I bet you don't own enough gold.
Before you tell me I'm wrong, let me ask it this way...
If inflation returns, or even hyperinflation...
If the economic crisis persists and gets worse...
If uncertainty and fear continue, and chaos and rioting begin...
If top stock markets languish or suffer another meltdown...
If the recovery spending of the world's governments proves futile...
If government interference in the economy continues to increase...
If the value of the U.S. dollar takes a major fall...
If world recovery from the current recession/depression takes years...
If you're still wondering whether you have enough "safe" money...
Would you feel you own enough gold?
If all those things come to pass, I suspect many of us, including myself, would wish we had a few extra gold coins or bars stashed away.
So let's assume you answered "No" to my question and need to add some ounces to your collection…is now a good time to buy?
The Best Time to Buy Gold?
Before glancing at the chart below, if you had to pick the month with the weakest average gold price, which would you select?
In our current 8-year bull market, June has seen the lowest return for gold. In other words, it's been, on average, one of the best times to buy.
How does this compare to the bull market of the 1970s?
In the last great bull market, summer also was a good time to buy gold (although April was even better.)
Since 2001, July and October have been the weakest months for gold stocks to buy, as measured by the AMEX Gold Bugs Index, and the best times to buy.
However, keep in mind that these are price tendencies and not certainties. There were Junes when gold was up, and some Julys when gold stocks 2010 were up. Meaning, avoid using this chart for trading purposes or in anticipation of an immediate gain. Instead, use it to prepare for possible gold price weakness ahead. And if the weakness shows up, treat it as a buying opportunity and add to your holdings to position yourself for the next leg up in the bull market. Consider that this summer could be the last chance to buy gold for three figures.
Don't lose sight of where we are at this point in the recession ― in an intermission in the bad economic news. When it becomes apparent that the good ole days aren't coming back, sentiment ― and markets ― could move rapidly. And gold is one of the best forms of capital that can protect you in a financial Armageddon. That gold was up in 2008 is a reminder of its protective power.
How much gold should you have? Continue to accumulate physical gold until you can honestly say you don't care how many dollars Ben Bernanke prints.
Having physical gold in your possession is always a good idea in times of economic turmoil ― there is no "uncertainty hedge" like it. But to actually make money, you should also look at premium gold stocks to buy. Our current favorite has been so consistently successful that we call it "48 Karat Gold."
Consider that this summer could be the last chance to buy gold for three figures."
Yikes.
The reports of my impending death have been greatly exaggerated.
A lot of you Shooters seemed to have gotten the impression that your editor is a smoker. There are things that could be further from the truth, but that particular notion is still pretty far away.
I readily confess to having cultivated the habit for most of my twenties, but that was only because I was also abusing alcohol and keeping company with barflies, floozies and unionized utility workers. I had a bad case of lifestyle dissonance, i.e. the life I lead was examined and found wanting. I turned to tobacco and alcohol to mute the pain.
Now that I'm Whiskey editor-in-chief, my lifestyle comports with my inner dialogue. My anxieties have vanished and the urge to numb myself with booze and tobacco has gone as well. My drinking nowadays is woefully rare, but always includes shots of bourbon. Sometimes those shots are partnered with a single cigarette usually bummed off of LIR editor and occasional Whiskey bartender Jim Nelson.
To your letters…
A Shooter sends this:
I was reading what one reader wrote about unsubscribing. Why? I personally like Mr. Kuntsler's observations. And about being an idiot for smoking: I like the comments on obesity. Being lazy and sedentary kills as many, if not more than smoking. So please keep up the good work. I enjoy the comments, too.
I was reading what one reader wrote about unsubscribing. Why? I personally like Mr. Kuntsler's observations. And about being an idiot for smoking: I like the comments on obesity. Being lazy and sedentary kills as many, if not more than smoking. So please keep up the good work. I enjoy the comments, too.
You know, I wonder the same thing. Once Big Brother starts making laws to protect your health and to protect you from your own bad decisions, where does it stop? Will federal troops force everyone to do daily jumping jacks at gunpoint?
Another Shooter writes: "I like Amrhein, and I like Kunstler. Why can't we get both?"
Mmm…because of letters like this…
Gary:
Please spare me the pain of reading Mr. Kunstler.
I am a subscriber to many of Agora's publications and look forward to your daily letter, but first thing I do is check if Mr. K is writing.
If that's the case, I automatically push the delete button. The guy is insufferable.
Gary:
Please spare me the pain of reading Mr. Kunstler.
I am a subscriber to many of Agora's publications and look forward to your daily letter, but first thing I do is check if Mr. K is writing.
If that's the case, I automatically push the delete button. The guy is insufferable.
But seriously…there will continue to be Kunstler aplenty at this bar…but we'll likely be hearing from Mr. Amrhein again, too. The overlap of world-shaking resource scarcity and personal liberty is part of our beat, after all.
Gary,
Although I have disagreements with Kunstler myself, I find those who would censor him from your site, well, shortsighted, as are those who would unsubscribe. Of course they have a perfect right to do whatever they choose, but how boring and intellectually un-stimulating it is to confine oneself to only those with whom we already agree. Keep on challenging your readers to think for themselves and don't make it easy for us.
