in Production

How do you unwind after a long day at work? Do you listen to music? Exercise? Take a nap? These are all well and good, but a very large majority of us hit the bottle. And it's now coming to the attention of countries – and their economies-- that perhaps we have a global drinking problem...

Now before you assume the next words are, “we brought you here because we love you and are concerned about your drinking,” don't worry, this is no intervention.

Recent studies have shown that work productivity and drinking have considerable connections and a “major negative impact” on overall productivity.

In England, researchers found that 14 million working days are lose each year, at the cost of £6.4 billion ($10.1 billion), due to lost productivity and absenteeism because of excessive drinking.

From The Telegraph,

Around 10 [million] men and women in England drink above the recommended guidelines and every day, about 200,000 people go to work in the U.K. with a hangover.

The charity Alcohol Concern of the U.K. has warned FTSE 250 companies about brushing aside drinking problems among their workers, as it can have a serious impact on overall work ethic and health.

The charity says that companies are doing very little beyond enabling the “obvious” rule prohibiting employees from being drunk at work. They are trying to convince companies to take a closer look at their financial losses incurred through workers' reduced performance caused by alcohol and create formal responsibilities to address these problems.

Alcohol Concern chief executive Eric Appleby says “it's costing the economy billions each year... The evidence is that boards are not taking the issue seriously.”

According to one source, alcohol related hospital visits are going to rise by 1.5 million in the next few years if the government does not take better action toward the issue in the U.K, which can result in £3.7 billion ($5.8 billion) in costs to the government's National Health Services.

This is a worldwide issue. With inflation rising across the globe, economies still trying to rebound-- or continuing to collapse-- and work demand soaring across all industries, drinking is a venting outlet. And the alcohol industry is one of the few sectors that continues to boom thanks to sinking morale.

An old adage is, “when all goes to hell, invest in gambling, tobacco, and alcohol” which it looks like many around the globe are doing.

Specifically in the United States, the Center For Disease Control and Prevention released a report on the economic costs of excessive drinking which addressed the adverse effects of excessive drinking on the economy.

Of the total economic costs of alcoholic consumption in the U.S., which was $233.5 billion during their study-year 2006, over 72% was the result of binge drinking. The last time the CDC conducted the same research back in 1998, the cost was $185 billion, which is a 21% increase in costs solely related to drinking.

“While health-care made up 11 percent of the $223.5 billion cost and motor vehicle accidents was only part of the miscellaneous category totaling 7.5 percent, loss of productivity was a little more than 72 percent of the entire economic loss.”

The study estimates an economic impact of close to $1,000 per person with relation to excessive drinking.

"The researchers found that about $94.2 billion, or 42 percent, of the total economic cost of excessive alcohol consumption in 2006 was picked up by federal, state, and local governments.

Another $92.9 billion, or 41.5 percent, was absorbed by the drinkers and their families, largely in the form of lower household income."

The global alcohol industry's global business figures are scarcely reported, as the numbers vary dramatically depending on the source, but according to a handful of medical journals the industry creates over $150 billion in global business. Therefore the the cost-benefit ratio between economic revenue for alcohol is, in fact, significantly lower than the amount being put back into the workforce through productivity.

So the next time you have the urge to excessively cope with the struggling economy and the rest of life's worries by hitting the bottle, think about your particular impact on the global economy. Actually, don't think like that, it may make your head spin even more than it already does at that barstool...

*Quoted excerpt from Huffington Post

Should You Buy the Dow — Walt Disney

Today, we”ll look at Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS). You know it’s a diversified entertaiment conglomerate, but how diversified is it? The company’s Media Networks segment includes TV production and networks (including ABC and ESPN); 46 owned radio stations; and Disney-branded Internet Web site businesses, as well as Club Penguin.

The Parks and Resorts segment owns and operates … well, you know. It also includes Disney Vacation Club, Disney Cruise Line and ESPN Zone facilities. The Studio Entertainment makes movies, music and live stage plays. The Consumer Products segment licenses Disney characters, and visual and literary properties to manufacturers, retailers, show promoters and publishers; and publishes books and magazines.

The key driving factor regarding Disney is the economy. However, because the company is so diversified, certain segments do worse than others in hard times, and others are able to hold their own. On the movie side, the purchases of Pixar and Marvel Studios really drive company revenues. These two premium studios execute flawlessly — none of their films have ever lost money and, in fact, recently have been outrageously profitable.

Stock analysts looking out five years on Disney see annualized earnings growth at 15%. At a stock price of $32, on FY 2011 earnings of $2.49, the stock presently trades at a P/E of 13. Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) and Viacom (NYSE:VIA) are the closest competitors, with P/Es of 13 and 25, respectively, so Disney is on the low end of the valuation scale.

Disney’s financials are stellar. The company carries $3.5 billion in cash and $9.2 billion in debt. Trailing 12-month cash flow was $3.7 billion. The company also had 4.5 times the amount of free cash flow necessary to pay its 1.2% dividend. Disney makes a lot of money and reinvests that cash right back into its gigantic business (movies cost a lot of money).

No insider purchases have been made in a long time, which is discouraging but not a deal-breaker.

Conclusion

If we put an 15 P/E on Disney, then, on projected 2015 earnings of $4.43 per share, and factor in 1.2% compounded dividend yield reinvested, we get a price target of $72. That’s an amazing total return of 120% from here, suggesting Disney falls into the category of both a value and a growth stock. Disney is a big buy to me.

I believe Disney is a buy for regular accounts.
I believe Disney is a buy for retirement accounts.

