Jefferies & Co.’s Peter Misek, who follows hardware makers that include Apple (AAPL), Dell (DELL), and BlackBerry (BBRY), today released his latest survey of tablet, smartphone and PC sales, in which he writes that there’s a risk to his iPhone estimates this quarter, but his estimates for BlackBerry’s sales are looking up.
Misek is keeping his estimate for Apple to sell 37.5 million iPhones this quarter, but is concerned about the chatter out of Asia about build rates for the device:
Builds for total CQ1 iPhone have been revised down from 30M-35M to 20M-25M. Suppliers seem to be prepping for iPhone 5S builds to start in March, and Apple is adjusting inventory levels, which we are still attempting to quantify.
Misek thinks slowing of sales for both Apple and Samsung Electronics (005930KS) is happening because of customers expecting new model introductions this spring. He notes as well that “Nokia (NOK) is finally getting some buzz.”
Misek’s estimate for sales of the BlackBerry Z10, introduced a few weeks ago, is 500,000 units this quarter, above recent skeptical figures from Canaccord Genuity’s Mike Walkley and Pacific Crest’s James Faucette, both of whom estimate about 300,000 units.
And Misek has higher estimates for the coming quarters:
Initial Z10 sales have not been as bad as many feared. Recent launches in France, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait have gone well. In the UK 20%+ of Carphone Warehouse phones are out of stock based on Tuesday night checks. We raise Feb Q estimates from $2.5B/$(0.42) to $2.8B/ $(0.34) after including 500K BB10 shipments but remain slightly below St $2.9B/$(0.33). We note consensus estimates have decreased over the last six weeks. We remain well above St for the May Q and Aug Q (we estimate 4M BB10 sales at a $600 ASP and 30% GM in each quarter) but reiterate that it is not just about the phone. We continue to see software opportunities in mobile device management and BYOD to drive value.
Misek notes sales of PC laptops had their first year-over-year unit sales decline in the consumer market ever in Q4, with only discounts helping to sustain sales in January.
As for tablets, he has little detail, except to say that “white-box brands drove recent growth.”
In advance of the Mobile World Congress event coming next week in Barcelona, Spain, the biggest mobile trade show of the year, Misek offers some clipped observations on things to look for:
No Galaxy S4; expected mid-March in NYC event. Expect Tizen handsets and mid-tier Galaxy upgrades. Samsung Galaxy Note 8.0. Tablets with ranges of 7�, 8�, and 10�; also expect a monster tablet much bigger than 10�. Samsung for Enterprise (SAFE) will be re-announced; however, with little in the way of real MDM capability and at best a small investment in a private start- up we expect very little to excite on this front. Nokia: 920 Lumia II: lighter, thinner, better version. Lumia EOS: 40MP+ camera phone. Huawei: Potential 8-core monsters competing with Galaxy S4 and Note 2. Lenovo: Push into the mainstream will continue. ZTE: New Mozilla OS handset(s). Grand Memo: a Note II competitor.
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