Gary,
Although I have disagreements with Kunstler myself, I find those who would censor him from your site, well, shortsighted, as are those who would unsubscribe. Of course they have a perfect right to do whatever they choose, but how boring and intellectually un-stimulating it is to confine oneself to only those with whom we already agree. Keep on challenging your readers to think for themselves and don't make it easy for us.
Thanks. I will.
My heart has been heavy these past couple of days, but here is an brief note that lightened it…
Great email on Banking and the free market. I cringe every time I hear it's a free market problem. Keep up the good work. You're changing minds my brother finally woke up to what's going on. I send him your emails all the time.
Thanks for the sanity in an insane world.
Great email on Banking and the free market. I cringe every time I hear it's a free market problem. Keep up the good work. You're changing minds my brother finally woke up to what's going on. I send him your emails all the time.
Thanks for the sanity in an insane world.
I thought Dan's article was quite the little gem, too. Thanks for appreciating it. But another Shooter has this to add…
Hi Gary,
Dan should know that it wasn't the failure of the Government Beaurocracy that caused the lending boondoggle which will end up tanking the USA.
The Government Bureaucracy worked very well: The government ORDERED AND THREATENED the banks and mortgage companies to make shaky mortgages to people who would just as soon rent as own, and who looked at mortgages like "6 months of free rent" because there was no down payment, no closing costs (except those put on the "back end" of the mortgage, which never would get paid). And Fannie and Freddie were snapping up these mortgages like candy.
It's no secret that the voter base for the Democrat Party is largely on food stamps, and the Government pushed for home ownership and "Fair Lending Practices" to ostensibly boost their voter base up the economic ladder. Pride of home ownership and all that.
Mortgagor requirements were loosened up so much that if it were a belt size, the wearer would lose his pants. As it is, we're losing our shirts.
Hi Gary,
Dan should know that it wasn't the failure of the Government Beaurocracy that caused the lending boondoggle which will end up tanking the USA.
The Government Bureaucracy worked very well: The government ORDERED AND THREATENED the banks and mortgage companies to make shaky mortgages to people who would just as soon rent as own, and who looked at mortgages like "6 months of free rent" because there was no down payment, no closing costs (except those put on the "back end" of the mortgage, which never would get paid). And Fannie and Freddie were snapping up these mortgages like candy.
It's no secret that the voter base for the Democrat Party is largely on food stamps, and the Government pushed for home ownership and "Fair Lending Practices" to ostensibly boost their voter base up the economic ladder. Pride of home ownership and all that.
Mortgagor requirements were loosened up so much that if it were a belt size, the wearer would lose his pants. As it is, we're losing our shirts.
Best Stocks Market 2010
No, the Government did not fail: The Government and their bureaucracies worked too well.
Yup. Government totally enabled this one. Totally.
Yup. Government totally enabled this one. Totally.
Now along comes a statist…with dire portents…
There will be seven billion people on this planet and soon there will be eight billion and if you libertarians think that you or and the rest of us can retain our so called individual liberties to do as we damn please such as smoking or screwing up the environment then you better rethink the matter. I don't want anyone stinking up my limited airspace with his or her cigarette smoke thereby contributing to the cancer producing gases emitted by power plants that are surely destroying not merely our right to breathe but our general health. Mr. Kunstler is offering an opportunity to consider alternatives to what may be an unmanageable future considering our burgeoning population and the enormous problems they will create. We are losing huge amounts of topsoil annually, one third of our arable land is in drought, our infrastructure is in ruins. Our economic future is in jeopardy by the flagrant abuse of our currency. We fight and hate one another for the most stupid of reasons and some of us insist that we have rights.
There will be seven billion people on this planet and soon there will be eight billion and if you libertarians think that you or and the rest of us can retain our so called individual liberties to do as we damn please such as smoking or screwing up the environment then you better rethink the matter. I don't want anyone stinking up my limited airspace with his or her cigarette smoke thereby contributing to the cancer producing gases emitted by power plants that are surely destroying not merely our right to breathe but our general health. Mr. Kunstler is offering an opportunity to consider alternatives to what may be an unmanageable future considering our burgeoning population and the enormous problems they will create. We are losing huge amounts of topsoil annually, one third of our arable land is in drought, our infrastructure is in ruins. Our economic future is in jeopardy by the flagrant abuse of our currency. We fight and hate one another for the most stupid of reasons and some of us insist that we have rights.
A bit presumptuous to declare that the biosphere will gladly sustain another few billion bipeds, isn't it?
The answer to dire straits isn't collectivism and slavery, Shooters. I'd argue that runaway population and unsustainable lifestyles are far more encouraged by the sort of centralized control that ignores the sort of feedback that makes the market the supreme allocating mechanism.
Is anyone still under the impression that I'm suggesting there's a Chinaman's chance of a gentle landing? Whiskey credo number three (I think): Sometimes there's no forgiveness or bargaining; sometimes there's only punishment. As founder and leading light Bill Bonner would remind us: Capitalism's job isn't getting people what they want; it's job is getting them what they deserve…good and hard.