Lawrence Meyers does not own shares of any company mentioned.

Wynn Misses Expectations; U.S. and Macau Revenue Falls

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) shares initially fell after the company released disappointing earnings results after the bell on Tuesday, but they quickly broke back into positive territory, trading up a little less than 1%. Since the start of May, shares are down about 27%.

Wynn posted $1.38 of EPS, 16 cents below expectations. Revenue of $1.25 billion fell below expectations for $1.36 billion. Revenue was down in both the U.S. and Macau. Casino revenues in Las Vegas plunged 38% on a year-over-year basis.

“Net revenues for the second quarter of 2012 were $1,253.2 million, compared to $1,367.4 million in the second quarter of 2011. The revenue decline resulted from a 7.1% decrease in revenues from our Macau Operations and an 11.6% decline in our revenues in Las Vegas, as both properties were negatively impacted by lower hold in the 2012 quarter.”

The company also offered an update on its Cotai Strip property, where it will build a new casino resort.

“On May 2, 2012, Wynn Macau�s land concession contract was published in the official gazette of Macau. This concession contract has an initial term of 25 years with the right to renew it for additional successive periods, subject to government approval. The Company anticipates constructing a full scale integrated resort containing a casino, approximately 2,000 rooms and suites, convention, retail, entertainment and food and beverage offerings on this land. The Company currently estimates the project budget to be in the range of $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion.”

Against the Spread: 2011 NFL Picks: Week 11

After 10 weeks in this NFL season, you're be smarter to pick against me than with me.

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At the halfway point of the season, my record now stands at 16-27 with two ties, good for a miserable winning percentage of 35.5% in the 45 games I've picked so far. If you picked against me, you're sitting with a lovely 60% winning record. I suppose it's a good thing I'm not a portfolio manager, although I still might be doing better with my NFL picks than some hedge fund managers are doing this year.

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Speaking of picking stocks and picking NFL games, one of my weekly NFL picks sources made the interesting point of comparing Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow to K-cup maker Green Mountain Coffee Roasters(GMCR), a company targeted by hedge fund manager David Einhorn as a short opportunity. Comparing an embattled speculative name to another embattled speculative name isn't hard to do, even if we're talking about quarterbacks and coffee makers."How can you evaluate Tebow one way and others evaluate him another?" asks Paul Bessire, the general manager and creator of the Web site PredictionMachine.com. His Prediction Machine is a quantitative way to break down NFL games as it simulates each contest 50,000 times to come up with a pick against the spread."That is a type of product that never existed ever and how efficient it is," Bessire says of the Keurig maker. "But can they consistently produce results and it fades away? I think there are a lot of correlations there. It's identical to the Tebow situation right now. Will it work next year? Will people move on? It's been successful but it doesn't make sense to why it has been successful. You have to take it one game at a time."Bessire's point in comparing the two is to show how picking NFL games is not about speculation and noise -- it's about focusing on the matchups between two teams and coming to a conclusion that way. That has been difficult for some to deal with, even seasoned professionals in the Vegas sports gambling world."It's been a very strange year," says Bryan Leonard, a professional sports handicapper with Pregame.com who is also part of the Tuesday Group, a collection of professional bettors in Las Vegas who get together to handicap the games each week."It used to be, if you took the better quarterback or better defense, you were pretty safe to cover," he says. "But in many instances, picking the better quarterback hasn't lived up to expectations." Leonard also brings up Tebow, who managed to lead his team to victory in Week 10 despite completing only two passes all game. "The team has rallied around the idea of playing a different type of ball," he says. With that, let's get on to the picks for Week 11 of the NFL season. As I'll remind you through the entire season, these are for entertainment purposes only. Once again, I have enlisted the help of PredictionMachine.com's Paul Bessire, who offers analysis of the data his model provides for the games I've picked this week.I have also collected commentary from Bryan Leonard, whose analysis focuses on the spread movement by Vegas oddsmakers to determine where the public and professional money is moving on each game. These trends prove to be critical for bettors who are on the hunt for inefficiencies and value. Read on for the first game pick, where the New York Jets travel to play Tebow's Denver Broncos tonight. And as always, I encourage you to leave comments below with your favorite picks against the spread this week. I'm always looking to share ideas. Besides, what's more fun than talking about football betting?

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+6)

To be sure, any pick of the Denver Broncos this week should not be made because of a belief that Tim Tebow wins football games.

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I don't like Tim Tebow and I certainly don't like the Denver Broncos. This team's style of "winning" is against everything that makes football exciting. I know that a win is as good as any other win in the NFL, but that doesn't mean I have to enjoy watching games where Tebow throws fewer than 10 passes. I like watching accomplished offenses with solid running backs, legitimate deep threats in wide receivers, offensive lines that protect the quarterback, and quarterbacks who throw the ball for more than 200 yards per game. What bothers me about this game revolves more around the Jets. I lost on my pick of the Jets last week against the Patriots. The Jets, who lost to the Patriots earlier this year in New England, had the opportunity to show their home crowd and the entire nation on Sunday Night Football that they could hang with the Patriots. Instead, they were sleepwalking through an important division game. If they can't get up for the Patriots, how can I expect them to travel on short rest to Denver to win against Tebow's awful style of play?According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hilton posted a line of Jets -4.5 on Nov. 13. That line briefly dipped to -4 before jumping as high as Denver +6.5. The line looks to have settled now at Jets -6 going into tonight. To Prediction Machine's Bessire, that line is too high considering how competitive Denver is. "I like the Broncos here. Denver is structured in a way that is not conducive to blowing teams out or being blown out," Bessire says. "The Jets are much better against the pass than against the run. So a team built around the run rather than the pass is more likely to be successful against a team built like the Jets. And with Tebow, it's like preparing for a knuckle ball pitcher."Pregame.com's Leonard says he doesn't have anything on this game. "Guys who I respect like the Jets, but I can't lay the points," he says. "Denver has had success because they can take a lead and don't have to play from behind, which the exception of the Miami game. If the Jets get a lead in the game, Denver can't compete. The problem is that the Jets' offense is sluggish. I would instead take a look at the under in this game."The Pick: Broncos +6. We've seen how well the Jets play on the road this season (3 losses in 4 games, for those counting at home). Sure, they have a solid chance to win, considering they have one of the best defenses in the entire league while Denver is ranked somewhere around 20th. But the short week to prepare for such a strange offense could give the Jets trouble.

