As I mentioned earlier this morning, analysts are assessing the prospect of a slowdown in Apple‘s (AAPL) next iPhone, which they are expecting to appear later this year and are dubbing the “iPhone 5.”
Canaccord Genuity’s Mike Walkley, who has a Buy rating on Apple shares and a $775 price target, pores over some “channel checks” for how smartphone sales did in May, finding that sales in general picked up from April’s level fro multiple vendors.
But he sees a slowing this quarter:
In the U.S. market, our checks indicated soft smartphone sales due to aging flagship models from Apple and Samsung somewhat offset by strong demand for but limited supply of new HTC One series smartphones. With the Samsung Galaxy S III smartphones and HTC One Series just starting to ramp volume into the channel combined with our expectations for the iPhone 5 to launch in October, we anticipate more H2-weighted 2012 smartphone sales than normal seasonal trends.
While Apple’s iPhone 4S remained the best-selling phone in the U.S. in May, and sales internationally were helped by “some channels increasing promotions and carriers increasing rebates,” nevertheless, “we anticipate Apple will gradually lose smartphone share during the summer or until the iPhone 5 launches in October.”
Walkley is projecting 27 million iPhone units this quarter, down from 35 million last quarter. He sees that slipping to 24.3 million units in the September quarter.
But iPhone sales should bounce back in a big way in the fiscal Q1 ending in December, he thinks:
We believe global demand for a new iPhone 5 could exceed our December quarter 50M unit estimate due to Apple�s expanding distribution base and large installed customer base. If the iPhone 5 has a larger screen and an overall differentiated form factor from the iPhone 4 and 4S, then we believe Apple�s loyal customer base will upgrade to the new iPhone despite some carriers imposing additional upgrade fees and potentially changing data plans with the iPhone 5.
Meantime, ThinkEquity’s Mark McKechnie, who has a Buy rating on Apple and a $700 price target, cut his iPhone unit estimate for this quarter, though is number is still higher than Walkley’s.
McKechnie cut from 35 million to 29.5 million, and cut his September-quarter estimate from 34.4 million to 28 million. His December-quarter estimate rises from 40 million to 42 million units.
McKechnie also raised his iPad estimates, however, to 14 million from 12 million this quarter, and to 15 million from 12.6 million next quarter.
All that prompted McKechnie to cut his fiscal 2012 estimate from $164.2 billion to $158.99 billion in revenue, and from $48.45 per share in profit to $47.
McKechnie also cut his estimates for Qualcomm (QCOM), an Apple chip supplier, based on the revised iPhone unit projections.
Apple shares today are down $2.79, or half a percent at $561.50.
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