The Dow is almost in the same position it was last week at this time; sitting close to its 200-day moving average. The market still needs to prove, with some conviction, which way it wants to go.
Some stocks have already shown us which way they want to go, and until they prove otherwise, there is no reason for you as a trader to change your outlook on those stocks.
One example of a stock that��s giving us a clear indication of where it��s headed is First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR), which has been in a strong downtrend for a long time. And last week, RBC Capital Markets downgraded it to ��Sector Perform�� from ��Outperform�� and cut its price target to $56 (from $150) — 10 bucks above where it currently trades.
However, there��s still some downside left in FSLR before it has a chance of getting to its (heavily discounted) target. Sometimes the rationale for a trade idea is simply to prove that the stock has reversed its course. Until FSLR does this, there is no reason not to believe that the stock cannot go any lower.
A nice trigger point to enter this trade idea is below Friday��s low, which was $44.20. This would give confirmation that the stock may continue to head lower, since it will have completely erased Friday��s positive day.
The trade: With FSLR trading here at $46.09, buy the FSLR Dec 46 Puts for $4 or less.
The strategy: The long put strategy is pretty straightforward. The trade profits when the stock falls and the put premium increases as the FSLR option moves farther and farther in-the-money (ITM). Maximum profit is almost unlimited only because FSLR can only fall to $0 (which is highly unlikely) and the maximum loss is $4 (the amount you spent to purchase the put) if FSLR finishes at or above $46 at December expiration.
A nice target for FSLR is the $40 area for the simple reason that is a nice round n! umber. I f the entry is triggered, consider exiting the position above Friday��s high, which was $46.63. That might be the proof needed to end the stock��s bearish run, but there��s no reason not to make some returns on its downside action in the meantime.
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