San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

If you're like me (and I pray you're not), you have zero luck picking any game that involves the San Diego Chargers. Last week's loss on the Chargers in their Thursday night game against the Oakland Raiders is the latest proof. So why am I going back this week to pick another Chargers game?

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The Chargers have to be the most disappointing team of this season, without a doubt. Philip Rivers was spoken of as an MVP candidate a few months ago. The only lead he holds now is in the interception category. We've all grown accustomed to waiting out a slow start for the Chargers in previous seasons. Halfway through this one, we now have to wonder if a better, stronger Chargers team that we've been waiting for will ever show up.Meanwhile, nearly everyone complained last season that the Bears didn't deserve to win 13 games and that they'd most certainly regress this season. While Chicago looked rough around the edges to start this season, they've really turned the ship around. The offensive line troubles that plagued the Bears appear to have been fixed. Quarterback Jay Cutler isn't on his back as often and Matt Forte is rushing the ball more and with more success. Of course, they may still be the NFL's luckiest team as they seem to be playing opponents at the most opportune time (see: the Lions last week and Chargers this week), but you have to stop discounting the Bears as a bad team that only wins because of the benefit of fortunate bounces.According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hilton posted the Bears as 3.5-point favorites and this line has barely moved, only briefly touching -4. The Chargers have had 10 days to rest and prepare for this matchup against the Bears, but Prediction Machine's Bessire says that bettors shouldn't be depending on the extra three days to benefit San Diego. "It's hard to say the time off affects them. While the talent level is still the same this year, there are a lot of holes," Bessire says of the Chargers. "High interceptions can be one thing, but completion percentage lows and highs in sacks taken is more than just the ball bouncing the wrong way. This team just really isn't that good." While Chicago isn't an elite team, Bessire says Chicago "is a little more consistent with the new style of offense."Pregame.com's Leonard says that Chicago is his top play of the week. "We know what we'll get out of San Diego," he says. "But since Chicago fixed their offensive line problems, they've been great. Chicago has a terrific defense and it has a decent offense. Cutler has played better. San Diego is disappointing every week." Leonard says that if you put held your hand over the Chargers' logo and put San Diego's statistics on another team, like Washington or Cleveland, this line would be higher. "More like 5 points," Leonard says. "It's the name on the jerseys that brings the line down to 3.5 points."The Pick: Bears -3.5. Be careful with this pick. As I said, I have the dilemma of picking every single Chargers game incorrectly. I think this is the right pick, however, considering how bad the Chargers play, especially on the road. Against this Bears team, Rivers' interception total should rise (and so should Chicago's win total).

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (+1)

Carson Palmer or Christian Ponder? Michael Bush or Adrian Peterson? As it turns out, choosing the right side of this game doesn't involve picking the correct the quarterback or the running back of these teams.

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Instead, look at the defenses. Oakland ranks 26th using Football Outsiders' proprietary DVOA measure, which compares the defense-adjusted value over average. The Raiders defense stinks against the pass with a ranking of 20th, but they're even worse against the rush, ranked 27th out of 32 teams. Ask yourself, do you feel comfortable picking the team with the 27th ranked rushing defense against one of the league's most elite running backs in Adrian Peterson?Minnesota isn't that great on defense either, to be sure. They're horrid against the pass (ranked 27th against the pass using DVOA). However, the Vikings are ranked 12th overall against the rush. In other words, the Vikings should be able to stop Michael Bush, who will once again start in place of the injured Darren McFadden. So I'll ask again, do you feel comfortable picking the team that will depend on Carson Palmer to throw the ball well?According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hilton posted the Vikings originally as 1.5-point favorites on Nov. 13, but two days later the line swung in favor of the Raiders by 1.5 points. That has come down slightly to Raiders -1. Don't be fooled, though. Picking this game is picking who you think wins this game. For Prediction Machine's Bessire, it's about the defensive units. "When healthy, these are the two best rushing offenses in the league. But there's a caveat: McFadden won't play," he says. "You have to remember Oakland is one of the worst teams in the NFL against the rush. Adrian Peterson should have a huge day against Oakland. Minnesota is much better against the run than against the pass. Palmer had an efficient game last week, but it's hard to count on him every week to be consistent. He's ultimately an average quarterback." Pregame.com's Leonard isn't particularly interested in picking this game, although he'd look at Minnesota with a gun to his head. "The only problem is that they're coming off a Monday night game against a team they don't see often," he says. "It comes down to who will make fewer mistakes in the quarterback spot. I don't know that I could trust either team in that case. Defensively, they're pretty comparable. We're catching a line that says Oakland is 4 points better on a neutral field, and I don't think they're that much better." The Pick: Vikings +1. It's typically the wrong bet to pick the team coming off a Monday night game, since it means one fewer day to prepare. However, the Vikings were down 14 points to the Packers so quickly on Monday that Adrian Peterson carried the ball only 14 times. In my mind, he's rested enough despite the short week. Expect the Vikings to win this one at home thanks to their run defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (PK)

I usually like to pick the most entertaining games of the week for this column. This game is not one of them.

