After the market closed yesterday, The Wall Street Journal trumpeted that �the Dow is up 5.6% this month, the fifth best start to October since 1900 and is down just 0.5% for the year.� This, after the Dow had another triple-digit gain and its fifth advance in seven sessions. But how long can it last?
A headline-driven market advanced U.S. stocks yesterday following European stock market gains. The gains were made after assurances that Slovakia will approve the deal despite their earlier rejection of it. And so Europe�s bourses rose as the perception of lower risks in the banking sector diminished.
Yesterday�s low volume of just over 1 billion shares on the Big Board and 532 million on the Nasdaq is hardly a plus for the bulls. But they will take heart in advancers over decliners on the NYSE by 3.8-to-1 and 2.8-to-1 on the Nasdaq — though both are not indicative of a breakout. The day ended with a dramatic 100-point fall from its intraday high (Dow) and a late rise in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) of 1.47 from its low to a close at 31.26 — a number that still smacks of a pullback.
Yesterday�s advance took the Dow into its immediate overhead resistance. But the final sell-off closed the blue-chip index just under the resistance, which begins at 11,550. Note that the stochastic is overbought.
Unlike the Dow, the S&P 500�s intraday high failed to poke into the resistance zone pulling back in the last 90 minutes but closed higher by 0.98%. It too has an overbought stochastic.
The Nasdaq is the only major index to make it into its resistance zone, but only by 5 points. Note the opening gap at 2,587, which could close on a lower opening or attract a late pullback today.
In anticipation of better-than-expected earnings from the financial sector, the group was up 2.7%, leading all other S&P sectors yesterday. And the jump by the Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:XLF) shows it popping above its 50-day moving average (blue line) and, like the indices, skirting the bottom of its next resistance zone at $13 to $13.33.
Conclusion: At 7 a.m., JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) announces its Q3 earnings. Analysts estimate that they should be at 93 cents per share. If JPM exceeds their forecast, barring any other disappointments, the indices could move into the resistance zones on these charts and even rise to the blank space between the upper range of resistance and their respective 200-day moving averages. But if JPM fails to meet estimates, look out below for a pullback to the 50-day moving averages or lower.
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