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The Daily Reckoning, Addison Wiggin & Chris Mayer: IRSA Page 3
Forbes International Investment Report,
John H. Christy III, CFA: Ericsson Page 4
Green Chip Stocks, Jeff Siegel: Comverge Inc. Page 5
Growth Report, Ian Wyatt: Internet Gold-Golden Lines Page 6
Motley Fool Stock Advisor,
David & Tom Gardner: Marvel Enterprises Page 7
The Oberweis Report, Jim Oberweis: NetSol Technologies Inc. Page 8
RightSide Advisors, Richard Suttmeier: Gardner Denver, Inc. Page 9
Rising Star Stocks, Ian Wyatt: Fushi International Page 10
Schaeffer's Power Stocks, Bernie Schaeffer: Fossil Page 11
Top Stock Insights, Ian Wyatt: Quintana Maritime Limited Page 12
The Tycoon Report, Christopher Rowe: Page 13
Utility Forecaster, Roger Conrad: Vodafone Page 14
About Our Sponsor Page 15
Special Offers from Contributing Advisors Page 16
Fall 2007 / Winter 2008
Released November 1, 2007
2007, Business Financial Publishing, LLC - All Rights Reserved.
Table of Contents
3
I've been involved in investing and financial markets for the past 15 years. In that time, I've met every kind of investor... and heard about every kind of investing strategy and stock opportunity you can imagine.
Here at Agora Financial, we scour the globe looking for hidden investment opportunities often overlooked by Wall Street. Capital & Crisis editor Chris Mayer uncovers these opportunities and delivers them to you.
Chris is called by some "the best financial journalist you've never heard of "...And on behalf of Chris Mayer... I'll gladly put every minute of my hard work and reputation building on the line. His Capital & Crisis subscribers have benefited greatly from his unique recommendations. His globe-trotting letter knows no bounds and goes wherever profits can be found. Over to Chris…I'm going to show you how to own a property ― and how your investment could more than double over the next couple of years. I just spent two weeks in Argentina, and I've come away more convinced than ever that owning this land is like owning a green patch of earth in Manhattan in the first years of America's post- Depression boom. Just an incredibly hard-to-find (and hence immeasurably valuable) piece of real estate.
In Puerto Madero, there is no more land left. The whole area has undergone a massive revival. Old warehouses are now full of chic restaurants, art galleries and shops. Across the water stand several tall and glimmering office buildings. And since Argentina's crisis ended in 2002, Puerto Madero prices have more than doubled.
Not far from Puerto Madero, there is a 173-acre property called Santa María del Plata. It's only five minutes from downtown Buenos Aires. It doesn't take a lot of imagination to see the possibilities of that plot of land. This is why I'm recommending IRSA (NYSE: IRS). And since I've toured the property, I'm very confident about this recommendation. IRSA's land in Santa María del Plata could support 7.5 million square feet of developed space. In nearby Puerto Madero, I have price data right now that support a valuation between $167-233 per square foot for residential complexes alone. If you use the low end of that range to put a value on Santa María, you get a number nearly twice the market cap of the company now. The market is basically looking at IRSA's cash-flowing properties and seems to ignore the vast potential of Santa María del Plata. Buying shares of IRSA is like getting the land thrown in for free. The Santa María del Plata property represents incredible hidden value in IRSA's shares. (IRSA carries the property on its books for only $36.7 million.) It's the future of the company. As the company develops the space, this value will become apparent and the shares should rise significantly.
I like IRSA's portfolio of properties. I'm also excited about the prospects of its development efforts. In particular, I believe there is plenty of value in Santa María del Plata. I've collected loads of detail on IRSA ― individual properties, development projects, etc. ― but I don't have enough space to go into it all. There are always risks, but the potential rewards here more than compensate for them. IRSA could more than double over the next few years. Recommendation: Buy IRSA (IRS:nyse) up to $21 per share.
Sign up for The Daily Reckoning FREE E-letter Today! You'll get a daily email alert, late-breaking market analysis, special reports and a broad range of investment ideas from leading thinkers, writers and market analysts from around the world. See why Bill Bonner, Addison Wiggin and other well-regarded Daily Reckoning editors have been engaging readers daily since 1999.
IRS
NYSE:
by Addison Wiggin & Chris Mayer
IRSA
It's like Owning the Last Strip of Raw Land in Manhattan
T H E D A I L Y R E C KO N I N G
Addison Wiggin
4
When it comes to stockpicking, some of the biggest gains can be made by betting against the crowd. By definition, it's never the most fashionable thing to do. And sometimes being a contrarian can be downright uncomfortable. But every now and then the opportunities are just too big to ignore. I believe this sort of opportunity is unfolding with Ericsson (Nasdaq: ERIC), the Swedish maker of telecom infrastructure equipment. Ericsson shocked the market in mid-October when it announced an unforeseen shortfall in thirdquarter earnings. Its shares immediately went into a free fall, losing more than a quarter of their value in one trading session. It was a painful day.
There's no question that Ericsson had a bad quarter. But a 25% one-day plunge�equivalent to about $12 billion of the company's market cap�strikes me as a wild overreaction. It takes something much more dramatic than an earnings miss to swing the intrinsic value of a company that much overnight. Short-term, yes, Ericsson has some problems to work out. Long-term, the fundamental story is still very much intact. Let's take a closer look.
First, the bad news. A big part of the reason for Ericsson's shortfall was a delay in network upgrades by phone companies in North America. Unless you believe that Americans are going to suddenly stop using their cell phones for things like sending pictures and listening to music, this is almost certainly a short-term problem.
Don't forget about the turmoil that seized the credit markets during the third-quarter of 2007. Is it really surprising that some telecom companies might have put some spending plans on hold in such an environment? These equipment purchases might have been delayed, but they need to be made at some point, and Ericsson is the industry's leading supplier. As bad as things may look for Ericsson, it is still miles ahead of its ailing competitor Alcatel-Lucent, which had several major profit warnings in 2007 and has struggled to reap the benefits of its transatlantic merger.