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According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hilton has kept this game as a pick 'em (PK) for nearly the entire week, only briefly favoring the Browns by 1 point. Vegas doesn't think much of either team. With a total of only 34 points, which you would typically see in a game involving a blizzard, oddsmakers aren't expecting much scoring. I cannot come up with any scenario to explain how the Browns can win this game. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA ranking, the Cleveland defense is actually pretty good with a rank of 14th overall. But the wide split between pass (9th ranked) and rush (28th ranked) is startling. It also is not a good match up for the Browns who play a rookie quarterback like Blaine Gabbert who will be depending on running back Maurice Jones-Drew to run the ball more.Oh, and by the way, the Jaguars have the third best defense in the entire NFL, according to DVOA rankings. As unbelievable as that sounds, it's true, and it's bad news for a Cleveland Browns offense that struggles to get first downs, let alone points. On offense, though, the Jaguars are dead last at 32, mostly due to how bad they are passing the ball. If MJD can run the ball, Jacksonville might be able to steal a game on the road."Defensively, that team is so good," Prediction Machine's Bessire says of the Jaguars. "But here, you're counting on them to win the game. My biggest concern isn't whether Jacksonville is the better team, but it's the weather conditions. It should be 40 degrees and rainy. It's hard to trust one team over another."Pregame.com's Leonard says that Jacksonville took money early but now that's coming in on Cleveland. "The weather is the only drawback because we don't know how Jacksonville will do in terrible weather that they're not used to in Florida," he says. "But Jacksonville has a better defense and clearly the better running game. There's no way I'd want to back Cleveland here. The clear best unit on the field is Jacksonville's defense."The Pick: Jaguars PK. MJD has a huge day running the ball against a bad defense in bad weather, and I'm not just saying that as wishful thinking because MJD is one of the starting running backs on my fantasy team this week. The Jaguars will have so few chances like this one this season to win games. Expect them to find some way to pull out a victory against a very bad Browns team.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (-2)

Stop me if you're read this before: Two NFL teams with losing records, bad offenses and improving defenses are squaring off this week in a game few people will care to watch. If this game preview reads a lot like the Jacksonville/Cleveland game you just saw on the previous page, you're not mistaken.

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Looking at DVOA, the Rams have the second worst offense in the league, mostly due to their weak passing game. That has improved with the pickup of wide receiver Brandon Lloyd from the Denver Broncos, but it's still ranked 31st out of 32 teams. Seattle, meanwhile, is ranked 25th in overall offense and is equally bad passing and running the ball. On defense, though, the Rams rank 28th by DVOA mostly because they have trouble stopping running backs. The unit is good against the pass, ranking 16th. Seattle, though, is even more impressive, ranked 15th overall in the NFL. The Seahawks do well defending the pass, but they've even better stopping opposing teams' running back. Believe it or not, the Seahawks have a top 10 defense against the run.According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hilton posted the Rams as 3-point favorites, and that line has slowly drifted to -2. At one point, oddsmakers had the Rams as only 1.5-point favorites. But without weather as a factor in the St. Louis dome stadium, bettors have to focus on which team is good enough to win this game outright. Prediction Machine's Bessire says that not only are both of these defenses are improving, these two teams are pretty similar. "However, St. Louis doesn't have much of a home advantage," he says. "I thought St. Louis would win the game by 3 points, but our model has Seattle staying with St. Louis. Seattle just has to contain Steven Jackson."Pregame.com's Leonard agrees that even though both teams are better at defending as of late, the Seattle defense is the best unit on the field. But "the St. Louis team is moving the ball better," he says. "I don't have a play on this game, but I would lean to St. Louis. Seattle is terrible on the road and is a dangerous home dog. I think St. Louis is flying under the radar."The Pick: Seahawks +2. Sure, they're better at home than they are on the road, but the Seahawks did travel earlier this season and they beat the Giants a few weeks ago. Is Sam Bradford better than Eli Manning? Is Steven Jackson better than Ahmad Bradshaw? Seattle wins this division game, even if few NFL fans around the country care very much about the outcome.

Although I've given my five picks against the spread for Week 11, I thought I'd also add in my selections for the other games this week. I won't include these in my overall record, but instead I'm just merely adding them as a bonus. Again, please leave your comments below with your picks this week and why. Have a great weekend.

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(Home teams in all caps)

Buffalo Bills +2 over MIAMI DOLPHINS
BALTIMORE RAVENS -7 over Cincinnati Bengals
Dallas Cowboys -7 over WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +14 over GREEN BAY PACKERS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -9.5 over Arizona Cardinals
ATLANTA FALCONS -6 over Tennessee Titans
CAROLINA PANTERS +7 over Detroit Lions
NEW YORK GIANTS -4 over Philadelphia Eagles
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -15 over Kansas City Chiefs

In looking for opportunities in this slate of games, Prediction Machine's Bessire says his model likes Buffalo to win outright against Miami. "Both teams have a last-two-week bias," he says. "Buffalo still seems better to me. Same with Arizona. That line should be in the double digits." Pregame.com's Leonard, on the other hand, says that even though Miami wasn't winning earlier this year, "they were in a lot of the games earlier this season. Buffalo is starting to fade." Meanwhile, Leonard says that while Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman "has regressed this year and has thrown a lot of interceptions. If Tampa can stay close defensively, you might have this right. Green Bay does not get behind in games." .>To follow Robert Holmes on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/RobTheStreet.>To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com.

