Raymond James’s Tavis McCourt this morning reiterates a Strong Buy rating on shares of Apple (AAPL) writing that his analysis of the scenario for the company’s iPhone suggests the company may have sold more than 34 million units last quarter, the fiscal Q2 ended in March, despite ominous signs yesterday from Verizon Communications (VZ) and Qualcomm (QCOM).
To recap, Qualcomm offered a fiscal Q3 forecast on Wednesday night that suggested to some that it is seeing a pause in its chipset sales that go into the iPhone in advance of the debut of an iPhone 5.
That could be taken to mean iPhone sales are slowing, in the meantime.
Likewise, Verizon yesterday reported Q1 sales that saw a decline of 24% in iPhone activations from Q4′s level, which some also took as evidence iPhone sales may be slowing.
McCourt writes that Qualcomm’s chip forecast — 152 million “MSM” modem chipsets this quarter — actually imply a June-quarter iPhone shipment rate of 32 million, which would be ahead of what he’s been modeling as 31 million.
And as to Verizon, even with a down fiscal Q2, the numbers could still be high, he thinks:
We analyze the Verizon data, making the assumptions that iPhone sell-through at every U.S. carrier shrinks by 24% in 1Q (same as Verizon), international is down 7% (same as last year despite more international iPhone launches this year), and channel builds to the low end of the normal 3- to 4-week range, iPhone shipments would still be over 34 million in the March quarter, ahead of our 33 million estimate.
It’s hard to know for sure, he writes, given most iPhone sales are overseas, and there are inventory fluctuations, but “we see no reason to get too concerned at this point based on the Qualcomm and Verizon data points.”
McCourt opines the 47% dip in sales of phone using Google‘s (GOOG) Android software, and in Research in Motion‘s (RIMM)�Blackberry, at Verizon “is early evidence of pent-up demand for the iPhone 5, as it appears customers [�] are holding back on smartphone sales.”
McCourt’s note follows a similarly bullish note from Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster yesterday afternoon that basically dismissed the Qualcomm and Verizon concerns and reaffirmed the iPhone outlook.
Apple shares today closed down $14.46, or 2.5%, at $572.98. Dow Jones’s data experts say this was the worst five-day dollar drop in the stock’s history, with a decline of $32.25, which equals a 5.3% decline. The stock, moreover, lost 9.6% in the last two weeks of trading, or $56.5 billion in market capitalization.
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