Another knock on Ericsson is that their margins will be under pressure because they sell a lot of gear in places like China and India, and the pricing on those contracts is lower than in developed markets. But Ericsson is building a dominant position in these rapidly growing countries. It would be foolish for them to pass up on heavy investments in China and India simply because it might be a drag on margins for a few quarters. Ericsson is doing the right thing to prepare for the future. Wall Street�big surprise�is being short-sighted.
But the numbers tell the most compelling story of all. Ericsson is now trading at about 13 times earnings and pays a 2% dividend yield. It is debt free and consistently generates a healthy 20%-plus returnon- equity. Its financial strength will help it ride out the short-term bumps. In some ways, Ericsson reminds me of another Scandinavian telecom company that has been one of the biggest winners in the Forbes International Investment Report model portfolios: Finland's Nokia (nyse: NOK). Nokia's stock has gained 83% since I named it as one of my top picks in January 2007. Nokia has faced plenty of skepticism over the years.
Analysts argued that cell phones were becoming a saturated market. The skeptics also said Nokia would face competition from cheap upstarts in countries like China. The argument was that most folks who can afford phones already have them, and those who don't will probably end up buying cheaper ones than Nokia's models. So far Nokia has proven the skeptics wrong and remains the leading global brand in mobile phone handsets despite plenty of stiff competition.
To be sure Ericsson and Nokia are no longer the red-hot growth names that they once were back in the 1990s TMT bubble. But when it comes to global demand for cell phones packed with rich features and the sophisticated infrastructure that's required to support them, we're still in the early innings. Mobile phone data traffic is exploding and today's networks will need to be upgraded to accommodate all of it. Given its bargain valuation I believe now is an excellent time to accumulate shares of Ericsson.
International investing is no longer an option, it's a necessity. In the past year China gained over 140%, Brazil, 60%. The S&P 500? 13%. The best way to participate in explosive growth stories overseas is by subscribing to Forbes International Investment Report. To start your 30-day RISK-FREE trial subscription and get access to the full list of recommendations found in five model portfolios - Global Core, Borderless, Asia-Pacific, European and Emerging Markets - click here. You will also receive a FREE bonus report, "6 Must-Own Emerging Market Stocks."
ERIC
Nasdaq:
Ericsson
by John Christy
Betting on Ericsson's Comeback
John Christy
F O R B E S I N T E R NAT I O NA L I N V E S T M E N T R E P O R
5
In the past few years we've seen the rapid development of alternative energy sources and legislation aimed at incorporating them into energy portfolios. But, until recently, energy efficiency hasn't shared the same enthusiasm―though its role is just as critical.
In fact, it's been said that you cannot get a unit of energy cleaner or cheaper than to find an effective way not to use it. And that's where Comverge comes in. (Nasdaq: COMV) Comverge Inc. provides energy solutions that enable utilities to increase available electric capacity during periods of peak demand while enhancing grid reliability. The company's demand management solutions produce no harmful emissions and are as much as 40% less expensive than building and operating a new natural gas-fired power plant, without requiring any additional investment in transmission and distribution assets.
The company offers a spectrum of demand response, advanced metering, and grid management solutions―all designed to assist utilities and consumers in utilizing energy "smarter" and more efficiently, essentially by taking energy from where it is not needed and transferring it to where it is.
For example, the company's Smart Thermostat can calculate exactly how much power your home or office systems need to operate efficiently. This calculation ensures that not one single drop of energy is wasted . . . thereby allowing the consumer to save on energy costs and the excess power to be sent back to the grid―alleviating peak usage problems. Comverge also makes a similar product, a Digital Control Unit, that can be used for auxiliary appliances ranging from pool pumps to hot water heaters.
As well, the company manufactures Smart Meters, which can communicate wirelessly with the local utility, making monthly meter readings a distant memory. These devices allow the utility to fix some problems remotely, reduce communications costs, download software upgrades and constantly monitor and report problems like power outages.
There's also the Digital Capacitor Controller. At a very basic level, this is a combination of the two previous devices―but on a much larger scale. These units communicate with Comverge's Demand Response units, like the Smart Thermostat, and are capable of adjusting electricity flow to entire regions. They work like a big regulator, constantly calculating exactly how much power a section of the grid needs and supplying only that amount.
As with the other devices, the Digital Capacitor Controller communicates wirelessly with buildings and the utility, supplying vital information that can dramatically reduce electricity consumption.
In addition to the previously mentioned product lines, Comverge also sells software and proprietary algorithms that utilities can integrate with their systems to achieve similar benefits.
Put Up or Pay Up!
Comverge is the only electricity demand company with a pay-for-performance business model, meaning they get paid by how well their products perform, i.e., how much energy they conserve and supply to the grid.
This strategy can go either way. But typically, incentive-based compensation can give long-term investors (especially big money), a boost of confidence. After completing a $40 million financing with GE Energy Financial Services in January, Comverge went public on April 13. The stock surged 16% on its opening day. And even after the anticipated selloff, the stock is still trading relatively close to its debut.
The next month, Comverge announced that it had entered into a demand reduction agreement with Nevada Power Company to supply a new Virtual Peaking Capacity (VPC) program of up to 126 MW of clean electric capacity . . . an agreement that could bring a potential $25 to $30 million in revenue between 2007 and 2009.
And on May 9, the company announced that the California Public Utilities Commission approved a Demand Response Purchase Agreement with PG&E. Under the agreement, a VPC program will provide up to 50 MW of electricity capacity in the first two years . . . bringing a potential $20 to $24 million in revenue during the five-year term of the program. Most recently, Comverge announced that it had executed a 10-year Virtual Peaking Capacity contract with The Connecticut Light and Power Company.
As of this writing, the company's managed capacity exceeds 1,600 megawatts, and has expected future contracted revenues of over $300 million. Get your free copy of Jeff Siegel's 2008 Alternative Energy Investing Report today and start profiting from the "green investing" now. Sign up for Green Chip Review and you will have immediate access to Jeff Siegel's 2008 Alternative Energy Investing
Report.