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Don’t Let the Recent Surge Give You Amnesia

It’s a new year — forget the old! After the nerve-wracking year we’ve just had, investors seem entitled to a little therapeutic amnesia. In that light, yesterday’s brisk rally in global stock markets (including a 180-point surge for the Dow) makes perfect sense.

As usual, there was some cheery news to justify the buying. Two purchasing managers’ surveys overseas, released Monday, showed a return to growth in China’s manufacturing sector and a smaller contraction in Germany’s.

Then, Tuesday morning, the Institute for Supply Management issued its monthly report on U.S. manufacturing. According to the purchasing execs polled, the nation’s factories revved up a bit in December, with the ISM index climbing to 53.9 — a six-month high.

A reading over 50 indicates expansion, so the ISM report is clearly a favorable near-term omen for the U.S. economy.

On the other hand, as the chart here illustrates, the ISM remains well below the 60-plus levels it achieved in 2010 and 2011. Thus, it’s still likely that the next few months will bring, at best, moderate growth — no recession, but no boom either.

Stocks can rise somewhat further in this climate, probably to the 1300 area on the S&P, or slightly higher. However, I advise you to exercise the utmost discipline with new purchases. Don’t chase stocks that have jumped sharply in recent days.

Take Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), for example. Since last Wednesday’s intraday low, the shares have gained 8%. While ABX is still below my official buy limit of $48, I think investors can catch the stock at $47 or a tad lower sometime in the next week or so. My strategy is to be patient and then pounce. Also, I’m no longer considering a possible sale of ABX in the mid-$50s. It looks as if gold has formed an important low in the past few weeks. If so, prices for gold-related assets, such as mining shares, may be headed substantially higher in 2012. So, I don’t want to sell ABX too soon.

If you’re looking to put idle cash to work right now, I suggest bonds, particularly emerging-markets debt. iShares J.P. Morgan U.S. Dollar Emerging Markets Bond Fund ETF (NYSE:EMB) invests exclusively in government debt, which tends to be safer than corporate IOUs.

Moreover, EMB follows an “intelligent” asset-allocation strategy that automatically skews the fund’s portfolio toward better-quality issuers. Current yield:�4.9%.

On the sell side, it’s time for me to get rid of Gabelli Multimedia Trust (NYSE:GGT), a closed-end fund that lagged the market badly in 2011 after mounting a respectable recovery in 2009 and 2010. Media stocks are highly sensitive to the economy, so we don’t want to hang on to GGT after the market’s current burst of strength fades.

VIX - Options Volatility Sonar: Monday Recap

VIX - Market Sentiment

Monday, the markets were responding initially very positive to the Greek deal out of Europe. This response was somewhat muted after Japan's GDP came in lower than forecast at -0.6% versus an estimate of -0.3%. Tomorrow some big numbers are due out with German Economic Sentiment and core retail/retail sales coming out before the bell tomorrow. The interesting action today was simply the VIX and S&P index. The S&P traded to 1350 in an instant after the open but the VIX continued to stay somewhat elevated above the 19 level.

Volatility ETFs (VXX) and 2x ETF (TVIX) at the open were slapped back as futures faded as one would expect. The only thing holding up the VIX futures at this point is SPY and SPX puts continue to be bought more than 50% of the time and are trading almost 2:1 outnumbering calls. This is reflected as February VIX settlement is Wednesday opening print.

Yesterday

February VIX futures 21.80

March VIX futures 23.60

April VIX futures 24.30

Today

February VIX futures 19.58 (Down 10%)

March VIX futures 22.10

April VIX futures 23.45

SPY saw 3:1 puts outnumbering calls but today the bought on ask was much lower than the last six trading sessions. Today the puts were bought 40% of the time but the majority of this is because the largest trade of the day thus far was a large 128-118-108 March quarterly put fly. This 10.00 put fly went off 25K-50K-25K for .70 which equates to a 1.75 million dollar hedge. If the SPY was at 118 on March expiration it would equate to a 23.25 million dollar gain for the long SPY fly. This was followed up by the Nasdaq ETF (QQQ) puts were bought more than 52% of the time on the ask which follows the negative market sentiment over the last seven trading days.

Options Paper

Citigroup (C) today saw a massive seller of the September 40 puts today for 8.05. Today 45,000 of the September 40 puts were sold in a single block for a total net credit of 36.25 million believing C could continue to run to the 40 level between now and September expiration. This single trade was almost half the total number of puts trading today. As one would expect the puts outnumbered calls today but with 80% sold on the bid this appears to be bullish for this widely held mega bank.

Seattle Genetics (SGEN) saw a bear come in today buying 2,000 of the February 20 puts just before earnings. Implied volatility has increased going into earnings so this buyer is paying up for these as what appears to be an outright bearish bet on this name between now and Friday. This most likely will either be a home run or a lose everything trade for this trader.

Salesforce.com (CRM) saw a trader sell 7K of the March 125 calls today for 12.70. Interesting part regarding this trade is this effect a call roll as these calls netted the trader more than 4 million on the trade doubling in two days from 4 to 8 million. He then took ~6.6 million of this trade and rolled it to a March 135 - 150 call spread for 6.00 another 11K times which leverages this even higher. This would turn the 6 million into more than 16.5 million in just 33 trading days. On a CRM pullback I will consider getting into some version of this trade myself.