The vulgar little chimp known as man has painted himself into a really uncomfortable corner this time: Industrial urban sprawl…centralized nation-state governance with fiat currencies everywhere you look…thieving, redistributive taxation slavery…runaway breeding…resource scarcity…all the things on the Whiskey beat!
There's a whole world of correction waiting to take place. The horses of the apocalypse are chomping and straining at the bit.
Lions, tigers, bears…!
I'm going to self-medicate right now with a shot of Maker's Mark, and then step out of the way to let these next letters answer the statist rant above…
Our whole world is going to pot; Give it 3 or 4 more years we won't be able to move without nosy people and the government up our ass 24-7. I have the right to make my own choices. I don't need someone else making them for me. I am not two years old and I don't need mommy and daddy and nosy people telling me how to run my life. They need to clean their own doorstep first. That will keep them busy for at least 50 years.
Take that, statist!
RE: "Interfere"
Dear Gary,
Please be careful with this word. Much as President Clinton had trouble defining the meaning of "is", busybodies and parasites use words like this to attach themselves to our money and liberties. We, meaning fellow travelers like Dr. Harshaw, who agree people should be left alone, need to secure the definition of this and similar words.
Blowing smoke, watering the lawn, playing the stereo and otherwise just plain living interferes with other people. No one could have shoved taxes, fees, and laws down the rest of our throats if the definition of this word wasn't up for grabs.
Plain speaking, plain dealing folks take words for granted but the pointy headed intellectuals from ivy walled, ivory towered academia have long delighted in the minutia of words and their definitions. It isn't simply the economic underpinnings of our society that are facing dissolution but the soundness of our culture, expressed through our words, that needs, at the very least, shoring up to prevent a real and lasting disaster.
Dear Gary,
Please be careful with this word. Much as President Clinton had trouble defining the meaning of "is", busybodies and parasites use words like this to attach themselves to our money and liberties. We, meaning fellow travelers like Dr. Harshaw, who agree people should be left alone, need to secure the definition of this and similar words.
Blowing smoke, watering the lawn, playing the stereo and otherwise just plain living interferes with other people. No one could have shoved taxes, fees, and laws down the rest of our throats if the definition of this word wasn't up for grabs.
Plain speaking, plain dealing folks take words for granted but the pointy headed intellectuals from ivy walled, ivory towered academia have long delighted in the minutia of words and their definitions. It isn't simply the economic underpinnings of our society that are facing dissolution but the soundness of our culture, expressed through our words, that needs, at the very least, shoring up to prevent a real and lasting disaster.
And that!
Best Stocks Investment
I'm not a tobacco smoker, but I agree. The U.S. Government is getting into areas it doesn't belong. Once they regulate tobacco, where does it stop? Next might be alcohol (shades of Prohibition). Then they might decide to limit the amount of horsepower on autos, then chocolates, sugar content, plastic, etc. There's no end to where the politicians go once they smell success in one area. Our freedom of choice is gradually eroding by the federal government. Our founders had no intention of the federal government taking over so much of our freedoms.
Amen!
Hi Gary:
I don't usually comment on other shooters opinions, but here goes: At what point do we no longer consider ourselves 'free'? I keep hearing complaints about what someone else does that will result in 'costing me' tax dollars, or having some other negative economic impact that will somehow affect 'me'.
If we require folks to wear a motorcycle helmet, not smoke, don't drink to what 'I' would define as excess, and so on throughout all of our personal liberties, whither goest 'freedom'? By the way, I do not ride motorcycles, and have never smoked, but I defend the right of others to do so as they wish.
I am sick and tired of the whining about what the cost for 'freedom' is. That is nothing but a cop-out. If we want a free society we must be prepared to pay for stupid decisions, harmful to themselves, made by our fellow citizens. It's called part of the OVERHEAD COSTS of running a truly free country. If we do not want to have personal freedoms, just admit it, and keep on with what we are doing.
Does it seem to you that W.A.S.A. (whiners and snivelers association) is a large organization that seems to be growing? Is that part of the decline and fall?
Keep up the good work. W&G is making money for me so don't change anything...
Hi Gary:
I don't usually comment on other shooters opinions, but here goes: At what point do we no longer consider ourselves 'free'? I keep hearing complaints about what someone else does that will result in 'costing me' tax dollars, or having some other negative economic impact that will somehow affect 'me'.
If we require folks to wear a motorcycle helmet, not smoke, don't drink to what 'I' would define as excess, and so on throughout all of our personal liberties, whither goest 'freedom'? By the way, I do not ride motorcycles, and have never smoked, but I defend the right of others to do so as they wish.
I am sick and tired of the whining about what the cost for 'freedom' is. That is nothing but a cop-out. If we want a free society we must be prepared to pay for stupid decisions, harmful to themselves, made by our fellow citizens. It's called part of the OVERHEAD COSTS of running a truly free country. If we do not want to have personal freedoms, just admit it, and keep on with what we are doing.
Does it seem to you that W.A.S.A. (whiners and snivelers association) is a large organization that seems to be growing? Is that part of the decline and fall?
Keep up the good work. W&G is making money for me so don't change anything...
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