COMV
Nasdaq:
Comverge Inc.
G R E E N CH I P S T O C K S
Top Pick for Your 2008 Energy Portfolio - COMVERGE, INC.
by Jeff Siegel
Jeff Siegel
Internet Gold � Golden Lines
(Nasdaq:IGLD)
Petach-tikva, Israel
Internet Gold - Golden Lines is one of the most aggressive and successful new media and Internet service providers (ISPs) in Israel. The company's business lines are broadly based with operations carried out via 10 subsidiaries. Its core business is communication services with a secondary business in media.
The firm competes in six Internet/New Media markets in what is referred to as its 6-points of presence, including Internet Access, Value Added Web Services, International Telephony Services, Content and EAdvertising, E-Commerce, and numerous Internet Properties. The company's portfolio of Internet portals and e-Commerce sites are operated though its wholly owned subsidiary, Smile.Media.
Internet-related services are offered via its fully owned 012 Smile.Communications subsidiary, which holds a onethird share in the ISP market in Israel. The unit recently entered into Israel's local telephony market with the launch of its VOB (Voice Over Broadband) domestic telephony solution and is in the process of becoming the first ISP to hold a permanent unlimited VOB license in Israel. The Israel telephony market is estimated to be worth over $1 billion per year.
The international telephony business is operated via Golden Lines, a major player in the international telephony market in Israel, acquired in December 2006. This market, estimated at two billion minutes and $440 million per year, has strong growth metrics and is equally divided between three companies: Bezeq International, Golden Lines and Barak. With about 7.15 million people living in approximately two million households, and about one-third of Israel's labor force possessing a higher education degree, the market fits well with what the company offers. Financial Results
Latest Quarter: Q2, 2007
Revenues for the second quarter of 2007 were $69.7 million, up 209% from the year earlier second quarter. Smile.Communications' secondquarter revenues (including the operations of Golden Lines) increased 250% year-over-year to $65.3 million, while revenues for Smile.Media fell marginally to $4.5 million. The slight decline at Smile.Media was due to the temporary and intermittent closures of an e-Commerce site as a result of upgrades to the platform.
Net Income for the second quarter surged 233% year-over-year to a record US$5.3 million, or US$0.25 per share. This included a one-time charge of US$0.35 million related to the merger of 012 Smile.Communications and Golden Lines, along with an income tax benefit of US$1.5 million associated with Smile.Communications. Excluding these adjustments, net income for the second quarter was $4.15 million. The addition of Golden Lines has created synergies and increased profitability. Golden Lines reported record net income of $9.6 million, or $0.47 per share, in the first half of 2007, an increase of 206% over the comparative period in 2006.
Guidance and Outlook
The sole analyst covering Internet Gold, Dutton Associates, is estimating earnings of $0.94 per diluted share in 2007 on year-over-year revenue growth of 206% to $299.8 million. For 2008, earnings are estimated to rise to $1.27 per diluted share on revenues of $344.1 million. The estimated 2008 P/E is an attractive 8.35 times.
It was announced that on Oct. 29, Internet Gold will spin off its 012 Smile.Communications subsidiary, which operates a broadband Internet service, VoIP-based telephone and business services, and a network of Wi-Fi Internet access spots throughout Israel. After the deal closes, Internet Gold will own 73.3% of the 012 Smile.Communications business and all of its Smile.Media business, which provides online content, advertising, commerce and search services. Internet Gold hopes to net about $91.3 million from the offering of 6,675,000 shares at a price between $14 and $16 per share.
Concluding Remarks
The Internet media industry in Israel is competitive and still developing, but Internet Gold has competed favorably.
The firm's demonstrated ability to deliver profits suggests an ability to thrive in highly competitive environments. The company's entry into the VOB telephony market will add another key revenue stream and expand net income in the upcoming quarters.
Internet Gold has excellent upside potential and share price appreciation potential for the growth investor. China Investment Report: Top 7 Chinese Stocks for 2007: Get your free copy of our special report titled, 'China Investment Report: Top 7 Chinese Stocks for 2007.' You'll discover Growth Report's seven favorite investment opportunities in China. These are today's growth leaders and you'll find out how you can start seeing immediate profits. Don't let this opportunity to get exhaustive analysis and comprehensive reporting pass you by.
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G ROW T H R E P O R T
IGLD
Nasdaq:
Internet Gold-
Golden Lines
by Ian Wyatt
Striking Internet Gold in Israel
Ian Wyatt
Superheroes and comic books might seem like kid stuff ― they're anything but. All you need to do is look at the success of the Spider- Man franchise to see their massive profit potential: hundreds of millions in box office sales, merchandising, toys, games, you name it.
And I didn't bring up Spidey's name by accident: He is one of the many characters that belong to Marvel Enterprises (NYSE: MVL), a business that attracts children, adults, and investors alike.
Marvel has been a mainstay of the comic book business since 1939. The company still publishes comics today ― claiming a 45% share of the industry ― but it has also been branching out and finding alternative revenue streams. Most notably, it formed a highly profitable business by licensing its characters to companies that make toys, video games, theme parks … and, of course, movies.
Its portfolio holds an army of more than 5,000 superheroes, some of which have translated into blockbuster movie profits. In addition to Spider-Man, characters that have ascended to the big screen include X-Men, Fantastic Four, Blade, The Incredible Hulk, Daredevil, and Ghost Rider. Although not all of Marvel's superheroes are so well-known, the box office success of the movie Ghost Rider proves that even relatively obscure characters can get a strong response from audiences. This also says to us that superheroes are not a fad, and that these kinds of stories aren't likely to go out of style. You could probably argue that they're about as American as apple pie.
Your friendly neighborhood money machine A lot of things have changed since I first recommended Marvel for Stock Advisor back in 2002. At that time, the company was struggling with a turnaround, was mired down with debt, and Wall Street analysts didn't know it existed. (If they did, they didn't seem to care.)