Popular ETFs and equity names with bullish/bearish paper in terms of call/put ratios:

Calls outnumbering p;uts:

Shaw Group (SHAW) 95:1

Jabil Circuit (JBL) 45:1

Dollar Thrifty (DTG) 41:1

TiVo Inc. (TIVO) 31:1

General Mills (GIS) 28:1

Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) 25:1

Talisman Energy (TLM) 25:1

Power-One (PWER) 44:1

Puts outnumbering calls:

Pitney Bowes (PBI) 6:1

Kinross Gold (KGC) 6:1 (May 10 puts appear sold 8K against open interest)

Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) 6:1 (Follows up huge 53:1 on Friday)

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) 5:1

E*Trade (ETFC) 5:1

Gap Inc (GPS) 5:1

VeriSign (VRSN) 27:1

Volatility Explosion

Chelsea Therapeutics (CHTP) has seen quite a bit of option activity lately and today the stock dropped 32% on heavy volume and the options again were active. The implied volatility screamed up more than 18% to 235% in today's trading session. Options activity was actually overall bullish as the puts today were actually sold more than 65% of the time and thus appears some people are positioning for a rebound.

Zynga (ZNGA) today on more than 5x call volume saw some large call trades today. The March 11 calls went off today with the 11's going off for 2.90 and the 13's going off for 1.86. Interesting part on this was the bid/ask on the 11 calls was 2.85x3.00 at the time and the 13's had a 1.80x1.90 spread. The 11 calls appear to be sold but overall net premium would show a bullish overall tone. Very mixed trading so no directional tell here but interesting nonetheless as implied volatility continued to increase throughout the day. Calls outnumbered puts 5:1 on the trading day.

Volatility Implosion

Diamond Foods (DMND) as reported on the sonar last week saw a 250.00 bet turn into 50K overnight. DMND again traded down hard today but implied volatility continued to leak out of this name. The largest option flows today were put buyers in the name as implied by net premium and deltas. The bought on ask percentage was 35% but when you back out the large 1750 February 25 put seller this number jumps hard to the 45% level. The March 25, 20, and 17.50 puts were active today. Calls were also bought today but almost all were done with spreads. Puts again outnumbered calls on more than 4.5x average daily volume.

As always happy trading and stay hedged.

Remember equity insurance always looks expensive until you need it

Disclosure:

I am long SDS, APC, TBT, NUAN, JBL

I am short: SIAL, PBI, FXE, DB, EEM, LYV

Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. I do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment professional as to the suitability of such investments for his or her specific situation.

Top Stocks For 2012-2-9-8

The Western Union Company (NYSE:WU) a leader in global payments, and The Pantry, Inc., the leading independently-operated convenience store chain in the southeastern U.S., announced an agreement to offer the Western Union goCASH service, an in-lane money-transfer service from Western Union.

The Western Union Company is a leader in global payment services. Together with its Vigo, Orlandi Valuta, Pago Facil and Western Union Business Solutions branded payment services, Western Union provides consumers and businesses with fast, reliable and convenient ways to send and receive money around the world, to send payments and to purchase money orders.

Biomass is one of the most abundant and well-utilized sources of renewable energy in the world. Broadly speaking, it is organic material produced by the photosynthesis of light. The chemical materials (organic compounds of carbons) are stored and can then be used to generate energy. The most common biomass used for energy is wood from trees. Wood has been used by humans for producing energy for heating and cooking for a very long time.

Cleantech Transit Inc. (�Cleantech�) (OTC.BB:CLNO) was founded to capitalize on technology advances and manufacturing opportunities in the growing clean energy public transportation sector. Cleantech Transit Inc has expanded its focus to invest directly in specific green projects that could maximize shareholder value. Recognizing the many economic and operational advances of converting wood waste into renewable sources of energy, Cleantech Transit Inc. has selected to invest in Phoenix Energy (www.phoenixenergy.net). This project could benefit the Company�s manufacturing clients worldwide.

With parallel operation, your business seamlessly integrates with the grid. Producing more power than you need? Spin your meter backwards and have the power company pay you! Need more power than you are generating, supplement by taking part of the power from your Phoenix Energy power plant, and part from the local utility.

Cleantech Transit, Inc. is pleased to announce it has met its funding requirement to secure the Company�s ability to earn in 25% of the 500KW Merced Project.

The Company is in the final stages of closing its initial interest in the Merced Project and is currently working on completing the necessary documentation and expects closing the transaction soon. As previously announced Cleantech has the option to earn up to 40% of the Merced Project and the Company plans to continue to work towards increasing its interest in the Merced Project as they move ahead.

To discover more about CLNO, Please visit: http://www.cleantechtransitinc.com/

UDR, Inc. (NYSE:UDR) a leading multifamily real estate investment trust, announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Dwell95, a 507-home apartment community in New York City�s Financial District, for $325.0 million. It is anticipated that the purchase price will be funded through the issuance of approximately $50 million of operating partnership units (with a floor price of $25 per unit) and $275 million in cash, partially funded through the proceeds from the disposition of communities that no longer fit the long term growth profile of the Company.

UDR, Inc. an S&P 400 company, is a leading multifamily real estate investment trust with a demonstrated performance history of delivering superior and dependable returns by successfully managing, buying, selling, developing and redeveloping attractive real estate properties in targeted U.S. markets.

