AAPL: Hong Kong iPhone Rush Partly Supply Issue, Says Ticonderoga

Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities this morning says Apple (AAPL) shares will be “held hostage” to various data points from the supply chain until it becomes clear just how the company’s production of iPhone and iPad fared this quarter, which should happen as the quarter progresses and more data points emerge.

White has a Buy rating and a $666 price target on Apple shares.

White is responding to rumors over the last 48 hours suggesting Apple had cut or delayed some production of the devices, with vague attributions to anonymous supply chain sources. Wedge Partners’s Brian Blair dismissed those rumors today, while Susquehanna chip analyst Christopher Caso thinks there may well be delays in production.

White himself yesterday cited in a note to clients what he calls the “Apple barometer” of supplier trends for the company as being relatively weak in October, though he’s not sure whether that means anything real in terms of how things are tracking.

White notes in a letter to clients today that Apple’s newest iPhone, the “4S,” sold out in just three hours when it went on sale at Apple’s brand new Hong Kong store this morning. That, despite the fact the device does not support mandarin language in its “Siri” voice assistant feature.

In a phone call this afternoon, White remarked to me that he thinks the fast sell-out, following pre-orders for Hong Kong selling out in just six minutes last week, may point to some supply constraint for the device.

“Apple likes to sell out, but I really don’t think Apple wants to sell out in six minutes,” White tells me.

“There could be a supply issue out there. That may be why the October barometer was weak.R! 21;

< p>Regarding the iPad, White reiterated a claim he’d made back in October, which is that Apple did, indeed, cut some iPad production orders, after taking “a little more of cautious view based on the economy,” and perhaps somewhat in response to the unveiling of Amazon.com’s “Kindle Fire” tablet last month, which could prove a viable competitor for consumers of low-priced tablet computers.

All of this will become clearer as the quarter moves along and more data becomes available, White concludes.

Apple shares today are down $1.27 at $383.95.