Now, Marvel has cleaned up its balance sheet (although it has recently taken on some debt related to film production, which I will discuss in a moment), produced 14% annualized revenue growth for the last five years, and it generates an impressive amount of free cash flow. The company is expected to enjoy 18% annualized earnings growth for the next five years as well, although it has some plans that arguably make it difficult to gauge coming growth properly. That's not necessarily a bad thing, though.
Marvel takes a bigger bite
You see, the big news is that Marvel plans to begin producing its own films. Its first will be Iron Man, due to hit the theaters in 2008, and a Captain America movie is slated to follow. Just think of the implications of a smash-hit superhero movie franchise in which Marvel can keep all of the box office take, rather than just getting a cut from the movie studios.
To put it all into perspective, Spider-Man 3 raked in over $890 million worldwide ― but even Ghost Rider brought in nearly $230 million in its own right. Footing the bills will be more costly for Marvel, and it's a higher risk strategy, but it could also generate much higher rewards if the company cranks out more blockbuster hits.
I've re-recommended Marvel two times for my readers at Stock Advisor ― both of which have been extremely profitable ― and right now, we have yet another great opportunity to catch Marvel's rising star. Its stock price recently receded because of some short-term factors, such as the passing of Spider-Man 3 mania. (A little post- Spider-Man hangover isn't historically unheard of with Marvel.) But we Fools are in it for the long term, and Marvel is set to go up, up, and away in the coming years.
In Motley Fool Stock Advisor, Fool co-founders David and Tom Gardner bring you their best stock recommendations and other financial insights to help you achieve your financial dreams. Click here to access their free report, "The Motley Fool's 2 top Picks - Plus Wall Street's Dirtiest Secret."
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MVL
Marvel Enterprises
NYSE:
by David Gardner
A Superhero Stock
David & Tom Gardner
M O T L E Y F O O L S T O C K A D V I S O R
In a market decline high-growth, small-company stocks normally drop even more than the broader market does. And in a market rally they shoot higher than the rest. Small-value stocks, typically bolstered by asset-rich balance sheets, usually don't fluctuate so radically. Recently small value has been hit hard. Since the market peak in mid- July the Russell 2000 Value Index has fallen 8%, versus 6% for the Russell 2000 Growth Index. Sure, a shift toward growth was long overdue. From when technology stocks went bust in 2000 until the end of 2006, value performed very well. That's a long and unsustainable cycle.
The best strategy, then, is to find small-growth names that have held up well in this tough market. They likely will perform even better once the market recovers. My firm looks for profitable small companies with high revenue and earnings growth, particularly those that Wall Street analysts ignore.
NetSol Technologies Inc. (Nasdaq: NTWK), a leading global information technology provider to the financial services industry, is one example. The company offers solutions within two principal segments, enterprise software and IT outsourcing. Headquartered in Calabasas, California, NetSol specializes in custom software development and has more than 550 employees globally, with locations in the U.S., Europe, China and Asia Pacific. Within the enterprise software segment, the company currently offers three primary product offerings. LeaseSoft is an end-to-end core accounting and portfolio management solution for asset finance, consumer finance, loan finance and motor finance. LeaseSoft is sold primarily in the Asia-Pac region, with China showing significant growth in most recent fiscal year and representing the company's number one revenue generating market. LeasePak, a Webbased lease origination solution for dealers, vendors, brokers and remote sales forces, is sold primarily in the U.S.
NetSol's third product offering, inBanking, is a newer product suite offering an end-to-end solution for front, middle and back-office treasury requirements.
In the company's latest reported fourth quarter, sales increased approximately 84% to $8.6 million from $4.7 million in the fourth quarter of last year. NetSol Technologies reported earnings per share of $.07 in the latest reported fourth quarter versus a loss in the same quarter of last year.
Shares doubled in price from October of 2006 to October 2007. For the four financial quarters ended June 30, 2007, NetSol reported a cumulative loss of $5.46 million and revenue of $29.28 million. But the accelerating growth in sales and profits lead us to believe that NetSol is the type of emerging growth company that has helped us produce three decades of market beating returns.
Thirty-one years ago we began publishing a model portfolio with a stated objective of outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by an absolute 10 percentage points per year. We met that objective in 17 of the 30 full calendar years. I'm pleased to report that 2007 is shaping up to be another winner, with a 24.4% gain so far compared to 9.2% for the Dow (through September 30, 2007). Of course, the number that really counts is the longterm average return. Our Model Theoretical Portfolio has substantially exceeded our expectations with a compound rate of return of 24.0% compared to 8.8% for the DJIA, 9.0% for the S&P 500 Index (excluding dividends), and 11.5% for the NASDAQ Composite.
NetSol Technologies, Inc. (NTWK)
Recommended: 9/30/2007 @$2.98
Year ends in June 2006 2007 2008E
2006 Revenue: $18.7 million
2007 Revenue: $29.3 millions
2007 EPS: -$0.30
2008 (est.) Revenue: $45 million
2008 EPS: $0.25
For more than 30 years, The Oberweis Report has specialized in identifying the small companies that combine the best in both rapid growth and value investing. According to Jim Oberweis the time is ripe for investing in select small cap stocks. For example, Oberweis recommended Hansen Natural (HANS), a maker of energy drinks, on July 28, 2004 at a split-adjusted price of $2.38 per share. It now trades for $68.11 - a gain of 2,762%! (As of 10/18/07) To start your 30-day RISK-FREE trial subscription, including the complete list of Jim Oberweis's small cap buys and his latest Special Investment Report, "5 Small- Cap Super Stocks," click here today.
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NTWK
Nasdaq:
NetSol
Technologies, Inc.
by Jim Oberweis
Tiny Tech Stock with Global Ambitions
T H E O B E R W E I S R E P O R T
Jim Oberweis
Subscribers to Richard
Suttmeier's Sector Report and Value Raider for Small Stocks have learned to use good until cancelled (GTC) limit orders to add to positions on weakness to a Value Level and to reduce holdings on strength to a Risky Level, using Pivot prices in-between to capture short-term volatility. You should too!