EnergySolutions, Inc. (NYSE:ES) a leading provider of specialized, technology-based nuclear services to government and commercial customers, announced financial results for the Company’s second quarter ended June 30, 2011. Revenue for the second quarter of 2011 totaled $403.7 million, compared with $398.3 million in the second quarter of 2010. Gross profit for the second quarter of 2011 was $32.7 million, compared with $44.9 million for the second quarter of 2010. Selling, general, & administrative expenses decreased to $27.9 million, from $31.2 million in the second quarter of 2010 as a result of ongoing cost reduction efforts.

EnergySolutions offers customers a full range of integrated services and solutions, including nuclear operations, characterization, decommissioning, decontamination, site closure, transportation, nuclear materials management, the safe, secure disposition of nuclear waste, and research and engineering services across the fuel cycle.

InterXion Holding: The European Cloud

One of the most important trends in technology in the past few years has been moving data and software to the Cloud. This move saves money on in-house storage and gives better connections to all kinds of networks.

Computer users in the U.S. turn to companies like Amazon and Rackspace. In Europe, however, more and more customers are turning to Netherlands-based InterXion Holding (INXN).

InterXion�s data hubs offer excellent connectivity choices, with 32 data centers in 13 cities across 11 countries, giving close proximity to over 75% of Europe�s GDP.
These hubs feature connectivity with over 400 voice and data carriers that have a direct presence, and the company�s carrier neutrality allows customers unhindered choices among them.

InterXion has over 1,200 customers, including the London data and trading activities of the Nasdaq exchange. The company�s history shows strong customer relationships, with average monthly churn of less than 0.6%. The company�s data centers have stable utilization rates of over 70%.

Revenue growth has been strong, remaining in double digits even during the 2009�2010 slowdown. Revenue grew by 22% in 2011 and earnings grew from 30 cents per share to 52% per share. After-tax profit margins have topped 11% for the last five quarters.

InterXion 's Q3 earnings report on November 8 was in line with expectations on both revenue and earnings, and guidance for 2013 that indicates further expansion and momentum.

In the longer run, INXN has been climbing since early August 2011, running from 11 then to around 24 in recent trading, with four substantial corrections along the way.

We like the story of expansion during a difficult period for European growth. The upside potential when the 'Mediterranean Muddle' is finally resolved and the Continent resumes its growth is significant. We think that taking a partial position in INXN below $24 makes sense.

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Two ways to bank on Canada

I've long been a fan of Canadian banks for their solid balance sheets and conservative operations. We era adding to our positions in Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) and The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD).

Both are making higher highs and higher lows on their long-term charts. Profitability is increasing modestly along with Canada's GDP, and their dividends, already better than American banks, have the fuel to grow. I expect these trends to continue.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is based in Toronto and provides various financial products and services to individuals, as well as small business, commercial, corporate, and institutional clients in Canada and internationally.

It�s one of the top four banks in Canada and, like the others, has very little in common with big U.S. money center banks, having avoided the great majority of their pitfalls.

The shares have more than tripled in the last ten years and recently hit a new all-time high. The quarterly dividend yields 4.6% and varies less than most foreign stocks.
Yield growth has averaged 6.7% per year for the last five years. The shares trade for less than 11-times trailing earnings.

Last month the company reported Q4 that quarterly EPS were up 12.8% at $2.02. Excluding "items" the rise was 14.6%. Full-year earnings were up 6.6% to $8.07 after reasonable adjustments. Operating cash flow was four times higher than income, which is always a big plus.

Given the challenging economic and interest rate environment, these are excellent results, and the stronger Q4 numbers suggest things might improve further in 2013, although the environment will remain challenging.

The Toronto-Dominion Bank provides financial and banking products and services to personal and small business customers in North America and internationally. It is well capitalized and well operated.

The stock has more than quadrupled in the last 10 years and shows no sign of slowing. It recently hit a new all-time high. Earnings are consistent and the stock pays a nice dividend, yielding 3.5% at its current price and payout.

Q4 GAAP EPS were $1.66 versus $1.68 last year, while adjusted earnings of $1.83 were 5% higher than the comparable quarter. Full year EPS were $6.86 according to GAAP, up 5%, and adjusted earnings were $7.42, up 8%. The shares trade for about 12-times trailing earnings.

Tier 1 Capital according to Basel lll was a very healthy 8.2%. Return on equity was 16.3%, comfortably above the 15% threshold that Warren Buffett considers the measure of an excellent company.

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This 9%-Yielder Has Paid 146 Consecutive Dividends

They're the creme de la creme of the income universe.

Each one has increased its dividend every year for at least two decades... some sport track records with more than 50 years of consecutive dividend increases.

All told, these stocks are some of the most reliable dividend payers on the planet.

I'm talking about the S&P 500 "Dividend Aristocrats" and their kissing cousins, the S&P "High-Yield Dividend Aristocrats."

To become a member of these elite groups, a company must pay a regular dividend, but it must also enjoy a stellar track record of growing that dividend every year for at least 20 years.

With such stringent membership criteria, only about 70 U.S. companies make the grade.

As you'd expect, a wide variety of industries are represented. You'll find an overweighting of consumer staples such as Procter and Gamble (NYSE: PG) and Kimberley Clark (NYSE: KMB), and a healthy chunk of electrical utilities, such as Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED) and Northwest Natural Gas (NYSE: NWN).

But there's one group that makes the list that you would probably never expect: insurance.

All together, six of some 70 aristocrats sell insurance. Even more interesting, five of these six companies are property and casualty insurers. The exception is Aflac, which is mainly a life insurer.

