AAPL: Barclays Mulls 6 Catalysts for ’12, Including TV and Dividend

Barclays Capital’s Ben Reitzes this afternoon offers up his predictions for Apple’s (AAPL) trajectory in the new year.

When Apple announces fiscal Q1 results in January, the report will likely be “very solid,” but the outlook “subdued,” because of a transition to a new iPad model, and because the Euro is weak, he believes.

But Reitzes’s main focus are the six things he think could help the stock:

1. A new iPad in April, with the existing iPad 2 perhaps dropping to $400 for the $16 gigabyte model. It’s also possible the company will offer a 4G wireless version of the iPad next year. “We also believe Apple may consider a 7�� screen tablet for the fall if the Amazon.com (AMZN) Kindle [Fire] takes too much share �C and even use this form factor down the road for a potential remote for a TV.”
2. Greater distribution of the iPhone, especially in China, will lift sales. He estimates 135.8 million iPhone units next year.
3. A new iPhone model, which he calls the “iPhone 5,” should come out around the September quarter, he thinks, perhaps with 4G wireless, perhaps with “near-field communications,” or NFC, for payments.
4. The Mac could switch to chips based on ARM Holdings (ARMH) designs, away from Intel’s (INTC) processors, as Apple tries to distance itself from the new competition in Windows-based “Ultrabook” laptops. ” We believe there is increased evidence that Apple is looking to do more with ARM based processors and probably contemplating putting the processors in non-iPad devices. Apple has a major advantage vs. Windows in terms of time to market and features given its experience with iOS and the iPad.”
5. Reitzes thinks it’s too soon to proclaim an Apple televis ion set coming out next year, given that the iPhone and the iPad are still the focus for the company. But he believes the company’s interested in one. “Combined with iOS software and Siri, the potential interface for a TV or improved Apple TV box could be groundbreaking.”
6. And lastly, Apple might institute a “real policy” for capital use:

Apple is running out of realistic excuses for hoarding so much cash. Apple recently announced that Robert A. Iger, President and CEO of the Walt Disney Company (covered by Anthony DiClemente), joined Apple’s board and is serving on the audit committee. Iger’s appointment is interesting since former CEO Steve Jobs was Disney’s largest shareholder as well as a member of Disney’s Board. Disney has been a strong partner and friend of Apple’s iTunes distribution model. In our opinion, the ?Board also faces an interesting decision over the next year regarding its growing cash hoard (now at over $81 billion with about one third held in the US). We believe Apple has the ability to easily pay a dividend with a significant yield (2-4% range) along with the ability to grow it over time. Furthermore, we believe consistent buybacks over time would be a better option than an accelerated buyback or a special dividend. Iger has shown a propensity for consistent buybacks at Disney as well as more recently �C dividend increases. We believe that Apple’s Board could look at its cash strategy a bit differently over the course of the next year �C and attract more value shareholders.

Reitzes maintains an Overweight rating on Apple shares and a $555 price target.

Apple shares today are up $12.63, or 3%, at $394.84.

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