Finding the Right Stocks
The Sector Report model portfolio has a minimum of 15 stocks and a maximum of 20 stocks. Each has a market capitalization above $200 million, trade above $10 per share, has a strong buy or buy rating according to ValuEngine, and are undervalued by at least 10% when they enter the portfolio. I like these stocks to be trading lower, and advocate dollar-costaveraging to build up to four trading positions in each stock. Then profits are taken on strength as these value plays come back into vogue.
Today's Top Pick
Gardner Denver, Inc. (NYSE: GDI) � makes compressor and vacuum products used in manufacturing, process applications, materials handling, and power air tools. They also make fluid transfer products such as pumps, water jetting systems, and related aftermarket parts used in oil and natural gas well drilling, servicing and production, and in industrial cleaning and maintenance. The stock entered the Sector Report model portfolio at $37.10 on August 8, on an upgrade to strong buy by ValuEngine, the fundamental stock screening service I use. GDI's fair value is $45.06, so there is upside to my semiannual risky level at $44.69, where profits should be taken. The Buy and Trade Strategy advocates adding to this position on weakness to my semiannual pivot at $37.59 and to my annual value level at $30.32. The Value Raider model portfolio allocates $100,000 virtual dollars into low-priced speculative stocks. Each has a market capitalization above $100 million, trade below $10 per share, has a strong buy or buy rating according to ValuEngine, and are undervalued by at least 10% when they enter the portfolio.
Whether you agree with my fundamental valuations, or technical observations does not really matter, as my proprietary analysis of nine years of data provides the levels at which to Buy and Tr a d e ! Where to Buy and Where to Sell - A "value level" is a price at which buyers should add to positions on share-price weakness. A "risky level" is a price at which sellers should reduce holdings on share-price gains. A "pivot" is a value or risky level that was violated in its time horizon, acting as a magnet during the remainder of that time horizon. These levels are calculated in weekly (W), monthly (M), quarterly (Q), semiannual (S) and annual (A) time horizons, based on the past nine closes in each time horizon. My theory is that the closes over a nine-year period are the summation of all bullish and bearish events for that market or specific stock. These levels are the most important element of my Buy and Trade Strategy. I also provide an analysis of the US Capital Markets � US Treasury yields, the key commodities, and major currencies. I have a few of the economy, and US stocks and that keys asset allocation for both Sector Report and Value Raider.
A Recession in the US Economy is Unavoidable The weakening housing and real estate markets will continue to be a drag on US economic growth for the next three years or so. Community and regional banks will experience losses worse than the housing recession of 1988 through 1992. The consumer continues to spend, but that sector of the economy is built on a "house of credit cards". My call is for Recession in 2008 � 2009.
So far the stronger than expected global economic backdrop has kept the major US equity averages stronger than they should be at this late stage of the economic and market cycles. The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 may have began the fourth quarter 2007 at new record highs, with the NASDAQ at a new multi-year high, but that does not change the fact that two economically sensitive averages lag. While the broader averages may have reached new milestones, the Dow Transports, the benchmark for the old economy and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), a benchmark for new economy tech spending were 9% below their 2007 highs. Transports hit a new all time high in July and the SOX as been below 560.00 since May 2002. Investment Strategy � Manage your equity allocations at a maximum of 50% of the end of 2006 exposures.
FREE RightSide Weekly Newsletter & Report: RightSide Advisor's Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier gives his Weekly Fearless Market Predictions and Overview. Plus, get our New Free Report: 'Real Estate and Housing - Going Under the Hood of our Nation's Banking System'
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GDI
NYSE:
Gardner Denver, Inc.
R I G H T S I D E A D V I S O R S
by Richard Suttmeier
Forget Buy and Hold, and Take Advantage of Market Swings Richard Suttmeier Fushi International
(Nasdaq: FSIN)
Jinzhou District, Dalian, Liaoning,
China
Fushi International (Fushi) is a China-based manufacturer of Copper Clad Aluminum (CCA) and Copper Clad Steel (CCS) or "bimetallic." Bimetallic wires have become attractive in recent years and could develop into a viable cost effective alternative to pure copper wires, which have seen significant upside moves in worldwide prices due to the rising demand for infrastructure investments in China and elsewhere.
Fushi currently controls approximately 17% of the domestic market for bimetallic cable, making it the largest China-based producer. By the end of 2006, the facility's capacity was 15,000 tons of bimetallic cable and was running at 90% utilization. The company intends to expand production to 20,000 tons in 2007 and 25,000 tons in 2008. Cost per production line is relatively low meaning lower capital for expansion. Fushi is in the process of expanding to 40 manufacturing lines using part of the proceeds from a $60 million debt financing. China has been the largest copper consumer in the world for five consecutive years and the growth trend is predicted to continue. Industry analysts predict that 20% of China's cable and power transmission wire needs will be met by bimetallic wire over the next 5 years. The Optical and Electronic Cable Association of China estimates demand for CCA wire to increase to 290,000 annual tons in 2008 from 70,000 tons in 2006. From 2004 to 2006, the demand for bimetallic wire has increased at a 91.3% CAGR. The growth potential for bimetallic wire is staggering as it presently represents a minute 1.5% of the total copper wire usage.
Financial Results Latest Quarter: Q2, 2007 For the second quarter of 2007, revenues increased 42.3% year-overyear to $26.1 million from $18.3 million in the comparative quarter in 2006. The volume of bimetallic products sold increased 37% in the second quarter. Strong growth was reported in coaxial cable (about 59.1% of sales), magnet wire (about 16.2%), and shielding wire (about 24.7%). Gross profit for the second quarter was $9.7 million, up 18.6% from the year before. The gross margin was 37%, up sequentially for the third straight quarter, but down from 44.4% in the year ago quarter due to the high copper prices last year.
Net income fell to $7 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, in the second quarter, down from $7.2 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, last year, but up 40.4% sequentially.