What is it about property and casualty insurers that allow them to keep increasing their dividends in good times and bad for at least a quarter of a century?

The answer surprised me. Here's what I found out...

Today, insurance is usually life or non-life, also known as property and casualty.

Property insurance covers loss or damage to physical property, such as houses and cars. Casualty insurance covers the legal cost if the insured person were to cause someone else physical injury or damage another's property. Liability insurance is a common example.

You might expect property and casualty insurers such as Dividend Aristocrat -- RLI (NYSE: RLI) -- to be cash-flow machines... churning out streams of highly predictable earnings quarter after quarter.

Nothing is further from the truth.

Their earnings streams are notoriously volatile. Major unpredictable risks, such as natural disasters, have a huge effect on earnings.

So why do I like property and casualty companies then? As in all industries, some companies far outperform others. RLI is one of them -- as measured by the combined ratio, the key industry metric of underwriting profit.

The combined ratio combines two metrics. It measures underwriting expenses as well as the amount paid out in claims, both as a percentage of net premiums earned.

A combined ratio of 100 means the company is breaking even on its underwriting activities; the lower the ratio, the higher the company's underwriting profit.

In 2011, RLI's combine ratio was an outstanding 78.4... Well below the industry average of 107. During the third quarter 2012, RLI's combined ratio was 87.7 -- ticking up because of damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.

RLI has seen sixteen straight years of underwriting profitability, with an average combined ratio of 87 during the period.

And while property and casualty companies may break even or lose money on their underwriting activities... that is only part of their financial story.

These companies accumulate millions and even billions of dollars of investment capital, which provides investment income that makes a vital contribution to their per-share earnings.

For example, RLI earns investment income and realizes gains from a $1.9 billion portfolio, comprised 74% of high-quality debt with an average "AA" credit rating, and 26% in equity.

Given the investment portfolio comprises the lion's share of earnings, management's decision on whether realize capital gains or losses by selling investments can cause tremendous earnings volatility from year to year.

How can volatile earnings grow dividends?

First, insurance companies keep their payout ratio relatively low, so it can inch up the dividend regardless of earnings. RLI had a payout ratio of 25.0% of in 2009, 19.2% in 2010 and 19.5% in 2011.

Meanwhile, insurance companies keep building shareholders' equity, which they can dip into on a temporary basis to supplement the dividend if there were a short-term earnings shortfall.

That's one reason RLI has been able to pay a dividend for 146 consecutive quarters and raise its ordinary dividends for 38 consecutive years.

For the past three years, the insurer has also returned excess earnings to shareowners in the form of one-time special dividends. In 2010, the special December payout was $7 a share and in 2011 and 2012, it was $5 a share.

During the last four quarters, the company paid out $1.26 in ordinary dividends. Factoring in last year's special dividend, shares of RLI provide a remarkable yield of 9.2% at today's price -- an outstanding yield for a member of the "Dividend Aristocrats."

That also makes it the highest-yielding "Dividend Aristocrat."

Risks to Consider: If management decides to break with its three-year policy of paying out a special dividend from excess capital, the stock would no longer be suitable as a high-yield income play.

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DrStockPick.com Stock Report!

Monday August 24, 2009

Rimage Corporation (Nasdaq: RIMG) today announced the appointment of Samir Mittal as senior vice president and chief technology officer, effective September 14. Mittal, who holds a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering, will be responsible for evaluating potential new technologies and products, in addition to managing Rimage’s product development organization.

FICO (NYSE:FICO), the leading provider of analytics and decision management technology, today announced the general availability of FICO(TM) Insurance Fraud Manager 3 - Healthcare Edition, with enhanced functionality for targeting healthcare insurance fraud. FICO Insurance Fraud Manager (IFM) 3 uses real-time predictive analytics to find patterns of fraud and abuse before payments are made, significantly reducing the costs of fraud by enabling healthcare insurance companies to better avoid the payment of fraudulent claims.

Prudential Annuities, the domestic annuity business of Prudential Financial, Inc. (NYSE:PRU), today adjusted its popular annuity optional benefits, which allow investors to ‘lock in’ the highest daily value of their annuity contract, for income purposes, each day the market is open.

Ecology Coatings, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: ECOC), a leader in the discovery and development of nanotechnology-enabled, ultraviolet-curable advanced coatings, today announced that it has signed a collaboration agreement with a major tobacco company for the application of its technology for producing “fire standard compliant” (FSC) cigarettes. FSC cigarettes are designed to meet government reduced ignition propensity testing standards. Ecology has filed a patent application with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office for its technology.

National Instruments (Nasdaq: NATI) today announced NI-XNET CAN and FlexRay embedded network interfaces, which help engineers working in industries such as automotive and aerospace quickly prototype, simulate and test next-generation FlexRay and controller area network (CAN) devices and networks. The NI-XNET embedded networks platform consists of 14 new high-performance PCI- and PXI-based interfaces for FlexRay and CAN and a new, universal API for rapid application development. The platform is designed for demanding applications, such as hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) and end-of-line test, which require hundreds of signals and submillisecond latency.

Braskem S.A. (NYSE: BAK) ,pursuant to CVM Instruction 358/2002 and in light of news published by the press referring to its participation in an asset acquisition process, publicly informs its shareholders and the market that the Company is constantly in touch with different companies in the pursuit of growth and partnership opportunities, as part of its internationalization strategy and its goal of becoming a global leader in the petrochemical industry. All potential movements considered by Braskem are aimed at strengthening its competitiveness and preserving the financial health of its capital structure.