How do you pick stocks in a market defined by unpredictability? With caution and a heavy dose of humility.
Consider the fate of our Best Stocks for 2014. A year ago, we identified 10 reasonably priced growth companies (average price/earnings ratio: 12) that we believed were poised for big profit growth and even bigger stock gains. Well, we were half right. Since then, our stocks reported average annualized earnings growth of 53%, compared with an average 17% for stocks in the S&P 500 index (SPX). Unfortunately, the market was unimpressed, and the picks returned an average of -2.1%, vs. a 7.8% gain for the S&P in the 12 months ended Nov. 30. It's enough to make us want to march down to Zuccotti Park and pitch a tent.
We still believe in almost all of these stocks. Lennar (LEN), for example, remains a great way to bet on the coming housing rebound. And the huge earnings growth notched by our chemicals and commodities picks -- Agrium (AGU), Dow (DOW), Mosaic (MOS), and Royal Dutch Shell -- can't be ignored by the market forever. As for the most disastrous pick, Entropic (down 44%) (ENTR), it has sunk so low that its bargain price offers a benefit: The maker of chipsets for home-entertainment networks is now a takeover candidate. Despite these miserable results, it should be noted, we've still beaten the S&P 500 in four of the past six years.
This year there's no shortage of fundamentally attractive stocks to choose from -- only a shortage of investors willing to own them. Still reeling from the 2008 collapse, worried about job security, and fearful of the European debt crisis, investors have little appetite for risk. That makes stock picking a minefield today. "There's a significant disconnect in the market between macroeconomic concerns and micro company performance," says Bob Turner, manager of the Turner Large Growth Fund.
Corporate profits are actually quite healthy: S&P earnings growth for 2014 is expected to clock in at 15%. But since 2009, mutual fund investors have pulled $109 billion from equity funds, and lately the selling has been almost indiscriminate. And whether they've been falling or rising, stocks and other assets are moving in lockstep to a degree not seen in decades. In October, for example, the share prices of S&P 500 companies were more aligned with one another than at any point in the past 30 years, according to data from Birinyi Associates.
Great Dividend Stocks In 2014:Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation (ANH)
Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. It invests primarily in the United States agency mortgage-backed securities (agency MBS) guaranteed by the United States government, including pass-through certificates, collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), and other types of MBS, such as mortgage derivative securities and mortgage warehouse participations, as well as in other mortgage related assets. The company's agency MBS portfolio includes adjustable-rate agency MBS, hybrid adjustable-rate agency MBS, fixed-rate Agency MBS, and agency floating-rate CMOs. It also invests in non-agency mortgage-backed securities comprising floating-rate CMOs. The company qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes. As a REIT it would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation was founded in 1997 and is based in Santa Monica, California.Great Dividend Stocks In 2014:Inland Real Estate Corporation (IRC)
Inland Real Estate Corporation, a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the ownership, operation, and development of shopping centers and single-tenant retail properties in the Midwest region of the United States. As of December 31, 2007, the company owned interests in 152 investment properties, comprising 70 neighborhood retail centers totaling approximately 4,397,000 gross leasable square feet; 20 community centers totaling approximately 3,007,000 gross leasable square feet; 28 power centers totaling approximately 4,622,000 gross leasable square feet; 1 lifestyle center totaling approximately 562,000 gross leasable square feet; and 33 single-user properties totaling approximately 2,139,000 gross leasable square feet. Inland Real Estate Corporation has elected to be taxed as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code and would not be subject to federal income tax to the extent it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to stockholders. The company was formed in 1994 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.Great Dividend Stocks In 2014:Lorillard Inc (LO)
Lorillard, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in the United States. The company offers 43 different product offerings under the Newport, Kent, True, Maverick, and Old Gold brand names. Lorillard, Inc. sells its products primarily to wholesale distributors, who in turn service retail outlets, chain store organizations, and government agencies, including the United States? Armed Forces. The company was founded in 1760 and is headquartered in Greensboro, North Carolina.Advisors' Opinion:
By Glenn At 2011-10-6
Lorillard (LO), through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in the United States. The company has paid a rising dividend since becoming a separately traded company in 2008. It yields 5.40% and has a high dividend payout ratio as well.
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