The balance sheet has cash of $75.2 million and long-term notes payable of $60 million at the end of the second quarter. The cash allows for financial flexibility as the company expands its production capacity and introduces new products. Payments on the note payable should notvbe an issue given the strong cash flow. Guidance and Outlook
In 2007, analysts see Fushi posting EPS of $1.13. For 2008, the consensus analyst estimate calls for diluted EPS to increase 36.3% year-overyear to $1.54 on projected revenues of $151.8 million in 2008.
On Sept. 25, Fushi announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of Copperweld Bimetallics, LLC, the leading U.S. manufacturer of bimetallic wire in an all-cash transaction valued at USD$22.5 million, including the assumption of debt, and is subject to adjustment based upon Copperweld's net working capital at closing. Fushi expects the transaction to be finalized at the beginning of the fourth quarter 2007.
Concluding Remarks
For China to sustain its amazing growth, it must invest heavily in infrastructure. A firm such as Fushi, a manufacturer of key inputs for infrastructure related products, is well-positioned to capitalize on this explosive growth. While the company has enjoyed remarkable growth in the past, there is more yet to come.
For the growth investor looking for a small-cap infrastructure play to partake in China's massive buildup, Fushi would make a good pick. Profit from Alternative Energy Investing: Top 5 Picks for 2007: Get your free copy of "Alternative Energy Investing 2007: 5 Top Stocks Set for Profits" from the research staff at Rising Star Stocks. The same research team that's delivered a 33.6% average annual return to readers of Rising Star Stocks. In this urgent special report you'll discover the four most profitable sectors in alternative energy and the ones to stay away from. Inside this must-read special report you'll get our five top picks for 2007 that hold the most potential for individual investors.
10
FSIN
Nasdaq:
Fushi
International
by Ian Wyatt
A Small-Cap Infrastructure Play Ian Wyatt
R I S I N G S T A R S T O C K S
At Schaeffer's Investment Research, we employ a 3- tiered analysis approach known as Expectational Analysis? (EA) that was created more than 2 decades ago. EA utilizes traditionalvmethods of fundamental and technical analysis and combines these with a third, crucial look at investor sentiment. It is this third layer of analysis that provides a critical edge in selecting stock and option plays. Both anecdotal and quantifiable measures of investor sentiment provide a window into how the investing crowd perceives reality. These perceptions serve as powerful contrarian indicators, as the crowd tends to move as a herd and is, to paraphrase the venerable contrarian Humphrey Neill, "right during the trend but wrong at both ends." A look into the psyche of the collective investing masses, while also taking into account important technical and fundamental variables, can offer a reliable recipe for trading success.
The latest opportunity unearthed by the EA methodology is Fossil (FOSL). According to Hoover's, Fossil (FOSL) is a leading mid-priced watchmaker in the U.S. The company's brands include its Fossil and Relic watches, as well as licensed names Giorgio Armani, Michael Kors, adidas, Burberry, Marc Jacobs, and Donna Karan and private-label watches for Walt Disney. The retailer also distributes fashion accessories, such as leather goods, sunglasses, and a line of apparel. The firm sells through department stores and specialty shops in more than 90 countries and some 150 company-owned U.S. stores.
On August 14, the company marched into the earnings confessional to reveal a second-quarter profit of $14.7 million, or 21 cents per share, compared to its year-ago profit of $11.2 million, or 16 cents. Sales during the 3-month period climbed more than 18% to $306.5 million. Analysts had predicted earnings of 19 cents per share.
Technically speaking, the shares have enjoyed a stellar rally since September 2006, rising along their 10-week and 20-week moving averages. During this time frame, the equity has suffered only 4 weekly closes below both of these trendlines. What's more, the stock has easily surpassed its peers in the Retail HOLDRS Trust (RTH) on a weekly basis since May 2006. In fact, the equity has tacked on an impressive 66% since the start of 2007, while the RTH has added only 1% and the S&P 500 Index has increased less than 8%.
As followers of the EA method, we ideally like to see solid price action persist despite a backdrop of skepticism; this implies that there could be additional money waiting on the sidelines that hasn't yet been committed to the bullish cause. It seems as though there is plenty of room on the bullish FOSL bandwagon. Options players have leveled some heavy bearish bets against the stock in an attempt to call a top to its uptrend. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio for FOSL stands at 1.15, as put open interest easily outweighs call open interest among near-term options. This reading is also higher than 84% of those taken during the past year. In other words, short-term options speculators have been more bearishly aligned against the shares only 16% of the time during the prior 12 months.
Short sellers have also loaded up on the pessimistic positions when it comes to this trendy retailer. In September, the number of FOSL shares sold short increased by 10% to nearly 5 million shares. This hefty buildup of bearish bets accounts for more than 11% of the company's float and is 7 times the stock's average daily trading volume. As investors unwind their bearish bets and jump on the stock's bandwagon, they will help to push the security even higher.
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11
FOSL
Nasdaq:
Fossil
S C H A E F F E R ' S P O W E R S T O C K S
by Bernie Schaeffer
Digging Up Undiscovered Gems: Fossil
Bernie Schaeffer
12
Quintana Maritime Limited
(Nasdaq: QMAR)
Glyfada, Greece
Quintana Maritime Limited is a Greece-based provider of dry bulk cargo marine transportation services to the global market. With an insatiable appetite for large bulk dry commodities such as coal, iron and grains growing from massive emerging economies such as China and India, as well as the Middle East, Africa and Asia, the demand for bulk water transportation is strong and expected to continue.
While the key catalyst is the surging demand for commodities to build infrastructure and satisfy consumer and business demand, the distances required to transport goods to some of the farthest countries translates into higher revenues for the dry bulk shippers. Quintana is a key player benefiting from the global growth.
The company's shipyards comprise of a relatively new fleet of 22 company-owned vessels along with seven Panamax vessels that are operated under "bareboat charters," an arrangement in which only the vessel is rented.
