Here’s what could wake up stocks this week

Coca-Cola The Coca-Cola Co. is one of several consumer companies to report results next week.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) � Will the next catalyst for the stock market please step forward?

After U.S. stocks� best January in 15 months, stocks spent the first full week of February in a tight zigzag around five-year highs. Investors sat on the sidelines, they treaded water, they lacked conviction � in other words, they used up a lot of Wall Street�s favorite clich�s for not doing much at all.

Click to Play Week ahead: State of Union, G-20

President Obama will give his State of the Union address on Tuesday, and later in the week, G-20 leaders convene in Moscow. Photo: AP

Volume was low, capped by the lowest volume day of the year Friday as many on Wall Street headed out early ahead of a commute-clogging winter storm. The S&P 500 SPX and the Nasdaq Composite COMP ended the week higher for the sixth week in a row, though they gained less than 1% each. Read more on U.S. stocks Friday.

Read more on Winter Storm Nemo stranding travelers.

The week ahead doesn�t promise much in the way of catalysts. But there are a few factors that could shake things up.

1. The bond market

The 10-year 10_YEAR Treasury note yield is one to watch. The benchmark note�s yield popped above the 2% level in late January as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA headed back to 14,000. The rise in the yield, alongside mutual fund flow data showing investors shifting into stock funds, ushered in a chorus of speculation that the bond rally is finally bursting. Read more on the bond bears.

A sustained break above 2% on the 10-year yield �is a big �if�,� said Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson & Co. But if it were to happen �that would signal a short-term shift in sentiment vis a vis fixed income.� It�s not clear, he added, whether that rise would be viewed as a sign people are headed more aggressively toward stocks�or as an inflationary sign, and a headwind for the economy.

Treasury will auction $72 billion in bonds and notes next week, including a $24 billion auction of 10-year notes on Wednesday.

2. The consumer

Investors will get more insight into consumers� ability to prop up the economic recovery with two data releases � retail sales for January and consumer sentiment for early February.

Here, the data could be a drag. Economists expect little or no growth in retail sales last month, larger due the expiration of a payroll tax break that shrank paychecks; rising gasoline prices; and delayed tax refunds.

More hope may come from companies. Coca-Cola Co. KO , Fossil Inc. FOSL , Reynolds American Inc. RAI , Lorillard Inc. LO , PepsiCo Inc. PEP and Kraft Foods Group Inc. KRFT are scheduled to report quarterly reports in the next week.

Strength from consumer companies has been a bright spot in the nearly-finished earnings season. Consumer discretionary and consumer staples companies have posted 5.9% and 4.3% earnings growth for the fourth quarter, outstripping the S&P 500�s 3% rise, according to FactSet.

Earnings from Ralph Lauren Corp. RL and Wyndham Worldwide Corp. WYN were standouts in the past week, driving shares higher.

�Absent something geopolitical, we�ll need some outlier from an earnings perspective to send markets one way or another,� said Scott Armiger, manager of the $500 million Christiana Trust at Wilmington Savings Fund Society.

3. Europe

The euro zone�s financial situation drove stock action for part of the past week as a Spanish political scandal, and the possibility Italy�s former prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, could win re-election, sent stocks to their worst day of the year. The euro zone�s teetering economy, and the ability forpolicy maker�s� to fix it, could come to the fore again as the Group of 20 meets in Moscow.

Click to Play Currency wars at the G-20

Currency wars are likely to dominate the G-20 meeting in Moscow even if most countries will try not to make any explicit accusations.

In a possible nod to these issues, on Thursday European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stressed the accommodative stance of the ECB, sending the euro EURUSD tumbling. Read more on euro tumbling after Draghi's verbal intervention.

4. The State of the Union

Late Tuesday, President Barack Obama will give his State of the Union address.

A key interest for markets will be what he says about the sequester, or looming budget cuts. If Congress can�t agree on a way to avoid the sequester, $85 billion in cuts to defense and domestic programs would begin on March 1. Such severe austerity would provide a negative shock to markets. But the negotiations to avoid it could also create some sect losers, say oil and gas companies whose subsidies could be at ris Read farm cash, defense may be on Democrats' chopping block.

�We do not think the market is adequately discounting the risk that sequestration cuts will stick,� said Barclays bond analysts led by Ajay Rajadhyaksha in research distributed Friday. �Even if the cuts are enforced, more aggressive deficit reduction measures will be needed if the U.S. is to stabilize its medium-term debt profile,� he said.