Inflation Watch: Headline CPI Hotter Than Expected

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI data for July this morning. Year-over-year Headline CPI came in at 3.63%, which the BLS rounds to 3.6%, up 0.07% from 3.56% last month. Year-over year-Core CPI came in at 1.77%, which the BLS rounds to 1.8%, up from 1.64% last month.

Here are excerpts from the BLS summary:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index rebounded from previous declines and rose sharply in July, accounting for about half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The food at home index accelerated in July and also contributed to the increase, as dairy and fruit indexes posted notable increases and five of the six major grocery store food groups rose.

The index for all items less food and energy increased as well, though the 0.2 percent increase was slightly smaller than the two previous months. The shelter index accelerated in July, and the apparel index again increased sharply. In contrast, the index for new vehicles was unchanged after a long string of increases. The index for household furnishings and operations was flat in July as well, and the recreation index declined slightly. More...

The Briefing.com consensus forecast was for a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, well below the 0.5% reported by the BLS.

The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since 1957. The second chart gives a close-up of the two since 2000.


Click for a larger image

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