The total carrying capacity of the 29 vessels is 2,644,043 deadweight tonnage (dwt). Quintana also has plans for expansion and expects to add another eight vessels in which one will be owned while the other seven are owned in part via joint ventures. The carrying capacity will increase to 4,086,043 dwt subsequent to the additions.
Clients are global in nature and include trading houses, public companies, vessel owners and operators, major producers of raw materials and governments. About two-thirds of goods shipped around the world is done so by sea― it's also cheaper to transport bulk goods and often the only alternative to ground transport. China continues to be on an extraordinary economic growth path, and its neighbor India, with 1.13 billion people, will probably be the next big growth region.
While the shipping industry is cyclical and driven largely by economic growth, current estimates toward the dry bulk shipping market are bullish. The Baltic Dry Index, a widely used measure of dry bulk shipping rates based on 40 shipping routes, is currently trading at a record high of near 11,000, up a staggering 450% since January 2006. Rates for shipping will be higher in 2008 driven by new iron ore production over the next 12 months, according to analyst Douglas Mavrinac at Jefferies & Co. Investment firm Morgan Stanley is also bullish over the upcoming two years.
Financial Results
Latest Quarter: Q2, 2007
For the second quarter of 2007, Quintana reported net revenues of $59.7 million, up a whopping 203% from $19.7 million in the comparative quarter in 2006.
Adjusted net earnings excluding a non-cash unrealized swap gain of $11.5 million surged 336% to $18.3 million, or $0.32 per diluted share, in the second quarter, from $4.2 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, in the prior year. The strong earnings gain was due to Quintana having 29 ships in service versus 10 for the comparable quarter. Note the second quarter 2007 EPS calculation was based on about 56.6 million outstanding shares, compared to about 24 million in the year ago second quarter, which explains why the EPS increase was not as dramatic.
The balance sheet had cash of $41.5 million and long-term debt of $807.6 million at the end of the second quarter. The debt level is high but not surprising, given the high capital requirements of acquiring vessels for expansion.We are not concerned, as Quintana has good cash flow and is profitable. The company also recently paid down $185 million of debt with funds raised via a sale-leaseback transaction.
Quintana increased its quarterly dividend payment in the second quarter by about 30% to $0.31 per share for a current yield of about 4.60%.
Guidance and Outlook Quintana is estimated to continue to report strong growth over the next year. For 2007, the consensus analyst estimate calls for Quintana to earn $1.32 per diluted share, up 80.8% year-over-year, on projected revenue growth of 122.3% to $229.7 million. Earnings in 2008 are expected to increase 72% to $2.27 per diluted share. Revenues in 2008 are projected to rise 31.5% year-over-year to $302 million.
Concluding Remarks
The company just announced it would investigate strategic alternatives to increase shareholder value, albeit no details were released. Possibilities include the sale of the company, as Quintana may want to cash out at this high point, or perhaps make a strategic acquisition to expand, but there is no guarantee of either action.
Given the positive outlook toward the dry bulk marine transportation business and the pivotal role Quintana is playing, we feel there is good upside for the growth investor looking for a play on growth in the world economies.
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QMAR
Nasdaq:
by Ian Wyatt
Profit from the Surging Global Demand for Commodities
Quintana
Maritime Limited
Ian Wyatt
T O P S T O C K I N S I G H T S
13
Strong Buy Recommendation
Oil Sands Quest (AMEX: BQI) $4.35 12-Month target $12.00 This stock is an oil sands play, that's poised to more than double within 12 months and more than triple within 24 months. Oilsands Quest has projects in the oil and gas industry in Western Canada with an emphasis on oil sands and oil shale exploration.
Oilsands Quest currently owns the largest single continuous piece of oil sands (aka. "tar sands") land holdings anywhere in the world. While they also own oil sands exploration permits in eastern Alberta, Canada, Oilsands Quest is the originator of Saskatchewan's emerging oil sands industry. Exploration for commercially viable oil sands deposits has traditionally focused on Alberta Canada, the province west of Saskatchawan. But it's in the untapped province of Saskatchewan where Oilsands Quest has had highly successful oil sands exploration results (specifically the northwest region).
By applying its technical expertise to develop multiple global-scale discoveries, they are aggressively exploring their 700,000+ acres of contiguous oil sands. The company's Saskatchewan oil sands permits (100% owned) now total over 500,000 acres.
Based on strong exploration indications, after drilling only 5% of their massive land holdings, Oilsands Quest believes they're are already currently sitting at more than 10 billion barrels. They estimate that'll likely increase significantly over the next 12 months.
Their main project right now is their Axe Lake Discovery in northwest Saskatchewan, a world-class bitumen resource. Just in Axe Lake alone, they estimate sitting on 2.5 billion barrels, 1.5 of which is already classified as discovered after only 2 years of drillings.
Independent labs will examine all drilling data and producing a report sometime this fall. The results are very likely to support what management is claiming (a barrel count of an estimated 1.5 bil barrels.)
Oilsands Quest has been accelerating their activities at its Axe Lake Discovery in preparation for their field pilot program in the first half of 2008. Oilsands' planned field test of the reservoir is intended to evaluate reservoir response to varying pressures and temperatures.
They restructured the company with awesome new management team in August 2006.
Before joining Oilsands Quest, the President & CEO, Christopher H. Hopkins lead the exploration team Synenco Energy that found 2.2 billion barrels in Alberta. He and his team are proven oil sands finders.
He brought that same management to Oilsands Quest to work on their discovery efforts.
As they continue drilling programs through the winter in Saskatchewan as well as Alberta where they estimate to have 4-5 billion barrels, I think probable discoveries will likely move the stock closer to $8.00.
ABOUT OIL SANDS INDUSTRY
Oils sands (aka, tar sands) are a mixture of sand or clay, water, and extremely heavy crude oil.
Conventional crude oil is easily extracted from the ground but tar sand deposits must be strip-mined or made to flow into producing wells using steam and/or solvents. These processes use a great deal of water and require large amounts of energy, so there's a higher cost in producing oil from Tar sands.
