Celgene: European Decision Not Best Case Scenario, Not Worst Case Either

Celgene (CELG) today announced that a European regulatory committee had issued a positive opinion on its cancer drug Revlimid. Bernstein’s Geoffrey Porges and Wen Shi explain the significance:

Boston Globe via Getty Images

This morning, the European Committee for Medicinal Products (CHMP) announced a positive opinion recommending the expansion of the Revlimid EU label to include front-line usage in multiple myeloma. The new indication reads “Revlimid is indicated for the continuous treatment of adult patients with previously untreated multiple myeloma who are not eligible for transplant.” The positive CHMP opinion is an important step as Celgene looks to significantly expand Revlimid’s market potential in the EU. This is consistent with expectations but is not the best case scenario for Celgene since it excludes the transplant eligible population.  However, the label is not confined to the elderly or any other population subgroup, and therefore is better than the worst case scenario.

Given the market’s reaction, that sounds about right. Shares of Celgene have gained 1.1% to $117.74 at 2:28 p.m. today, just about in line with the gains in other big biotech companies. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) has risen 1% to $428.20, Amgen (AMGN) has advanced 1.1% to $170.34 and Biogen Idec (BIIB) is up 1.5% at $359.11.

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