But costs of producing oil from tar sands are going down due to technology, and the price of oil is high, making tar sands a highly profitable venture.
The world's largest deposits occur in Canada, a politically friendly country. This volume places Canadian proven oil reserves second in the world behind those of Saudi Arabia. Alberta, Canada is capable of being a major player on the world oil market for the rest of this century. (Oilsands Quest's land holdings are strategically located in Alberta and just over the Alberta/Saskatchewan boarder.) The Alberta Energy Utilities Board (AEUB) estimates there are 1.6 trillion barrels of bitumen resource in place in Alberta.
Realizing the Potential of Canada's Oil Sands Resources North America's energy needs are increasingly being met by Canada's oil sands. Canada is now the largest single supplier of oil and refined products to the United States.
By 2020, the oil sands are expected to provide 80% of Canada's oil production. Oil Sands Quest At A Glance
BQI
AMEX:
by Christopher Rowe
Oilsands Quest
Oilsands Quest
Christopher Rowe
T H E T YC O O N R E P O R T
Current Price: $4.90
52Wk High: 5.51s
52Wk Low: 2.37
Avg Vol: 2.54M
Earnings: 2007 (-0.50) est. 2007 (-0.06)
Share Statistics
Shares Outstanding6:186.47M
Float:181.05M
% Held by Insiders4:4.18%
% Held by Institutions4:22.00%
Market Cap (intraday)6:7917.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq):53.36M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq):0.286
Total Debt (mrq):0
Total Debt/Equity (mrq):N/A
Current Ratio (mrq):6.478
Book Value Per Share (mrq):2.355
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm):-37.41M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm):-90.33M 14
AVodafone bid for US partner Verizon Communica-tions may or may not be in the cards. But increasingly strong US utes are proving ever more difficult for cash-rich and regulation-wary European giants to resist.
Ironically, as those would-be acquirers get set to feast on US utilities, they're also great buys for American investors. Foreign utes best their US counterparts in a comparison of profitability to market prices.
Not every foreign utility has paid off recently. Venezuela, for example, forced small investors to accept an inferior price for national telecom CANTV, once it had cashed out Verizon.
New Zealand regulators are breaking up Telecom New Zealand. Europe's chief utility bureaucrat is Vivianne Redding, who's hell-bent on manufacturing competition by tying the hands of incumbents.
Nonetheless, the best foreign utes will continue to meet and beat the impressive returns they've handed American investors the past several years.
Keeping Trusts On Halloween night 2006, Canada's minority Conservative Party government announced it would begin taxing Canadian income trusts as corporations beginning in 2011. Following the initial sell-off, trusts backed by good businesses have staged a remarkable recovery.
Takeover interest, primarily from private capital, has undeniably been the spark. But it's also increasingly clear that most trusts' burdens will be closer to the 6.7 percent effective tax rate paid by the typical Canadian corporation than the official 31.5 percent rate. As a result, many will have the wherewithal to continue paying big dividends well past 2011. Like US rural telecoms, Bell Aliant Regional Communications Income Fund reaps steady, high cash flows by up-selling its basic customers to broadband service faster than it loses them to competition.
That's a formula for high dividends and modest growth to 2011 and beyond.
The trust is 44 percent owned by former parent BCE, which has accepted a takeover offer from the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board and a private capital consortium. This raises the possibility that its Bell Aliant interest could be sold in early 2008 when the deal is completed. BCE's new owners are certain to preserve Bell's market value and could actually launch a high-premium takeover for the other 56 percent.
Breaking Down Borders
Utility empire builders always face a chorus of skeptics. But as the fortyfold rise in shares of Spain's Telefonica since the late 1980s proves, there are few better investments than those that succeed. Over the past decade, the company's spent some $138 billion on expansion. Today, roughly a third of revenue comes from its home market in Spain, a third is earned by wireless operations elsewhere in Europe and the rest is from high-growth properties in Latin America. Telefonica's 22-country operation generates some of the industry's fattest profit margins, allowing the company to simultaneously slash debt and pursue growth. Recent deals include the purchase of a 10 percent stake in China Netcom and an ownership stake in Telecom Italia.
Despite some recent share gains, Telefonica is still relatively cheap. A management-imposed moratorium on new deals expires at the end of 2007. But given the company's stellar track record, which spans several management teams, I'm betting on the obvious: more successes. Spanish power ute Iberdrola became the world's leading wind power producer by buying Scottish Power. It's now taking its act to the US with an offer to buy New England/New York transmission and distribution utility EnergyEast. And it plans to dramatically expand its marketleading wind power presence in Europe, where demand is projected to double by 2015.
"Buy the target, sell the acquirer" is a Wall Street strategy that's followed reflexively, though it makes no sense for long-term investors. As a result, Iberdrola's successful dealing has left it a cheap stock, ripe for a nearterm lift from an upcoming offering of a portion of its wind operations.
In little more than a decade, Vodafone has amassed a wireless empire serving more than 200 million customers on six continents. And it's still growing rapidly, adding customers in India at a 60 percent-plus annualized rate in June alone.
The stock sells for just 1.29 times book value, barely a quarter of Telefonica and a sixth the level of troubled Telecom New Zealand because of continued uncertainty about its 45 percent stake in Verizon Wireless. The company's also rumored to be considering an outright takeover of Verizon.
This is all speculation for those of us lacking a seat on Vodafone's board. What's certain is this is a high-value company that's still dirt cheap despite recent gains. Vodafone is a buy up to 35.
Utility Forecaster editor Roger Conrad is now offering his top 2 income stocks for FREE when you sign up for his complementary income investing e-letter. Each issue covers the market's highest-yielding Canadian trusts, utility and telecom stocks. Click here to receive your free copy of "Preferred Road To Income" today.
VOD
NYSE:
by Roger Conrad
Foreign Exposure Vodafone
U T I L I T Y F O R E C A S T E R
Roger Conrad
A B O U T O U R S P O N S O R
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